Will other teams make draft mistakes because of Josh?

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, Muppy said:

QB evaluators make their analysis and then choose whom they think will be a valid starter in the league long term. It of course is no exact science. They can't measure work ethic, coachability, willingness to learn and apply what they learn, football intelligence.....yes they can measure height but they cant measure a guys pride or heart either. What Josh Allen has is not only the physical tangibles but the mental and psychological intangibles PLUS the Right coaching, mentorship and surrounding cast to make his success more possible.

 

I give HIM the credit for the hard work along with willingness and natural ability to become a franchise QB for our team. Would this have been the case in a different franchise? Im glad and hope we never have to find out....career in WNY baby he's OURS. HA!

 

Actually,  you can measure work ethic, coachability, willingness to learn, and football intelligence.   The Bills interviewed Josh 3 times- Senior Bowl, in Wyoming and in Buffalo putting him through mental as well as physical drills in at least the two visits to Wyoming and Buffalo.  They talked not only with him but with his coaches.  They looked at him on the sidelines interacting with teammates. They reviewed every play in college.  They did due diligence that many clubs don't do.  If this group had scouted either Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell they would have rejected both of them.  Here are stories I've heard on both of those busts.  At the combine Leaf showed up out of shape and blew off the Colts who had the top pick.  After Leaf was drafted and the Chargers were asking him to come to SD to be introduced, he told them he was partying in Las Vegas and he would come when he was ready, not when they asked him to.  The Russell story is from his Raiders days.  He was so lazy they gave him a test.  They gave him a video tape and asked him to watch it.  When they asked if he watched it he said he did-he didn't and the reason the Raiders knew he didn't was because the tape was blank.  This staff would have caught the 2 busts flaws during the draft process.  Their due diligence allowed them to properly evaluate intangibles that another team might miss.

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Actually,  you can measure work ethic, coachability, willingness to learn, and football intelligence.   The Bills interviewed Josh 3 times- Senior Bowl, in Wyoming and in Buffalo putting him through mental as well as physical drills in at least the two visits to Wyoming and Buffalo.  They talked not only with him but with his coaches.  They looked at him on the sidelines interacting with teammates. They reviewed every play in college.  They did due diligence that many clubs don't do.  If this group had scouted either Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell they would have rejected both of them.  Here are stories I've heard on both of those busts.  At the combine Leaf showed up out of shape and blew off the Colts who had the top pick.  After Leaf was drafted and the Chargers were asking him to come to SD to be introduced, he told them he was partying in Las Vegas and he would come when he was ready, not when they asked him to.  The Russell story is from his Raiders days.  He was so lazy they gave him a test.  They gave him a video tape and asked him to watch it.  When they asked if he watched it he said he did-he didn't and the reason the Raiders knew he didn't was because the tape was blank.  This staff would have caught the 2 busts flaws during the draft process.  Their due diligence allowed them to properly evaluate intangibles that another team might miss.

There are stories about mayfield and Rosen as well that I believe would have dropped them off of the Bills board. I don’t know if they were dropped, but I would bet that they were. 

[Charles Romes]

I laugh every time I hear how the organization gave Josh the perfect environment to succeed. They did everything to destroy his career his rookie year surrounding him garbage that is essentially entirely out of the league just two years later. The starting veteran quarterback was Nate Peterman and the number one receiver was Kelvin Benjamin.The fact that Josh somehow made it through when given nothing is just another testament to Josh’s greatness.  

[C.Biscuit97]

I still think the prospect with Allen’s profile in college will fail far majority of the time. The Bills’ front office, to their extreme credit, found a 🦄 that is somehow a better quarterback in the NFL than he was at Wyoming.  I have never been happier to have my doubts proven wrong. 

[Bruffalo]

11 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

I laugh every time I hear how the organization gave Josh the perfect environment to succeed. They did everything to destroy his career his rookie year surrounding him garbage that is essentially entirely out of the league just two years later. The starting veteran quarterback was Nate Peterman and the number one receiver was Kelvin Benjamin.The fact that Josh somehow made it through when given nothing is just another testament to Josh’s greatness.  

 

I'm going to bet that they weren't planning on putting in Allen during his rookie year at all.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Because of is an odd take. He is another data point  in a high stakes process of trying to predict the future.  But josh isn’t the only unicorn here. Russ is one, Brady, Brees... Big Ben went to Miami of Ohio.

 

any time these guys end up great they are unicorns.
 

Just like turbunski isnt. See Mahommes draft concerns They  read like Joshs : 

 

Biggest concerns:

• Plays undisciplined too often.
• Inconsistent footwork, loses his base but tends to make up for it with his arm.
• Tendency to drift in the pocket in all directions when it’s not necessary.
• Bad habit of breaking from clean pockets too early when the pass rush dictates him to stay in there.
• Forces too many throws and tries for the hero play too often.
• Steep learning curve 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

 

Love was not drafted because of Josh Allen. Josh Allen had not even shown to be a franchise Qb by the time that Love was drafted. I don’t think Allen was even a driver in the decision to draft Love.

 

I think he could have been a bit of a driver. Allen was basically either going to be a huge bust or a success. Even by the end of last season it was obvious Allen was not a massive bust. He wasn't the MVP caliber QB he is today but he had already guaranteed  himself not being a huge bust. Packers could have evaluated Love and thought, "this guys is better right now than when Allen came out and he has the same upside. Allen didn't bust so good chance Love won't bust either"

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

I laugh every time I hear how the organization gave Josh the perfect environment to succeed. They did everything to destroy his career his rookie year surrounding him garbage that is essentially entirely out of the league just two years later. The starting veteran quarterback was Nate Peterman and the number one receiver was Kelvin Benjamin.The fact that Josh somehow made it through when given nothing is just another testament to Josh’s greatness.  

 

So true. Thank God they turned that around quickly!

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think Lamar Jackson would be the perfect example of a team making a "mistake" by drafting a future QB with similar skillset. 

 

Jackson is 27-7 as a starter and won league MVP in his 2nd season. I do not think his success will be long term, and I would be shocked if he wins a superbowl.

 

The next example would be Patrick Mahomes. Another QB who won league MVP in his 2nd season (and a SB mvp in 3rd season to go with it). I think his success will be long term, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't win multiple superbowls. He's really the prototype for "mostly unproven college QB from an unusual school with lots of potential". Josh will always be second fiddle to Mahomes unless (until?) he wins league MVPS and superbowl MVPs. 

 

TLDR:

Allen's success (to this point) will absolutely NOT make other teams make draft mistakes

 

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

I think Wentz had some factor with Allen going higher on draft boards. I know Wentz doesn't look great right now, but everyone was skeptical about eagles drafting unproven qb from small college, then he was lighting up the NFL. Then comes along josh from a small college. I think the haters would have been alot louder draft day if there wasn't a Wentz in the league proving small school QBs can be franchise guys at the time Allen was drafted.

54 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think Lamar Jackson would be the perfect example of a team making a "mistake" by drafting a future QB with similar skillset. 

 

Jackson is 27-7 as a starter and won league MVP in his 2nd season. I do not think his success will be long term, and I would be shocked if he wins a superbowl.

 

The next example would be Patrick Mahomes. Another QB who won league MVP in his 2nd season (and a SB mvp in 3rd season to go with it). I think his success will be long term, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't win multiple superbowls. He's really the prototype for "mostly unproven college QB from an unusual school with lots of potential". Josh will always be second fiddle to Mahomes unless (until?) he wins league MVPS and superbowl MVPs. 

 

TLDR:

Allen's success (to this point) will absolutely NOT make other teams make draft mistakes

 

 

Agreed, I think jackson at some points limits the ravens.

