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AFC QBs heading into 2020 - major transitions coming


Flip Johnson

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I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

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I would add that the Brown, Jets and Broncos all feel pretty good about their QB situations (not the other aspects of the team), at least as good as Buffalo does. I think at the end of the day Allen, Darnold and Baker have all kinda reached the same point but taken different paths to get there. IMO none of that group have clearly separated themselves from the others and based on what Ive seen nobody in NY or Cleveland is ready to be done with their QB. Also I think Drew Lock has shown enough to be excited for next year.

 

If were being honest here we all should be having our fingers crossed extra hard for Allen. Hes improved and lead this team to 10 wins but he still has things to work on.

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36 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

 

great analysis.  I think PGH will be fine with Ben back, but they need to draft and groom a backup.  

 

I think Tenn will stick with Tanny.  He seems to have a rapport with the WR's there, but it will tie up a huge chunk of $$, and they also have to pay Henry.  

 

Not sure what Indy will do.  Looks like a potential QB purgatory there, or a Brady landing spot.  

 

I think Jacksonville sticks with Minshew, and drafts another guy.  Or Brady spot.  

 

NE:  finally, their reign of QB ridiculousness is over.  

 

Cincy: getting a stud in the draft.  That team should rebuild quickly, and I think quicker than Cleveland, unless they replace Kitchens.  

 

Oak:  I'd keep Carr and draft.  

 

Wildcard in all of this: Where is Rosen next year.  He has had two really historically bad teams.  Perhaps he goes to PGH as the backup?  He'd be servicable behind a competent OL.  

 

 

Edited by RyanC883
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2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

great analysis.  I think PGH will be fine with Ben back, but they need to draft and groom a backup.  

 

 

Did you see him on Sunday night? Clearly following the Karlos Williams hand book on NFL dieting...

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26 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I'd say the Jets and Browns are probably closer to our perspective, just that their organizations are so full of ***** that it's dirtied their glasses when looking at the roster. 

I'd add Cinci as well (they're certainly happy to be getting the QB they want this year). Likewise with Miami; they'll either be happy with the QB they get in the draft or they don't really care about addressing the position this offseason at all.

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12 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

great analysis.  I think PGH will be fine with Ben back, but they need to draft and groom a backup.  

 

I think Tenn will stick with Tanny.  He seems to have a rapport with the WR's there, but it will tie up a huge chunk of $$, and they also have to pay Henry.  

 

Not sure what Indy will do.  Looks like a potential QB purgatory there, or a Brady landing spot.  

 

I think Jacksonville sticks with Minshew, and drafts another guy.  Or Brady spot.  

 

NE:  finally, their reign of QB ridiculousness is over.  

 

Cincy: getting a stud in the draft.  That team should rebuild quickly, and I think quicker than Cleveland, unless they replace Kitchens.  

 

Oak:  I'd keep Carr and draft.  

 

Wildcard in all of this: Where is Rosen next year.  He has had two really historically bad teams.  Perhaps he goes to PGH as the backup?  He'd be servicable behind a competent OL.  

 

 

"Wildcard in all of this: Where is Rosen next year.  He has had two really historically bad teams.  Perhaps he goes to PGH as the backup?  He'd be servicable behind a competent OL." I think the verdict is still out on that. On one hand he has not been given much, but Murray is in a similar situation this year in Ariz and looks better and Fitzpatrick has had the same exact situation in Miami and has been much more successful. he is worth a flyer for some team, but I would not say it is a given that he would be servicable in any situation until he shows it on the field.

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More importantly is how well run/coached the teams are and stack up vs each other.  For me, is there any organization, front office plus coaching staff you'd trade in the AFC for ours?  Yea I know the recency bias is strong here but I truly think we're one of the best run organizations in the league which is amazing considering where we were just 3 years ago.  

