It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)

[QCity]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

Any given Sunday, yada yada, but it’s looking like Division title or bust.

 

 

Come on now. No need for extra drama this week. The books say there's a ~60% we clinch playoffs before our coin toss.

[dma0034]

I know it's said every year but the NFL needs to get rid of division winners automatically host a game. Let them automatically get a playoff game but put all teams into rankings 1-7 based on their schedule. Browns and Eagles should not have to go to lesser teams because they won their weak divisons (Eagles suck but still)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

41 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

 

Ok then just give Pitt and the Jags the wins because they must win. 

 

They likely will. Are they both favorites? 

[Dr.Sack]

If you can’t beat an injury riddled Miami squad in a 50/50 crowd you were never going to beat KC or Baltimore. Go beat the hell out of them. Maul them from start to finish. Leave no doubt we are the more physical team. 

[SoMAn]

My take has always been that if they need help from other games they probably aren’t good enough to win it all anyway.
If they miss out on the playoffs, the Dolphins can get the first place schedule in 2024 and the Bills will jump several picks in the draft. 
Hoping they do win and show that they’re championship caliber. I believe they’re good enough. The keys will be not taking stupid drive-killing penalties and executing the way they did in the first matchup. 
And….don’t let it be so close that it’s decided by the zebras. It will be a miserable off-season if we have to wait through 8 months of ‘what could have been’ if we feel they got robbed of a win because of bad calls. 

Edited January 4 by SoMAn

[Einstein]

10 hours ago, QCity said:

The books say there's a ~60% we clinch playoffs before our coin toss.

 

No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate.

 

Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory.

 

Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory.

 

I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case.

 

.

Edited January 4 by Einstein

[teef]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Miami has a lot to play for. If they lose I believe they go to Arrowhead to play vs winning and playing at home vs a weaker team. That's a huge difference. Not to mention this division rivals dislike each other. I'm sure the ass whipping Buffalo gave them in week 4 sucked. 

 

In short, Miami will be every but motivated and energetic to play. 

or the opposite.  they were just completely dominated by a team that they'll likely have to beat in the playoffs if they want to go to a super bowl.  they're very banged up right now, and they have to play a team that typically dominates that year in and year out lately.  if bills come in and punch miami in the face early, it could be over early.   

[newcam2012]

15 minutes ago, teef said:

or the opposite.  they were just completely dominated by a team that they'll likely have to beat in the playoffs if they want to go to a super bowl.  they're very banged up right now, and they have to play a team that typically dominates that year in and year out lately.  if bills come in and punch miami in the face early, it could be over early.   

Do you think Buffalo dominated Miami last year?

[teef]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Do you think Buffalo dominated Miami last year?

buffalo has won the last 9 out of 10 games...so yes?

 

edit:  and what a strange question.  why just bring up last year.  it has zero to do with this game, and if you're going to bring up the past, not why not reference mcd and josh's time together against miami

Edited January 4 by teef

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

At this point I've already 100% accepted the Jags & Steelers are winning easily. So the only players I'm watching are Hill, Waddle, Mostert & Achane.  Tua's definitely playing. 

The Steelers are trash. No game for them is 100%

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The Steelers are trash. No game for them is 100%

AND, the Jags haven’t been great recently and T-Law (assuming he plays) is pretty hobbled.  Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Titans pull that one off and do us another solid.

[NeverOutNick]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate.

 

Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory.

 

Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory.

 

I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case.

 

.

Now I get the name Einstein. Love it 

[vanislebills44]

jags 'home' game, jets loss, pats loss, burrows 1 healthy game, allen davis ot philly, 12 men broncos etc etc...all potential wins, n some tuffff losses, any1 of them turns to a dub, yah a moot point....i cried whined bitched moaned n sniveled with the rest of em...doubt steelers n jags lose, possible tho...now JUST WIN, simple...

[QCity]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate.

 

 

 

It is. You have to remove the vig (also Jags -265 is wayyy off as of today). Right now it's 58.9%, a far cry from "bust"

Edited January 4 by QCity

[WacArnolds]

16 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'd be shocked if Pitt or the Jags lose. 

It's possible but I truly think the Ravens may want to lose to try to knock out the dangerous Bills' team. 

Teams don't actually think like that. It's a divisional rival and the backups have something to prove. Not sure they care about a team they likely feel confident they can beat, that controls their own destiny anyway, getting in. 

