warrior9 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I know the chatter has calmed down after his dominant performance last week, however, something I found interesting is the following: If you take his current stats and average them over 17 games, his numbers will look like this: ~4500 passing yards, 40 TDs, 6 INTs ~500 rushing yards, 6 TDs. I think it's safe to assume he's going to have more passing yards than 4500 because of how low his first two games really were and I genuinely think they were an anomaly. If his numbers end up being similar to this (this is similar to last year) with an extra game.... I think I'd call it a success. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl2526 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 If Buffalo blows out a lot of teams, Josh may not be getting a lot of playing time in fourth quarters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 Just now, BigAl2526 said: If Buffalo blows out a lot of teams, Josh may not be getting a lot of playing time in fourth quarters. Right right, however, if we're blowing teams out... it will be because of him and his numbers. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uninja Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 That feels reasonably solid, think his rushing numbers are going to trend down and the passing yards will likely trend up. TDs and Ints look very reasonable. Rush TDs feels a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 1 minute ago, warrior9 said: Right right, however, if we're blowing teams out... it will be because of him and his numbers. We also got some pretty short fields with how well the defense has been playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blainorama5 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, uninja said: That feels reasonably solid, think his rushing numbers are going to trend down and the passing yards will likely trend up. TDs and Ints look very reasonable. Rush TDs feels a bit low. I agree. I think the TDs will be more than 6, but I suspect the coaches would prefer he not scramble around like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts anymore so yeah those number should probably be down a bit this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I wonder how this compares to other QBs current numbers. He'd be up there in MVP votes again, for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I know the chatter has calmed down after his dominant performance last week, however, something I found interesting is the following: If you take his current stats and average them over 17 games, his numbers will look like this: ~4500 passing yards, 40 TDs, 6 INTs ~500 rushing yards, 6 TDs. I think it's safe to assume he's going to have more passing yards than 4500 because of how low his first two games really were and I genuinely think they were an anomaly. If his numbers end up being similar to this (this is similar to last year) with an extra game.... I think I'd call it a success. Flip side passing yards wise not every game is going to be perfect so I think the 4500 yds territory is pretty on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, Blainorama5 said: I agree. I think the TDs will be more than 6, but I suspect the coaches would prefer he not scramble around like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts anymore so yeah those number should probably be down a bit this season. Well thats what the coaching staff SHOULD think...but for some dumb reason Daboll has been treating Allen like he is Derrick Henry out there calling way too many bad calls where Josh takes the snap and runs right up the middle off the snap before the box has even had a chance to clear out. Its the worst play call in our playbook. Josh is dangerous as a runner extending plays and rolling out. The only up the middle run calls he should get are QB sneaks only in short yardage where he has nearly a 100% conversion rate. I do think his rushing TD's and overall yards will go down because we just have so many weapons at his disposal though 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, corta765 said: Flip side passing yards wise not every game is going to be perfect so I think the 4500 yds territory is pretty on. Yeah, i'd imagine rushing is somewhere between 450-550 and passing yards between 4450 and 4600. TD's from 37-45 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Call me crazy but Allen did what he had to week 1 and 2. Imo year 1 and 2 Allen, who he was compared to, wouldnt have handled those games as well as he did. He didnt force the ball down the field recklessly. He managed the games. Brady made a career of it. Against Pitts the difference was a blocked punt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Well thats what the coaching staff SHOULD think...but for some dumb reason Daboll has been treating Allen like he is Derrick Henry out there calling way too many bad calls where Josh takes the snap and runs right up the middle off the snap before the box has even had a chance to clear out. Its the worst play call in our playbook. Josh is dangerous as a runner extending plays and rolling out. The only up the middle run calls he should get are QB sneaks only in short yardage where he has nearly a 100% conversion rate. I do think his rushing TD's and overall yards will go down because we just have so many weapons at his disposal though I generally like most Allen runs, called or scramble. They all present an opportunity to be demoralizing for the defense. I'd rather see him scramble because it usually works out better due to the situation. But I don't knock Daboll for calling designed runs. You have to use all weapons at your disposal. It's just another thing for the defense to prepare for. We hear it every week when the opposing coach talks about Allen being a tough load to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 After the game on Sunday I was thinking about just how far Josh has come in the last 2 years. I remembered the week 4 loss to the Pats*** in 2019 when he threw 3 picks and how his career numbers were pretty bad up to that point. Following that week 4 loss in 2019, Josh had 13 Passing TDs & 18 INTs in 15 career starts. In his 31 starts since he's had 61 Passing TDs & only 14 INTs. That's just a ridiculous improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mat68 said: Call me crazy but Allen did what he had to week 1 and 2. Imo year 1 and 2 Allen, who he was compared to, wouldnt have handled those games as well as he did. He didnt force the ball down the field recklessly. He managed the games. Brady made a career of it. Against Pitts the difference was a blocked punt. I think in game one, you could make the a case he did force a LOT down field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: I wonder how this compares to other QBs current numbers. He'd be up there in MVP votes again, for sure. 12th in yds 27th in passing % tied 5th in TD's tied 2nd in least int 12th in QBR 12th in rating 5th in rushing tied 5th rushing td Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac2001 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 But where does he rank in total passing yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said: If Buffalo blows out a lot of teams, Josh may not be getting a lot of playing time in fourth quarters. 