The Singletary Conundrum.

[Eastport bills]

18 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

Definitely an NFL quality back, but not tough, fast or clutch enough for our team. Moss,on the other hand, is a between the tackles hard-nosed grinder that will be a keeper that we have to get a roadgrader guard to open holes for.

[MarkyMannn]

I would class him as a JAG, and that's OK.  I doubt he sees a second contract with the Bills after 2022

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, Utah John said:

He was better then.  Most RBs don't stay good for long.

Naaa, just doesn't fit your narrative. Further Zack Moss has a lower YPC by .1 and 1.1 yards vs Singletary in 2020 and 2021, over the period where we actually did start playing USFL ball. Please don't counter with red zone carries, it's not, already checked. Difference of 6 carries inside the 5 yard line both years combined. I would also find it unusual that Motor could get 35+ carries consistently at Florida Atlantic, then his rookie year average 5.1, then fatigue drops it to 5.0 this year? No pattern to your pattern. 

 

I'm not a prime club member of the the motor fan club. He has his issues, but what he is and isn't needs to be clear. He is elusive, agile, and fast in short areas. He is not somebody who can survive poor line play. He breaks very few tackles and is not a viable HR threat. Our line since he has been here has been elite bat at run blocking. Only an elite back would make a difference with elite bad run blocking line and most people on here aren't willing to spend the jack for an elite back. All things considered, if it was pick one, I would rather the money go to the line. It's more likely we correct that then land one of 3-5 guys in the NFL.    

Edited November 17, 2021 by KzooMike

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I'm over Moss (didn't like the draft pick much in the first place).  Moss breaks tackles but he is too slow to the hole.  He is an effort guy that doesn't have the NFL skills needed to be consistently good.  Give Singletary five more carries a game and give the rest to Brieda.  Moss should not touch the ball until the fourth quarter when the defense is tired and we need to grind out some first downs to burn clock.  

[Big Turk]

21 hours ago, Best Williams Available said:

I think Brieda’s performance shows Devin is just another guy. Motor was touted as a guy who could get a lot of yards after first contact (in college he excelled at this) and at the NFL level he hasn’t shown it. If he could blow through holes with speed or jook a guy out of his jock then this could be forgiven. But he can’t so we shouldn’t.

 

He jukes plenty of dudes out of their jocks, the problem is he doesn't have the speed to get outside and the interior blocking is trash, so there is always a guy in his face he needs to avoid in the backfield before he can get to the LOS

[MrSarcasm]

On 11/15/2021 at 9:37 PM, Best Williams Available said:

I think Brieda’s performance shows Devin is just another guy. Motor was touted as a guy who could get a lot of yards after first contact (in college he excelled at this) and at the NFL level he hasn’t shown it. If he could blow through holes with speed or jook a guy out of his jock then this could be forgiven. But he can’t so we shouldn’t.

Enough already. Brieda saw 8 snaps against the lowly Jets and everyone is super high on him now. Its kind of similar to the Cam Newton returning hype he threw the ball 4 times against an injury riddled Arizona team. Slow your roll.

[colin]

he can do a couple things, namely pass block IMO, but his lack of hands and fumbling puts him in the replace/upgrade slot for me.

 

his first season and this season he's shown some get up and go, but i don't understand how you can have an RB on a top team who fumbles a bunch, it's just not a path to victory long term imo.

[hondo in seattle]

It's not like Motor has no skill but his good YPC stat is a result of running against defenses that are focused on the pass.

 

Find a season where OJ ran for 5 YPC and look at the highlights.  You'll see a guy juking and dodging and running thru the arm tackles of a defense that's hell-bent on just one thing: Stopping the Juice. 

If Singletary isn't a JAG, he's not much more.   

[Rochesterfan]

22 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Please stop with the late round RB stuff.  The sweet spot is late 1st or early-mid 2nd round.  There's no reason to expect to find the guy below that.  We have 2 3rd round RBs who aren't cutting it. Go further down & the odds decrease of finding a franchise back.  A franchise back is the final piece to an unstoppable offense.  OG & RB 1st 2 rounds in either order.  It's time for us to stop cheaping out on those 2 positions.  It's too bad Ford is a bust but it happens. If the Bills have to trade up into the 40s in the 2nd round to get their RB, do it!  

 

By the 3rd round the best RBs are all but gone.  Sure you can find a late round gem every now & then, but they're the exception, not the rule.  Here is the draft status of the NFL top 5 rushers so far in 2021:

D. Henry: 2nd pick 45

J. Taylor 2nd 41

N. Chubb 2nd 35

E. Elliott 1st 4

D. Cook 2nd 41

 

 

I just think this is wrong.  After the top couple of guys that are mostly 2nd round picks - the next 20+ backs all have between 500-600 yards and are all interchangeable.