[Success]

Just reading all of the discussion, and I love it.  What a fun weekend of football ahead - 4 games at different times, all that have a huge impact on our playoff hopes, and culminating with a final game for all the marbles - division title & a #2 seed.

 

I mean, as a great Bills coach once said...where else would you rather be?  That ol' drought is long behind us.

 

[Gregg]

Just now, Success said:

Just reading all of the discussion, and I love it.  What a fun weekend of football ahead - 4 games at different times, all that have a huge impact on our playoff hopes, and culminating with a final game for all the marbles - division title & a #2 seed.

 

I mean, as a great Bills coach once said...where else would you rather be?  That ol' drought is long behind us.

 

 

I am hoping for a stress-free Sunday. Only the Ravens winning on Saturday can do that. Sunday is a big game no matter what, but I won't be as nervous if I know the Bills have a playoff spot clinched before their game Sunday night.

[Dan]

#2 seed, we would face the #7 team at home.  
 

Lose and the best we can hope for is a road game to KC or back in Miami. Then, if we win that, likely on to Baltimore. 
 

I think winning this game is extremely huge to our success in the playoffs!   
 

Go Bills!

Edited January 4 by Dan

[Einstein]

57 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

It is. You have to remove the vig

 

Removing the vig lowers the Titans probability of pulling the upset (it lowers both teams in relation to the vig). I'll explain this below.

 

57 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

(also Jags -265 is wayyy off as of today). Right now it's 58.9%, a far cry from "bust"

I did have old odds for the games. Taking the updated odds of -190 for the Jags and +155 for the Titans, we have 100 / (155 + 100) = 39.22% the Titans win.

 

You can then double check my formula and math by using an odds/probability calculator



The Jags at -190 results in a formula of 190/(190 + 100) = 65.56%

To remove the vig, you calculate the combined implied probability (the sum of both team's implied probabilities), which will be more than 100%, and in our case is 104.72. The extra 4.72 is the vig (here is a simplified equation): (100)-65.56+39.22 = 4.72.

 

Then you divide each team's implied probability by this total to adjust for the vig. 65.52%/104.74% and 39.22%/104.74%. Therefore, here are the adjusted probabilities with the vig removed: 62.55% the Jaguars win and 37.45% the Titans win. 

 

The Ravens are also +155 now, which means both Ravens and Titans have the same probability at 39.22%. The Steelers sit at -190. Same probabilities and same math, equaling the same result. 

So we have a 37.45% the Titans win and a 37.45% chance the Ravens win.

What you are doing is taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)). It's a fair take. We shall see what happens. 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

Edited January 4 by Einstein

[TheFunPolice]

Huntley should have led Baltimore to a playoff upset win at the Bengals last year, if not for a fumble at the 2 yard line that was returned for a TD. 

 

He's going to come to play. The players out there are going to want to win.

[BillsfaninSB]

47 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Huntley should have led Baltimore to a playoff upset win at the Bengals last year, if not for a fumble at the 2 yard line that was returned for a TD. 

 

He's going to come to play. The players out there are going to want to win.

I think about that sometimes.   Should have had the Jags in the snow instead of the Bengals.

 

I wonder if the Bills would have snapped out of their funk if they had reached the AFCCG. 

[chongli]

 

[Big Blitz]

 

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, WacArnolds said:

Teams don't actually think like that. It's a divisional rival and the backups have something to prove. Not sure they care about a team they likely feel confident they can beat, that controls their own destiny anyway, getting in. 

I agree. 

[Big Turk]

On 1/3/2024 at 7:23 PM, Einstein said:

Any given Sunday, yada yada, but it’s looking like Division title or bust.

 

Obviously we all know that the only way the Bills get in with a loss is if Pitt or Jacksonville lose. Well, a couple pieces of news today:

 

1) Ravens (playing Pitt) announced they are making Lamar Jackson inactive. In addition to this, the Ravens reporters on Twitter expect many more starters to sit out or see very little action.

 

2) The Titans (playing Jax) have 15 people on their injury report. That’s nearly 30% of the roster. The Titans are terrible as it is - they can’t afford any players to be injured.

 

 

 

.

 

I remember back when all we had to do is beat the Steelers backups and get some help and we'd be in the playoffs. The help came, we didn't finish our job.

 

Don't think the Ravens backups aren't capable of beating the Steelers.

