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Do you really need to have a top tier #1 WR to be successful?


Magox

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I keep reading from a number of posters the belief or direct implication that in order to have a successful football offense that you need a top tiered #1 WR.

 

The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  

 

My belief is that if you can field 4 quality and complimentary WR's that are not considered "True #1's" that not only can you get by but thrive as long as there is a QB that can distribute it.

 

If Foster can improve upon what he did last year you will have a really speedy and productive mid to deep threat.  

If John Brown can continue what he was beginning to show when Flacco was the QB last year, then you have another ultra fast effective deep threat.

Beasley is an upper tiered slot receiver that has shown time and time again that he can get open.

Zay improved markedly from his rookie year but I still have some doubts with him.  He would need to continue to improve.

 

And I still believe the Bills will draft a WR in this years draft, there are too many good prospects to not go after at least one of them.   

 

The speed of Foster and Brown should really help open up the field and lead to dynamic plays and I believe that Daboll will continue to install his vertical passing offense that should create lots of opportunities for Beasley/Kroft and running lanes for Josh to scramble.  Yeah, we don't want him running too often but to not utilize his rushing skills would be insane.  

 

I'm excited, I think most of the receiving pieces are potentially here.   Which is a far cry from where we were one year ago.   

 

 

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Maybe it’s just me but the quarterbacks seem to thrive big time with these elite guys getting them the ball early on,  But as time goes on they all seem to get worse.

I think an argument can be made that the tunnel vision to lock on to these elite receivers seems to hurt some quarterbacks overall game of reading the field and finding other guys. 10 years ago maybe not such a big deal, just seems to be a growing trend of today’s quarterbacks. 

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Nope, see the Pats****.  And even Rams to some extent.  

 

A top WR does not "carry" a team.   Nice to have and makes winning easier, but not necessary.  And, the WR's we have (Brown and Foster and Beasley, and Zay) play into Allen's strengths.  They should perform better here than elsewhere if Allen progresses.  

 

I also think a WR in Rd. 2-3 has the potential to be a #1.  

1 minute ago, Bills2ref said:

I guess we will find out this season. People are sleeping on John Brown though. 715 yards and 5TDS while playing with Lamar for half the year. 

 

exactly.  he could put up gigantic numbers here.  Esp with Foster opposite.  And Beasley working the middle.  

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Funny thing. The four teams with the consensus top 4 receivers in the NFL (Giants, Steelers, Bengals, Falcons) didn't make the playoffs. All had established QBs. 

I think it could help having a top tier WR,  but isn't make or break.

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16 minutes ago, Magox said:

I keep reading from a number of posters the belief or direct implication that in order to have a successful football offense that you need a top tiered #1 WR.

 

The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  

 

My belief is that if you can field 4 quality and complimentary WR's that are not considered "True #1's" that not only can you get by but thrive as long as there is a QB that can distribute it.

 

If Foster can improve upon what he did last year you will have a really speedy and productive mid to deep threat.  

If John Brown can continue what he was beginning to show when Flacco was the QB last year, then you have another ultra fast effective deep threat.

Beasley is an upper tiered slot receiver that has shown time and time again that he can get open.

Zay improved markedly from his rookie year but I still have some doubts with him.  He would need to continue to improve.

 

And I still believe the Bills will draft a WR in this years draft, there are too many good prospects to not go after at least one of them.   

 

The speed of Foster and Brown should really help open up the field and lead to dynamic plays and I believe that Daboll will continue to install his vertical passing offense that should create lots of opportunities for Beasley/Kroft and running lanes for Josh to scramble.  Yeah, we don't want him running too often but to not utilize his rushing skills would be insane.  

 

I'm excited, I think most of the receiving pieces are potentially here.   Which is a far cry from where we were one year ago.   

 

 

Hard pressed to find pro bowlers? AFC playoffs just this year.

 

Hilton

Allen

Hill

Hopkins

 

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A top reciever makes a less then stellar QB look a bit better.  Generally a team has a great QB or a great WR.  Not usually both.  Great QBs are more likely to carry a team then great WRs as it is much easier defensively to take a WR out of the game then a QB.

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20 minutes ago, Magox said:

I keep reading from a number of posters the belief or direct implication that in order to have a successful football offense that you need a top tiered #1 WR.