 

When you look at that here is what I have:

 

Elite:

 

Kansas City 

Buffalo

Pittsburgh 

Edit:  Baltimore 

 

Good:

 

New England (Brady is done its over)

Houston

 

Everyone else

 

 

Edited by Big Blitz
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31 minutes ago, jletha said:

I would add that the Brown, Jets and Broncos all feel pretty good about their QB situations (not the other aspects of the team), at least as good as Buffalo does. I think at the end of the day Allen, Darnold and Baker have all kinda reached the same point but taken different paths to get there. IMO none of that group have clearly separated themselves from the others and based on what Ive seen nobody in NY or Cleveland is ready to be done with their QB. Also I think Drew Lock has shown enough to be excited for next year.

 

If were being honest here we all should be having our fingers crossed extra hard for Allen. Hes improved and lead this team to 10 wins but he still has things to work on.

This ^

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30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Did you see him on Sunday night? Clearly following the Karlos Williams hand book on NFL dieting...

Yeah, I doubt Roethlisberger plays again.  Looks like Robert Baratheon.

Edited by mannc
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5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

More importantly is how well run/coached the teams are and stack up vs each other.  For me, is there any organization, front office plus coaching staff you'd trade in the AFC for ours?  Yea I know the recency bias is strong here but I truly think we're one of the best run organizations in the league which is amazing considering where we were just 3 years ago.  

 

When you look at that here is what I have:

 

Elite:

 

Kansas City 

Buffalo

Pittsburgh 

 

Good:

 

New England (Brady is done its over)

Houston

 

Everyone else

 

 

 

I'd add Baltimore to the elite category. 

 

I also don't think Houston is very good (FO+Coach).  Bill O'brien is NOT a good coach.  He doesn't elevate his team on game day and the fact that he's also the GM (look at how bad their off season was in the draft and free agency) is also pretty damning.  Zero people skills.  His handling of the Clowney situation was a joke.  He and the team have been "successful" because of how good their defense has been historically and also because the roster had key superstar talent at important positions when he came on board (Watt, Hopkins) and drafting an obvious stud in Watson.  O'brien has underwhelmed in the playoffs too.  

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16 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

More importantly is how well run/coached the teams are and stack up vs each other.  For me, is there any organization, front office plus coaching staff you'd trade in the AFC for ours?  Yea I know the recency bias is strong here but I truly think we're one of the best run organizations in the league which is amazing considering where we were just 3 years ago.  

 

When you look at that here is what I have:

 

Elite:

 

Kansas City 

Buffalo

Pittsburgh 

 

Good:

 

New England (Brady is done its over)

Houston

 

Everyone else

 

 

I think you have to add Harbaugh to elite. The Ravens have been consistently competitive and he retooled successfully on the fly. He’s a good coach.

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2 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

 

It’s also fun to wonder where Fitz plays next. Maybe New England to complete his afc east jersey collection? 

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1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

I'd say the Jets and Browns are probably closer to our perspective, just that their organizations are so full of ***** that it's dirtied their glasses when looking at the roster. 

 

yeah, there is almost no way either team moves on at this point.

 

I think we could almost lock Burrow in Cincinnati

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Pittsburgh -  Won’t Abe Simpson come out of retirement?  He’s about Ben’s age.

 

Las Vegas -  Has a secret weapon.  Ixnay ohsay.  ?

 

J’ville - Minishew stylin’ at 1/10 the wardrobe cost of the dandy Baker in Cleveland.  Must be because he shops at St. Vincent de Paul thrift store.

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2 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

 

Two comments I'd make are:

 

Baltimore: Really should state the identical for Jackson as Allen.  IMO one season, no matter how great they looked doesn't make someone a star most important with staying power.

 

Cleveland:  Not sure how much the issue is Bake or coaching.  Next year will likely figure it out, though if Kitchens lasts, still may not know the answer.

 

 

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2 hours ago, yungmack said:

And with several NFC teams in need as well, this could be a banner year for drafting QBs. 

Draft?!  DRAFT?!  Send Miami a JUGGS machine and a case of Hebrew National hot dogs and someone can probably snag Rosen.

*
Thanks and a tip of the Hatlo hat to Jim Mora. 

