The “Trap Game” Is A Myth!

[eball]

It seems we have to address this every season, but there is NO data to back up the trap game or letdown game myth.  Bottom line — there is no evidence that good teams beat bad teams at a higher or lower rate when they play a good team the week before or the week after that game.

 

This is an old article but it tells the story.

 

Stop the madness.

[SoCal Deek]

So you’re saying we have a chance?

[sherpa]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So you’re saying we have a chance?

 

Obvious trap question.

[Don Otreply]

Madness? One step beyond, Our house, never stop Madness! 
 

 

Go Bills!!!

[wjag]

23 minutes ago, eball said:

It seems we have to address this every season, but there is NO data to back up the trap game or letdown game myth.  Bottom line — there is no evidence that good teams beat bad teams at a higher or lower rate when they play a good team the week before or the week after that game.

 

This is an old article but it tells the story.

 

Stop the madness.

 

It very well maybe a myth, but by gosh there is sure a crap ton of circumstantial evidence out there. 🙂 

Edited December 16, 2020 by wjag

[Steptide]

This isn't a trap game. This is a "win this game and we win the division" game. I highly doubt the bills are thinking about a bad Patriots team the following week. There is no need. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I think the idea of a trap game, if true, would come partially from the lack of concentration and attention to detail coming from the HC.  I don't see this with McD

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

Is it not outside the realm of possibility that some locker rooms become comfortable with the idea of victory; and in such a mindset, become less focused on the work needed?

 

There may be no statistical evidence, but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that some teams fall victim to this mindset.  
 

I can recall teams in Gailey Era and the Marrone Era, and 1 Super Bowl, where this was clearly the case. 

[snafu]

44 minutes ago, eball said:

It seems we have to address this every season, but there is NO data to back up the trap game or letdown game myth.  Bottom line — there is no evidence that good teams beat bad teams at a higher or lower rate when they play a good team the week before or the week after that game.

 

This is an old article but it tells the story.

 

Stop the madness.

 

What about results against the spread?  That’s where I usually hear people talk about trap games — when making predictions about where to put bets. Straight up, better teams beat inferior opponents, that’s a given. 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

New Jersey Devils seemed to be masters at it.

[Brennan Huff]

Has anyone had the McRib at McDonald’s? I had one the other night and it was even better than I remembered. It had probably been 10 years in between sandwiches 

[Seasons1992]

4 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Has anyone had the McRib at McDonald’s? I had one the other night and it was even better than I remembered. It had probably been 10 years in between sandwiches 

 

I grew up on these, and I really want to try one again, and then feel like garbage soon after. The flavor!

[NewEra]

It exists in the betting world.

 

One of my best friends, whom I’ve known for 20 years now, is a professionally sports bettor.  That’s all he does to make his money.  We exchange texts daily regarding lines that we like.  He uses the term “trap game” at least 2-3 times a month. In many cases, i scoff at the notion that the game he’s talking about would be a trap game and I don’t bet it. Low and behold, his prediction will come through and he’s laughing all the way to the bank.  

The term may be a myth, from MY experience, it absolutely exists.  

17 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

What about results against the spread?  That’s where I usually hear people talk about trap games — when making predictions about where to put bets. Straight up, better teams beat inferior opponents, that’s a given. 

 

 

This is where it comes from.  This being a trap game for the bills doesn’t necessarily mean we will lose, but that we won’t cover the spread.  Lose in some cases, but that it’s the prediction of the “trap”

[SoCal Deek]

The Bills haven’t clinched anything yet. How is this a Trap Game? If anything, this is the most important of the three they have left. Win this one and then you can ‘rest’ might be the closest I’d come to a less than a must win message. 

[Wo-Bah]

49 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Madness? One step beyond, Our house, never stop Madness! 
 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

I got it.

[TPS]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It exists in the betting world.

 

One of my best friends, whom I’ve known for 20 years now, is a professionally sports bettor.  That’s all he does to make his money.  We exchange texts daily regarding lines that we like.  He uses the term “trap game” at least 2-3 times a month. In many cases, i scoff at the notion that the game he’s talking about would be a trap game and I don’t bet it. Low and behold, his prediction will come through and he’s laughing all the way to the bank.  

The term may be a myth, from MY experience, it absolutely exists.  

This is where it comes from.  This being a trap game for the bills doesn’t necessarily mean we will lose, but that we won’t cover the spread.  Lose in some cases, but that it’s the prediction of the “trap”

I was thinking along these lines as I read the OP.  I absolutely believe that there's a psychology associated with the concept based upon knowing "in your head" that you should win a game.  If taht mentality seeps into enough players, then it shows up in a game.   Just as there is a mentality that can help win a game, it works the other way as well.  It might not result in a loss most of the time, but it sure can result in not meeting the expected betting outcome--the spread.  

[Rochesterfan]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It exists in the betting world.

 

One of my best friends, whom I’ve known for 20 years now, is a professionally sports bettor.  That’s all he does to make his money.  We exchange texts daily regarding lines that we like.  He uses the term “trap game” at least 2-3 times a month. In many cases, i scoff at the notion that the game he’s talking about would be a trap game and I don’t bet it. Low and behold, his prediction will come through and he’s laughing all the way to the bank.  

The term may be a myth, from MY experience, it absolutely exists.  

 

I think the real question is not does a trap game exist or not, but what does it mean.

 

Statistically speaking it appears a better teams win percentage is not impacted - a better team wins just as much in a trap scenario as a regular scenario against worse teams.  Therefore from a win percentage point of view a trap game does not exist.

 

From your betting and a point spread point of view - these games may end up closer (sometimes significantly) and more competitive than the rest of the non betting public may think.  Therefore from that point of view a trap game may exist.

 

The only thing I am worried about is the Bills winning the game.  I expect it to be closer than you would expect because I anticipate the Bills will get ahead and play a less aggressive defensive playbook in the 2nd half to run clock and close out the game.  McD is not worried about point differential- he is worried about wins.  
 

I don’t care about a trap game - McD will do his best to have his team ready and fired up.  I expect a win and healthy amount of complaining because we did not blow them out by 3 TDs - we were up big and let them get to 2 scores late and maybe even another last second Denver TD to get the game within 1 score making it appear closer than it was.
 

 

[Ramza86]

Normally it could be a trap...but we get the division with this win. So i assume we stay sharp for this one.

[Brennan Huff]

33 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

I grew up on these, and I really want to try one again, and then feel like garbage soon after. The flavor!

No regerts!

[mjt328]

Any person who plays sports will tell you that focus is an important part of how well you play.   There are times you are dialed in.  There are times when it's just not there.  And even for professionals, it's extremely hard to stay where you need to be mentally for 4 full quarters every week, 16 games per year.

 

NFL players are also very aware which teams are easier than others.  A player on Seattle was quoted prior to the Jets game, saying they "needed an easy game" after suffering a tough loss.  The Bills had a lot of pressure against the 49ers and Steelers in primetime.  They are heavy favorites against the Broncos, and everyone is now talking about how great they are.

 

The idea of a trap game is these two concepts coming together.  Teams becoming overconfident against an inferior opponent, and losing focus just long enough to either keep the game close or lose the game outright.  I absolutely do believe this can happen, although it's hard to successfully predict.

 

People predicting this as a trap game for the Bills are pointing out:

a)  The team just came off two huge primetime wins, and may be due for a mental letdown.

b)  They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs regardless of whether they win or lose.  They also only need to win one more game (or have Miami lose one more game) the rest of the season to win the AFC East.  With no fans, there may be less value in seeding.  All of this may decrease their urgency. 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, eball said:

It seems we have to address this every season, but there is NO data to back up the trap game or letdown game myth.  Bottom line — there is no evidence that good teams beat bad teams at a higher or lower rate when they play a good team the week before or the week after that game.

 

This is an old article but it tells the story.

 

Stop the madness.

 

A trap game doesn't have to be lost for it to be a trap game. To me the phrase just means a game that a team could be guilty of overlooking. 

[cd1]

Could Pittsburg have "overlooked" Washington? ( asking for a friend...) 😉

[eball]

40 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It exists in the betting world.

 

One of my best friends, whom I’ve known for 20 years now, is a professionally sports bettor.  That’s all he does to make his money.  We exchange texts daily regarding lines that we like.  He uses the term “trap game” at least 2-3 times a month. In many cases, i scoff at the notion that the game he’s talking about would be a trap game and I don’t bet it. Low and behold, his prediction will come through and he’s laughing all the way to the bank.  

The term may be a myth, from MY experience, it absolutely exists.  

 

 

You're sort of proving my point.  Betting lines are based upon perception, not reality, and if people "think" there are trap games they bet accordingly.

 

In the NFL even the bad teams are loaded with talent.  It truly is an "any given Sunday" league.  These guys know if they aren't ready to play they'll get embarrassed.  It's a fact.  Sure, they may look at the W-L records and think "we should win this game" but they wouldn't be playing in the NFL if they allowed that to impact the effort they put forth.

 

By the way, put me in contact with your friend! 

[AmishRifle]

[ILBillsfan]

This is where I'm very thankful of McDermott.  He has been very good at keeping the team focused and I do not see any way that the Bills overlook any team.  they all seem to be on the same page at looking at the season one game at a time.

 

i know people like to tease about the clapping but he has a great perspective and has kept this team focused.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

This is where I'm very thankful of McDermott.  He has been very good at keeping the team focused and I do not see any way that the Bills overlook any team.  they all seem to be on the same page at looking at the season one game at a time.

 

i know people like to tease about the clapping but he has a great perspective and has kept this team focused.  

 

You saying a trap game might not exist, but a clap game definitely does?

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

The Bills haven’t clinched anything yet. How is this a Trap Game? If anything, this is the most important of the three they have left. Win this one and then you can ‘rest’ might be the closest I’d come to a less than a must win message. 

 

I believe this would be called a "let down" game not a "trap game" as defined in the article OP linked. 

 

There's a number of myths in the NFL world that are absolutely false when you do statistical analysis, but are constantly referenced as gospel: 

 

Trap/Let down games

QBs need big hands

It's tough to beat a team for a 3rd time in 1 season

 

There must be more, but that's all I've off the top of my head 

[dma0034]

I will say this about the Broncos game. They've gone 3-0 in the AFC East and they have had a brutally hard schedule (harder than the Bills schedule). I don't think they're some power house or anything but they can win

[ProcessAccepted]

2 hours ago, Steptide said:

This isn't a trap game. This is a "win this game and we win the division" game. I highly doubt the bills are thinking about a bad Patriots team the following week. There is no need. 

Agree with a side of chasing the #2 seed. We will need all 3 games.

 

[947]

Saints vs Eagles last week was clearly a trap game. Saints were obviously looking ahead to KC & probably prepared as such. That Eagles team is really bad & had no business being in that game, let alone winning it.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

So teams that finished Over .500 vs. a team finished under .500. In other words any team 9-7 that plays a team 7-9. It seems to be a pretty shoddy analysis, especially since its Harvard. I can think of a million questions and definitions about this study that invalidate it. Like does the reputation of the team not matter? A 7-9 Lions team is a little different than a 7-9 Patriots team. Is it a divisional game? When people refer to a "trap" game, is it not more like a 12-4 Packers team playing 4-12 Giants team; the week before before the play a 12-4 Saints team for the #1 seed; and the week after playing an emotional divisonal game against a 10-6 Bears team? And, don't people refer to a team underperforming like being a 14 pt favorite and playing down to the opponent only to win by a FG in the second half? Wouldn't put much stock in this study. Believe what you want, but if you ever coached before and had a team come out flat, you understand the heuristic about a trap game.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

Is it not outside the realm of possibility that some locker rooms become comfortable with the idea of victory; and in such a mindset, become less focused on the work needed?

 

There may be no statistical evidence, but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that some teams fall victim to this mindset.  
 

I can recall teams in Gailey Era and the Marrone Era, and 1 Super Bowl, where this was clearly the case. 

I think maybe at the coaching level they try not to open up the whole playbook against an inferior opponent but players are playing for their careers and to earn that next big contract every week so I wouldnt think it happens at a player level much.  What do I know though 🤣

[Orlando Tim]

The article definition is not close to right, simply saying above or below 500 is not the proper definition since an 7-9 team is not bad. I would say above 650 and below 350 which those games do not happen as often back to back. I would say the raiders vs Jets was a trap game and it almost happened.

[RiotAct]

I say that the trap game is real, and that’s good enough for me.  So there.

[Kelly the Dog]

The thing is, a trap doesn’t have to work, and it’s still a trap. So this could still be a trap game. 

[MJS]

Nice to be in a position to have a "trap game". For the longest time we were hoping that WE were the trap game for bigger, better opponents.

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

33 minutes ago, 947 said:

Saints vs Eagles last week was clearly a trap game. Saints were obviously looking ahead to KC & probably prepared as such. That Eagles team is really bad & had no business being in that game, let alone winning it.

 

Hill is no brees, and Wentz is no hurts. People underestimate a change of the guard.. did you watch the game ?

[x-BillzeBubba]

hard to imagine a game that could seal the team's first AFCE title for the first time in a quarter century could be taken lightly...they might be a little tight if anything

[BringBackFlutie]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Nice to be in a position to have a "trap game". For the longest time we were hoping that WE were the trap game for bigger, better opponents.

I mean, we were even hoping to be the Seahawks' trap game. 

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

I mean, we were even hoping to be the Seahawks' trap game. 

Huh? No. The Bills were 6-2 heading into that game. Everyone saw it as a big matchup.

 

There's a difference in being an underdog and it being a trap game. You think there was any chance the Seahawks would be looking past a matchup with a 6-2 opponent?