 

The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  

 

My belief is that if you can field 4 quality and complimentary WR's that are not considered "True #1's" that not only can you get by but thrive as long as there is a QB that can distribute it.

 

If Foster can improve upon what he did last year you will have a really speedy and productive mid to deep threat.  

If John Brown can continue what he was beginning to show when Flacco was the QB last year, then you have another ultra fast effective deep threat.

Beasley is an upper tiered slot receiver that has shown time and time again that he can get open.

Zay improved markedly from his rookie year but I still have some doubts with him.  He would need to continue to improve.

 

And I still believe the Bills will draft a WR in this years draft, there are too many good prospects to not go after at least one of them.   

 

The speed of Foster and Brown should really help open up the field and lead to dynamic plays and I believe that Daboll will continue to install his vertical passing offense that should create lots of opportunities for Beasley/Kroft and running lanes for Josh to scramble.  Yeah, we don't want him running too often but to not utilize his rushing skills would be insane.  

 

I'm excited, I think most of the receiving pieces are potentially here.   Which is a far cry from where we were one year ago.   

 

 

 

Nice post.  I don't think a team needs a WR1, but I do think that having such a player is extremely beneficial for the development of a young QB.

 

I know I've said it already, but, IMO, the best thing about Buffalo's WR group is that they have multiple types of each style of WR with which Allen had success last year.

 

They have Foster and John Brown to play the boundary speed role.

They have Beasley and Zay to play the shiftier slot role.

They have McKenzie and Victor Bolden to play the gadget role.

 

What they're missing is the big-bodied, catch radius red-zone guy IMO.  Maybe they feel like they can count on Kroft/Croom to be that guy, but I sure would like to see a N'Keal Harry type of 50/50 ball specialist with some downfield speed added in the draft to fill that role.

 

Just my 1 cent.

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1 hour ago, Magox said:

The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  

 

Not to pick nits but Julio Jones was 1st team all pro in 2016 and was on a Super Bowl losing team that lost in OT in the Super Bowl. In fact last year both 1st team All Pro QBs didn't play in the Super Bowl. The winning SB QB hasn't been a 1st team All Pro since 2016.

 

I guess my point is, I'm not really sure that there's a point to be made there with regards to being 1st team All Pro. Plenty of 1st team All Pro WRs have played in the NFC/AFC Championship games, and have lost. Does that mean they aren't needed?

Edited by Wayne Cubed
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17 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Hard pressed to find pro bowlers? AFC playoffs just this year.

 

Hilton

Allen

Hill

Hopkins

 

"The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  "

2 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Not to pick nits but Julio Jones was 1st team all pro in 2016 and was on a Super Bowl losing team that lost in OT in the Super Bowl. In fact last year both 1st team All Pro QBs didn't play in the Super Bowl. That hasn't happened since 2016.

 

I guess my point is, I'm not really sure that there's a point to be made there with regards to being 1st team All Pro. Plenty of 1st team All Pro WRs have played in the NFC/AFC Championship games, and have lost. Does that mean they aren't needed?

I did say "winning" Superbowl team.

 

Dont get me wrong, would love to have one but they arent needed.

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54 minutes ago, Magox said:

I keep reading from a number of posters the belief or direct implication that in order to have a successful football offense that you need a top tiered #1 WR.

 

The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  

 

My belief is that if you can field 4 quality and complimentary WR's that are not considered "True #1's" that not only can you get by but thrive as long as there is a QB that can distribute it.

 

If Foster can improve upon what he did last year you will have a really speedy and productive mid to deep threat.  

If John Brown can continue what he was beginning to show when Flacco was the QB last year, then you have another ultra fast effective deep threat.

Beasley is an upper tiered slot receiver that has shown time and time again that he can get open.

Zay improved markedly from his rookie year but I still have some doubts with him.  He would need to continue to improve.

 

And I still believe the Bills will draft a WR in this years draft, there are too many good prospects to not go after at least one of them.   

 

The speed of Foster and Brown should really help open up the field and lead to dynamic plays and I believe that Daboll will continue to install his vertical passing offense that should create lots of opportunities for Beasley/Kroft and running lanes for Josh to scramble.  Yeah, we don't want him running too often but to not utilize his rushing skills would be insane.  

 

I'm excited, I think most of the receiving pieces are potentially here.   Which is a far cry from where we were one year ago.   

