Jets game more crucial than I thought

[Dr. K]

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

[Motorin']

Our playoffs started last week. 

[YattaOkasan]

Yeah it should align with all the 2-1 scenarios people drew up last week. We need to win out to hold the division.  But we should be able to do that

[billsbackto81]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

So you're telling us that even if we finish 10-7 we can still miss the postseason? That's why I don't mess with those scenario machines!

[17islongenough]

No. 

 

The Bills can clinch this week. 

 

Bills win and either Ravens lose or Oak and Chargers both lose

[Dr. K]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

Yeah it should align with all the 2-1 scenarios people drew up last week. We need to win out to hold the division.  But we should be able to do that

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

[uninja]

1 minute ago, billsbackto81 said:

So you're telling us that even if we finish 10-7 we can still miss the postseason? That's why I don't mess with those scenario machines!

10-7 is the new 9-7. Some years it’s good enough, most years it’s not. 

[Dr. K]

Just now, 17islongenough said:

No. 

 

The Bills can clinch this week. 

 

Bills win and either Ravens lose or Oak and Chargers both lose

You didn't read what I wrote. This scenario depends on the Ravens and Chargers both winning out. If they don't, the Bills are guaranteed the playoffs. 

[Brennan Huff]

We control our own destiny. Just win out so we don’t have worry about all that other *****

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

We could afford to lose to the Falcons but we damn well better beat the Jets. 

Sure we can more afford to lose to the falcons. But still gotta win out. 

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, 17islongenough said:

No. 

 

The Bills can clinch this week. 

 

Bills win and either Ravens lose or Oak and Chargers both lose

 

I was just going to post that if the Bills beat Falcons and Rams beat Ravens and Bills are in.

[Dr. K]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I was just going to post that if the Bills beat Falcons and Rams beat Ravens and Bills are in.

For pity's sake, the first condition I name is, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Dr. K

[BillsfaninSB]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Our playoffs started last week. 

I would of course prefer the Bills to have more wins but I’m intrigued about how this season will play out.  Past two years there was not a desperate need to win the last two games.

 

I hope this sense of urgency pays dividends in the playoffs. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

For pity's sake, my first sentence says, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

 

I understand but I believe the Bills and Rams win this weekend.

 

Also, yes we all know (if you are on the calculators like I am) there is a 4% chance of the Bills missing the playoffs if they

lose to the Jets and beat the Falcons.

[Mark Vader]

All of these games have been and continue to be crucial

[Matt_In_NH]

If they lose another game they will have 7 losses, which is no guarantee of playoffs for sure.  At this point, if they can't win these two home games against weak opponents what would we have anyway?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If they lose to either the Jets or Falcons at home with division on the line then they don't deserve the playoffs.

[JoshAllin]

Just rooting for the Rams to beat the ravens which is a high possibility, that's the biggest game for the bills I think. 

 

Edit: they need to clinch division after playoffs as well

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by motorj

[DasNootz]

15 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

Don't let the results dictate if your decision making process was sound...  

[Patrick Duffy]

14 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

While that scenario is possible, it's a very slim possibility. A whole lot has to happen for this. imo even considering if (god forbid) Allen can't play against Jets, I feel good about Mitch playing well enough to beat Jets. 

[TH3]

30 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

Stop playing with yourself😁

[WotAGuy]

23 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

For pity's sake, the first condition I name is, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

 

It should be “forty year’s”

[TBBills]

33 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

Put the crack pipe and scenario machine down and take a chill pill.

[dave mcbride]

35 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

The Falcons and Jets are respectively 31st and 32nd in defensive DVOA. I expect dominating wins.

[Logic]

35 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

I feel like a more simple way to say this is that as long as the Bills win one of their two remaining games, there's a 97% chance they make the playoffs, according to fivethirtyeight.com playoff caluclator.

So yes, technically they could miss the playoffs if they lose one of the next two. It would, however, be extremely statistically unlikely. 

[reddogblitz]

41 minutes ago, uninja said:

10-7 is the new 9-7. Some years it’s good enough, most years it’s not. 

 

How can you possibly know this? This is the first year of 17 game season.  They also now allow a third wild card team in playoffs.  The Bears got in at 8-8 last year, the first year of 3 WC teams per conference.

Edited December 28, 2021 by reddogblitz

[Big Turk]

39 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

 

The Ravens might not win another game...they are just decimated right now.