 

There are 1st round guys to UDFAs in that group with lots of guys picked 3rd round and later.

 

Take a guy like Taylor and put him on the Bills - it might make a difference it might not as our line is not as good at run blocking as Indy.

 

What I do know is I would not waste a 1st round pick on that position.  If I moved back into mid second maybe.  After the top couple where 4 of the 5 are on run first teams - every other running back looks pretty much the same - small differences in style.  
 

Rather keep trying different 3rd-6th round backs and use higher picks on premium positions.

 

 

[Nineforty]

i like singletary!  but what the heck was that fumble where he just dropped it without contact?!? was he switching hands? i don't remember the play exactly other than he just dropped it lol..been a while since I had seen that in a game. 

[GunnerBill]

On 11/16/2021 at 11:57 AM, JGMcD2 said:

When things were going really bad with our run game, part of the reason we even gained yards at all was because Devin would make a guy miss in the backfield… he jukes a guy out on like every run. 
 

What games are you watching? 
 

I don’t think he’s an elite back by any means, but he’s not as horrible as everyone makes him sound. 

 

My view is last year he played poorly. I think there were holes there (not loads of them, but some) and he was dancing when he should have been hitting. I think he has run much, much better this year. There are not many runs in 2021 where I think Devin left yards on the table. I still think he is a change of pace / time share back rather than a lead back, but the Bills split carries anyway so that is not so much of an issue. The thing that has been an issue this year is the fumbles. He has put the ball on the floor 5 times in 9 games and that is just way too many. It is costing him carries too because in critical situations where ball security matters as much as yards the Bills staff clearly feels safer with Moss carrying the ball. 

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I just think this is wrong.  After the top couple of guys that are mostly 2nd round picks - the next 20+ backs all have between 500-600 yards and are all interchangeable.

 

There are 1st round guys to UDFAs in that group with lots of guys picked 3rd round and later.

 

Take a guy like Taylor and put him on the Bills - it might make a difference it might not as our line is not as good at run blocking as Indy.

 

What I do know is I would not waste a 1st round pick on that position.  If I moved back into mid second maybe.  After the top couple where 4 of the 5 are on run first teams - every other running back looks pretty much the same - small differences in style.  
 

Rather keep trying different 3rd-6th round backs and use higher picks on premium positions.

 

 

 

Jonathan Taylor would make difference on any team in the NFL. He is a stud. I'm not saying he would lead the league behind our line or in our scheme but he would still be a huge upgrade. Stud. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/15/2021 at 10:24 PM, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

The inconsistency makes him fairly average imo. Also, seems like running out of shotgun all the time does not do any of the RBs favors. 

[Lane Meyer K12]

Runningback by committee is great for keeping all the backs out of rhythm. It works as a good change of pace in certain situations, otherwise it should be used sparingly. Twenty carries for a single back should be the standard minimum for a lead back and all other carries can be spreads amongst the others.  

[hemma]

He’s sure no Frank Gore.

We were pumped when Frank broke off a 6 yarder.

 

Those were the days.  

Lower than whale shite expectations that were rarely exceeded.

Edited November 18, 2021 by hemma

[billsfan_34]

On 11/15/2021 at 10:24 PM, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

Good players have ice in their veins, especially during critical moments- Devin does not have that along with speed/power. 

[Mr. WEO]

so does this mean he's NOT going to get 1000 yds rushing this season??

16 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Enough already. Brieda saw 8 snaps against the lowly Jets and everyone is super high on him now. Its kind of similar to the Cam Newton returning hype he threw the ball 4 times against an injury riddled Arizona team. Slow your roll.

 

Everyone is super high on the whole Offense now, which saw all of its snaps against the lowly Jets.  

 

What's you point?

[Nelius]

Where's the recent post with the data about RB's falling off a cliff after 1800 carries or so? Might take Motor about two decades to reach that, so there's that

 

Honestly I'm a fan, his YPC is healthy and actually creeping up this year and he looks quicker to me this year. He's clocking 5 yards a carry right now, after 10 games, which is hard to dismiss. It's all very subtle and quiet but he does seem to be improving a bit each year. His offseason training is insane, he's improved his blocking. I have a sinking feeling that he may be the odd man out at some point because it's RB and we can just keep restocking the cupboard, but he's statistically good right now despite never really getting a chance to lead the charge. I'd prefer to keep him in the mix.

[Gugny]

13 hours ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Runningback by committee is great for keeping all the backs out of rhythm. It works as a good change of pace in certain situations, otherwise it should be used sparingly. Twenty carries for a single back should be the standard minimum for a lead back and all other carries can be spreads amongst the others.  