[eball]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 

Just to be clear the same organization drafted and same coaching staff started Nathan Peterman

 

In the FIFTH round. Not sure why that fact belongs in this thread. 

[eball]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I still think the prospect with Allen’s profile in college will fail far majority of the time. The Bills’ front office, to their extreme credit, found a 🦄 that is somehow a better quarterback in the NFL than he was at Wyoming.  I have never been happier to have my doubts proven wrong. 

You still don’t get it, or maybe you’re just not smart enough to understand it. The answer is in your own post. Allen is rare; his “profile” is not common. How many guys who didn’t grow up playing QB and had to solicit college offers even make it to a D1 program to begin with? You took the lazy way out looking at stats (like so many others) and didn’t do the digging that the Bills obviously did. And worse, even after seeing Allen’s jump from Y1 to Y2 you were still one of those predicting he had reached his peak. And you made fun of those of us who saw and predicted continuing improvement. I’m glad you’re “happy” to have been proven wrong because man, you were dead wrong, and a jerk in the process. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

Yes, but...I believe EJ Manuel, JP Losman and Trent Edwards were all coachable.  Despite different personalities, all three (I believe) were hard-working kids that wanted to improve.  They all lacked some of the key traits required to be a consistent, successful starting NFL QB, or had some kind of experience that threw off their development and they never recovered.  (Edwards had the concussion in the AZ game, EJ had Kevin Kolb slipping on a rubber mat in training camp forcing him to be a starter before he was ready, and Losman had the drafting/competition with Edwards - Losman had a full semi-successful year as a starter after his broken leg, so I don't count that).

 

I don't think any of these 3 had close to the package of skills that Allen has, which will make him one of the best in the business, but if one or all of them had come along during the McDermott/Daboll Bills of the last 3 years, do you think any of them might have become a serviceable NFL starter?

 

 

IMO ... pure opinion and I recognize that ... Edwards and Losman might have made it under better conditions, Edwards maybe in particular.

 

If someone disagrees, I would totally respect that.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

I laugh every time I hear how the organization gave Josh the perfect environment to succeed. They did everything to destroy his career his rookie year surrounding him garbage that is essentially entirely out of the league just two years later. The starting veteran quarterback was Nate Peterman and the number one receiver was Kelvin Benjamin.The fact that Josh somehow made it through when given nothing is just another testament to Josh’s greatness.  

 

 

Come on. Nobody thinks he had "the perfect environment." Not even now. What they gave him was an environment where he was supposed to sit the first year while they were deep in the trough of that rebuild, and after that gave him consistent year-by-year improvement in the players around him. An environment that now has become excellent.

 

Beane has admitted that they screwed up the QB situation that first year, saying that when they got rid of McCarron they should have brought in Anderson immediately at that point.

 

 

[muppy]

4 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Actually,  you can measure work ethic, coachability, willingness to learn, and football intelligence.   The Bills interviewed Josh 3 times- Senior Bowl, in Wyoming and in Buffalo putting him through mental as well as physical drills in at least the two visits to Wyoming and Buffalo.  They talked not only with him but with his coaches.  They looked at him on the sidelines interacting with teammates. They reviewed every play in college.  They did due diligence that many clubs don't do.  If this group had scouted either Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell they would have rejected both of them.  Here are stories I've heard on both of those busts.  At the combine Leaf showed up out of shape and blew off the Colts who had the top pick.  After Leaf was drafted and the Chargers were asking him to come to SD to be introduced, he told them he was partying in Las Vegas and he would come when he was ready, not when they asked him to.  The Russell story is from his Raiders days.  He was so lazy they gave him a test.  They gave him a video tape and asked him to watch it.  When they asked if he watched it he said he did-he didn't and the reason the Raiders knew he didn't was because the tape was blank.  This staff would have caught the 2 busts flaws during the draft process.  Their due diligence allowed them to properly evaluate intangibles that another team might miss.