[PatsFanNH]

39 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

Of course it’s crucial. Your in a tie for first place so any loss by the Bills and a win by NE takes you out of first place. Both teams hold their playoff destiny in their own hands. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

40 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Playing with the online playoff calculators, it seems there are several scenarios where, even if the Bills beat the Falcons, if they lose their final game to the Jets, they are 100% going to miss the playoffs. 

 

Of course a number of other things must happen for that to occur, but they are not impossible. The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games. and the Patriots have to beat the Dolphins. The Colts, Bengals, and Patriots need to at least split their last two, but as long as the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if the Bills lose to the Jets they are out. 

Re title your thread, the Jets Games MAY be crucial .  You have a bunch if scenarios that COULD happen to make it "100% certain" the Bills miss the playoff.  IMO, the odds of all these things happening is  very remote.

[Casey D]

30 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

For pity's sake, the first condition I name is, "The Ravens and Chargers have to win both of their remaining games."

 

Nobody can read anymore. I taught English for more than forty years. Why did I bother? 

Perhaps because you wrote if the Bills beat Atlanta but lose to the Jets, "they are 100% going to miss the playoffs."  But, of course, that original declaratory sentence is completely wrong.  If they beat Atlanta and lose to the Jets, there is only about a 10% chance they will not make the playoffs because of the conditions precedent you explain after the initial 100% declaration.  Not the clearest prose. 

[Motorin']

7 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Perhaps because you wrote if the Bills beat Atlanta but lose to the Jets, "they are 100% going to miss the playoffs."  But, of course, that original declaratory sentence is completely wrong.  If they beat Atlanta and lose to the Jets, there is only about a 10% chance they will not make the playoffs because of the conditions precedent you explain after the initial 100% declaration.  Not the clearest prose. 

 

He taught English, not math. Cut the man some slack.

[Dr. K]

13 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Perhaps because you wrote if the Bills beat Atlanta but lose to the Jets, "they are 100% going to miss the playoffs."  But, of course, that original declaratory sentence is completely wrong.  If they beat Atlanta and lose to the Jets, there is only about a 10% chance they will not make the playoffs because of the conditions precedent you explain after the initial 100% declaration.  Not the clearest prose. 

The phrase you quote is preceded by "there are several scenarios where ...", which makes the phrase you quote conditional.

 

It's really classic for you to misquote me and then tell me I'm completely wrong. Don't be an ass. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Dr. K

[Greg S]

Is Jackson back yet? If not then I think the Rams definitely beat the Ravens. Without Wentz the Raiders chances improved against the Colts. As for the Chargers they should win over the Broncos at home, but as we saw with them last week nothing is certain. The Bills should handle business at home against the Falcons. 

[Dr. K]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

He taught English, not math. Cut the man some slack.

I have forgotten more math than you have ever known. I have a ***** degree in physics, troll. 

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

The phrase you quote is preceded by "there are several scenarios where ...", which makes what comes the phrase you quote conditional.

 

It's really classic for you to misquote me and then tell me I'm completely wrong. Don't be an ass. 

I am not trying to be difficult, but you challenged the reading skills of people on this board, and all I am pointing out is that your writing is not clear.  I understand what you are trying to say, but given your prose and the title of the topic, I am merely suggesting you were less than clear.  No big deal.  Sorry if I was being a jerk.

[Dr. K]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

I am not trying to be difficult, but you challenged the reading skills of people on this board, and all I am pointing out is that your writing is not clear.  I understand what you are trying to say, but given your prose and the title of the topic, I am merely suggesting you were less than clear.  No big deal.  Sorry if I was being a jerk.

Apology accepted. Peace.

 

[reddogblitz]

32 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If they lose to either the Jets or Falcons at home with division on the line then they don't deserve the playoffs.

 

Depends on what the other teams do.  You deserve to make the playoffs when you make them.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Depends on what the other teams do.  You deserve to make the playoffs when you make them.

 

I think they clinch a playoff spot this weekend. But they will still need that Jets game for the division. No way the Pats are losing to the Jags at home.

[WotAGuy]

8 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

 

It's really classic for you to misquote me and then tell me I'm completely wrong. Don't be an ass. 

Wait, we aren’t supposed to do that??  That’s SOP round here. 

[Motorin']

12 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

I have forgotten more math than you have ever known. I have a ***** degree in physics, troll. 

 

So what you meant to say was if the Bills beat the Falcons and lose to the Jets, there's a 100% chance that there's at most a 3% chance of the Bills missing the playoffs?