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PFF takes analytics to a new level


Big Blitz

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47 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And Brady???  For real?

 

My list (so absolute authority lol)

 

Mahomes 

Rodgers 

Watson 

Allen 

Wilson

 

 

 

They are the top 5 in the league this year. By eye test or by pretty much any analysis of the key statistical indicators. 

 

To be honest it isn't that close to 6th place. That 5 have been discernably better.  Feels pretty great to be in that group. 

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Well... maybe they should have a percentage versus raw numbers. If a qb throws 40 passes a game and has 2 ints vs a qb who throws 20 balls and gets 2 picks....they both have 2 turnovers but common sense would lead one to say the 2nd QB had a worse day.

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5 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And continue to find (make up) stats to trash Allen 

It's almost parody at this point 

 

 

I've got a new statistic too:

 

Most snarky takes on Josh Allen over the last 3 years that have proved completely wrong:

1.  Pro-Football Focus  -  1,246

2.  Football Almanac    -   879

3.  Dan Le Batard and the cast of Highly Questionable  -  812

 

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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53 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I've got a new statistic too:

 

Most cringe-worthy takes on Josh Allen over the last 3 years

 

1.  Pro-Football Focus  -  1,246

2.  Football Almanac    -   879

3.  Dan Le Batard and the cast of Highly Questionable  -  812

 

 

Le Batard and Bomani Jones are two of the most arrogant guys when it comes to talking about Josh.  I remember the words they used were "Allen should apologize to us for making us think he was that bad.  It's not our fault he didn't play well."  If you can't make a good prediction about someone, at least man up to your mistake.

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These guys are clowns. At this point, and even before this actually, they just try to get clicks. There really is no point in calling them out because they do more than enough on their own to prove they're idiots. 

Edited by H2o
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

Which would then put Mahomes & Rodgers as 1-2.....  The amount of passes Mahomes throws that seem ill advised (like Rodgers) are often what sets them apart.

 

Like Allen's pass to Davis vs. SF, that certainly would have been graded a Turnover-worthy Play for Allen, but Full points for Mahomes, Rodger & probably Mayfield, Stafford & Tannehill.

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Just goes to show ya that it’s a bunch of frat guys in Collinsworths basement doing bong hits, and having more Highdeas... what s bunch of morons...

 

... in other news, by leaving his house this morning Patrick Mahomes has increased his odds of a turnover worthy play... 

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6 hours ago, MJS said:

I'm pretty sure they have counted a lot of his good plays as turnover worthy.

I bet the lazer to Davis on Monday was counted was “turnover worthy”. Which just makes me chuckle. I feel like there should be a grading curve on that stat that has to do with the fact only certain qb’s having the arm to get it done. 

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7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And Brady???  For real?

 

My list (so absolute authority lol)

 

Mahomes 

Rodgers 

Watson 

Allen 

Wilson

 

 

It seems to me that PFF puts extremely high value on decision making for Qb, rather than execution of those decisions. I think the execution tends to be more important however.

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8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And continue to find (make up) stats to trash Allen 

 

It's almost parody at this point 

 

How do you not get this by now? PFF's goal isn't 'accurate statistics'... it's attention. Guess what they get with people getting their britches in a knot every time they say so and so isn't good? 

 

You literally did their job for them. So guess what you will get more of? More of them saying Allen is bad because fools will rush to post that **** all over the internet every single time they say it. 

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9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And continue to find (make up) stats to trash Allen 

 

 

 

 

It's almost parody at this point 

 

 

So, it's bad, and it's about Allen, so it must be wrong. I see how this works. Makes total sense.

 

Excellent arguments, all around, on this thread. Not one person has addressed the substance, yet panties are bunched.

 

To be fair, I loved this comment:

 

8 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Does he get one less for the LAR Kroft catch ?

 

 

Fair point. Wonder how that was graded.

 

Allen's been terrific. PFF acknowledges that. Playing well can sometimes be accompanied by a bad stat here or there. Remember the one about how Rodgers had about the lowest comeback percentage in world history, because he's generally got them ahead? Or Favre's high INTs?

Edited by Thurman#1
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37 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, it's bad, and it's about Allen, so it must be wrong. I see how this works. Makes total sense.

 

Excellent arguments, all around, on this thread. Not one person has addressed the substance, yet panties are bunched.

 

To be fair, I loved this comment:

 

 

 

Fair point. Wonder how that was graded.

 

Allen's been terrific. PFF acknowledges that. Playing well can sometimes be accompanied by a bad stat here or there. Remember the one about how Rodgers had about the lowest comeback percentage in world history, because he's generally got them ahead? Or Favre's high INTs?

 

Well I guess it depends what you want to base you opinions off of.  Because if you look at the analytics from Pro-Football-Reference.com it tells a different story.

 

Allen is 7th best in the NFL in Bad Throw percentage at only 14.3%, and is 3rd best in the NFL in OnTarget% at 80.9%, and the 2 QB's above him, Bridgewater and Brees are both way below him in intended air yards, meaning they throw much shorter passes than Allen does in general which makes them easier to be on target with.  Allen is at 8.0 IAY/Att, while Bridgewater is at 6.8 and Brees is ahead of only Alex Smith at 5.4 IAY/Att.  And it is true that Roethlesberger is throwing a lot of short passes as his is barely above Bridgewater at 6.9 IAY/Att.

 

Playing Denver will be fun because Lock in many ways is Allen from his rookie year...Leads the NFL in IAY/Att with 9.3 but also leads the NFL in bad throw percentage at 26.0% and is dead last in OnTarget Percentage at 67.4%. In Allen's rookie year, his IAY/Att was an astounding 11.3 and bad throw percentage was 25.7%.  So when we play Denver we are pretty much playing a rookie Allen clone in terms of throw types and decision making.

 

image.thumb.png.8ef90af669d00b20eeb0aec8c637e273.png

 

 

Edited by matter2003
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PFF...meh...JA and Mahomes are 1-2 in ability to make something good to unbelievable  happen at anytime....JA's TD throw with 40 seconds left at AZ says it all...2-3 qb's can make that throw at that time

 

Score that!

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10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And continue to find (make up) stats to trash Allen 

 

 

 

 

It's almost parody at this point 

Im not even going to bother looking into it. But how subjective can a “turnover worthy” play be. 
 

What a waste. Why not start keeping track of “lovely” td’s vs “ugly” tds?

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10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

And continue to find (make up) stats to trash Allen 

 

 

 

 

It's almost parody at this point 

 

I don't have a problem with this stat.  High risk, high reward.  What would be more telling are two things:  when they occurred and what the outcome of the play was.  Throwing that dig route to Gabe was certainly one of them.  That had INT written all over it.  The number isn't as important as the outcome.  What biases you immediately is seeing Wentz on there.  His outcomes have been poor.

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Allen's problem, and most would agree is fumbles. That is included in this stat. It's not all about bad throws. 

 

Also if you analyze the 3 players Drew Lock's numbers are much worse. He has much fewer attempts and rushes compared to Allen. Allen has a lot more than Wentz also. So the stat really doesn't tell the truth. Looking at this you'd say Allen is more careless with the ball but he's actually much better. 

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The "trained" people grading throws as turnover-worthy are probably counting throws like the one to Gabe Davis over the SF into an incredibly tight window. PFF needs to adjust its metrics to allow for superstars. They assume a throw like that is bad because it would have been a turnover if it was less accurate or had less velocity. The fact that it was on target and impossible to intercept doesn't matter to them. 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

So, it's bad, and it's about Allen, so it must be wrong. I see how this works. Makes total sense.

 

Excellent arguments, all around, on this thread. Not one person has addressed the substance, yet panties are bunched.

 

To be fair, I loved this comment:

 

Because their "metrics" OFTEN (not sometimes) don't sync with what we see in games. And not just with Allen, with other players too. They have given Sam Darnold some extremely high grades before when you watch him playing pretty badly.

 

And their "metrics" OFTEN (not sometimes) don't align with the actual stats (the ones that can be objectively tracked, not the ones that they make up and are subjective).

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20 minutes ago, finn said:

The "trained" people grading throws as turnover-worthy are probably counting throws like the one to Gabe Davis over the SF into an incredibly tight window. PFF needs to adjust its metrics to allow for superstars. They assume a throw like that is bad because it would have been a turnover if it was less accurate or had less velocity. The fact that it was on target and impossible to intercept doesn't matter to them. 

They do..... Mahomes, Rodgers & Wilson would get full points for that throw.

 

Mahomes & Rodgers as said earlier probably are 1-2 (with Allen) in making these "Turnover Worthy Plays" and I will bet are not marked that way.

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2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

They do..... Mahomes, Rodgers & Wilson would get full points for that throw.

 

Mahomes & Rodgers as said earlier probably are 1-2 (with Allen) in making these "Turnover Worthy Plays" and I will bet are not marked that way.

19 turnover worthy plays doesn't seem like a high number for Allen. He's fumbled the ball 7 times and most were just poor ball security. He's thrown 8 INTs. 1-2 were definitely not bad throws off the top of my head. 

 

I wouldn't get too worked up over this stat, but it seems pretty accurate. 

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