Chris Sims says that Gred Rousseau and Boogie Basham are on this top 5 draft bust list

[Billy Claude]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's click-bait because

1) the Bills were in the AFC championship game and pretty clearly needed better QB pressure to go further. 

So 2nd-guessing their efforts in that regard is news

 

2) Brandon Beane just won several awards as the Bills GM, including Sporting News Executive of the Year and PFWA Executive of the Year. So 2nd-guessing his top-two draft picks is "edgy"

 

 

Looked a lot like the more standard definition, "something to generate traffic to their website", and that you were arguing that predicting a top-10 pick to bust was a more effective strategy.  I disagree and explained why.

 

 

 

 

You left out an important part of the standard definition of click-bait -- that click-bait has the defining characteristic of being deceptive, sensationalized or misleading.  If the definition is solely "something to generate traffic to their website" than any sports piece on the internet is click-bait since that is the only reason the writers are getting paid. 

 

So are you are arguing that because the Bills are a championship level team and that Beane won some awards any second guessing of the Bills and Brandon Beane must solely to be to be "edgy" and therefore dishonest?

 

Sorry, but I don't believe that simply being skeptical of Brandon Beanes's draft picks is sufficient to rise to the level of being deceptive, misleading, or sensationalized.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Billy Claude

[machine gun kelly]

I guess it depends on you’re expectations of what you think a person at the end of the first and second round would be in the NFL.  I’m expecting they grow into significant contributors in the NFL, but every draft is a calculated gamble.  Beane has provided for a great deal of competition at this position, and I didn’t see that many other defensive linemen picked after our pics I expect will be incredible in the NFL.

 

I was hoping for at least a couple of high impact contributors, but the chances were better at other positions.  Like every year it’s a wait and see.

[Putin]

17 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s the end of the offseason and there’s almost nothing to talk about that hasn’t been said already…unless of course someone wants to comment on Ertz? Anyone?

Should we start a new Ertz thread ?? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Aren't we all potential busts? 

[machine gun kelly]

Todd, are you going to change Greg’s name to Gred?  Just askin.

[todd]

13 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Todd, are you going to change Greg’s name to Gred?  Just askin.

 

I've started a GoFundMe fundraiser and an online petition to do so. Please join the movement!

[eball]

I’m going to call b.s. on just how much “film” Simms has watched of these two DE prospects.  Rousseau was a risky pick for a couple of reasons (opt out, inexperience), but how he showed on film wasn’t one of them.  Same for Boogie — nothing but production for WF.

 

Simms probably felt he needed to pump the brakes on Buffalo with all of the Josh Allen ball washing.

 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, eball said:

I’m going to call b.s. on just how much “film” Simms has watched of these two DE prospects.  Rousseau was a risky pick for a couple of reasons (opt out, inexperience), but how he showed on film wasn’t one of them.  Same for Boogie — nothing but production for WF.

 

Simms probably felt he needed to pump the brakes on Buffalo with all of the Josh Allen ball washing.

 

 

There are reasons on Rousseau's film that he went at #30 and he was a risky pick in the sense that you needed to project a bit for his development. In 2019 he definitely showed a better understanding of how to to use his leverage when inside against smaller guards and centers than when outside in space against bigger tackles. Now on the face of it you would think that can be developed as the same principles should apply to a large extent but you didn't get the chance to see it because of the opt out.

 

I was not a fan of Basham's film. I have gone over the reasons why lots of times. I had a high 3rd on him. Didn't hate the value where the Bills took him but was not surprised he fell to them there. I suspect a lot of other teams saw him the way I saw him but I always acknowledged the Bills might be a fit as might the Jets and 49ers because they all have this tendency (well for the Jets and 49ers Saleh does) for bigger base ends in their 4 man front. There are a lot of 4-3 teams who would have looked at Basham's tape and said "doesn't display the bend or technique to play defensive end in our scheme" and moved on. Simms does acknowledge at the end of his summary on Basham that Buffalo was a decent landing spot for him because the coaches will have a way if using him. That might just have been a nod to McDermott and Frazier but from a scheme perspective Buffalo will have a use for Basham in the way other teams might not have. 

[eball]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are reasons on Rousseau's film that he went at #30 and he was a risky pick in the sense that you needed to project a bit for his development. In 2019 he definitely showed a better understanding of how to to use his leverage when inside against smaller guards and centers than when outside in space against bigger tackles. Now on the face of it you would think that can be developed as the same principles should apply to a large extent but you didn't get the chance to see it because of the opt out.

 

I was not a fan of Basham's film. I have gone over the reasons why lots of times. I had a high 3rd on him. Didn't hate the value where the Bills took him but was not surprised he fell to them there. I suspect a lot of other teams saw him the way I saw him but I always acknowledged the Bills might be a fit as might the Jets and 49ers because they all have this tendency (well for the Jets and 49ers Saleh does) for bigger base ends in their 4 man front. There are a lot of 4-3 teams who would have looked at Basham's tape and said "doesn't display the bend or technique to play defensive end in our scheme" and moved on. Simms does acknowledge at the end of his summary on Basham that Buffalo was a decent landing spot for him because the coaches will have a way if using him. That might just have been a nod to McDermott and Frazier but from a scheme perspective Buffalo will have a use for Basham in the way other teams might not have. 

 

This is all well and good but Boogie was a late 2nd rounder who played at a high level in a power five conference.  It just seems like an odd guy for Simms to single out as a potential bust.  Pretty much everything I've read about Boogie suggests he has a reasonably high floor, taking him out of that "bust" conversation IMO.

 

[H2o]

[Nihilarian]

Ed Oliver was the 9th overall pick in 2019.

In 7 game starts, 16 games played he had 5 sacks in 2019. In 2020 in 16 games, game starts he had 3 sacks. 

 

AJ Epenesa was a second round pick in 2020, 54th overall. one sack. Trading away that 2020 1st round pick pick for the NFLs leading yardage, receptions receiver in Diggs. 

 

I'd say these defensive players are still being developed in McD's and Leslie Frazier's scheme. Trust the process. With Star back on the line I'd think this season will be better for those two.

 

The NFL draft is a crapshoot and sometimes you hit... and sometimes you don't!

I'd say Brandon Beane's record on the draft has been pretty darn good so far. Just gotta wait and see. 

[Eastport bills]

As a woeful excuse for an NFL QB, Simms only credentials as a talent evaluator is being related to father Phil. Why would anyone care what he thinks. He sounds like a propped up football expert on the NBC show where I can't imagine anyone being more prone to sensational comments to be controversial. He's just a shill drawing a pay check. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

This is all well and good but Boogie was a late 2nd rounder who played at a high level in a power five conference.  It just seems like an odd guy for Simms to single out as a potential bust.  Pretty much everything I've read about Boogie suggests he has a reasonably high floor, taking him out of that "bust" conversation IMO.

 

 

Yea I don't see Boogie as a boom or bust guy. I see him as a pretty safe player but not much of a high ceiling guy.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are reasons on Rousseau's film that he went at #30 and he was a risky pick in the sense that you needed to project a bit for his development. In 2019 he definitely showed a better understanding of how to to use his leverage when inside against smaller guards and centers than when outside in space against bigger tackles. Now on the face of it you would think that can be developed as the same principles should apply to a large extent but you didn't get the chance to see it because of the opt out.

 

I was not a fan of Basham's film. I have gone over the reasons why lots of times. I had a high 3rd on him. Didn't hate the value where the Bills took him but was not surprised he fell to them there. I suspect a lot of other teams saw him the way I saw him but I always acknowledged the Bills might be a fit as might the Jets and 49ers because they all have this tendency (well for the Jets and 49ers Saleh does) for bigger base ends in their 4 man front. There are a lot of 4-3 teams who would have looked at Basham's tape and said "doesn't display the bend or technique to play defensive end in our scheme" and moved on. Simms does acknowledge at the end of his summary on Basham that Buffalo was a decent landing spot for him because the coaches will have a way if using him. That might just have been a nod to McDermott and Frazier but from a scheme perspective Buffalo will have a use for Basham in the way other teams might not have. 

 

I have a feeling they want Boogie to put on a little weight, maybe around that 290 area to rush from the inside.

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 7/5/2021 at 9:13 AM, billsbackto81 said:

 

 

On 7/5/2021 at 9:57 AM, Brennan Huff said:

 

 

It is important to note to those who are here infrequently or are new here that this is a very pro Big Lebowski and Roadhouse Board.  Although I wish there were more Swingers quotes, the above are perfectly acceptable for most forms of commenting.

