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Week 13: Bills at 49ers on MNF (in Arizona)


YoloinOhio

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Bills are running into a tricky matchup on the road against the 49ers. I expect this to be a one posession game late. The 49ers will be without Jimmy G and Kittle but they have been a tough team without both players. 

 

I think without John Brown on offense the team struggles to score against a still tough 49ers defense but I do think the defense shows up and shuts down the 49ers. 24-17 Bills a nail biter but the defense shuts the door when needed and the offense does just enough.

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The shift in the betting line is largely based on narrative. San Francisco is playing for their season tomorrow and Buffalo will get their best shot, but Im not sure people understand what that looks like given Mullens playing. They went to the Super Bowl last year, but this isn't that team.

 

This game largely comes down to Buffalo getting back to taking care of the ball. It's largely a false narrative that Buffalo fails to score without Brown. Outside of the 3-week stretch of KC/tenn/Jets, Buffalo has gotten to the mid-high 20's and up pretty consistently. They've also turned it over a little more than average now with 5 in the last 2 games.

 

San Francisco is 2-5 in games where their defense forces 0-1 turnovers. Their offense on the year hasn't been able to match output with other teams because they can't pass effeciently.

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48 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

We really haven't had any Monday night games this millennium.  IIRC RW didn't want them. 

 

Edit: guess there were more than I thought.  

 

Loss to the Cowboys in 2007 25-24.

Loss to the Browns 2008 29-27

Loss to the Pats 2009 25-24.

Loss to the Seahawks 2016 25-31

Loss to the Pats 2018 25-6. 

Loss to the Texans wildcard last year.

Texans game was on a Sunday at 4:00. The pats game is the only mnf game under McDermott and we had Derek Anderson at QB. Unless you count the chiefs game this year that moved to Monday 5pm

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26 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

Narrative shifting to SF taking this one and I agree. Buffalo is going to be in a dog fight for the division and unfortunately it’s going to be a tough road. 

 

I believe you have picked the Bills to win 4 games so far, yes?

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2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:


They were both on the plane. 

There was doubt of their availablility all week.  Both of them traveling I have no doubt they play.  Down the stretch the linebacker playing well can make the defense go from complimentary to dominate. 

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43 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

I'm sorry if this was mentioned in the previous 29 pages.......

The AZ field is getting chewed up pretty well tonight. I wonder how they recondition that in 24 hours.

 

Yeah i mentioned that way earlier in this thread.  i think they used to replace their grass in sections.  but i doubt they can do that in less than 24 hours? Maybe the NFL steps in to take care of it.  the grass looks pretty messed up today. 

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have no idea why the line is the way it is. My gut tells me Bills should freaking roll this team but the more time that goes by, that feeling is changing drastically.

 

I got the feeling after the Arizona game that Buffalo is an above average team but not gonna roll anyone. we didn’t dominate the Cards. we couldn’t separate against a lousy Chargers team... and Josh Allen is definitely not 100%.  so if he comes out looking like the Josh from the Tennessee game, we’re cooked.  Our D is just not very physical.  just watched the Giants D punish Seattle.  Hope everything works out!

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1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have no idea why the line is the way it is. My gut tells me Bills should freaking roll this team but the more time that goes by, that feeling is changing drastically.

The Bills roll nobody...they aren’t built or coached to blow teams out...not to mention the Bills are without Smoke and rarely play well in prime time...I’m not optimistic about this game...

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29 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

Yeah i mentioned that way earlier in this thread.  i think they used to replace their grass in sections.  but i doubt they can do that in less than 24 hours? Maybe the NFL steps in to take care of it.  the grass looks pretty messed up today. 

 

I got the feeling after the Arizona game that Buffalo is an above average team but not gonna roll anyone. we didn’t dominate the Cards. we couldn’t separate against a lousy Chargers team... and Josh Allen is definitely not 100%.  so if he comes out looking like the Josh from the Tennessee game, we’re cooked.  Our D is just not very physical.  just watched the Giants D punish Seattle.  Hope everything works out!

Wow you seem confident. Each game with different opponents is one game. All that matters is that we play a solid game tomorrow and get a win. Takes us to 9-3 and in great position. If we play smart game we win. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have no idea why the line is the way it is. My gut tells me Bills should freaking roll this team but the more time that goes by, that feeling is changing drastically.

49ers have a defense that can very easily rattle Josh.  I’m assuming that’s the reason why the line is the way it is.  

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35 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

49ers have a defense that can very easily rattle Josh.  I’m assuming that’s the reason why the line is the way it is.  

 

So they started the line at- 3.5 and then through the week realized the 49ers defense can rattle Josh and moved it to +1 ?

 

Yep....I bet...😝

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