thank you for the clarification and insight you gave. I guess in reply I would say that the things I  said can't be evaluated I should have said they cant know how far those positive attributes  will go as a professional QB to advance his game. And to what extent those attributes will make him a franchise level guy. . If it were an exact science there would be no busts and QB's that were hard working, coachable and teachable would all excel but of course not all do. Desire isnt the entire story.  I read someone call Josh Allen a Unicorn in just how much he improved from when he was drafted. To use a draft term Josh Allens "ceiling" was seen as high as well as his potential floor Low. I think now the consensus is he may have blown off the ceiling 😉 Are there many Josh Allen types around? Yeah Id say thats a definite No. If there were it wouldnt have taken the Bills 20 years to find him.

[Thurman#1]

57 minutes ago, eball said:

You still don’t get it, or maybe you’re just not smart enough to understand it. The answer is in your own post. Allen is rare; his “profile” is not common. How many guys who didn’t grow up playing QB and had to solicit college offers even make it to a D1 program to begin with? You took the lazy way out looking at stats (like so many others) and didn’t do the digging that the Bills obviously did. And worse, even after seeing Allen’s jump from Y1 to Y2 you were still one of those predicting he had reached his peak. And you made fun of those of us who saw and predicted continuing improvement. I’m glad you’re “happy” to have been proven wrong because man, you were dead wrong, and a jerk in the process. 

 

 

Rare guys fail too. I haven't followed the argument here, I'm purely reacting to your post here.

 

And yeah, his profile isn't common. But Wentz and Kaepernick are much the same kinds of rare, in terms of coming out of small programs and being hard workers.

 

At that level, everyone's rare. While there are certainly types, these guys are all individual, all quite different and rare.

 

I thought well before the Bills drafted him that he would have a shot, and that he was worth a top ten pick. I even thought the Bills might (not "would," I'm not that smart) take him because of the Newton comparisons and how they'd brought Cam along in Carolina. I didn't judge him by stats. But pretty much everyone out there runs a very real risk of failure. Maybe a tiny fraction of guys seem like sure things, the Andrew Lucks and Peyton Mannings, but just about nobody else. Things can go wrong.

 

Or right. It's not as predictable as people like to think. And IMO an extremely large part of it is putting the guy in a good environment.

 

What good drafters (and Beane certainly does appear to be a good drafter) do is maximize the chances they get the right guy and then support the hell out of him. But none of that is any guarantee. The single thing you can't know is how well a guy can adapt to processing huge amounts of information, and making extremely good decisions in extremely short periods of time. College guys see greatly simplified situations, offenses and defenses and slower athletes. There's no way to know how the decision-making will go. Some guys with terrific leadership, commitment and work habits never develop that extremely rare ability.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Say what??? He started 25 games in college.  Most QB prospects only play two years of college.  Joe Burrow 28 starts. Kyle Murray 14 starts.

 

 

Yes. But he was still raw, without question. And that isn't some new assertion, it's been the consensus, and the correct one, since before the draft process.

 

Raw has a lot of components. It can't be reduced to just games played. Josh was raw as a saddle sore.

 

But he developed.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Thurman#1

[cage]

4 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

I laugh every time I hear how the organization gave Josh the perfect environment to succeed. They did everything to destroy his career his rookie year surrounding him garbage that is essentially entirely out of the league just two years later. The starting veteran quarterback was Nate Peterman and the number one receiver was Kelvin Benjamin.The fact that Josh somehow made it through when given nothing is just another testament to Josh’s greatness.  

 

To say nothing of not having a qualified QB coach (David Culley had been a WR coach), nor a veteran in the QB room (Derek Anderson brought in later in season).  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

There are stories about mayfield and Rosen as well that I believe would have dropped them off of the Bills board. I don’t know if they were dropped, but I would bet that they were. 

 

I posted on here after the draft that I was told categorically neither were on the Bills board by draft day. The Bills wanted Josh Allen or Sam Darnold. 

[Chandler#81]

12 hours ago, BisonMan said:

We've heard it over and over again. Josh Allen's growth from year 2 to year 3 is unprecedented. Nonetheless, it's likely that teams will look to repeat the Bills' formula by picking a QB with the dreaded "potential" without seeming to understand the internal and environmental factors that allowed Allen to thrive. 

 

Internal

Aside from his physical skills, Allen has two traits that have allowed him to have this massive improvement. First, Allen has a massive chip on his shoulders after being turned down by every college program when he came out of high school and got only one offer after his stint in JUCO. People think Tom Brady has a chip because he was drafted so late coming out of Michigan? Josh has been carrying this chip on his shoulder since high school. Second, Allen is a lot more studious a QB than people have given him credit for. His smarts have allowed him the ability learn more quickly than a lot of other players who never seem to "get it". Even this year, Allen has adjusted to changing defensive strategies to win games down the stretch. His drive has also allowed him to work more on his "craft" to become a better thrower of the ball. 

 

Environmental

The Bills obviously have a very strong coaching staff and culture. That allows players the support they need to mature and learn. The team also has put in the pieces around him to allow him to succeed and grow with what his potential allows. He's often compared to Roethlisberger, but Pittsburgh surrounded Ben with a strong running game to protect his lack of skills early in his career. The Bills created an environment to stretch Allen's skills. 

 

I can see other teams with a weaker culture and less stable management reaching for QBs with "potential" in the coming years to find a Josh Allen but his background, internal drive and skillset are very hard to replicate. Add to that, the difficulty of creating the right team around him makes what the Bills have done, very unique in my memory. I don't really see a ceiling for Allen at this point. He could easily get even better with more experience. 

 

Other teams should be very wary of trying to replicate what has happened in Buffalo. I see a lot of mistakes being made in the coming years with teams chasing the next Josh Allen.

Something can’t be very unique. It’s either unique or it isn’t.

You're Welcome.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

58 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Something can’t be very unique. It’s either unique or it isn’t.

You're Welcome.

 

 

Uniquely unique then? 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I think references of good character from religious officials, community leaders, and former teachers are sadly underutilized as evaluators. 

*
🙄

Edited December 17, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[H2o]

QB is by far the hardest position to evaluate in a draft class. Organizational and scheme fit are almost as important as talent also. Josh was taken by the right organization who  not only put the pieces around him, but they also have been patient through the growth/maturation process. Lamar Jackson was taken by the perfect organization as far as the coaching staff he inherited and scheme fit for his skill set. You also have to really dig behind the scenes to get into the minds of these young men. You have to research their backgrounds. You have to go beyond the record, the physical abilities, the flaws, and figure out the true character of the individual. Is he a guy, like Josh, who is focused on becoming the best NFL QB he can be? What's their work ethic like off of the field when there's no one setting up a game plan or no meetings to attend? What is their mental capacity and how do they process the information seen or given to them? All of this factors in. It reminds me of the story about JA and Darnold working with Jordan Palmer in the offseason. Darnold gets something right a couple of times and he's done. JA works on correcting things over and over and over for hours on end until he feels it has become 2nd nature. These are the things that breed greatness, all the behind the scenes activities that a player does when there is no one pushing them but themselves. You have to find out which prospects not only have the talent, but the mentality to be great. It's easier said than done. 

[eball]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Rare guys fail too. I haven't followed the argument here, I'm purely reacting to your post here.

 

And yeah, his profile isn't common. But Wentz and Kaepernick are much the same kinds of rare, in terms of coming out of small programs and being hard workers.

 

At that level, everyone's rare. While there are certainly types, these guys are all individual, all quite different and rare.

 

Allen’s path to the NFL is extremely uncommon.  I don’t need to recount that path here but it is rarer than rare.  It was absolutely necessary to investigate his background and what “makes him tick” to understand whether or not you thought he could realize that enormous potential.  He is truly a unicorn, which is the reason why EVEN NOW you have media types knocking him.  I don’t expect to see anyone like him again soon, and perhaps ever.

