First round bye - overrated?

[Dan Darragh]

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

[Rampage]

Home field is becoming overrated. It’s started to effect lines in Vegas this season as well. The bye week is brutal in the playoffs because you play a team that’s coming off the high of winning their first game, playoff jitters are gone and you’re coming in rusty after not playing in two weeks.

[BuffaloBillyG]

This year it was. Yes.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

[buffblue]

11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Not enough evidence to suggest this yet. Historically #1 seeds have a much stronger probability of reaching the Super Bowl. I would take the bye every single time

[Punching Bag]

11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

[Warcodered]

I'd say less of the bye being overrated as the teams this year.

[Nextmanup]

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

[BillsFan130]

I think it's the first time since 2010 both 1 seeds got knocked out after the bye.

 

I am taking the bye and home field advantage all day

Edited January 23, 2022 by BillsFan130

[BritBill]

It will be interesting to see the stats in 5-10 years time when we have a decent amount data from when it dropped to just one team getting a bye. 

[Mikie2times]

I say this based on no data to back it up, but I think once a team has reached a Super Bowl recently the bye really can help. As an example it helped New England for a really long time. It could/would help a team like KC right now as well as the Bucs had they got it. I always thought it really helped the Bills in the 90's. If you really are the best team, and you have experience, I think it helps a ton. As for the rest of them, it's a wash.   

Edited January 23, 2022 by KzooMike

[stinky finger]

Apparently - given both precincts have been eliminated.

[Beast]

Nope. Not overrated.

 

I'll take having to win two games to get to the SB, and having both at home, over having to win three.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Beast

[Wayne Cubed]

Nah, both these teams were beatable.

How about the “Look out for the running teams, come playoff time”?

[Sierra Foothills]

Data is our friend (so is science btw):

 

"Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds."

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404

 

Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

[QLBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. 

[Tuco]

44 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

They already do get paid for bye weeks in the playoffs. Other than that, great post.

[tomur67]

I just think that some teams just have bad games after the byes.    The Bills had their worst game of the season after the bye against the Jags.  Just hate to think what happened in that game.

[LeGOATski]

Yeah, I couldn't care less about the bye. The team just needs to be playing at its best going into the playoffs.

[Boatdrinks]

The bye itself may not be overrated. The teams that had them were. I wondered going into the playoffs if this was a year where the bye mattered the least. No team was dominant and a team that gets hot at the right time can win it all. 

[Arkady Renko]

8 minutes ago, tomur67 said:

I just think that some teams just have bad games after the byes.    The Bills had their worst game of the season after the bye against the Jags.  Just hate to think what happened in that game.

 

They played the Dolphins at home after the bye.  

[Dan Darragh]

52 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

Thanks for this nugget.

[tomur67]

4 minutes ago, Arkady Renko said:

 

They played the Dolphins at home after the bye.  

you're right. the Jags game was two weeks after the bye.

[FireChans]

26 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. 

Not particularly.

 

They aren't physical. They haven't been a physical team for years.

 

The 49ers downhill rushing attack and physical front 7 has been their kryptonite for years. This team is the same team that had that Raheem Mostert 200 yard game 2 years ago. GB tried to get bulkier and more punishing with Dillon, but he was hurt.

 

I picked the 49ers to win. If Jimmy G played even decently, they blow out GB. They aren't built for the postseason.

[78thealltimegreat]

Home field in general is overrated to many teams can prepare for crowd noise with silent counts and being on the road there really are no distractions like family or friends total concentration on the game

[JimmyNoodles]

You get a week off, play at home, and play one less game, so the answer is "no," it's not overrated.  If the Bills lose tonight, we'll all be moaning about blowing home field with the schedule we had.    

[Success]

The Packers and Titans weren't good enough to take advantage of it.

 

If you go into the playoffs w/ the best team and have a bye week, it should always be an advantage.  This year, there is just a lot of parity.  I don't think anyone would say the Titans were the best in the AFC.  The Packers were a little closer to earning that, but the NFC is pretty stacked this year.

 

[jethro_tull]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

possibly because the teams that get the bye are the top seeds?  

it just seems like playing through and maintaining momentum is a way to avoid coming out flat after the bye.  

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I'd say less of the bye being overrated as the teams this year.

Before this week's playoffs started I told someone that I didn't think Tennessee would get in the Super Bowl for this reason:  Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill.    
Three franchise QBs and Ryan "3 picks" Tannehill.  

 

I don't have an explanation of what happened in GB, other than if you look at recent head to head records SF has GB's number.  

[gonzo1105]

The biggest problem that I see with home field advantage is that fans no longer know when to get loud. 
 

I’ll explain in the 80s and 90s when home field was huge, there was no technology for calling plays in. With the advances in QB helmet microphones, the OC can call a play with a kill and the mic doesn’t cut out until 15 seconds left on the play clock. 
 

This means that fans should be at their loudest right after the play ends and not after teams break the huddle. By the time a team breaks the huddle, they know the play and the kill play in the huddle, and with the invention of silent counts, it really minimizes home crowd advantage. Throw in that the game has become pass happy, weather does play a factor especially in cold weather cities

[T master]

I totally agree ! When i saw how both teams played in their respective games i thought i am so glad the Bills didn't get the bye i like you think it had a lot to do with them being stale or out of rhythm .

 

With the Bills seemingly hitting some kind of stride i don't want that to stop in any way i think if they can keep it going they can ride it all the way to a SB !! 

 

GO BILLS !!! 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Not a good thing, these 'byes'.  They make one forget fundamentals...11 players on the field.

 

[FTLBillsfan]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

This whole season was weird. How many times did one of the best teams in the league go up against one of the worst teams only to lose the game. 

[harryS]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Data is our friend (so is science btw):

 

"Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds."

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404

 

Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

Thank you.  As you point out, historically you're basically printing money by betting on bye teams to cover the spread in the divisional round.

 

But it's worth monitoring the trend over the next few years.  As the NFL has become more finesse-oriented, the value of the bye might diminish because it becomes increasingly important for your skill players to stay in rhythm by playing a game than having the week off.  (Green Bay and Tennessee sure didn't look in rhythm yesterday.)  Whereas when the NFL was a much more physical sport, the rest and recuperation was much more important for bruised bodies, especially for the linemen, LBs, and RBs in the running game.

[streetkings01]

I made a thread about this earlier in the season……#1 seed is completely overrated.

34 minutes ago, Success said:

The Packers and Titans weren't good enough to take advantage of it.

 

If you go into the playoffs w/ the best team and have a bye week, it should always be an advantage.  This year, there is just a lot of parity.  I don't think anyone would say the Titans were the best in the AFC.  The Packers were a little closer to earning that, but the NFC is pretty stacked this year.

 

NFC is stacked? It’s the Packers, Bucs, Rams and everyone else. I’d argue from top to bottom the AFC is a much tougher conference.

[billsfan89]

This was a odd playoff field. The Titans were an over seeded team and the Packers ran into bad weather and choked. Last year the 1 seed in the AFC made the Super Bowl and the 1 seed in the NFC went to the Conference title game. More often than not the bye teams will likely be doing well. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 1/23/2022 at 9:52 AM, JimmyNoodles said:

You get a week off, play at home, and play one less game, so the answer is "no," it's not overrated.  If the Bills lose tonight, we'll all be moaning about blowing home field with the schedule we had.    

You're right.

 

I think most of us would agree that playing this game in Orchard Park would have made all the difference in the world.

[without a drought]

A 2nd round bye was what they needed.

[PatsFanNH]

On 1/23/2022 at 11:10 AM, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

No First round bye isn’t over rated. This is the first year in over 10 years where both top seeds lost in the division round. Why? Well Tannahill shoes he truly sucks even with elite talent around him and single handed my lost them the game. Two GB has Aaron Rogers the most in clutch QB ever in the playoffs.. 

[harryS]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

You're right.

 

I think most of us would agree that playing this game in Orchard Park would have made all the difference in the world.

 

I don't but I suspect Bills fans will rally around it.  "This time we get them at home" will be next season's version of "Our defense is built to beat the Chiefs" (lol)  Then we'll get them at home and lose worse.  It happened to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who also rallied around getting homefield advantage changing their playoff fortunes and then have lost at home two seasons in a row now.

 

to be clear, we had them beat on the road before 13 seconds of mental ######ation.

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

No First round bye isn’t over rated. This is the first year in over 10 years where both top seeds lost in the division round. Why? Well Tannahill shoes he truly sucks even with elite talent around him and single handed my lost them the game. Two GB has Aaron Rogers the most in clutch QB ever in the playoffs.. 

 

so basically the quality of the team matters, not homefield?  you undermine your own argument