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Josh's current statistical pace.


warrior9
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I know the chatter has calmed down after his dominant performance last week, however, something I found interesting is the following:

 

If you take his current stats and average them over 17 games, his numbers will look like this:

 

~4500 passing yards, 40 TDs, 6 INTs

~500 rushing yards, 6 TDs. 

 

I think it's safe to assume he's going to have more passing yards than 4500 because of how low his first two games really were and I genuinely think they were an anomaly. If his numbers end up being similar to this (this is similar to last year) with an extra game.... I think I'd call it a success. 

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Just now, BigAl2526 said:

If Buffalo blows out a lot of teams, Josh may not be getting a lot of playing time in fourth quarters.

Right right, however, if we're blowing teams out... it will be because of him and his numbers. 

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5 minutes ago, uninja said:

That feels reasonably solid, think his rushing numbers are going to trend down and the passing yards will likely trend up. TDs and Ints look very reasonable. Rush TDs feels a bit low.

I agree.  I think the TDs will be more than 6, but I suspect the coaches would prefer he not scramble around like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts anymore so yeah those number should probably be down a bit this season.

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23 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

I know the chatter has calmed down after his dominant performance last week, however, something I found interesting is the following:

 

If you take his current stats and average them over 17 games, his numbers will look like this:

 

~4500 passing yards, 40 TDs, 6 INTs

~500 rushing yards, 6 TDs. 

 

I think it's safe to assume he's going to have more passing yards than 4500 because of how low his first two games really were and I genuinely think they were an anomaly. If his numbers end up being similar to this (this is similar to last year) with an extra game.... I think I'd call it a success. 

 

Flip side passing yards wise not every game is going to be perfect so I think the 4500 yds territory is pretty on.

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9 minutes ago, Blainorama5 said:

I agree.  I think the TDs will be more than 6, but I suspect the coaches would prefer he not scramble around like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts anymore so yeah those number should probably be down a bit this season.

 

Well thats what the coaching staff SHOULD think...but for some dumb reason Daboll has been treating Allen like he is Derrick Henry out there calling way too many bad calls where Josh takes the snap and runs right up the middle off the snap before the box has even had a chance to clear out.  Its the worst play call in our playbook.  

 

Josh is dangerous as a runner extending plays and rolling out.  The only up the middle run calls he should get are QB sneaks only in short yardage where he has nearly a 100% conversion rate.  

 

I do think his rushing TD's and overall yards will go down because we just have so many weapons at his disposal though

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15 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Flip side passing yards wise not every game is going to be perfect so I think the 4500 yds territory is pretty on.

Yeah, i'd imagine rushing is somewhere between 450-550 and passing yards between 4450 and 4600. TD's from 37-45 ish

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Call me crazy but Allen did what he had to week 1 and 2.  Imo year 1 and 2 Allen, who he was compared to, wouldnt have handled those games as well as he did.  He didnt force the ball down the field recklessly.  He managed the games.  Brady made a career of it.  Against Pitts the difference was a blocked punt.  

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21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well thats what the coaching staff SHOULD think...but for some dumb reason Daboll has been treating Allen like he is Derrick Henry out there calling way too many bad calls where Josh takes the snap and runs right up the middle off the snap before the box has even had a chance to clear out.  Its the worst play call in our playbook.  

 

Josh is dangerous as a runner extending plays and rolling out.  The only up the middle run calls he should get are QB sneaks only in short yardage where he has nearly a 100% conversion rate.  

 

I do think his rushing TD's and overall yards will go down because we just have so many weapons at his disposal though

I generally like most Allen runs, called or scramble. They all present an opportunity to be demoralizing for the defense.

 

I'd rather see him scramble because it usually works out better due to the situation. But I don't knock Daboll for calling designed runs. You have to use all weapons at your disposal. It's just another thing for the defense to prepare for. We hear it every week when the opposing coach talks about Allen being a tough load to handle.

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After the game on Sunday I was thinking about just how far Josh has come in the last 2 years. I remembered the week 4 loss to the Pats*** in 2019 when he threw 3 picks and how his career numbers were pretty bad up to that point. Following that week 4 loss in 2019, Josh had 13 Passing TDs & 18 INTs in 15 career starts. In his 31 starts since he's had 61 Passing TDs & only 14 INTs. That's just a ridiculous improvement.

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4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Call me crazy but Allen did what he had to week 1 and 2.  Imo year 1 and 2 Allen, who he was compared to, wouldnt have handled those games as well as he did.  He didnt force the ball down the field recklessly.  He managed the games.  Brady made a career of it.  Against Pitts the difference was a blocked punt.  

I think in game one, you could make the a case he did force a LOT down field.

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37 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I wonder how this compares to other QBs current numbers.

 

He'd be up there in MVP votes again, for sure.

12th in yds

27th in passing %

tied 5th in TD's

tied 2nd in least int

12th in QBR

12th in rating

5th in rushing

tied 5th rushing td

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1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

If Buffalo blows out a lot of teams, Josh may not be getting a lot of playing time in fourth quarters.

 

59 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Right right, however, if we're blowing teams out... it will be because of him and his numbers. 

 

 

I really think it would be quite something to see Mitch in every single game remaining this year because of that reason.

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18 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I generally like most Allen runs, called or scramble. They all present an opportunity to be demoralizing for the defense.

 

I'd rather see him scramble because it usually works out better due to the situation. But I don't knock Daboll for calling designed runs. You have to use all weapons at your disposal. It's just another thing for the defense to prepare for. We hear it every week when the opposing coach talks about Allen being a tough load to handle.

High risk/ low reward on the called josh runs.

 

I understand it makes the defense think a little, but were good enough to win without it. 

 

The rollout scrambles im all for.  Gets him away from the big uglies, and the sideline protects him, he can focus his attention to half the field, nobody sneaking up on him, plus he can avoid contact out of bounds.

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