Will other teams make draft mistakes because of Josh?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I think references of good character from religious officials, community leaders, and former teachers are sadly underutilized as evaluators. 

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Edited December 17, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[H2o]

QB is by far the hardest position to evaluate in a draft class. Organizational and scheme fit are almost as important as talent also. Josh was taken by the right organization who  not only put the pieces around him, but they also have been patient through the growth/maturation process. Lamar Jackson was taken by the perfect organization as far as the coaching staff he inherited and scheme fit for his skill set. You also have to really dig behind the scenes to get into the minds of these young men. You have to research their backgrounds. You have to go beyond the record, the physical abilities, the flaws, and figure out the true character of the individual. Is he a guy, like Josh, who is focused on becoming the best NFL QB he can be? What's their work ethic like off of the field when there's no one setting up a game plan or no meetings to attend? What is their mental capacity and how do they process the information seen or given to them? All of this factors in. It reminds me of the story about JA and Darnold working with Jordan Palmer in the offseason. Darnold gets something right a couple of times and he's done. JA works on correcting things over and over and over for hours on end until he feels it has become 2nd nature. These are the things that breed greatness, all the behind the scenes activities that a player does when there is no one pushing them but themselves. You have to find out which prospects not only have the talent, but the mentality to be great. It's easier said than done. 

[eball]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Rare guys fail too. I haven't followed the argument here, I'm purely reacting to your post here.

 

And yeah, his profile isn't common. But Wentz and Kaepernick are much the same kinds of rare, in terms of coming out of small programs and being hard workers.

 

At that level, everyone's rare. While there are certainly types, these guys are all individual, all quite different and rare.

 

Allen’s path to the NFL is extremely uncommon.  I don’t need to recount that path here but it is rarer than rare.  It was absolutely necessary to investigate his background and what “makes him tick” to understand whether or not you thought he could realize that enormous potential.  He is truly a unicorn, which is the reason why EVEN NOW you have media types knocking him.  I don’t expect to see anyone like him again soon, and perhaps ever.

[Gordio]

12 hours ago, GLP said:

The Giants did it with Daniel Jones (Danny Dimes); he's 6'5" - 221 lbs and out of Duke. His current NFL record is 7-17. Is he the long-term answer for the Giants, probably not. The Giants took a swing and missed. Teams will continue to do that. All draft picks are a gamble. Some you hit (Brady), some you don't (Aaron Maybin) ouch that one hurts.

 

 

Jones was a major reach, so was Haskins.  A lot of it is luck and how the QB draft is the year a team needs a QB.  A good franchise doesnt get cornholed into taking a QB even though they need one if there isnt one with a high grade the year they are drafting.  We had our horrid draft year when we ended up with EJ in the first when he should of been drafted no higher than in the 3rd round.  This exact situation never turns out well as it didnt turn out well for us & it is looking more & more like it is not going to turn out well for the Giants or Wash.  

 

The thing about Allen is, his tangibles are off the charts & his intangibles are pretty dam good too. It is this why Allen is succeeding.   I would of took Rosen, glad they didnt.

[Gordio]

12 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

Yes, but...I believe EJ Manuel, JP Losman and Trent Edwards were all coachable.  Despite different personalities, all three (I believe) were hard-working kids that wanted to improve.  They all lacked some of the key traits required to be a consistent, successful starting NFL QB, or had some kind of experience that threw off their development and they never recovered.  (Edwards had the concussion in the AZ game, EJ had Kevin Kolb slipping on a rubber mat in training camp forcing him to be a starter before he was ready, and Losman had the drafting/competition with Edwards - Losman had a full semi-successful year as a starter after his broken leg, so I don't count that).

 

I don't think any of these 3 had close to the package of skills that Allen has, which will make him one of the best in the business, but if one or all of them had come along during the McDermott/Daboll Bills of the last 3 years, do you think any of them might have become a serviceable NFL starter?

 

Once again, none of those qbs mentioned above had the talent of Allen.  Not even close. 

 

& BTW, Allen was thrown in there before he was ready too.  The good ones persivere in the face of adversity, the EJ Manuels of the world are out of the league in 3 years.

 

[VaMilBill]

One thing that makes Josh a very good player is his high situational awareness. He knows the down and distance, he has great pocket awareness, he knows when the clock needs to be run and when it needs to be stopped. 
 

obviously, he occasionally messes these things up like his slide on the last drive that was just short of the first down against the Steelers. 
 

greatest example is his play that made Bills fans love him : the leap over Barr. It was 3rd and 10 and Barr was in great position to stop him well short of the 1st down marker. He leaps him and easily gets the 1st down. 
 

and that goes for countless other situations. He doesn’t take the useless check down when it’s meaningless. He takes the yards when he needs them. 
 

even when he flops a little for penalties is a great example too

[Nihilarian]

The thing that messed up Josh was that coming out of high school he was a 180lb 6'3'' scrawny kid that no big football college wanted to offer a scholarship.

 

This prompted Allen to attend a junior college in which the late bloomer grew a bunch to 6'5'' 240 lbs and after two seasons at Junior he thought every big school would want him now. NOPE. So he sent out nearly 2k emails to colleges and only two responded and one rescinded once they found out he was talking to the other. Kind of unique situation. 

 

First, Allen grew up on a farm so he is no stranger to hard work as he was up at dawn and in the fields all day. I know I'd rather play football too. 

 

Second, if you watched Allen at Wyoming he was basically carrying the team to bowl games because they had a bunch of nobodies on the rosters. In fact his last season at Wyoming every player that had touched the ball on offense was gone. So he was dealing with a bunch of rookies. Allen had a burning desire to win and you could see it back then with his "hero ball". 

 

Josh Allen also scored a 37 on the wonderlic, same as Tony Romo. Tom Brady scored a 33, Peyton Manning a 28.  Super smart, Jim Kelly tough. 

 

His HC at Wyoming used to gloat that no team could defend against Allen's arm as no spot on the field was safe.

 

There was talk that Cleveland was going for Josh Allen #1 overall because of his physical skill. Every team knew Allen was raw and not ready to start. Let's not forget that someone released some derogatory remarks made by Allen while in high school and this might have made the Jets, Browns shy away from Allen. Those teams also wanted a QB who was more ready to start right away. Lucky us! 

 

If Allen had gotten into a big time college program like Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or even Jackson he would have been the #1 overall no question about it. Probably rated like John Elway / Andrew Luck. 

 

 

Let me add the biggest concern with Allen were his accuracy issues and everyone would say... you can't fix that! Kyle Boller anyone? 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/03/mike_mayock_on_josh_allens_nfl.html

 

"If you're John Dorsey with Cleveland at one and four, you've got to look at (Allen),'' Mayock said during the workout on NFL Network. "He can play indoors, outdoors, all 32 stadiums, cold weather, warm weather, big hands, big arm.''

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Nihilarian

[nucci]

"Massive chip on his shoulder" is so overrated. These guys are competitive athletes that want to succeed

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Obviously you didn't understand the topic.

 

Well, leaving  aside the silly notion that a 2 year starter with 500 career yards passing in the MWC getting selected #7 in the NFL draft would have a chip on his shoulder, Allen was drafted to be the franchise QB ASAP, because there was nothing like that on the roster.

 

Do the Packers not have a HOF QB entrenched for the foreseeable future?  Did the Packers not salvage falling rock Rodgers out of the Draft Night Green Room dumpster with Favre firmly in control of the starter's job?   Do the Packers not have a "very strong coaching staff and culture"?

 

Yeah, the Love comparison makes no sense.

[Big Turk]

Absolutely. Allen is a unique case I think.

 

He had 10K reps or more fewer at QB than most other kids do when he got drafted meaning he had far more room to grow and we were seeing someone who among what scouts would call a "raw" prospect someone who was "raw" compared to them.

 

His drive and work ethic are second to none as is his coachability and willingness to leave no stone unturned even working extremely hard on his mechanics. That is something a lot of prospects won't do. It's one thing to study film and learn systems and entirely another to be open to changing everything that got you to the NFL. 

 

I think a lot of teams will look at a prospect that has traits like Allen but will fail to realize Allen's unique circumstances are what truly allowed him to metamorphosis into what he is today.

[Doc]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

We don't know yet that was a mistake. Let's allow the kid to take a few snaps before we write him off.....

 

It was just a prediction.  But yes, I should know better and wait before pronouncing that it will bring a regime down. 

 

49 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Well, leaving  aside the silly notion that a 2 year starter with 500 career yards passing in the MWC getting selected #7 in the NFL draft would have a chip on his shoulder, Allen was drafted to be the franchise QB ASAP, because there was nothing like that on the roster.

 

Do the Packers not have a HOF QB entrenched for the foreseeable future?  Did the Packers not salvage falling rock Rodgers out of the Draft Night Green Room dumpster with Favre firmly in control of the starter's job?   Do the Packers not have a "very strong coaching staff and culture"?

 

Yeah, the Love comparison makes no sense.

 

Opinion duly noted.

[cage]

This is a hugely interesting debate and one of the few multi-page threads that I read in its entirety.  So much goes into scoring with that right player.  We've had other threads where we lamented that we didn't pick Mahomes or Russell Wilson.  You would have to wonder if they would have become all that in other situations (particularly with the staff we had when Wilson was selected).  

 

I've never seen an article that tried to do a comprehensive examination of QB selection model grading all players taken in the last few decades across a composite of physical, mental, emotional, social and so forth.  And then testing it out.  Would make a hell of a dissertation!

Edited December 17, 2020 by cage

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

What constitutes a 'mistake'?  A draft expert's mistake might be different than Josh Rosen's idea of a mistake.

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

Once again, none of those qbs mentioned above had the talent of Allen.  Not even close. 

 

& BTW, Allen was thrown in there before he was ready too.  The good ones persivere in the face of adversity, the EJ Manuels of the world are out of the league in 3 years.

 

None of those QBs were able to incorporate the knowledge from their coaches, if they had they would have had markedly more success. They had sufficient physical talent, but Talent is more than physical attributes, you need the cognitive talent even more, without that Josh does not succeed.

 

Go Bills!!!

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I don't think Josh Allen "fell".  He played at Wyoming in the Mountain West.  The conference is marginal after Boise State.  Being the 7th pick in the draft coming out of a program like Wyoming against the competition he was playing against is a tremendous achievement.  

Even the Bills did not meet him until in the Senior bowl. 

[Nextmanup]

19 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Other teams will ALWAYS make monstrous QB draft mistakes.

 

Look at Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

 

Who  knows Darnold could be with a real organization.

 

The match with Allen  with Buffalo was , from the draft day.   Did we get lucky, take an educated well risked choice and did Beane gamble his credibility, absolutely, no doubt or shortage of Allen Haters.

Too early to declare Rosen and Darnold "monstrous draft mistakes".  The situations each found themselves in would have done in any QB.  Both will probably emerge, down the road, in better conditions.

 

Look at the renaissance Tannehill is enjoying with a change of scenery and a different team makeup.

[BruceVilanch]

19 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

Chad Pennington

[djp14150]

19 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I always wondered about JP Losman.  He was talented guy - mobile, cannon arm, etc. and seemed to have a strong work ethic (despite a prior reputation for being a bit brash and cocky).  He had one decent season and then it all fell apart.  If he had been in the right system with the right coaching and development, would he have made it?  Note that by the time he got to other teams later in his career (Raiders, Dolphins), he was already "broken" and was beyond recovery.  I suppose you could say the same thing for EJ Manuel, although his accuracy was almost beyond horrible.  A guy like Tannehill is a good example of a guy who flashed talent but didn't really shine until he was in the right situation.  Fortunately for him, he got to Tennessee and got fixed before he was beyond repair.

 

Some guys have the physical ability (arm and/or mobility) AND the mental ability (to quickly process information/read a defense/sense pressure, etc.) and some only have one or the other.  Guys that only have the physical ability, but not the mental ability, usually get 2-4 shots with various teams that think they can fix the guy before they eventually flame out.  A third factor is work ethic/attitude.  Some talented guys who lacked this fell far short of their potential - Jeff George, Jay Cutler and Josh Rosen.  Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

 

Allen clearly has all three and in spades, PLUS the Bills have developed him properly in the right environment for success.  It's great to see happening this in a Buffalo franchise!

 

I realize that my post has wandered into a few different directions and away from the original topic, but these are the things that have come to mind (and I'm procrastinating some work that needs to get done).  Thanks for indulging me.

forgot...Lodman had what 5 different OCs over 5 yrs

 

i don’t care how good you are..no QBs can survive that.

 

you need stability n coaching and a system that fits what you can do.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Who says it already hasn't been done?

 

Broncos want to mimic this part of Josh Allen’s development with Drew Lock

https://sports.yahoo.com/broncos-want-mimic-part-josh-162722401.html

 

 

Ahead of their meeting with the Buffalo Bills, the Denver Broncos know a force of nature is coming toward them and its name is Josh Allen.    

 

The Bills quarterback is having nothing short of a breakdown ( doesn't he mean breakout?) year and is a big reason why Buffalo is 10-3 heading into Denver. At 5-8, the Broncos have had their struggles and hope their young QB, Drew Lock, can have a similar future.

 

[msw2112]

  20 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

Chad Pennington

 

I agree that Pennington is one of these "type" of guys, but left him off the list of names because he was mostly a starter throughout his career.  Good player, but a very weak arm.  If he had a stronger arm, he could have been really good.