[Gordio]

12 hours ago, GLP said:

The Giants did it with Daniel Jones (Danny Dimes); he's 6'5" - 221 lbs and out of Duke. His current NFL record is 7-17. Is he the long-term answer for the Giants, probably not. The Giants took a swing and missed. Teams will continue to do that. All draft picks are a gamble. Some you hit (Brady), some you don't (Aaron Maybin) ouch that one hurts.

 

 

Jones was a major reach, so was Haskins.  A lot of it is luck and how the QB draft is the year a team needs a QB.  A good franchise doesnt get cornholed into taking a QB even though they need one if there isnt one with a high grade the year they are drafting.  We had our horrid draft year when we ended up with EJ in the first when he should of been drafted no higher than in the 3rd round.  This exact situation never turns out well as it didnt turn out well for us & it is looking more & more like it is not going to turn out well for the Giants or Wash.  

 

The thing about Allen is, his tangibles are off the charts & his intangibles are pretty dam good too. It is this why Allen is succeeding.   I would of took Rosen, glad they didnt.

[Gordio]

12 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

Yes, but...I believe EJ Manuel, JP Losman and Trent Edwards were all coachable.  Despite different personalities, all three (I believe) were hard-working kids that wanted to improve.  They all lacked some of the key traits required to be a consistent, successful starting NFL QB, or had some kind of experience that threw off their development and they never recovered.  (Edwards had the concussion in the AZ game, EJ had Kevin Kolb slipping on a rubber mat in training camp forcing him to be a starter before he was ready, and Losman had the drafting/competition with Edwards - Losman had a full semi-successful year as a starter after his broken leg, so I don't count that).

 

I don't think any of these 3 had close to the package of skills that Allen has, which will make him one of the best in the business, but if one or all of them had come along during the McDermott/Daboll Bills of the last 3 years, do you think any of them might have become a serviceable NFL starter?

 

Once again, none of those qbs mentioned above had the talent of Allen.  Not even close. 

 

& BTW, Allen was thrown in there before he was ready too.  The good ones persivere in the face of adversity, the EJ Manuels of the world are out of the league in 3 years.

 

[VaMilBill]

One thing that makes Josh a very good player is his high situational awareness. He knows the down and distance, he has great pocket awareness, he knows when the clock needs to be run and when it needs to be stopped. 
 

obviously, he occasionally messes these things up like his slide on the last drive that was just short of the first down against the Steelers. 
 

greatest example is his play that made Bills fans love him : the leap over Barr. It was 3rd and 10 and Barr was in great position to stop him well short of the 1st down marker. He leaps him and easily gets the 1st down. 
 

and that goes for countless other situations. He doesn’t take the useless check down when it’s meaningless. He takes the yards when he needs them. 
 

even when he flops a little for penalties is a great example too

[Nihilarian]

The thing that messed up Josh was that coming out of high school he was a 180lb 6'3'' scrawny kid that no big football college wanted to offer a scholarship.

 

This prompted Allen to attend a junior college in which the late bloomer grew a bunch to 6'5'' 240 lbs and after two seasons at Junior he thought every big school would want him now. NOPE. So he sent out nearly 2k emails to colleges and only two responded and one rescinded once they found out he was talking to the other. Kind of unique situation. 

 

First, Allen grew up on a farm so he is no stranger to hard work as he was up at dawn and in the fields all day. I know I'd rather play football too. 

 

Second, if you watched Allen at Wyoming he was basically carrying the team to bowl games because they had a bunch of nobodies on the rosters. In fact his last season at Wyoming every player that had touched the ball on offense was gone. So he was dealing with a bunch of rookies. Allen had a burning desire to win and you could see it back then with his "hero ball". 

 

Josh Allen also scored a 37 on the wonderlic, same as Tony Romo. Tom Brady scored a 33, Peyton Manning a 28.  Super smart, Jim Kelly tough. 