Edited by Ridgewaycynic2013
SIX times the sumbitch capitalized Hot Dogs! ?
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15 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

 

Not a bad list.  I'd alter (as others have suggested) that the Jets have thier guy, and even though we still have games to play, you can pencil in Joe Burrow for the bengals.  I think the Titans are going to pay Tannehill.  I agree Ben has gas in the tank.  

 

One more note....Denver is going to head to 2020 with Drew Lock....that may or may not be a good idea at this point, but they aren't going to be in the QB market....Lock would have to be so incredibly bad these last 2 games....I don't see that...they'll move forward..not unlike Buffalo with Allen.

 

That leaves 

 

Chargers. -  Rivers is done.

NE - Brady is pretty much done, although if he plays again next year...I'd think it would be in NE.

Indy - I agree, Brissett isn't a long term answer, but I'd guess he gets another season.

Oakland - Because of how it all plays out, I don't think Carr will be replaced this offseason, but he's done being the undisputed starter.  Gruden will have guys in to compete and could replace Carr....I don't see the Raiders really in a place to draft a  guy this year.

 

The good news for Buffalo is that it appears you have a solid team and even if the QB isn't elite....you can win with him and he can make some plays in the clutch.  That gets you places.  Should be a good era for a while for you guys. 

 

Last....I am rooting like hell for a Bills win this week!  KC gets the 2 seed if you all can get it done. (I think you can!) ....and that may lead to us seeing each other in the playoffs....would be fun!  Might be the first of many Allen/Mahomes postseason meetings.  We'll see!

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16 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

I know we'll have all offseason to talk about this, but I want to mention that by my calculations Buffalo is one of only four teams in the AFC that could feel genuinely good about their QB situation going into 2020.

 

KC - they have a star in Mahomes.

Houston - they have a star in Watson

Baltimore - they have a star in Jackson

Buffalo - they have a young QB that improved drastically from yr 1 to yr 2.

 

Everyone else ranges from "uncertain" to "starting over" to "no plan whatsoever."

 

New England - headed towards a major decision with a 42-yr old QB. Seems like a parting of ways

New York Jets - will obviously stick with Darnold but the mono, the coaching situation, and the general mess of the team has made this a wasted year in his development.

Miami - should be drafting a QB

 

Pittsburgh - hoping Ben comes back healthy, no long term plan in place.

Cleveland - will stick with Baker but can't be happy about the way the needle is pointing, as yr 2 has been much worse than yr 1

Cincinnati - drafting

 

Tennessee - big decision on making a financial commitment to Tannehill based on half a season.

Indy - probably realizing Brissett is a backup.

Jacksonville - probably cleaning house, in jail with the Foles contract, can't really think Minshew is the answer.

 

Los Angeles - probably realizing Rivers is done.

Oakland - can't feel great about Carr, could be drafting.

Denver - crossing their fingers about Drew Lock.

 

 

IMO you're underestimating the situations in NE, PIT, CLE, LA and OAK. Maybe even Denver. Some of those teams don't look good if you're looking three or four years down the road, but for 2020 I think they all look solid.

 

The four you mention are the young guys who at least right now look like they maybe have futures. But there are other ways to be happy about 2020 than having a guy under 25 years old.

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18 hours ago, jletha said:

I would add that the Brown, Jets and Broncos all feel pretty good about their QB situations (not the other aspects of the team), at least as good as Buffalo does. I think at the end of the day Allen, Darnold and Baker have all kinda reached the same point but taken different paths to get there. IMO none of that group have clearly separated themselves from the others and based on what Ive seen nobody in NY or Cleveland is ready to be done with their QB. Also I think Drew Lock has shown enough to be excited for next year.

 

If were being honest here we all should be having our fingers crossed extra hard for Allen. Hes improved and lead this team to 10 wins but he still has things to work on.

This is exactly where I’m at...it’s important for fans to remember that even though JA has improved, he is still near the bottom of the league in many major statistical categories...that’s mainly due to him being “off the charts” bad last year...there are rookie QBs that have out performed him in several categories this year so he still has a looooong way to go before I will feel comfortable with him as the “franchise” QB.

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