Edited July 6, 2021 by dollars 2 donuts

[Codycolo12]

Chris Simms is great.  You know he thought Epenesa was the  3rd best DE last year and said behind him was a big drop off. He is  honest,  you can tell he puts in the work. 

[Jauronimo]

Defensive end is one of the hardest positions to project from college to NFL.  Picking two highly drafted DEs who both have obvious limitations at current is fairly reasonable in my opinion. 

 

Rousseau needs 2 years to grow into his frame and develop NFL strength and some pass rushing moves.  He was a one year wonder in college.  Hes high ceiling, low floor.  Basham looks like hes ready to play today but his ceiling is much lower than Rousseau.  

 

Its hardly guaranteed that between Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham we have solved our pass rush issue.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Defensive end is one of the hardest positions to project from college to NFL.  Picking two highly drafted DEs who both have obvious limitations at current is fairly reasonable in my opinion. 

 

Rousseau needs 2 years to grow into his frame and develop NFL strength and some pass rushing moves.  He was a one year wonder in college.  Hes high ceiling, low floor.  Basham looks like hes ready to play today but his ceiling is much lower than Rousseau.  

 

Its hardly guaranteed that between Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham we have solved our pass rush issue.

 

I agree with this. I think the Bills feel like if they get 1 hit out of those 3 guys it is worth the investment such is the importance of the position.

[dpberr]

Both of these players will exceed expectations in Year #1 because OLs haven't seen them and they are young and athletic.  They will get some sacks and run down some backs despite having limited moves.  They probably won't play much because the Bills will do the Espenesa training program - lots of learning and improving their physical condition.  

 

Year #2 is where you see what you have because to succeed as a defensive lineman, you need an array of moves + strength and players either develop or they end up like Takarist McKinley who is the exact same player he was in college.

 

I didn't like the Rousseau pick because he was lined up over center in just one season of play.   I think his sack numbers are exceptionally misleading.  For the majority , if not all of those sacks, he was lined up over center, taking on those centers, usually the smartest player on the line but not the strongest or fastest, and that's not where he's going to be in the pros.

[TheBrownBear]

I agree with Simms.  Not really high on either guy, but I've made exactly $0 in my long career as an NFL Scout from my couch.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't see Boogie as a boom or bust guy. I see him as a pretty safe player but not much of a high ceiling guy.

I'm with you, pretty safe, smart, pick to me.  They don't really define bust.  For Rousseau he says he didn't see him being a top 30 player, that's not a bust.  And Boogie seems very safe to not only make the team but be a solid rotational player in his first year.

 

If these two become rotational players that allow the Bills to jettison Addison and Butler next year, they are producing a financial benefit to the Bills.  To me the odds are strongly in their favor to do at least that.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

It is important to note to those who are here infrequently or are new here that this is a very pro Big Lebowski and Roadhouse Board.  Although I wish there were more Swingers quotes, the above are perfectly acceptable for most forms of commenting.

We should change the “Agree” vote to “You’re so money!” 

[dollars 2 donuts]

25 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

We should change the “Agree” vote to “You’re so money!” 

 

See?  See everybody?!  Take the lead from Barley.

 

See how easy it is to be outstanding?!

 

"Our little boys all grows up tonight!"

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 7/5/2021 at 7:58 AM, costrovs said:

One of the best quotes from Sean when he was talking about Rousseau after we drafted him was "you don't just luck into 15.5 sacks."

Simms in his assessment seems to think so

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Simms in his assessment seems to think so

When I look at highlights of Rousseau, I see a player creating his own havoc. I don't see players just landing in his path!

[Dr.Sack]

I’d rather have a guy who can hunt down QBs running for their life and gets 10+ pursuit sacks then a guy who whiffs on 10-20 sacks after winning his matchup & ends the season with 5 sacks. 

[Victory Formation]

I-I-I-I just can’t live with all the Boogie hate..