[NoSaint]

On 1/3/2024 at 6:23 PM, Einstein said:

Any given Sunday, yada yada, but it’s looking like Division title or bust.

 

Obviously we all know that the only way the Bills get in with a loss is if Pitt or Jacksonville lose. Well, a couple pieces of news today:

 

1) Ravens (playing Pitt) announced they are making Lamar Jackson inactive. In addition to this, the Ravens reporters on Twitter expect many more starters to sit out or see very little action.

 

2) The Titans (playing Jax) have 15 people on their injury report. That’s nearly 30% of the roster. The Titans are terrible as it is - they can’t afford any players to be injured.

 

 

 

.

the ravens are starting their backup qb against the Steelers disaster at qb?!?

 

the jags debacle faces a titans debacle?

[loyal2dagame]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I remember back when all we had to do is beat the Steelers backups and get some help and we'd be in the playoffs. The help came, we didn't finish our job.

 

Don't think the Ravens backups aren't capable of beating the Steelers.

It wasn't merely the Steelers backups.  

It was the Steelers backups to the backups.  And we still lost. 

[BarleyNY]

20 hours ago, dma0034 said:

I know it's said every year but the NFL needs to get rid of division winners automatically host a game. Let them automatically get a playoff game but put all teams into rankings 1-7 based on their schedule. Browns and Eagles should not have to go to lesser teams because they won their weak divisons (Eagles suck but still)

Then you have to get rid of divisions and no team should have to play the same opponent twice during the regular season. That would be boring.

[chongli]

53 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Then you have to get rid of divisions and no team should have to play the same opponent twice during the regular season. That would be boring.

 

But NBA still has divisions, and if you win a division, you don't necessarily get home-court advantage in the first series.

[Captain Hindsight]

On 1/3/2024 at 7:28 PM, Einstein said:

 

13 of the 15 were either “limited” or “did not practice”. If you’re a player, you’re hurt, you’re on a 5-11 team… are you pushing to play in a meaningless final game? 🤷🏻‍♂️

As a professional player looking for their next million dollar paycheck? Probably 

12 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate.

 

Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory.

 

Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory.

 

I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case.

 

.

He probably just figured the Steelers were starting some dude name Rudolph 

[DCofNC]

I have no hard time believing both the Jags and Steelers lose.  Both teams suck.  The Steelers can be a problem because of Watt and that defense, and even an average day from a QB can be made to look good with the weapons they have, but they never seem to be able to get even that.  The Jags are frauds, I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, they are the all hype/potential team.  Trevor Lawrence is Blake Bortles with a Head and Shoulders contract.  Josh Allen is only good when he plays Josh Allen. Etienne is a poor man’s James Cook.   They can’t finish drives, their D gets slapped in the mouth quite often and let’s be real, no team wearing teal has ever been a real threat. 

[Nephilim17]

If we can't beat the MASH unit that is the Dolphins we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. And if so, let the purge begin...

[buffblue]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I remember back when all we had to do is beat the Steelers backups and get some help and we'd be in the playoffs. The help came, we didn't finish our job.

 

Don't think the Ravens backups aren't capable of beating the Steelers.

Or how about needing the 6-9 Bengals to beat the Ravens in Baltimore to break a 17 year playoff drought. No one in their right mind thought Cincy would win that game. There was a reason Marvin Lewis was finally being let go

Edited January 5 by buffblue

[chongli]

 

[BarleyNY]

8 hours ago, chongli said:

 

But NBA still has divisions, and if you win a division, you don't necessarily get home-court advantage in the first series.

Okay, but then what is the point of the divisions? The NBA divisions are much less meaningful than in the NFL. They play:

- 4 games each against division opponents

- 4 games each against 6 same conference different division opponents

- 3 games each against the remaining 4 same conference different division opponents and

- 2 games each against all of the teams from the other conference 

 

There is virtually no scheduling difference between the in-division and out-of-division conference opponents. In the NFL two games against same division opponents is 6/17th of the schedule. It’s huge if you’re in, say, the AFCN vs NFCS. The NFL could change their schedule to one game each against every conference team plus two games against out of conference teams, but that seems a little wonky. Would it be better than the current system? How would you schedule seasons?

Edited January 5 by BarleyNY

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Debating which scenario I’d prefer, given one of the two we need to lose drops their game:

 

1) