CBS compares Bills to Bears

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I think there is a chance the Bills take a step backwards next season due to strength of schedule. 

 

Eli Manning had a big jump his 2nd year, stayed flat his 3rd year, and a huge regression in his 4th year, and then won the Super Bowl in his 5th year. 

 

The Bills are in it for the long haul. Everyone wants to see Josh improve next year. But it's 5th and 6th year Josh that the league has to worry about. 

If Josh doesn’t have a big 4th/5th year where he can compete as an above average passer, the.l their won’t be a year 6. There is no way you give $35-40M to a 58% passer who puts the ball on the ground/throws interceptions about as often as he finds the end zone. 
 

Take 40M from this teams roster and ask if Allen can make up for it. Until that answer is yes, he doesn’t get a 6th year. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

12 minutes ago, unclepete said:

Bills also won a ton of close games. That could've gone either way. 

Not in similar fashion. Most games in the NFL are close. 

[unclepete]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not in similar fashion. Most games in the NFL are close. 

We also had amongst the easiest schedules in the league. Only beat one team with a winning record and that was before their QB change.

[Niagara Dude]

2 hours ago, stuvian said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-2020-outlook-buffalo-is-on-the-rise-but-dont-count-out-the-possibility-of-a-2019-bears-type-season/

I agree if they don't sign 2-3 play making free agents,  their schedule was easy and they struggled playing good teams.  

[BarleyNY]

33 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

LOL...yeah, OK. Maybe you should actually watch Trubisky play football.

 

Stats.....for people that can't decipher what they are seeing.

Like for instance when someone has a biased view of a player.  It’s easy for someone to see what they want to see.  But when what they see consistently differs from the metrics - in the direction of their preference - then the culprit is usually bias.

[Beast]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Like for instance when someone has a biased view of a player.  It’s easy for someone to see what they want to see.  But when what they see consistently differs from the metrics - in the direction of their preference - then the culprit is usually bias.

 

So, who would you take as your QB?

[HappyDays]

While his raw numbers look better across the board than they did last year, the advanced metrics indicate the improvement was marginal at best. A year ago, he ranked 33rd in DYAR and DVOA, and 26th in total QBR. This year, he finished 27th in DYAR and DVOA, and 26th in total QBR.

 

This section isn't proof that that Allen's improvement was "marginal at best." It's proof that DVOA and QBR are poor metrics for grading QB play. There is a bizarre level of blind trust in "advanced metrics" in NFL media. Passer rating, ANY/A, and YPA still get it done.

 

I mean this article points out that according to QBR Trubisky was the 3rd best QB in 2018. Uhhhh, no.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

In all the euphoria of making the Playoffs...it really did get lost to the ease of the Bills 2019 Opponents.

 

at one point it was reported:

 

Based on current DVOA, the Buffalo Bills are projected to finish with the easiest schedule faced by any defense ever. Their remaining schedule of opposing offenses is easier than New England's. Current record is 1992 Chargers (-10.9%).
 

All that and most games still came down to final quarter.

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

So, who would you take as your QB?

Between Trubisky and Allen?  Or in general?

[GimmeSomeProcess]

Huge difference is that Bears depleted there talent, didn’t add to it. And lost Vic. The Bears weren’t active in free agency, actually lost there best offense player in Howard. Then didn’t pick in the 3rd round which lead to a bad draft ( Montgomery was good)

1 hour ago, Penfield45 said:

 

how is Allen better than Tribusky ? Trubisky had a much better year statistically than Allen did. in their year 2's

 

they are about the same right now. 

Allen has more total tds and less turnovers than Mitch did in year two

[EasternOHBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

And they made Tarik Cohen a focal point of the offense which skewed Trubiskys numbers with all those dump off big plays, this year it’s like they forgot Cohen was on the team for multiple games at a time. 

 

No Jordan Howard to pound the ball.... made a huge difference.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Did a good job pointing out how the Bills team isn’t the 2017 Jags or 2018 Bears. When you live off turnovers for points, like the Cheating Pats did this year, you have more room for regression.

 

Yep that is where the Bears defense regressed from 2018 to 2019. They went from 27 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, and 6 defensive TDs to 10 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries, and 1 defensive TD. So they had half the turnovers in 2019 and 5 less TDs.

 

This year we had 14 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries, and 0 defensive TDs. There isnt much room for regression there.

 

So yeah if the Bills suddenly rack up a bunch of injuries on defense they will regress. Other than that it's all on Josh Allen to keep improving.

