Jets game more crucial than I thought

[Dr. K]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

So what you meant to say was if the Bills beat the Falcons and lose to the Jets, there's a 100% chance that there's at most a 3% chance of the Bills missing the playoffs?

I'm sure that's exactly what I should have meant to say if I had meant to say what you think I should have said. How could I have been so purblind?

[WotAGuy]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

So what you meant to say was if the Bills beat the Falcons and lose to the Jets, there's a 100% chance that there's at most a 3% chance of the Bills missing the playoffs?

You, like others, seem to be missing his phrase about there being several scenarios where the Bills would 100% miss the playoffs with a loss to the Jets. He did not infer the Bills would 100% miss the playoffs with a loss to the Jets.
 

I had no problem understanding what he wrote in the OP. But then again, I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night. 

[uninja]

37 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

How can you possibly know this? This is the first year of 17 game season.  They also now allow a third wild card team in playoffs.  The Bears got in at 8-8 last year, the first year of 3 WC teams per conference.

Just an eye test, “you are what your record says you are” thing. Sure you made it to the dance, but you really gonna go all the way? Exceptions exist, but overwhelmingly those teams get crushed at some point in the playoffs. 

[Motorin']

6 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

You, like others, seem to be missing his phrase about there being several scenarios where the Bills would 100% miss the playoffs with a loss to the Jets. He did not infer the Bills would 100% miss the playoffs with a loss to the Jets.
 

I had no problem understanding what he wrote in the OP. But then again, I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night. 

 

Or I'm busting his chops. 

[reddogblitz]

I don't know a the rest of yall but I'm taking this Jets game very seriously.  I was at the final game in 2016 when the Fitz led Jets rolled into town at 10-5 and just needed a win over the Bills to get in.  We treated them bad and sent them home with their draught in tact.

 

All they have left is spoiler duty.  They will play very tough I suspect.

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

Or I'm busting his chops. 

Careful, he may have a ******* degree in dentistry. 

[Motorin']

Just now, reddogblitz said:

I don't know a the rest of yall but I'm taking this Jets game very seriously.  I was at the final game in 2016 when the Fitz led Jets rolled into town at 10-5 and just needed a win over the Bills to get in.  We treated them bad and sent them home with their draught in tact.

 

All they have left is spoiler duty.  They will play very tough I suspect.

 

It's a playoff game for us. 

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

I don't know a the rest of yall but I'm taking this Jets game very seriously.  I was at the final game in 2016 when the Fitz led Jets rolled into town at 10-5 and just needed a win over the Bills to get in.  We treated them bad and sent them home with their draught in tact.

 

All they have left is spoiler duty.  They will play very tough I suspect.

 

I live here in NJ and many of my family, friends, co-workers are Jets fans. A few of them have already mentioned to me they hope the Jets can play spoiler vs the Bills.  The fans are aware of it.

[reddogblitz]

4 minutes ago, uninja said:

Just an eye test, “you are what your record says you are” thing. Sure you made it to the dance, but you really gonna go all the way? Exceptions exist, but overwhelmingly those teams get crushed at some point in the playoffs. 

 

All teams except 1 lose in the playoffs.

[LeGOATski]

If the Bills new whats good for em, they lose the nonconference game to the Falcos

 

Sadly they probly fail like always!

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

If the Bills new whats good for em, they lose the nonconference game to the Falcos

 

Sadly they probly fail like always!

Losing the non conference game gives them a 100% chance of making the playoffs according to the TBD playoff machine. 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Dr. K said:

You didn't read what I wrote. This scenario depends on the Ravens and Chargers both winning out. If they don't, the Bills are guaranteed the playoffs. 

 

Wait, you said we are 100% out if we lose, but all kinds of other things have to happen. That does not sound like 100% to me. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

What “should” happen this week in the AFC Playoff bound teams:

 

1) Bills beat Falcons at Home

2) Cheatriots beat Jags at Home

3) Chiefs beat Bungles @ Cinci

4) Titans beat Fish at Home

5) Dolts beat Raiders at Home.

6) Rams beat Ravens @ Baltimore.

7) Chargers beat Broncos at Home.

 

What could easily happen:

 

1) Clowns finish off Squealers @ Pittsburgh.

 

All done. See ya next week! 😂👍🎉🏈🦬

 

[Let's Go Buffalo]

It would be great to win the Division at Home!

[WotAGuy]

13 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Wait, you said we are 100% out if we lose, but all kinds of other things have to happen. That does not sound like 100% to me. 

The 100% is contingent on the other things happening.  He was on a playoff calculator, so was looking at those few scenarios where a Bills’ loss would be guaranteed to eliminate them. 

[Dr. K]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Wait, you said we are 100% out if we lose, but all kinds of other things have to happen. That does not sound like 100% to me. 

Here's another way to say it:

 

IF...

 

1) the Chargers and the Ravens win out

2) the Patriots beat the Dolphins 

3) the Colts and Bengals win at least one of their last two games.

 

THEN:

 

The Bills losing to the Jets puts them out of the playoffs 100% of the time, no matter if they beat the Falcons and no matter what else happens to any other teams in any other games.

 

I hope that makes it clear. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Dr. K

[HIT BY SPIKES]

We are not going to lose to either of those teams at home given how we are currently playing.

[HardyBoy]

3 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I have forgotten more math than you have ever known. I have a ***** degree in physics, troll. 

 

Very cool combination!