[Chandler#81]

On 7/5/2021 at 9:40 AM, Fan in Chicago said:

 

Those snippets dont have any detailed analysis of the players but I will give Simms the benefit of the doubt as he typically bases his opinions on actual viewing and analysis. I hope he is wrong too. We need to hit on at least one of Basham and Rousseau else we are mighty thin at the position for this and future seasons

Hughes is getting on in years -something I’m quite familiar with, he’ll needs a breather now & again. But what we’re talking about here is replacing Trent Murphy and spelling Addison. We haven’t had a decent DE since Mario quit playing before his final season here, yet we’re typically middle of the pack with sacks, thanks to clever blitz schemes. Should it turn out that  Rousseau, Boogie & A.J. are just run of the mill schelpers, well, that’s where the bar here has been set for years..🤷‍♂️ 

 

**

23 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I guess it depends on you’re expectations of what you think a person at the end of the first and second round would be in the NFL.  I’m expecting they grow into significant contributors in the NFL, but every draft is a calculated gamble.  Beane has provided for a great deal of competition at this position, and I didn’t see that many other defensive linemen picked after our pics I expect will be incredible in the NFL.

 

I was hoping for at least a couple of high impact contributors, but the chances were better at other positions.  Like every year it’s a wait and see.

**

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are reasons on Rousseau's film that he went at #30 and he was a risky pick in the sense that you needed to project a bit for his development. In 2019 he definitely showed a better understanding of how to to use his leverage when inside against smaller guards and centers than when outside in space against bigger tackles. Now on the face of it you would think that can be developed as the same principles should apply to a large extent but you didn't get the chance to see it because of the opt out.

 

I was not a fan of Basham's film. I have gone over the reasons why lots of times. I had a high 3rd on him. Didn't hate the value where the Bills took him but was not surprised he fell to them there. I suspect a lot of other teams saw him the way I saw him but I always acknowledged the Bills might be a fit as might the Jets and 49ers because they all have this tendency (well for the Jets and 49ers Saleh does) for bigger base ends in their 4 man front. There are a lot of 4-3 teams who would have looked at Basham's tape and said "doesn't display the bend or technique to play defensive end in our scheme" and moved on. Simms does acknowledge at the end of his summary on Basham that Buffalo was a decent landing spot for him because the coaches will have a way if using him. That might just have been a nod to McDermott and Frazier but from a scheme perspective Buffalo will have a use for Basham in the way other teams might not have. 

**

 

** 2 of my favorite posters.

For reference, when we drafted late in the early 90’s -cuz we were good, we took 2 DEs in the the ‘hit or miss’ category. 

Leon ‘Dr. 1 Sack’ Seals and some Midwest plow boy from N.Dakota State, Wall of Famer, Phil Hanson. Should this new trio of hopefuls join the long list of ‘Lawson-esgue’ DEs not earning a 2nd contract, well, there’s only 1 who did..

 

Thanks, fellas, for bringing the levity. You make this place better 👍

[buffaloaggie]

Simms had Jaylon Ferguson as a top 7 edge rusher in 2019, and in 2021, he's already facing a make or break season. Simms gives us an educated guess. That's his job. It's a guess.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, buffaloaggie said:

Simms had Jaylon Ferguson as a top 7 edge rusher in 2019, and in 2021, he's already facing a make or break season. Simms gives us an educated guess. That's his job. It's a guess.

 

In fairness I loved him too. He was a top 40 player on my board. 

[mannc]

On 7/5/2021 at 11:07 AM, Billy Claude said:

 

Sorry I just don't see it.

 

I define click-bait as saying something outrageous that the author does not believe in, solely to generate traffic to their website, for example, anything that Skip Bayless says.  I don't see how this particular instance meets this criteria.

 

(1) Almost by definition a high ceiling, low floor, developmental prospect is going to have a higher bust probability.  It doesn't mean its a bad pick, just a riskier one.  In any case, it is not then surprising that this pick will be on some people's list of likely busts.  So if someone was soley trying to generate clicks, I don't think they would have picked Rousseau.

 

(2) I don't think that Beane has reached such an exalted position that any criticism of him will automatically draw attention -- maybe five years from now but now now.  I find it difficult to believe that Simms put Rousseau on his list simply because he was picked by Brandon Beane.

 

I am not saying Simms put a great deal of thought into his list, nor whether I feel that Rousseau is or is not a good pick, simply that I don't think it meets my definition of click-bait.

