The Edmunds Report - Week 5, Bills v. Chefs, 10/10/21

[Freddie's Dead]

The highly anticipated Week 5 Bills v. Chefs edition of The Edmunds Report is here (had to wait for the NFL Network replay because some idiot forgot to extend the DVR recording after the lightning delay).  I will state what I see on a play, then assign a point system -1, 0, +1, and keep a running total.  I'll ignore plays where he's not involved and only look at coverage if he's onscreen (I don't have the All-22).  I'll also flag plays for the haterz so they can skip the rest.  Based on feedback, I'll also be looking at plays where 49 is rushing the passer to determine his relative effectiveness there.  Let's go to the tape.

 

Chefs 1st possession

2nd and 10, KC 43 - 49 drops shallow, PM INC to Hardman (+1,+1) 

3rd and 10, KC 43 - 49 covers RB in flat, PM scrambles the other way for 10 yards (0,+1)

1st and 10, BUF 47 - 49 drops to cover Kelce, PM scrambles and throws OB (+1,+2)

2nd and 10, BUF 47 - Middle run, 49 blocked 8 yards downfield away from run (HATERZ PLAY), 5 yard gain (-1,+1) 

3rd and 1, BUF 38 - Middle run, 49 late to hole (HATERZ PLAY), 1st down (-1,0)

1st and 10, BUF 36 - 49 drops, PM scrambles for 3 yards (+1,+1)

1st and 5, BUF 23 (WTF??  After the Chefs were holding, Jesus) - 49 drops, PM complete to BBQ Pringle, 49 makes tackle for 6 yard gain and 1st down (+1,+2) Good play by 49, not his fault the refs ***** up the spot and down/distance.  McD going ape#### on sidelines...

1st and 10, BUF 17 - 49 drops, PM pulls it down, scrambles for 3 (+1,+3)

3rd and 12, BUF 22 - 49 covers RB in the flat, PM INC to Tyreek (+1,+4)

 

Chefs 2nd possession

1st and 10, KC 20 - CEH up the gut, 49 blocked 6 yards downfield (HATERZ PLAY), makes tackle for 6 yard gain (-1,+3)

2nd and 4, KC 26 - 49 drops, PM scrambles 4 yards for a 1st down (0,+3)

2nd and 16, KC 39 - Chiefs go off-tackle, 49 slow to recognize, gets tangled up in bodies (HATERZ PLAY), 11 yard run (-1,+2)

1st and 10, BUF 36 - 49 drops, PM completes to RB 1 McKinnon in flat, 49 makes tackle for 9 yard gain (0,+2)

2nd and 2, BUF 10 - CEH middle run, 49 blocked (HATERZ PLAY), assists on tackle for 5 yard gain (-1,+1)

1st and Goal, BUF 5 - 49 drops, PM runs around, then slides at the 6 for the GROOT sack! (+1,+2)

 

Chefs 3rd possession

49 just dropped into coverage for these plays, no real impact, then KC ended up punting

 

Chefs 4th possession

1st and 10, KC 40 - 49 drops into deep zone, PM scrambles for 23 yards (-1,+1)

2nd and 10, BUF 37 - 49 drops to cover Tyreek, PM throws it into the ground (+1,+2)

4th and 5, BUF 32 - 49 drops and covers RB 1, PM lobs it up INC, huge 4th down stop (+1,+3)

 

Chefs 5th possession

2nd and 20, BUF 44 - 49 drops, covers Kelce, PM completes to Kelce, who slips away from 49's tackle (HATERZ PLAY), and gets OB to stop clock after an 8 yard gain (-1,+2)

 

First half observations

 

When 49 dropped into coverage, he was excellent.  Against the run, not so much.  He is not a run-stuffing thumper who will beat the runner to hole.  He's also overpowered by bigger OL, so lots of HATERZ PLAYs in the first half.  He's earning his money in coverage, because they rarely throw his way, and when they do, it's for small yardage (he gave up two completions for 14 yards).   

 

Chefs 6th possession

2nd and 11, KC 19 - 49 drops and covers Tyreek, PM dumps to Kelce for 11 yards and 1st down (0,+2)

2nd and 2, KC 41 - Pitch to CEH, 49 runs him down and abuses him for a 2 yard TFL (+1,+3)

3rd and 4, KC 39 - 49 drops, PM chucks the ball at 49's feet, rear naked choke on Addison declined for 4th down (+1,+4)

 

Chefs 7th possession

1st and 10, KC 8 - 49 drops into coverage, PM throws it away, camera shows 49 blanketing Kelce downfield (+1,+5)

2nd and 10, KC 8 - 49 drops, CEH screen, 49 chases and assists on tackle after 11 yard gain, CEH racked up (0,+5) 

1st and 10, KC 19 - 49 drops, quick slant to 17, 49 cleans up the tackle by Taron Johnson (0,+5)

2nd and 5, KC 24 - 49 drops on Kelce, PM throws ball into dirt INC to WR (+1,+6)

3rd and 5, KC 24 - 49 covers back in the flat, PM throws to Tyreek, off his hands, and "DR. JEKYLL AND" MICAH HYDE WITH THE PICK 6!!!! (+1,+7)

 

Chefs 8th possession

1st and 10, KC 25 - 49 drops to cover WR, PM rolls out, nowhere to go, lobs ball OB (+1,+8)

1st and 10, KC 47 - 49 drops, covers 81, complete to Kelce, 49 creams Kelce after 11 yard gain (0,+8)

1st and 10, BUF 42 - KC run, 49 blocked 5 yards downfield (HATERZ PLAY), sheds block to make tackle for 9 yard gain (-1,+7)

2nd and 10, BUF 25 - 49 drops, PM complete to Tyreek in seam (HATERZ PLAY) just behind 49 for a 15 yard gain and first down (-1,+6)

 

Chefs 9th possession

 

1st and 10, KC 48 - 49 drops, PM complete to RB in flat, breaks 49's tackle, but cleaned up by Taron Johnson for 6 yard gain (0,+6)

2nd and 5, BUF 10 - 49 drops, PM complete to RB in flat at BUF 9, 49 is 7-8 yards away at the catch, closes to make tackle at BUF 6, just short of 1st down (+1,+7) 

3rd and inches, BUF 6 - Middle run, 49 makes tackle at 1.5 yard line (HATERZ PLAY), first down KC (-1,+6)

1st and goal, BUF 1.5 - Quick flip out to Kelce, who walks in for the TD (HATERZ PLAY), 49 blocked at point of attack (-1,+5)

 

Chefs 10th possession

1st and 10, KC 23 - 49 drops, covers Tyreek, PM throws safety valve into the ground (+1,+6)

2nd and 10, KC 23 - 49 drops, covers Tyreek, PM completes to Tyreek, jukes 49 (HATERZ PLAY) and runs OB for 8 yard gain (-1,+5)

1st and 10, BUF 15 - 49 covers RB in the flat, PM pulls it down, slides at LOS (+1,+6)

 

Conclusions

1.  49 continues to show that his coverage skills are excellent.  Mahomes had nowhere to go all night long, while the Bills completely neutralized Kelce and Tyreek.  49 gave up three pass completions for 29 yards, by my count.

2.  Haterz will continue to cling to the fact that he is not the prototypical run-stuffing MLB.  Most of the HATERZ PLAYS I flagged this week were 49 being blocked downfield.  But when he does get there, he destroys whatever he's tackling.  Just ask CEH.

3.  49 did not rush the passer at all, as the Bills did not blitz in this game.  

4.  Biggest Bills road win in my 58-year lifetime, and 49 was a huge part of it.  I'm not bothered that he's not a run-stuffer.  It's a passing league, which makes it so much more important to cover WRs, TEs, and RBs.  The Titians and Henry will be a stiff test next week. 

5.  I'm glad I started doing this tape breakdown, because I understand 49's game so much better than I did at the beginning of the season. 

 

49 grades overall:

Squeelers - B+ (6 HATERZ PLAYs)

Fish - INC (DVR #### the bed)

WTF's - B- (7 HATERZ PLAYs)

Erlers - A+ (2 HATERZ PLAYs)

Chefs - A- (11 HATERZ PLAYs)

Edited October 13, 2021 by Freddie's Dead

[BruceVilanch]

Look at Mahomes passing chart, he avoided the middle of the field for a reason.

 

[Freddie's Dead]

29 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

Look at Mahomes passing chart, he avoided the middle of the field for a reason.

 

 

I was just thinking that "Predator" would be a good nickname for Edmunds.

 

 

[TBBills]

He is 2 for 2 with Milano out this time he had a bigger load to carry and did it successfully.  

 

Another on the Titans and we can roll into the bye week knowing Edmunds is for real.

 

He is still extremely young and this year it's all coming together.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Is Tremaine Edmunds actually getting good? In the same season that Star Lotulelei decided to get good!? This is some kind of season.

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

Eye test was good the last couple of games.

[Not at the table Karlos]

3 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

I was just thinking that "Predator" would be a good nickname for Edmunds.

 

 

Lol just now? He's been called it since college. 

[ProcessTruster]

When Rex Ryan, Reggie Ragland, Shaq Lawson and their 3-4 defense left town, the 2 big thumper inside LBs scheme went with them.   Get used to it.   LBs in McD's defense are like big strong safeties in the old NFL world.   Cover, blitz on occasion , fill your gap on run plays and then go cover some more.   Gang tackle, make them go the length of the field.  Not many 3 and outs.   Keeping a fresh aggressive front 4 is key to this defense.   Allows nearly 7 in coverage, good idea in todays NFL.  Derrick Henry might make some good yardage against this D, but he is the exception to the rule in todays NFL.   Old school Butkus fans won't like it, but it works.  

[DJB]

I'm going to wait and see what a more credible source like PFF has to say about this

[H2o]

It's pretty awesome to see things starting to click mentally for Tremaine this year. Perfect example was when the Chiefs tried to get that play on the outside off of their LT. Edmunds read it perfectly, took a couple of steps to his right, saw the correct angle, and kicked in that closing burst to make the TFL. He's been seeing things on the field a lot better this year, diagnosing and going in for the tackle. This week against Tennessee will be a true test for him. Last year, though playing with an injured shoulder, I remember him being out of position a lot in that game. Hopefully his great play continues against a more run heavy offense. 

[Big Turk]

The refs didn't screw up the down and distance on the hold. Holding is measured by where the foul happened and the hold occurred 15 yards down field by their WR..I think Robinson(number 11) if I am not mistaken.

 

Therefore 15-10 = 5

 

Doesn't happen that often but I have seen it a bunch of times over the years in these situations, almost always when a WR is holding down field.

 

Also regarding Henry...the Bills have done a very nice job against him the last 2 games...he has rushed 39 times for only 135 yards in those 2 games, an average of under 3.5 YPC

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by Big Turk

[First Round Bust]

best analysis ever, people pay for excellent analysis like this, thanks so much for your time and effort on a very worthy topic that needs clarification which you hit the bullseye !

[BuffaloBill]

Run stuffing MLB’s are now dinosaurs. They went the way of drafting RB’s in the first round. 

[TPS]

On a related note, one of the most interesting plays of the night for me was the one where you saw Star literally try to hold his double-team to prevent the C (I believe) from getting to Edmunds, then Star made the tackle.  While you always hear about his unsung role, this was a vivid display of it, and getting on the stat sheet.

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Lol just now? He's been called it since college. 

 

Interesting, never heard that.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Run stuffing MLB’s are now dinosaurs. They went the way of drafting RB’s in the first round. 

Yeah, Milano is more that kinda guy in this defense anyway as the SLB they ask him to play closer to the line. Edmunds gets more of the intermediate zone or outside zone assignments. On the rare occasion they do ask him to run blitz or man the RB, he does just fine. When they recognize run he'sgap sound. I think he'll always struggle with leverage against stout OLs because of his height. But he's learned to manage those blocks better while keeping his eyes on the RB.

[Freddie's Dead]

37 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

The refs didn't screw up the down and distance on the hold. Holding is measured by where the foul happened and the hold occurred 15 yards down field by their WR..I think Robinson(number 11) if I am not mistaken.

 

Therefore 15-10 = 5

 

Doesn't happen that often but I have seen it a bunch of times over the years in these situations, almost always when a WR is holding down field.

 

Also regarding Henry...the Bills have done a very nice job against him the last 2 games...he has rushed 39 times for only 135 yards in those 2 games, an average of under 3.5 YPC

 

 

We're going to quibble over where the hold occurred.  They both went to the ground at 15 yards upfield, but the hold happened before that.

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

We're going to quibble over where the hold occurred.  They both went to the ground at 15 yards upfield, but the hold happened before that.

 

Either way it was downfield, meaning it wouldn't have been a 1st and 20

[Cvanvol7]

Is he seriously only 23? 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Is Tremaine Edmunds actually getting good? In the same season that Star Lotulelei decided to get good!? This is some kind of season.

 

 

Nope. He's not getting good. He's getting even better. Same with Lotulelei.

 

And yeah, that's a wonderful thing.

[Brennan Huff]

Edmunds haters reading this be like….

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

Thanks for the breakdown.  He looked pretty good out there from the stands.  Like you said, vs the run, not so good, but his positioning and size makes him a formidable road block for the QB.  Sitting in the end zone, I could see the passing lanes.   In this game, we wasn’t manipulated by Mahomes’ eyes and was sticking to his assignment.  Well done. Very good game be the pass from my viewpoint.  
 

edit: and thanks for putting in the work for this @Freddie's Dead 👍🏻

Edited October 13, 2021 by NewEra

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

It's pretty awesome to see things starting to click mentally for Tremaine this year. Perfect example was when the Chiefs tried to get that play on the outside off of their LT. Edmunds read it perfectly, took a couple of steps to his right, saw the correct angle, and kicked in that closing burst to make the TFL. He's been seeing things on the field a lot better this year, diagnosing and going in for the tackle. This week against Tennessee will be a true test for him. Last year, though playing with an injured shoulder, I remember him being out of position a lot in that game. Hopefully his great play continues against a more run heavy offense. 

 

 

That TFL got us out of our chairs.   He's been inconsistent and often hesitant on his choices/routes to the ball in his first 3 seasons.   The actual TFL numbers aren't that important........the lack of them last season in particular was just an indication of the inefficiencies in his game.   His performance in the last couple weeks has been exceptional.

[Freddie's Dead]

27 minutes ago, Cvanvol7 said:

Is he seriously only 23? 

 

He was 19 when he was drafted.

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

Eye test was good the last couple of games.

agreed, no ones wins every play but he has definitely had fewer WTF plays the last 2 games where he is blocked 10 yards downfield or chooses the blocked gap instead of where the hole is. 

 

I will sign my Predator apology form now. 

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for the breakdown.  He looked pretty good out there from the stands.  Like you said, vs the run, not so good, but his positioning and size makes him a formidable road block for the QB.  Sitting in the end zone, I could see the passing lanes.   In this game, we wasn’t manipulated by Mahomes’ eyes and was sticking to his assignment.  Well done. Very good game be the pass from my viewpoint.  
 

edit: and thanks for putting in the work for this @Freddie's Dead 👍🏻

agree on thanks for putting in the work. this is an awesome review and i look forward to it every week!

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by Robert Paulson

[BillnutinHouston]

I can accept the conclusion that Edmunds is very good in coverage and not great against the run.  But that does concern me with regard to the Titans offense. 

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, BillnutinHouston said:

I can accept the conclusion that Edmunds is very good in coverage and not great against the run.  But that does concern me with regard to the Titans offense. 

 

As good as Edmunds has been the last few weeks I would agree that this game is a true litmus test to see how he fares against the best RB in the NFL.

 

If Henry goes off the Titans will not only stay in this game but have a great chance of winning.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Edmunds haters apologists reading this be like….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It made no sense so I FIFY. 

 

Hate to waste a good cat GIF.

[Beast]

People that rag on this kid clearly are thinking of traditional MLB play.  In today's passing game, Edmunds may be the best at his position.

[Rochesterfan]

44 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

I can accept the conclusion that Edmunds is very good in coverage and not great against the run.  But that does concern me with regard to the Titans offense. 

 

Why - we have played Tennessee the last 2 years and we’ve stopped the run.

 

We also have stopped other run heavy teams like Baltimore at a good clip.

 

The issue is when we gameplan to stop the pass and a team runs against the weak front.  Then we struggle - see KC last year.

 

If we gameplan to stop Henry like previous years - I would expect they will slow him down again.

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, Beast said:

People that rag on this kid clearly are thinking of traditional MLB play.  In today's passing game, Edmunds may be the best at his position.

 

It's so true and I have a hard time evaluating him.  One thing I have done is think about the prime responsibility that the coaches want from him.

It really seems it's a pass first run second decision he is making often which is a reverse of the norm.  I do think he is hiding his intentions pre snap

better than in the past.

 

In the long view IF Edmunds gives up a couple of yards more on a handful of run plays that yardage is nothing compared to the yardage which

can be made on a handful of pass plays IF Edmunds doesn't do his job adequately.  It's very hard to see plays that COULD of went his

direction from the opposing QBs options that Edmunds stymied. 

 

That is why I trust what our coaching staff sees in him way above my limited knowledge.  The only thing left is how much higher can Edmunds

lift his ceiling?  Right now I am starting to feel that he is still learning a lot in this scheme and can get much better.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Freddie's Dead, so appreciate this and all the work you put into it.  I agree with your opinion of Edmunds 100%.  Really like your evaluation system and how simple you keep it.  Keep up the great work. 

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, Milano is more that kinda guy in this defense anyway as the SLB they ask him to play closer to the line. Edmunds gets more of the intermediate zone or outside zone assignments. On the rare occasion they do ask him to run blitz or man the RB, he does just fine. When they recognize run he'sgap sound. I think he'll always struggle with leverage against stout OLs because of his height. But he's learned to manage those blocks better while keeping his eyes on the RB.

 

I know most people don’t want to hear that, but I think he plays the run with an eye on leverage and trying to stop a small to medium run from becoming a long run.  
 

He doesn’t really get blocked downfield like some players - many times he engages with a blocker and uses his hands to keep them off his body and then uses his eyes to retreat and try to maintain leverage and allow pursuit to get there.  He will fall back 5-6+ yards while maintaining leverage to come off and either make a tackle as they go buy or allow the pursuit to get there.
 

Some LBs attack the OL blocker and play off and sometimes they get nice stops, but sometimes the OL blocker wins and then that LB has lost leverage and you get the big play- we see those go for 40 yards and a TD - like Singletary or even 20+ yards like Allen.

 

Edmunds almost always slow plays it - backing off and trying to maintain his position as he retreats.  It looks bad, but I think from the team perspective of making plays - they accept that retreat to keep the bigger play from happening. Those are the plays typically identified as Haters plays, but I think that is just how he is playing those plays.  Force the other team to keep having to make plays.

 

There are also other plays that you see if you watch the Cover 1 film room - where Edmunds is covering in the flat, but his presence caused Hill to alligator arms a pass with Poyer in coverage on Hill.  Poyer gets credit, but it was Edmunds recognizing and squaring up on Hill that caused him to take his eyes off and let the pass fall incomplete.

 

Cover 1 also showed examples of just how good his spacing was and how even on a pass designed to beat the exact coverage the Bills were running - his ability to get deep and push Hill a step or two deeper disrupted the timing just enough to force an incompletion.

 

I understand there are aspects to his game that are downright frustrating, but the entire gameplan against the Chiefs falls apart without a MLB like Edmunds that can cover all over the field.

 

 

[Beast]

5 hours ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

Eye test was good the last couple of games.

 

No offense, but when players and coaches around the league have voted Edmunds into the Pro Bowl the previous two seasons, it has been good for quite some time.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Beast

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The refs didn't screw up the down and distance on the hold. Holding is measured by where the foul happened and the hold occurred 15 yards down field by their WR..I think Robinson(number 11) if I am not mistaken.

 

Therefore 15-10 = 5

 

Doesn't happen that often but I have seen it a bunch of times over the years in these situations, almost always when a WR is holding down field.

 

Agree, and actually I was a bit dismayed by McDermott going after it.  I would like him to advance to Jr Hoodie-like grasp of the rulebook.

[Old Coot]

Good analysis.  I'd add that in McDermott's 2 deep base defense there can be a hole in the middle of the field between the safeties.  It's Edmunds primary job to fill that hole and, as the analysis shows, he does a good job at that.

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Is Tremaine Edmunds actually getting good? In the same season that Star Lotulelei decided to get good!? This is some kind of season.

 

Don't forget Knox

[Freddie's Dead]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agree, and actually I was a bit dismayed by McDermott going after it.  I would like him to advance to Jr Hoodie-like grasp of the rulebook.

 

I think his problem was with the spot.  The holding actually started around the 20, they went to ground at the 15.

[appoo]

This entire discourse hurts my football soul and makes me sad on the inside. Edmunds is going to be a stud for the Bills for the next 5-6 and I love it

[JDubya76]

Great breakdown again Freddie.

 

the only one I disagree with was the 9th drive TD to Kelce. We had 2 Bills covering a 4 receiver diamond. PM got that ball out so fast with the basketball pass that there was no way anyone was getting to it.

 

I would call it a great play call and zero adjustment by our D to get more bodies out there to at least give PM pause about shuffling the ball to Kelce.

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by JDubya76