 

Writing a paper or analyzing a piece of literature is basically just algebra/calculus in terms of building the right formula.

[hemma]

4 hours ago, Dr. K said:

For pity's sake, the first condition I name is, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

Their they’re now.

[Green Lightning]

There was only a 3% possibility I would post on this thread until I understood that there were several scenarios that would make it a 100% chance I wouldn't.

[Jester]

4 hours ago, Dr. K said:

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

Don’t even think that. We’re beating the dirty birds AND the jests! 

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, Dr. K said:

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

We will lose control of the AFC East/.    Pats can win the division with 2 wins and 1 loss from us.

[Big Blitz]

These idiots are going to play Moore in week 18

 

 

 

I know if you're healthy you should be play.

 

But he's a rookie cornerstone for them in a lost season that was put on IR 3 weeks ago with a significant quad strain and was just on the Covid list. 

 

For me I wouldn't want to see him near the field until August.  

[Ramza86]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

These idiots are going to play Moore in week 18

 

 

 

I know if you're healthy you should be play.

 

But he's a rookie cornerstone for them in a lost season that was put on IR 3 weeks ago with a significant quad strain and was just on the Covid list. 

 

For me I wouldn't want to see him near the field until August.  

 

 

Me neither. Hes on my dynasty roster. Let him stay healthy.

[BillsfaninSB]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

These idiots are going to play Moore in week 18

 

 

 

I know if you're healthy you should be play.

 

But he's a rookie cornerstone for them in a lost season that was put on IR 3 weeks ago with a significant quad strain and was just on the Covid list. 

 

For me I wouldn't want to see him near the field until August.  

I get your point but most rookies need reps.  Especially wide receivers.  If I was a Jets fan I would want him out there getting more experience. 

[ehfeuh57]

where is the DUH reaction

[Joe Ferguson]

If they lose to any of these two bottom feeder teams, then they don't deserve to get in the playoffs.

[loyal2dagame]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:46 PM, Logic said:

I feel like a more simple way to say this is that as long as the Bills win one of their two remaining games, there's a 97% chance they make the playoffs, according to fivethirtyeight.com playoff caluclator.

So yes, technically they could miss the playoffs if they lose one of the next two. It would, however, be extremely statistically unlikely. 

It was statically unlikely that the Jags would beat the Bills.

Anything can happen. 

I think we're on a 8 game winning streak. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by loyal2dagame

[without a drought]

The OP makes an incorrect statement in his first paragraph, then walks it back in the second paragraph. But why stop there when you still have some insults and arrogance to throw around.

[clayboy54]

On 12/28/2021 at 4:05 PM, Let's Go Buffalo said:

It would be great to win the Division at Home!

But, would you still go to the airport?

[JohnnyBuffalo]

I love if, when, and maybe scenarios.    They are 100% accurate when the if happens and maybe does not as well as when maybe happens and if does also.  
 

But I do know that it is a lot of fun when you go online and there is a topic that maybe controversial but if all the folks can discuss it civilly they may all enjoy themselves!

 

I am exhausted but can’t sleep….Go Bills!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:13 PM, 17islongenough said:

No. 

 

The Bills can clinch this week. 

 

Bills win and either Ravens lose or Oak and Chargers both lose

 

I can see the rams beating the ravens

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:19 PM, Dr. K said:

For pity's sake, the first condition I name is, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

 

Hablas  espanol? 

[Jeffbigalls]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:13 PM, Dr. K said:

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

No you can't 

[Greg S]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:13 PM, Dr. K said:

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

 

Not if we want the division. Have to beat the Falcons and Jets. Unless their is a major upset the Pats are beating the Jags. The Dolphins game is a toss up but why take a chance. The Bills control their own destiny so they need to get two wins and win the division in B2B years.

[Dr. K]

53 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Not if we want the division. Have to beat the Falcons and Jets. Unless their is a major upset the Pats are beating the Jags. The Dolphins game is a toss up but why take a chance. The Bills control their own destiny so they need to get two wins and win the division in B2B years.

Yes, of course. I want the Bills to win out and take the division, have at least one home playoff game. 

 

What surprised me was that, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, they could still completely miss the playoffs if those rather simple conditions I outlined came to pass.

[Codyny13]

Yep and if my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bike. What if 🤷🏼‍♂️

[RobbRiddick]

Jets and Falcons are bad but there have been so many upsets this season that I'm taking nothing for granted. The jets in particular will be treating it like their super bowl, wanting to end the season on a huge high. 

[djp14150]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:09 PM, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

 

if they WL ….

 

they lose most tiebreakers outside their division.  Baltimore is a strength of victory tiebreaker that is undecided right now with Baltimore having a slight lead.

 

they can win division if BE lose to Miami.

 

they can get a WC if

 

1 BALT L one

2. INDY don't go WW

3. LV/LAC don’t go WW. They play each other week 18

 

if they W and either

(a) BAL L

or

(b)both Vegas and LAC L

 

if BUffalo loses to Atlanta…and Baltimore W they have the tiebreaker by conference record, on them.  BUF woukd have edge innLAC by common games tiebreaker.  It turns into a W and in game.

 

 

 

then buffalo clinches WC

 

[FilthyBeast]

Jets are a horrid team top to bottom and if there was a chance for letdown or upset it would be against the Falcons this week since they are still alive for the playoffs.

 

Either way this team cannot treat last week like it was their SB and go into another funk like what happened against the Chiefs or missing the playoffs altogether is still a possibility.