 

Ask the Titans about how giving one RB the load works out.

[1ManRaid]

These threads make me sad.  Trying to convince people on this board that Devin is being held back by the O-line and running out of the damned shotgun is like trying to convince a hardcore southern Baptist that God isn't real.

 

OP also needs to learn correlation does not equal causation.  Lack of first downs can easily be explained by the downs and distances he is being run.  The running game coming alive the game they play Breida can easily be explained by them finally having Allen under center for once instead of every run being a draw play.  I could go on.

[Fixxxer]

FWIW

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Think he's good. It's the OL that pukes on its shoes when it comes to run blocking.

 

[DCofNC]

He would be a decent third down back if he could catch, the reality is Beane loves to do the exact opposite of his usual strategy of drafting the best athletes when it comes to RB.  These guys aren’t gifted enough to be anything more than a replacement in the NFL.  Breida had great speed, but has never done anything, he looked like the best back by a mile last week, that says all you need to know.

[MrSarcasm]

8 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Everyone is super high on the whole Offense now, which saw all of its snaps against the lowly Jets.  

 

What's you point?

That is my point. I'm surprised people don't have whiplash with all the constant head jerking.

Team plays poorly- 'we are the paper tigers'

Team wins by 30- 'we are going to the Super Bowl'

 

How about people quit defining a team by one game? Buffalo has played 10 games and by now we should have a general idea of what they are.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

That is my point. I'm surprised people don't have whiplash with all the constant head jerking.

Team plays poorly- 'we are the paper tigers'

Team wins by 30- 'we are going to the Super Bowl'

 

How about people quit defining a team by one game? Buffalo has played 10 games and by now we should have a general idea of what they are.

 

If we played 10 games then we should definitely fire someone on the analytics side cos how the hell are we 6-3?!

[Gugny]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If we played 10 games then we should definitely fire someone on the analytics side cos how the hell are we 6-3?!

 

Perhaps the NFL has implemented a curve of sorts and the Jags game was dropped.

[34-78-83]

This thread drags painfully on... Its been 3 years. The Bills CLEARLY have a strategy that on their team in their vision, the RB position is going to be handled by a couple of capable backs on their rookie contracts and drafted in the middle rounds. They are going to only need said backs to handle a running game that does JUST ENOUGH to create balance for their passing game. That's ALL they are looking for. If they so happen to find a speed to the edge guy for cheap in FA (Breida) they'll use him as part of the plan or in the mix as well. Singletary, even with his faults of not being speedy and occasional fumbling issues (note this year that 2 of his fumbles are on pass receptions as he is literally stepping out of bounds) is the best of the 3 backs on this team and deserves to get the most carries of the 3. Much of fan's frustration with him has proven to be misguided based on avg yards before contact being one of the lowest in the league in Buffalo. That's almost entirely on the O-line. It's been displayed on plenty of film breakdowns AND statistically. With the team now finally trying to utilize some O-line lateral motion and get Brieda in there and out to the edge occasionally, here's hoping they've found the right balance to make this COMPLIMENTARY RUNNING GAME work. That is all they intend to have here, and Singletary is piece that works just fine into that plan. There is no "Singletary Conundrum" as it were.

[Dopey]

I just hate worrying about a fumble whenever he runs with it. He also seems to drop too many passes. Hate to say lack of concentration cuz I'm not in his head, but drops and fumbles are holding him back. IMO. Hard to trust him with the ball. 

[ChicagoRic]

26 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I just hate worrying about a fumble whenever he runs with it. He also seems to drop too many passes. Hate to say lack of concentration cuz I'm not in his head, but drops and fumbles are holding him back. IMO. Hard to trust him with the ball. 

Yes, same for me.  Numbers aside, it just seems like Singletary does not have the "it factor".  It's hard to explain, but in crucial moments he can't be counted on to make a spark or a statement play.  The 2nd effort.  The "angry run".   All too often it's "Singletary, open in the flat.....and he drops the ball" or "It's 3rd and 2, here's Singletary off the left side......and it looks like he's a foot short".  Hard to quantify. 

 

[MrSarcasm]

This is ridiculous. Singletary is averaging 5ypc running behind a leaky line and having to start 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage in shotgun. Give me a break. These people complaining about Singletary are the same ones that were clamoring for LeVeon Bell 2 years ago.

 

Statistically speaking what do you want to see from Singletary? 8 ypc? You people are crazy.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, MrSarcasm said:

This is ridiculous. Singletary is averaging 5ypc running behind a leaky line and having to start 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage in shotgun. Give me a break. These people complaining about Singletary are the same ones that were clamoring for LeVeon Bell 2 years ago.