[Tcali]

58 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Our D should be compared to the 85 Bears D!!!!!!

more like the 2000 Ravens!!

[wppete]

[Rc2catch]

4 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

No Jordan Howard to pound the ball.... made a huge difference.

Agreed there as well. Montgomery didn’t play well until the second half. Cohen was their difference maker and homerun threat though. All their tight ends get hurt and no Howard and they forgot Cohen. And then the offensive genius Nagy decided to scare goat his offensive staff and fire them cause he can’t make adjustments off the playbook Andy Reid taught him 

[Tcali]

Keys to Bills 2020...

JA learning some basics like sack avoidance,panic avoidance, sensing where defenders are when passing short,protection of the ball when he runs.

Keeping the defense together.While not the 85 bears or the 2000 ravens; this defense is very very good.

 

-When people talk about schedule difficulty a yr ahead that can be very flawed.Things change rapidly inthis league.Jets and the dolphins were not an easy out

by the end of this season.Titans may have been the best team in the league down the stretch.You cant look at a schedule a year ahead and know how easy or tough it will be EXC if

this was the past 20 yrs and you played in the AFC east with the Bills Dolphins and Jets;)

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Mitch Trubisky has 1 less 4 quarter comeback to Josh Allen. They have near identical 3rd down conversion rates when passing. Mitch has the advantage by 0.2%.

 

So I guess by your “important stats” they are still pretty similar...

It’s a very apt comparison.  This team will be as good as Allen next year.  If he takes the next step, the Bills should win the East by 2 games.  If he continues to wallow at the bottom of the league with the Mitch Trubiskys and Gardner Minshews, then it won’t matter how good the rest of the roster is.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Agreed there as well. Montgomery didn’t play well until the second half. Cohen was their difference maker and homerun threat though. All their tight ends get hurt and no Howard and they forgot Cohen. And then the offensive genius Nagy decided to scare goat his offensive staff and fire them cause he can’t make adjustments off the playbook Andy Reid taught him 

 

Normally I wouldn't be as knowledgeable about the Bears but last year Jordan Howard was my fantasy back when Cohen started getting more touches. The playcalling creativity of Nagy can only take them so far... fortunately we're not the Bears and we will build around Devin.

[whatdrought]

The difference, as has already been stated, is that the bears defense was big play dependent. The Bills is all around solid (and has been for 3 years now) based as much on scheme as individual performance. Another big difference is that the Bears offense in 18 was the go for broke offense of weapons and scheme. The bills are just building their offense. 

[Tcali]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s a very apt comparison.  This team will be as good as Allen next year.  If he takes the next step, the Bills should win the East by 2 games.  If he continues to wallow at the bottom of the league with the Mitch Trubiskys and Gardner Minshews, then it won’t matter how good the rest of the roster is.

right on

[Phil The Thrill]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Easy to make that comparison but it’s flawed if they do even a little research. The bears D was #1 in turnovers in 2018 and it fueled a lot of their success. Turnovers aren’t sustainable. The Bills D is a consistently performing unit that doesn’t depend on turnovers. Also 2018 was the year the bears already gave Mitch his #1 WR and had Jordan Howard. They let Howard go and their OL was much worse this year too. Bills are not done building the offense. 

I see this as the key difference.  The Bears personnel on offense got worse, the Bills is likely to get better.   You might be able to make the same

argument on defense. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Lazy comparison but the general idea is correct. Josh and the offense need to improve. Bills face uncertainty at three of the front 7 defenders(SLB, DE,DT) and Hughes is only getting older. 

If they want to avoid a set back get a RT, move Ford inside, get AJ Green, and draft four front 7 players. If they want to go WR in the draft then they need a LB or DE in free agency.

[Beast]

48 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Between Trubisky and Allen?  Or in general?

 

Yes, those two....but lets here your analysis in general as well.

[thenorthremembers]

The similarities between Trubisky and Allen start and end with being white and having spotty beards.  

[row_33]

29 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

Yes, those two....but lets here your analysis in general as well.

 Bears QB was put under the microscope heading into 2019 and The Book was written and he couldn’t adjust

[chongli]

1 hour ago, unclepete said:

We also had amongst the easiest schedules in the league. Only beat one team with a winning record and that was before their QB change.

 

We also beat Pittsburgh.

[row_33]

4 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

We also beat Pittsburgh.

with their third string QB

 

 

[chongli]

Just now, row_33 said:

with their third string QB

 

 

 

He had led them to multiple wins, until he met Buffalo. It is also not our fault they didn't have Roethlisberger.