 

His HC at Wyoming used to gloat that no team could defend against Allen's arm as no spot on the field was safe.

 

There was talk that Cleveland was going for Josh Allen #1 overall because of his physical skill. Every team knew Allen was raw and not ready to start. Let's not forget that someone released some derogatory remarks made by Allen while in high school and this might have made the Jets, Browns shy away from Allen. Those teams also wanted a QB who was more ready to start right away. Lucky us! 

 

If Allen had gotten into a big time college program like Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or even Jackson he would have been the #1 overall no question about it. Probably rated like John Elway / Andrew Luck. 

 

 

Let me add the biggest concern with Allen were his accuracy issues and everyone would say... you can't fix that! Kyle Boller anyone? 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/03/mike_mayock_on_josh_allens_nfl.html

 

"If you're John Dorsey with Cleveland at one and four, you've got to look at (Allen),'' Mayock said during the workout on NFL Network. "He can play indoors, outdoors, all 32 stadiums, cold weather, warm weather, big hands, big arm.''

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Nihilarian

[nucci]

"Massive chip on his shoulder" is so overrated. These guys are competitive athletes that want to succeed

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Obviously you didn't understand the topic.

 

Well, leaving  aside the silly notion that a 2 year starter with 500 career yards passing in the MWC getting selected #7 in the NFL draft would have a chip on his shoulder, Allen was drafted to be the franchise QB ASAP, because there was nothing like that on the roster.

 

Do the Packers not have a HOF QB entrenched for the foreseeable future?  Did the Packers not salvage falling rock Rodgers out of the Draft Night Green Room dumpster with Favre firmly in control of the starter's job?   Do the Packers not have a "very strong coaching staff and culture"?

 

Yeah, the Love comparison makes no sense.

[Big Turk]

Absolutely. Allen is a unique case I think.

 

He had 10K reps or more fewer at QB than most other kids do when he got drafted meaning he had far more room to grow and we were seeing someone who among what scouts would call a "raw" prospect someone who was "raw" compared to them.

 

His drive and work ethic are second to none as is his coachability and willingness to leave no stone unturned even working extremely hard on his mechanics. That is something a lot of prospects won't do. It's one thing to study film and learn systems and entirely another to be open to changing everything that got you to the NFL. 

 

I think a lot of teams will look at a prospect that has traits like Allen but will fail to realize Allen's unique circumstances are what truly allowed him to metamorphosis into what he is today.

[Doc]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

We don't know yet that was a mistake. Let's allow the kid to take a few snaps before we write him off.....

 

It was just a prediction.  But yes, I should know better and wait before pronouncing that it will bring a regime down. 

 

49 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Well, leaving  aside the silly notion that a 2 year starter with 500 career yards passing in the MWC getting selected #7 in the NFL draft would have a chip on his shoulder, Allen was drafted to be the franchise QB ASAP, because there was nothing like that on the roster.

 

Do the Packers not have a HOF QB entrenched for the foreseeable future?  Did the Packers not salvage falling rock Rodgers out of the Draft Night Green Room dumpster with Favre firmly in control of the starter's job?   Do the Packers not have a "very strong coaching staff and culture"?

 

Yeah, the Love comparison makes no sense.

 

Opinion duly noted.

[cage]

This is a hugely interesting debate and one of the few multi-page threads that I read in its entirety.  So much goes into scoring with that right player.  We've had other threads where we lamented that we didn't pick Mahomes or Russell Wilson.  You would have to wonder if they would have become all that in other situations (particularly with the staff we had when Wilson was selected).  

 

I've never seen an article that tried to do a comprehensive examination of QB selection model grading all players taken in the last few decades across a composite of physical, mental, emotional, social and so forth.  And then testing it out.  Would make a hell of a dissertation!

Edited December 17, 2020 by cage

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

What constitutes a 'mistake'?  A draft expert's mistake might be different than Josh Rosen's idea of a mistake.

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

Once again, none of those qbs mentioned above had the talent of Allen.  Not even close. 

 

& BTW, Allen was thrown in there before he was ready too.  The good ones persivere in the face of adversity, the EJ Manuels of the world are out of the league in 3 years.

 

None of those QBs were able to incorporate the knowledge from their coaches, if they had they would have had markedly more success. They had sufficient physical talent, but Talent is more than physical attributes, you need the cognitive talent even more, without that Josh does not succeed.

 

Go Bills!!!

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I don't think Josh Allen "fell".  He played at Wyoming in the Mountain West.  The conference is marginal after Boise State.  Being the 7th pick in the draft coming out of a program like Wyoming against the competition he was playing against is a tremendous achievement.  

Even the Bills did not meet him until in the Senior bowl. 

[Nextmanup]

19 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Other teams will ALWAYS make monstrous QB draft mistakes.

 

Look at Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

 

Who  knows Darnold could be with a real organization.

 

The match with Allen  with Buffalo was , from the draft day.   Did we get lucky, take an educated well risked choice and did Beane gamble his credibility, absolutely, no doubt or shortage of Allen Haters.

Too early to declare Rosen and Darnold "monstrous draft mistakes".  The situations each found themselves in would have done in any QB.  Both will probably emerge, down the road, in better conditions.

 

Look at the renaissance Tannehill is enjoying with a change of scenery and a different team makeup.

[BruceVilanch]

19 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

Chad Pennington

[djp14150]

19 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I always wondered about JP Losman.  He was talented guy - mobile, cannon arm, etc. and seemed to have a strong work ethic (despite a prior reputation for being a bit brash and cocky).  He had one decent season and then it all fell apart.  If he had been in the right system with the right coaching and development, would he have made it?  Note that by the time he got to other teams later in his career (Raiders, Dolphins), he was already "broken" and was beyond recovery.  I suppose you could say the same thing for EJ Manuel, although his accuracy was almost beyond horrible.  A guy like Tannehill is a good example of a guy who flashed talent but didn't really shine until he was in the right situation.  Fortunately for him, he got to Tennessee and got fixed before he was beyond repair.

 

Some guys have the physical ability (arm and/or mobility) AND the mental ability (to quickly process information/read a defense/sense pressure, etc.) and some only have one or the other.  Guys that only have the physical ability, but not the mental ability, usually get 2-4 shots with various teams that think they can fix the guy before they eventually flame out.  A third factor is work ethic/attitude.  Some talented guys who lacked this fell far short of their potential - Jeff George, Jay Cutler and Josh Rosen.  Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

 

Allen clearly has all three and in spades, PLUS the Bills have developed him properly in the right environment for success.  It's great to see happening this in a Buffalo franchise!

 

I realize that my post has wandered into a few different directions and away from the original topic, but these are the things that have come to mind (and I'm procrastinating some work that needs to get done).  Thanks for indulging me.

forgot...Lodman had what 5 different OCs over 5 yrs

 

i don’t care how good you are..no QBs can survive that.

 

you need stability n coaching and a system that fits what you can do.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Who says it already hasn't been done?

 

Broncos want to mimic this part of Josh Allen’s development with Drew Lock

https://sports.yahoo.com/broncos-want-mimic-part-josh-162722401.html

 

 

Ahead of their meeting with the Buffalo Bills, the Denver Broncos know a force of nature is coming toward them and its name is Josh Allen.    

 

The Bills quarterback is having nothing short of a breakdown ( doesn't he mean breakout?) year and is a big reason why Buffalo is 10-3 heading into Denver. At 5-8, the Broncos have had their struggles and hope their young QB, Drew Lock, can have a similar future.

 

[msw2112]

  20 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

Chad Pennington

 

I agree that Pennington is one of these "type" of guys, but left him off the list of names because he was mostly a starter throughout his career.  Good player, but a very weak arm.  If he had a stronger arm, he could have been really good.