 

Statistically speaking what do you want to see from Singletary? 8 ypc? You people are crazy.

 

Personally I want him to stop putting the ball on the ground. Other than that the way he has played this year I have been happy with. You can't have 5 fumbles in 9 games. That leads the league among non-Quarterbacks. He also leads the Bills in drops. They are the things holding him back. He is running much better than last year, hit the hole fast, dance at the second level that is much more what he was as a rookie than what he was in 2020. 

[freddyjj]

I think Motor will be better if we do more under center, heavy packages and play action like last game.  

 

Per the chart above the guy I wanted in 2019 draft was Tony Pollard and his metrics there and YPC and TDs bear that out.  Ideal back for a platoon role.

[MrSarcasm]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I want him to stop putting the ball on the ground. Other than that the way he has played this year I have been happy with. You can't have 5 fumbles in 9 games. That leads the league among non-Quarterbacks. He also leads the Bills in drops. They are the things holding him back. He is running much better than last year, hit the hole fast, dance at the second level that is much more what he was as a rookie than what he was in 2020. 

Why not bring up QBs? Is it because Allen also has 5?

 

He can't get better if he doesn't play. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Why not bring up QBs? Is it because Allen also has 5?

 

He can't get better if he doesn't play. 

 

Nope, it is because the top 9 fumblers in the league so far are all QBs and QBs touch the ball the most, so that makes some sort of sense. Motor leads the league in fumbles for running backs despite being 33rd in the number of carries. You can't put the ball on the floor that often. Like I said, his decisiveness, his decision making, his first step.... all of those are much improved on last year and I have loved that. But he has to hold onto the ball, both when it's thrown to him, but particularly when he runs it. 

[LABILLBACKER]

He struggles catching the ball. Last week he fumbled with no one near him. Yes the 5 ypc is very good but he doesn't break tackles like he did his rookie year.  I don't know what his future will be.  The organization clearly needs a better OL including the ability to block. Devin would benefit from less RPO runs from a stopped position. I wish we could take the skills of all 3 RB's and put them  in 1 back.

[Scott7975]

18 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Ask the Titans about how giving one RB the load works out.

 

There is giving one RB the load then there is what the Titans do.  Its not quite the same.  He was getting almost 30 carries a game.

[ndirish1978]

The question with Singletary is not yards per carry, it's can he gain 2-3 yards when we need him to. I'm not convinced he can because I haven't seen him do it consistently.

[BillsFanForever19]

He's Just a Guy. People have been screaming for the past two years it's all on the Offensive Line and that he's got a good average. But the average is skewed by garbage time runs. When it counts, it seems like he's always being stuffed. And even with a "bad line" - with as pass heavy as we are, there should be runs to be made with most defenders playing the pass.

 

The fact is defenses don't fear him. They don't respect him. They play him with 4 Lineman, almost never loading the box, and he still can't get the job done. Beane went into the offseason not blaming him and not blaming the Line. Bringing back the same personnel on the Line and the Backfield. And nothing's changed. We're nowhere in the running game.

[Thurman#1]

23 hours ago, DCofNC said:

He would be a decent third down back if he could catch, the reality is Beane loves to do the exact opposite of his usual strategy of drafting the best athletes when it comes to RB.  These guys aren’t gifted enough to be anything more than a replacement in the NFL.  Breida had great speed, but has never done anything, he looked like the best back by a mile last week, that says all you need to know.

 

 

He is a decent third down back.

 

He can catch.

 

As for replacements, that's just flat-out nonsense.

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

He's Just a Guy. People have been screaming for the past two years it's all on the Offensive Line and that he's got a good average. But the average is skewed by garbage time runs. When it counts, it seems like he's always being stuffed. And even with a "bad line" - with as pass heavy as we are, there should be runs to be made with most defenders playing the pass.

 

The fact is defenses don't fear him. They don't respect him. They play him with 4 Lineman, almost never loading the box, and he still can't get the job done. Beane went into the offseason not blaming him and not blaming the Line. Bringing back the same personnel on the Line and the Backfield. And nothing's changed. We're nowhere in the running game.

 

 

Doesn't make sense.

 

Garbage time runs increase your number of runs. They don't increase your YPA.

 

More, know what his run stats are this year in the fourth quarter when up or down by eight points or more? He's 0 for 0 in those cases. Doesn't have a single run in that kind of situation. So, nonsense.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/players/devin-singletary-singlde01/splits

 

Defenses absolutely respect him. They play him with the same amounts of linemen that they have with Moss and Breida. That's a result of having Josh Allen in the backfield. Do they respect him as an elite back? No nor a top ten guy. But as a solid RB who can easily make you miss? Yeah, absolutely.