Mango Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Motorin' said: I think there is a chance the Bills take a step backwards next season due to strength of schedule. Eli Manning had a big jump his 2nd year, stayed flat his 3rd year, and a huge regression in his 4th year, and then won the Super Bowl in his 5th year. The Bills are in it for the long haul. Everyone wants to see Josh improve next year. But it's 5th and 6th year Josh that the league has to worry about. If Josh doesn’t have a big 4th/5th year where he can compete as an above average passer, the.l their won’t be a year 6. There is no way you give $35-40M to a 58% passer who puts the ball on the ground/throws interceptions about as often as he finds the end zone. Take 40M from this teams roster and ask if Allen can make up for it. Until that answer is yes, he doesn’t get a 6th year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, unclepete said: Bills also won a ton of close games. That could've gone either way. Not in similar fashion. Most games in the NFL are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclepete Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Not in similar fashion. Most games in the NFL are close. We also had amongst the easiest schedules in the league. Only beat one team with a winning record and that was before their QB change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Dude Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, stuvian said: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-2020-outlook-buffalo-is-on-the-rise-but-dont-count-out-the-possibility-of-a-2019-bears-type-season/ I agree if they don't sign 2-3 play making free agents, their schedule was easy and they struggled playing good teams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 33 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: LOL...yeah, OK. Maybe you should actually watch Trubisky play football. Stats.....for people that can't decipher what they are seeing. Like for instance when someone has a biased view of a player. It’s easy for someone to see what they want to see. But when what they see consistently differs from the metrics - in the direction of their preference - then the culprit is usually bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Like for instance when someone has a biased view of a player. It’s easy for someone to see what they want to see. But when what they see consistently differs from the metrics - in the direction of their preference - then the culprit is usually bias. So, who would you take as your QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 While his raw numbers look better across the board than they did last year, the advanced metrics indicate the improvement was marginal at best. A year ago, he ranked 33rd in DYAR and DVOA, and 26th in total QBR. This year, he finished 27th in DYAR and DVOA, and 26th in total QBR. This section isn't proof that that Allen's improvement was "marginal at best." It's proof that DVOA and QBR are poor metrics for grading QB play. There is a bizarre level of blind trust in "advanced metrics" in NFL media. Passer rating, ANY/A, and YPA still get it done. I mean this article points out that according to QBR Trubisky was the 3rd best QB in 2018. Uhhhh, no. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 In all the euphoria of making the Playoffs...it really did get lost to the ease of the Bills 2019 Opponents. at one point it was reported: Based on current DVOA, the Buffalo Bills are projected to finish with the easiest schedule faced by any defense ever. Their remaining schedule of opposing offenses is easier than New England's. Current record is 1992 Chargers (-10.9%). All that and most games still came down to final quarter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: So, who would you take as your QB? Between Trubisky and Allen? Or in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeSomeProcess Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Huge difference is that Bears depleted there talent, didn’t add to it. And lost Vic. The Bears weren’t active in free agency, actually lost there best offense player in Howard. Then didn’t pick in the 3rd round which lead to a bad draft ( Montgomery was good) 1 hour ago, Penfield45 said: how is Allen better than Tribusky ? Trubisky had a much better year statistically than Allen did. in their year 2's they are about the same right now. Allen has more total tds and less turnovers than Mitch did in year two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternOHBillsFan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Rc2catch said: And they made Tarik Cohen a focal point of the offense which skewed Trubiskys numbers with all those dump off big plays, this year it’s like they forgot Cohen was on the team for multiple games at a time. No Jordan Howard to pound the ball.... made a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Did a good job pointing out how the Bills team isn’t the 2017 Jags or 2018 Bears. When you live off turnovers for points, like the Cheating Pats did this year, you have more room for regression. Yep that is where the Bears defense regressed from 2018 to 2019. They went from 27 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, and 6 defensive TDs to 10 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries, and 1 defensive TD. So they had half the turnovers in 2019 and 5 less TDs. This year we had 14 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries, and 0 defensive TDs. There isnt much room for regression there. So yeah if the Bills suddenly rack up a bunch of injuries on defense they will regress. Other than that it's all on Josh Allen to keep improving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 58 minutes ago, Sweats said: Our D should be compared to the 85 Bears D!!!!!! more like the 2000 Ravens!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said: No Jordan Howard to pound the ball.... made a huge difference. Agreed there as well. Montgomery didn’t play well until the second half. Cohen was their difference maker and homerun threat though. All their tight ends get hurt and no Howard and they forgot Cohen. And then the offensive genius Nagy decided to scare goat his offensive staff and fire them cause he can’t make adjustments off the playbook Andy Reid taught him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Keys to Bills 2020... JA learning some basics like sack avoidance,panic avoidance, sensing where defenders are when passing short,protection of the ball when he runs. Keeping the defense together.While not the 85 bears or the 2000 ravens; this defense is very very good. -When people talk about schedule difficulty a yr ahead that can be very flawed.Things change rapidly inthis league.Jets and the dolphins were not an easy out by the end of this season.Titans may have been the best team in the league down the stretch.You cant look at a schedule a year ahead and know how easy or tough it will be EXC if this was the past 20 yrs and you played in the AFC east with the Bills Dolphins and Jets;) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Mango said: Mitch Trubisky has 1 less 4 quarter comeback to Josh Allen. They have near identical 3rd down conversion rates when passing. Mitch has the advantage by 0.2%. So I guess by your “important stats” they are still pretty similar... It’s a very apt comparison. This team will be as good as Allen next year. If he takes the next step, the Bills should win the East by 2 games. If he continues to wallow at the bottom of the league with the Mitch Trubiskys and Gardner Minshews, then it won’t matter how good the rest of the roster is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternOHBillsFan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: Agreed there as well. Montgomery didn’t play well until the second half. Cohen was their difference maker and homerun threat though. All their tight ends get hurt and no Howard and they forgot Cohen. And then the offensive genius Nagy decided to scare goat his offensive staff and fire them cause he can’t make adjustments off the playbook Andy Reid taught him Normally I wouldn't be as knowledgeable about the Bears but last year Jordan Howard was my fantasy back when Cohen started getting more touches. The playcalling creativity of Nagy can only take them so far... fortunately we're not the Bears and we will build around Devin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The difference, as has already been stated, is that the bears defense was big play dependent. The Bills is all around solid (and has been for 3 years now) based as much on scheme as individual performance. Another big difference is that the Bears offense in 18 was the go for broke offense of weapons and scheme. The bills are just building their offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Billl said: It’s a very apt comparison. This team will be as good as Allen next year. If he takes the next step, the Bills should win the East by 2 games. If he continues to wallow at the bottom of the league with the Mitch Trubiskys and Gardner Minshews, then it won’t matter how good the rest of the roster is. right on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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