 

 

 

 

Agreed.  In some sense all these sorts of lists are "clickbait", but Simms is not one who throws out crazy takes just for the sake of clicks.  For what it's worth, in his post-draft analysis, Simms said he did not really love Rousseau, but he absolutely understood why the Bills selected him and acknowledged that it could turn out to be a great pick, especially for a guy taken at the end of round 1. 

[FilthyBeast]

I don't necessarily disagree with Sims for a couple of reasons:

 

1) It's a very low probability that both Basham and Rousseau will develop into above average/probowl caliber NFL players. Even for both to be serviceable role players/backups is highly unlikely.

 

2) For as much success this regime has had turning around the offense, they've missed badly so far on the defensive side with both draft picks and FA signings. And so far guys like Oliver, Epineza, Edmunds, Addison, etc have not justified their draft status and/or contract. And the two best players we have and resigned were not drafted by Beane and his front office/scouting team even if you want to give an assist to McDermott for White and Milano.

 

Either way hopefully one of them turns out to be a legit NFL starter and can average @ 10 sacks a season even if the other busts outright or it severely impacts this teams future especially considering how much money will soon be tied up in Allen and other key players.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

I just can’t see how someone thinks boogie will bust. His production in college and the hustle he demonstrated shows he will be at least a solid to good end. Coupled with his draft slot, the dude would need to be out of the league after his second season 

[Coach Tuesday]

Compare Basham’s combine stats to Chris Jones’ combine stats.  Jones has 3 inches and was 30 lbs heavier coming out, but they are similar types of players and Basham’s explosiveness measurables seem much higher even accounting for the difference in size.  I’m taking the over on that pick.

[swimtoga]

I’ll kick his ***** teeth in.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I just can’t see how someone thinks boogie will bust. His production in college and the hustle he demonstrated shows he will be at least a solid to good end. Coupled with his draft slot, the dude would need to be out of the league after his second season 

 

 

Well, the thing with Basham is that he will turn 24 during his rookie season..........he's unusually old for a "top prospect".......so there is something of an ACTUAL man amongst boys factor in his college tape.

 

And it's not like he was obliterating the level of competition as a 22 or 23 year old..........it's fair to question how much upside he has.

 

 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well, the thing with Basham is that he will turn 24 during his rookie season..........he's unusually old for a "top prospect".......so there is something of an ACTUAL man amongst boys factor in his college tape.

 

And it's not like he was obliterating the level of competition as a 22 or 23 year old..........it's fair to question how much upside he has.

 

 

Good point 

[WideNine]

I could not disagree more.

 

Rosseau has a very unique skillset and physical gifts you cannot teach.

 

Basham dominated in college and the only knock is that he needed a push at times.

 

Rosseau, if he had not opted out last year likely would have been an earlier 1st round pick.

 

Basham will do well with the veterans around him pushing his ceiling.

 

Both have shown they can get into the backfield and make stops behind the LOS where the Bills have struggled a bit.

 

Both are in good situations to grow and this FO generally gives their early round picks a few years too develop.

 

Waaaay to early to judge how effective they will be for this team, but makes good talk show fodder.

 

 

 

[Chandler#81]

7 hours ago, WideNine said:

I could not disagree more.

 

Rosseau has a very unique skillset and physical gifts you cannot teach.

 

Basham dominated in college and the only knock is that he needed a push at times.

 

Rosseau, if he had not opted out last year likely would have been an earlier 1st round pick.

 

Basham will do well with the veterans around him pushing his ceiling.

 

Both have shown they can get into the backfield and make stops behind the LOS where the Bills have struggled a bit.

 

Both are in good situations to grow and this FO generally gives their early round picks a few years too develop.

 

Waaaay to early to judge how effective they will be for this team, but makes good talk show fodder.

 

 

 

Unique = 1 of a kind. Something can’t be very unique..🤦‍♂️

[djp14150]

On 7/5/2021 at 7:14 AM, BillsinChesterSprings said:

Not necessarily disagreeing with Simms logic.  Picking late in rounds 1 and 2....yea, teams, any team, will have hits and misses for sure.  However, if I had to place a bet on Simms and his views vs Beane / The Bills A+ Scouting / The Roster in place to let these players grow, give me Beane and the Bills all the way.

not bothering clicking the link…

 

Rousseau was a concessions  early top 5-7 draft pick.