59 minutes ago, warrior9 said: Right right, however, if we're blowing teams out... it will be because of him and his numbers. I really think it would be quite something to see Mitch in every single game remaining this year because of that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Pro rated #s are fun but they rarely match early calculations at the end of season. He will put up really good numbers because the strength of schedule is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsShredder83 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: I generally like most Allen runs, called or scramble. They all present an opportunity to be demoralizing for the defense. I'd rather see him scramble because it usually works out better due to the situation. But I don't knock Daboll for calling designed runs. You have to use all weapons at your disposal. It's just another thing for the defense to prepare for. We hear it every week when the opposing coach talks about Allen being a tough load to handle. High risk/ low reward on the called josh runs. I understand it makes the defense think a little, but were good enough to win without it. The rollout scrambles im all for. Gets him away from the big uglies, and the sideline protects him, he can focus his attention to half the field, nobody sneaking up on him, plus he can avoid contact out of bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykidsdad Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 anyone know how to contact nfl.com. it burns me that they have josh's stats wrong https://www.nfl.com/voting/air-and-ground/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcam2012 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: After the game on Sunday I was thinking about just how far Josh has come in the last 2 years. I remembered the week 4 loss to the Pats*** in 2019 when he threw 3 picks and how his career numbers were pretty bad up to that point. Following that week 4 loss in 2019, Josh had 13 Passing TDs & 18 INTs in 15 career starts. In his 31 starts since he's had 61 Passing TDs & only 14 INTs. That's just a ridiculous improvement. It's most impressive how he's improved his accuracy. His arm talent was never in question. In fact, Mayock and Hassleback stated that Allen had the biggest upside. The Bills swung for the fences and hit a home run. Gotta give Beane and company credit. His strides forward are off the charts. Last year's jump was phenomenal. I'm not sure there has been a bigger QB improvement in the history of the NFL. Edited September 29, 2021 by newcam2012 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: I generally like most Allen runs, called or scramble. They all present an opportunity to be demoralizing for the defense. I'd rather see him scramble because it usually works out better due to the situation. But I don't knock Daboll for calling designed runs. You have to use all weapons at your disposal. It's just another thing for the defense to prepare for. We hear it every week when the opposing coach talks about Allen being a tough load to handle. I dont have an issue with calling designed runs, its the designed runs that Daboll specifically calls that are terrible and never net us more than 3 or 4 yards while Josh takes big hits and is a fumble risk. It is the RPO or designed run where Josh immediately goes right up the middle before the LB's or anyone has cleared out in coverage. I think designed runs are smart and should be part of the game plan because Allen is quite dangerous with his legs...but Allen isn't Lamar or Murray, the best designed runs for Allen are the ones that at least give the illusion of a pass by letting Allen either roll out or first drop back then take off once our receivers have cleared some space underneath. Allen is an open space threat, he isn't the guy you want to run into the teeth of the defense unless its down and 1 or down and 2 and you want him to sneak it where he has like a 99% conversion rate over his career. But for some odd reason, Daboll is calling runs like Allen is a full time RB or FB out there, and given Allens fumbling issues at times, thats a risky call given he is going to take some hits, not to mention adding to injury risk with those up the middle draws. So I don't disagree with you about using his talents like his legs as an additional weapon, I just disagree with Daboll on the specific run plays he keeps calling up the middle that never gain us much and force Allen to take a bunch of unnecessary hits. Edited September 28, 2021 by Alphadawg7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I can't wait for the new hater mantra to become "only 2 good seasons" or "he had those two bad games, therefore sucks". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 if we are the #1 seed, he will win MVP - plain and simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Remember the days when we could go months without even seeing a 300 yard passing game? Good times. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Success said: Remember the days when we could go months without even seeing a 300 yard passing game? Good times. And I believe the Bills are undefeated when Allen tops 300 yards which is an amazing and unusual stat. A lot of losing QB's get 300 yards. That we've won every game he does this is interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 6 hours ago, Mat68 said: Call me crazy but Allen did what he had to week 1 and 2. Imo year 1 and 2 Allen, who he was compared to, wouldnt have handled those games as well as he did. He didnt force the ball down the field recklessly. He managed the games. Brady made a career of it. Against Pitts the difference was a blocked punt. What I’ve been saying even in a “bad” game the score was essentially tied with Pittsburgh and he accounted for 320 total yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 5 hours ago, 1ManRaid said: I can't wait for the new hater mantra to become "only 2 good seasons" or "he had those two bad games, therefore sucks". Don’t think there are that many pure “haters” of Allen left out there (unless they’re diehard fans of other teams of course.) There certainly aren’t that many around here. People may have been discussing some bit of regression after the first couple games this year, but I’d hardly count that as hating on the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 6 hours ago, mikemac2001 said: But where does he rank in total passing yard Dude, NG just did all the math on it probably bored on the iPad. You respond with yeah but what about…. I f you want to know, add to the convo and you do it. I’m good. Besides it’s early for any predictions out. I think after week 6, we’ll have a wide range of opponents and the data would be more robust. For me, that’s the week to start breaking it down. I mean after week 2 we were the 2nd best defense. Now 4th after week 3. Just too volatile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac2001 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 48 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said: Dude, NG just did all the math on it probably bored on the iPad. You respond with yeah but what about…. I f you want to know, add to the convo and you do it. I’m good. Besides it’s early for any predictions out. I think after week 6, we’ll have a wide range of opponents and the data would be more robust. For me, that’s the week to start breaking it down. I mean after week 2 we were the 2nd best defense. Now 4th after week 3. Just too volatile right now. wut? I was just referring to the poster that would update us every week on Josh Allen’s passing yard ranking seems like a good tie in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 6 hours ago, Success said: Remember the days when we could go months without even seeing a 300 yard passing game? Good times. You mean years? 1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said: Don’t think there are that many pure “haters” of Allen left out there (unless they’re diehard fans of other teams of course.) There certainly aren’t that many around here. People may have been discussing some bit of regression after the first couple games this year, but I’d hardly count that as hating on the guy. I was making a veiled jab at Nick Wrong, although the same sentiments are expressed through Twitter trolls and fan forums of other teams. Yes, yes, the fun police screech to ignore Nick, but I find entertainment in the clear frustration of his cohosts having to mentally process reason/excuse #312 of why Bills vs (bad team) are his upset alert of the week yet again. 3 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said: wut? I was just referring to the poster that would update us every week on Josh Allen’s passing yard ranking seems like a good tie in Yeah I was going to comment on maybe updating this thread after each game as the sample size grows. Include his per game average along with the projected totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calidiehard Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 6 hours ago, Success said: Remember the days when we could go months without even seeing a 300 yard passing game? Good times. We went several seasons between 300 yard passing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 8 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: After the game on Sunday I was thinking about just how far Josh has come in the last 2 years. I remembered the week 4 loss to the Pats*** in 2019 when he threw 3 picks and how his career numbers were pretty bad up to that point. Following that week 4 loss in 2019, Josh had 13 Passing TDs & 18 INTs in 15 career starts. In his 31 starts since he's had 61 Passing TDs & only 14 INTs. That's just a ridiculous improvement. And people said he would suck cause he’s never had a 300 yard game... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan619 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 11 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: After the game on Sunday I was thinking about just how far Josh has come in the last 2 years. I remembered the week 4 loss to the Pats*** in 2019 when he threw 3 picks and how his career numbers were pretty bad up to that point. Following that week 4 loss in 2019, Josh had 13 Passing TDs & 18 INTs in 15 career starts. In his 31 starts since he's had 61 Passing TDs & only 14 INTs. That's just a ridiculous improvement. Thank you for finding these stats. That’s very impressive. It also shows that the fans that were clamoring that he only had one good year (2020) were wrong. 31 games is almost equivalent to two great seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 5 hours ago, 1ManRaid said: You mean years? I was making a veiled jab at Nick Wrong, although the same sentiments are expressed through Twitter trolls and fan forums of other teams. Yes, yes, the fun police screech to ignore Nick, but I find entertainment in the clear frustration of his cohosts having to mentally process reason/excuse #312 of why Bills vs (bad team) are his upset alert of the week yet again. Hey that’s all good - much of what Wright says is just theatrics anyways and if you get some entertainment value out of him and his cohosts then by all means enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 And the chatter will continue on and on depending on the results of the next 3 weeks If the Bills offense scores less than 30 points 😮 I can see it now Whats wrong with Josh This guy sucks That guy sucks Fire the coaches KC and Tenny won’t be cake walks but then again they might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 3 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: And the chatter will continue on and on depending on the results of the next 3 weeks If the Bills offense scores less than 30 points 😮 I can see it now Whats wrong with Josh This guy sucks That guy sucks Fire the coaches KC and Tenny won’t be cake walks but then again they might Tenn has a relatively weak defense. We should be able to put up a ton of points on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Well Teddy Bridgewater is on pace for 4,600+ yards, 23 TD's, 0 interceptions & 17 wins, so beat that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts