Week 14: Steelers at Bills on SNF

[Warcodered]

 

[goober]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

That will be hard to overcome and whoever now plays ILB will never have made their D calls (Williamson from the Jets or the converted safety, Marcus Allen).

I think somebody mentioned earlier it might be Minkah Fitzpatrick doing the calls...

 

At least it was speculation from this article  

https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/lists/steelers-bills-nfl-vince-williams-avery-williamson/

 

Last week, when Robert Spillane went down with a knee injury, Williams took over the role of taking the defensive play calls. Now with Williams out, this means a different player, perhaps safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will be responsible for running the defense on the field.

Edited December 11, 2020 by goober

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

2 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Not that concerned w pouncey getting no practice in 10 days, out there blocking and making calls, touching the ball every snap. Might actually be in our favor. 

Yeah fair point. Even though he's a veteran, he hasn't practiced with Ben and the O-line in a while.

 

For what it's worth, Joe Marino on the Locked On Bills podcast said Pouncey has been performing at an average to below average level for the past couple seasons now. I'm sure he's better than his back up would have been, but hopefully Oliver and Butler can win that match up. Pittsburgh's O-line overall isn't close to being the dominant unit it once was especially at LG, C, and RT. 

[Warcodered]

 

3rd game against Avery Williamson.

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

That Joe Haden stats has to be misleading. He was a bit washed up a few years ago. I wonder if having Minkah out there has improved Haden's play, or covered his mistakes. 

 

What covers mistakes is the rush, sacks, and bums they've played at QB.

[BillsCuse]

On 12/10/2020 at 1:12 PM, Stank_Nasty said:

Pure gold. I saw this yesterday morning. It’s great. Kiper on FULL send....actually probably not even full send because it looks like he’s about to blow a gasket if it weren’t for being on TV. 

 

I remember a clip with him and 3 others, including Todd Mcshay, on NFL live in the spring before the 2019 season. The cast was asked who could be the most successful out of that 2018 class after their rookie years and Kiper fought for Allen. They all literally laughed right at him on television. He can be sort of a douche but he has pounded the table for Allen since day one. 

I remember that clip like it was yesterday.  McShay asked him multiple times in a row if he thought Allen would be better than Darnold and was mocking him -  Kiper stuck to his guns.   Everyone laughed him off the table, but he wouldn't budge.  He kept pointing to a lot of Allen's incompletions as great passes

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I’m starting to feel really good about this game, which has me feeling really not so good at all. 🤔 BBFS

[JerseyBills]

Tre Day! Even in an off year , still shining 

 

 

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Tre Day! Even in an off year , still shining 

 

 

Still not in their top 100 players probably. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

5 hours ago, nucci said:

our pass protection is very good and Beasley is hard to cover

This will be a great test to see if Beasley can always get open, Pitt has the best slot corner in football.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This will be a great test to see if Beasley can always get open, Pitt has the best slot corner in football.

 

My guess is that Beasley may have a quite night because of this.  On the other hand Diggs & Davis my explode.

 

 

[Pokebball]

How many points do the Bills have to score Sunday night?  Steelers give up an average of under 18.  I think if we put 24 on the board we win.  But those 24 will prove to be very tough to get.  Josh will be under pressure all night.  Small ball wins this game and Josh has to manage that type of game.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Pokebball

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

How many points do the Bills have to score Sunday night?  Steelers give up an average of under 8.  I think if we put 24 on the board we win.  But those 24 will prove to be very tough to get.  Josh will be under pressure all night.  Small ball wins this game and Josh has to manage that type of game.

The Steelers give up an average of 17.6 points per game. 

[RichRiderBills]

One bills Live today was saying the ESPN stat that josh is only 53 % accurate when blitzed is false. Did anyone have the real number?

[ShakAttack]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This will be a great test to see if Beasley can always get open, Pitt has the best slot corner in football.

interesting because as a fantasy owner of Beasley I was just reading how Pitt actually gives up the 6th highest fantasy pts in the nfl to slot receivers.  It’s the outside receivers that typically see their production limited against steelers 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2020/12/11/22164801/fanshots

 

😂 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

26 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

interesting because as a fantasy owner of Beasley I was just reading how Pitt actually gives up the 6th highest fantasy pts in the nfl to slot receivers.  It’s the outside receivers that typically see their production limited against steelers 

Telling you what I heard on LockedOn Bills today from Joe Marino. I trust Joe, he is an excellent scout. I am interested to see if Beasley can get open and if our line can give Josh time to find his open options. 

[The Wiz]

29 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2020/12/11/22164801/fanshots

 

😂

 

Damn, I mean they basically talked steelers for the entire time other than about 30 seconds of that.  Even our worst podcast guys do better.

[K-9]

42 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

One bills Live today was saying the ESPN stat that josh is only 53 % accurate when blitzed is false. Did anyone have the real number?

Allen has been killing blitzes all year. 
https://www.buffalobills.com/news/8-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-vs-steelers-sunday-night-football

 

Quote

Against the blitz, Allen has the third-best QBR in the league with a mark of 92 along with a completion percentage of 67 percent, a success rate that's only slightly off his season completion percentage of 69.9 percent.

 

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Allen has been killing blitzes all year. 
https://www.buffalobills.com/news/8-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-vs-steelers-sunday-night-football

 

 

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

Edited December 12, 2020 by The Wiz

[Stank_Nasty]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

I heard a stat today that has more to do with when he’s “pressured”. Not just blitzes. In those pressured situations his comp % is 12th amongst qb’s in that situation. Still not awful but I think that is reason for concern when it comes to Pittsburgh because I don’t think they technically “blitz” a lot. They’ve shown the ability to generate pressure with just their front. 
 

Heyward, tuit, and watt are all just awesome. Luckily for us dupree isn’t there anymore. It really was a terror for teams to deal with. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, chknwing334 said:

The Steelers give up an average of 17.6 points per game. 

fat fingers

 

should have been 18 not 8

[YattaOkasan]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

True

 

Dawson Knox had a big night for him - first 100% catch night, 4 receptions on 4 targets and only for 27 yds.  He had 4 receptions on 6 targets  once last season but for much more yards.  Devin Singletary, 3 receptions on 4 targets for 20 yds.  Zach Moss 1 for 1, 5 yds. 

 

Learning to be patient.  Learning to take what the D gives him.  Learning to dink n dunk.

It’s sorta weird cause he was such a threat downfield as rookie with some sick grabs and angry runs, but could Dawson Knox be more valuable in the short game this year?  Diggs is another weapon to stretch the field (Davis is probably better in the vertical passing game too). So instead Knox might have a really good role chipping the rush and then eating against zones underneath (he’s certainly athletic enough for YAC). This sounds really good this week when they will have back up LBs in those zones. 

[LABILLBACKER]

We double team Watt. We win

[K-9]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

Ironically, the stats cited in the linked article are attributed to ESPN and NextGen Stats. Given the Steelers’ injuries, especially with Haden ruled out and Allen’s success against the blitz all season, I doubt they will be as blitz happy as usual. Especially with the man beaters we have at receiver. 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

There seems to be some conflicting numbers out there because Brown and Tasker mentioned the metric of low completion percentage when blitzed that has been floating around and they both seemed sceptical of it too.

 

Whatever the case, my eyes tell me he does well escaping pressure and extending plays. And I would have assumed that he has performed quite well against the blitz.

[NI Bills Fan]

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

[billsherd]

30 minutes ago, NI Bills Fan said:

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

Thanks for posting this, I actually watched it earlier and wanted to post it here but didn't know how to from my phone. 

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Don't tell the guys on "first take" or any other espn show.  Apparently all you need to do is blitz Allen to beat him.  And the stats of him against the blitz have proven how good he is against it so I don't know why they say it other than it's the Steelers.

Wiz, you are the man, but some advice, DON’T WATCH ESPN.  Just kidding bud.  I gave up on them years ago.  MNF and that’s about it.

[atlbillsfan1975]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We double team Watt. We win

Dabs hasn’t shown much In the way of adjusting blocking schemes for a specific player. We shouldn’t hold our breaths.

Edited December 12, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[FLFan]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I just had a couple little *blink*blink* "what wormhole did I just fall into?" experiences

 

First, Collinsworth appeared on One Bills Live with Tasker and Chris Brown.  He made the comment at one point that on Monday night, Josh Allen could just stand there in the pocket and do whatever he liked.  Well, there were times when that was true, but there were other times when Josh was moving around, making 1-3 guys miss in order to buy time and make a throw; other times he rolled out either due to pressure or to get a better throwing lane to a secondary defender.  He also passed up some short throws to open guys that were there if he had more pressure.

 

Second, walking over to Steelerland and listening to their One Bills Live equivalent.  They referenced Nexgen stats talking about how Josh Allen doesn't like to be pressured and how poorly he performs under pressure.  My understanding was that Josh Allen has a 67% pass completion rating against the blitz.  Anyone got ideas what they're talking about?  I'm not doubting some such stats exist, just curious what they are.   Anyway interesting listen

 

 

Sounds like Collinsworth has his narrative set for Sunday night.  Such a tool.

[RichRiderBills]

Yeah,  thats what I thought. They mentioned this bad stat on ESPN NFL live as well. Seems like its come from nowhere. That QBR is insane. There was a lot of stats out there that Allen was burning blitzes. My guess is someone cherry picked some bad stats or forgot to carry the one so to speak. That being said, we are going to get blitzed. Thats what Steelers do. If they are damned either way, theyll do what they do best. ( my guess) 

 

Good thing is, that will open more man and short passing. Which with all the LBs out will kill them.

Edited December 12, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[fergie's ire]

4 hours ago, NI Bills Fan said:

I'd be surprised if this hasn't been posted here already, but I thought it a good, encouraging read so thought I'd share. Maybe the wrong thread so apologies for that...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html

Interesting.  I remember watching a video that someone posted earlier in the year where the analyst (don't remember who it was) picked up on that little foot tap and how it helped Josh rotate his hips better.

[Stank_Nasty]

30 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Yeah,  thats what I thought. They mentioned this bad stat on ESPN NFL live as well. Seems like its come from nowhere. That QBR is insane. There was a lot of stats out there that Allen was burning blitzes. My guess is someone cherry picked some bad stats or forgot to carry the one so to speak. That being said, we are going to get blitzed. Thats what Steelers do. If they are damned either way, theyll do what they do best. ( my guess) 

 

Good thing is, that will open more man and short passing. Which with all the LBs out will kill them.

The stat that’s being thrown around is “pressured” though. Not blitz’s. Which means it includes anytime Josh is getting somebody in his face even with just a four man front and everyone is covered that way. And Pittsburgh really hasn’t had to blitz much at alp with their front as talented as it is. When dupree was healthy they didn’t blitz a ton because you have him, watt, heyward and tuit all beating their guys a bunch. It’s one of the reasons why their d has been so good. We’ll see what they do without Dupree this week but still wouldn’t expect a ton of blitzes, while I’m still expecting to see plenty of pressure. 
 

50 sec mark of this clip they reference Allen’s stats against pressure in general, not just the blitz. 
 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Greybeard]

     I just checked the wind predictions and it looks like the Bills are catching a break with it being an 8PM game.  The game time wind is predicted 10-15mph.   If the game was played at 1PM the prediction is 15-25mph.  

[Coach Tuesday]

Don’t know about anyone else but I am fired up.

 

This season has been a joy.

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, FLFan said:

Sounds like Collinsworth has his narrative set for Sunday night.  Such a tool.

I don’t get the Collinsworth hate on here. Can he drone on about the best teams/players? Sure, but what national sports personality doesn’t? I listened to his interview with Chris and Steve when he was on and he was really positive/high on the Bills. Sure, he’ll hype the Steelers on Sunday night, but they deserve it. They are an 11-1 football team. He’ll show the Bills love too though. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by TheProcess

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The stat that’s being thrown around is “pressured” though. Not blitz’s. Which means it includes anytime Josh is getting somebody in his face even with just a four man front and everyone is covered that way. And Pittsburgh really hasn’t had to blitz much at alp with their front as talented as it is. When dupree was healthy they didn’t blitz a ton because you have him, watt, heyward and tuit all beating their guys a bunch. It’s one of the reasons why their d has been so good. We’ll see what they do without Dupree this week but still wouldn’t expect a ton of blitzes, while I’m still expecting to see plenty of pressure. 
 

50 sec mark of this clip they reference Allen’s stats against pressure in general, not just the blitz. 
 

 

Taking nothing away from their D line’s ability to rush the passer, but the Steelers also have the 3rd highest blitz percentage in the league. They’ve been a blitz happy team for years. 

[Solomon Grundy]

Our run game is going to be needed big time Sunday night. I see Keith Butler playing a bunch of nickel and daring us to run. Gonna need to be able to run between the tackles. Once we establish the run, then Josh will be able to operate.