 

 

I think people are overthinking this.  Obviously, you don't absolutely have to have a top three receiver to be successful.  But the better your receivers (including TE and RB, by the way), the better chance your QB has to be successful.  A great wideout with elite speed like Tyreek Hill opens up the entire offense for the Chiefs and creates opportunities for other receivers and the running game.  It's not really debatable.  That doesn't guaranty your team is going to the Super Bowl (you still need a QB, and lots of other parts, including a defense), but having a top wideout definitely helps.  But if the argument is that you shouldn't trade multiple number 1 picks for someone you hope will become an elite WR, then I wouldn't disagree.       

26 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Not to pick nits but Julio Jones was 1st team all pro in 2016 and was on a Super Bowl losing team that lost in OT in the Super Bowl. In fact last year both 1st team All Pro QBs didn't play in the Super Bowl. That hasn't happened since 2016.

 

I guess my point is, I'm not really sure that there's a point to be made there with regards to being 1st team All Pro. Plenty of 1st team All Pro WRs have played in the NFC/AFC Championship games, and have lost. Does that mean they aren't needed?

FWIW, I seem to recall that a WR was the Super Bowl MVP this year.

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Not once your QB has established himself - but playing a guy in year 1-2-3-4 without once stunts his growth or stops it all together

6 minutes ago, Rufridr101 said:

Who was the patriots number one last year

Pats are different  you have Brady who has been in the same offense for 18 years-- they have a gronk. Players like gronk--graham-kelce-ertz- delaney walker or witten tyoes you can run your normal offense if it goes great if not you can always throw it to the TE who is open even when he is covered. Great hands put it up high....always in qb vision around the hash marks. These guys let a qb take chances knowing if i miss it I can come right back for the first down

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I don't know if a number one is needed, per say, but someone who can consistently get open, move the chains and catches most of the balls he sees would be nice. The team has had 1 100 catch receiver ever, Eric Moulds. With the new NFL throwing the ball all over the place, they need more than Zay Jones 56 catches to lead them. 

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1 hour ago, loyal2dagame said:

Funny thing. The four teams with the consensus top 4 receivers in the NFL (Giants, Steelers, Bengals, Falcons) didn't make the playoffs. All had established QBs. 

I think it could help having a top tier WR,  but isn't make or break.

 

While I agree with you about not needing a top WR, Hopkins is a top 4 WR and made the playoffs.  

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1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

Nope, see the Pats****.  And even Rams to some extent.  

 

The Pats are and have been the exception to the rule.  Woods, Cook and Kupp are a damn good trio!

 

The vast majority of teams need a legit #1 or a good collection of wideouts that fit a scheme.  We're still lacking, which is why Beane kicked the tires on Brown and Beckham.

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1 hour ago, Magox said:

"The last 1st team All Pro WR  who was on a super bowl winning team was all the way back in 2006 with Marvin Harrison.   Heck, even if you go back the last 10 years to see the top WR's on the winning team, you would be hard pressed to find a handful of pro bowl receivers.  "

I did say "winning" Superbowl team.

 

Dont get me wrong, would love to have one but they arent needed.

 

I do know you said "winning" but Jones was literally minutes away from winning in OT, does that mean because his team didn't win it's not necessary? I don't really think you can make that argument.

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3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I do know you said "winning" but Jones was literally minutes away from winning in OT, does that mean because his team didn't win it's not necessary? I don't really think you can make that argument.

I didnt say having a top tiered WR precludes you from winning a superbowl I said not having one isnt necessary to win a superbowl.

 

 

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I posted this in another thread, but definitely think it fits this discussion too --- definitely worth the read! https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/debunking-the-myth-of-the-weak-2019-wr-class The gist is that the NFL is evolving into a league where the definition of "#1 WR" no longer has to mean the Randy Moss/TO prototype. As Beane said at the combine, it's more about guys who can figure out a way to get open and/or schemes to get them open. So if the question is, do we need DK Metcalf to win, the above would suggest no.

 

That being said, there are a variety of ways of getting open, and the NFL will always be a league where mismatches are highly sought after. So it's also not unfair to say, simply walking off the bus, that DK Metcalf possess advantages in his height, verticality and physicality that John Brown does not. Another way of saying this is that physical attributes are still an advantage (duh) but not the be-all/end-all that they once were perceived to be. 

 

With yesterday's pickups, we have speed to stretch the field in Brown and Foster, and guys who can work the seems and the middle in Zay and Beasley... What we lack is that vertical/physical/catch-radius component (which might be critical, given JA's less than pinpoint accuracy) that can be so critical in extending drives and succeeding in the red zone.

 

Going into the draft, I loved Deebo Samuel and McClaurin, but given everything above, I think if we go WR early, it will likely be more of the big bodied type. Not, necessarily because you need that to win, but because it will contribute to the diversity of this offense (just please don't let it be JJ Arcega-Whiteside!!! ?)...

 

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2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why would you look at it that way? 

 

A top WR helps your QB and offense immensely. It opens up the field of play for everybody on your offense. Take a look at the Giants with and without Odell in the lineup. It was night and day for the most part. 

 

Is it 100% necessary? No, but it certainly helps a ***** ton for everyone else. 

 

 

IMO, a star WR is icing on the cake.  You can't rely on him to make your offense function.

I'd rather spend the money and draft capital shoring up both lines.  That is how you win.

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I feel like sometimes its sort of like pitchers in baseball - you pad your numbers during the year against mediocre ones, then hit .200 in the playoffs because you only get to face solid pitchers.  During the regular season you get to play mediocre teams and you can just rely on talent alone.  Once the playoffs roll around typically the best coaches, the best defenses are still around so its tougher to have the same impact in the stat column.

 

QB kind of trumps everything.  If you don't have one you probably stink.

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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

but I sure would like to see a N'Keal Harry type of 50/50 ball specialist with some downfield speed added in the draft to fill that role.

 

Just my 1 cent.

 

This is the guy I'd like to see them target in the 2nd round as well.

 

So now there are 2 cents.

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2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Why would you look at it that way? 

 

A top WR helps your QB and offense immensely. It opens up the field of play for everybody on your offense. Take a look at the Giants with and without Odell in the lineup. It was night and day for the most part. 

 

Is it 100% necessary? No, but it certainly helps a ***** ton for everyone else. 

 

 

I look at it that way because elite WRs are passé expensive dinosaurs... it’s obsolete 

 

they are nice to have at best and certainly not worth bidding for in Free agency. 

 

Giants make my point. Making your whole offense reliant on 1 WR is schematically dumb. Even still giants were harldly better with him vs without him. 

 

count the rings for me please:

 

julio

OBJ

AB

Evans

Fitzgerald

DeAndre

AJ Greene 

Keenan Allen

Micheal Thomas 

Diggs

TY

Lanrdy Theilen 

Devonte

Amari

 

0

 

Golden Tate , Julian Edelman are the most elite WRs with rings.  

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3 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I look at it that way because elite WRs are passé expensive dinosaurs... it’s obsolete 

 

they are nice to have at best and certainly not worth bidding for in Free agency. 

 

Giants make my point. Making your whole offense reliant on 1 WR is schematically dumb. Even still giants were harldly better with him vs without him. 

 

count the rings for me please:

 

julio

OBJ

AB

Evans

Fitzgerald

DeAndre

AJ Greene 

Keenan Allen

Micheal Thomas 

Diggs

TY

Lanrdy Theilen 

Devonte

Amari

 

0

 

Golden Tate , Julian Edelman are the most elite WRs with rings.  

Brandon Cooks is about as "elite" as Tate. Neither of them are truly elite though.

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Actually this depends on the OL and QB also. Brady / Brees get rid of the ball so quickly and spread it around - so they do not need a #1 WR (or even a superlative great OLine). But if you have an Oline that can give a QB time in the pocket, a #1 WR is invaluable. Because, by definition #1 WRs have everything - speed, separation, catch radius and elevation - given time they will get open and provide a target for the waiting QB.

 

We have a QB who could buy time with his scrambling even if the Oline was bad. So I think he will benefit for having a #1 WR like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, OBJ or DeAndre Hopkins. funny - Brees doesnt need a #1 but still has one in Michael Thomas. Somewhat like Randy Moss that one year with Brady.

 

The above description does not mean Allen wont do well with a WR by committee. With Foster and John Brown extending the field and Beasley and Zay underneath, opposing defenses have to pick their poison and with experience, he will be able to pick em apart.

Edited by IgotBILLStopay
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