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

He had led them to multiple wins, until he met Buffalo. It is also not our fault they didn't have Roethlisberger.

Almost impossible to imagine any team put 3 men out there at QB in a season, and compete

 

if a good QB was in there it would have 5 straight losses for the Bills to end the season?

 

not to mention what the Steelers lost at skill positions heading into last season

Edited January 12, 2020 by row_33

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

Our D should be compared to the 85 Bears D!!!!!!

You clearly aren’t old enough to have watched that ‘85 Bears D

[BarleyNY]

46 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

Yes, those two....but lets here your analysis in general as well.

Allen over Trubisky due mainly to his potential.  Trubisky has been pretty much what I expected him to be over 3 seasons - a serviceable QB, but not a franchise guy.  Allen was definitely a raw, high risk prospect with a pretty high ceiling and a big bust probability.  I wouldn’t have drafted either since I didn’t see it with Trubisky and I didn’t think Allen was worth the risk.  But Allen has exceeded my expectations thus far.  He has been a serviceable starting QB overall.

 

He has flashed at times and faltered badly at others. His progress has earned him the opportunity to continue to grow and he should get a lot of help in that regard.  If he does, then that’s great news.  If not, it’ll be a strong indication that he has topped out at a level that isn’t good enough. 
 

You seem to think Allen rates much better than his metrics.  Why?

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, unclepete said:

Bills also won a ton of close games. That could've gone either way. 

And lost a lot of close games that could’ve gone either way 

[Beast]

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Allen over Trubisky due mainly to his potential.  Trubisky has been pretty much what I expected him to be over 3 seasons - a serviceable QB, but not a franchise guy.  Allen was definitely a raw, high risk prospect with a pretty high ceiling and a big bust probability.  I wouldn’t have drafted either since I didn’t see it with Trubisky and I didn’t think Allen was worth the risk.  But Allen has exceeded my expectations thus far.  He has been a serviceable starting QB overall.

 

He has flashed at times and faltered badly at others. His progress has earned him the opportunity to continue to grow and he should get a lot of help in that regard.  If he does, then that’s great news.  If not, it’ll be a strong indication that he has topped out at a level that isn’t good enough. 
 

You seem to think Allen rates much better than his metrics.  Why?

Quite simple. Allen has shown he can make every throw there is to make on the field. His completion percentage jumped considerably from year one to year two. The only part of his game that went backwards was his deep ball accusers you but that started coming back later this year.

 

The will to win. The guts displayed on a weekly basis. The “It” factor. 
 

Not everything is black and white. I wasn’t thrilled when the Bills drafted the kid. He has grown on me. I have had no problems in my 46 years of being a fan calling a Bills player a disappointment. The best is yet to come with this kid.

 

There is a saying that comes to mind when someone tells me to express why I am confident in Allen moving forward...that analogy is,  I may not be able to describe something of a pornographic nature, but I sure know what it looks like when I see it.

 

Allen, to me, is the second coming of John Elway.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

I hate the off season 

 

 

Cheer up.   There are other sports THAN the Bills.  Become a Yankees fan.   27 straight winning seasons and no end in sight.   If ownership doesn't get too frugal they may even top their own major US sports record of 39 straight from 1926-1964.      Can't go wrong.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

There will be a perceived drop off In 2020 but only because the schedule is about 2.75 wins tougher.  

 

 

So you are thinking improvement would be 8-8 or 9-7?

 

They should be able to bring back a roster that is much, much better and with continuity in the staff and front office they should be expected to win the division and get at least a bye.

 

The expectations for this team should be their highest since the 1996 or 1999 teams.

[altleg]

I believe in the run up to his draft the Bills showed a lot of interest in Trubisky.  Recall even Terry went to a workout somewhat "under cover"

[Charles Romes]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So you are thinking improvement would be 8-8 or 9-7?

 

They should be able to bring back a roster that is much, much better and with continuity in the staff and front office they should be expected to win the division and get at least a bye.

 

The expectations for this team should be their highest since the 1996 or 1999 teams.

They could be 10-6 in 2020, but get to 10 wins having to win their last game, and be much better than the 10-6 2019 team. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

And lost a lot of close games that could’ve gone either way 

Thank you!  Pats twice, Ravens  and that playoff game that I'm in denial about

[Boatdrinks]

Lazy take by hype media with their agenda on the “ chosen” young QBs. 

[Foxx]

i expect the Bills will take a step backwards in the win-loss department next year. yet, actually be a better team.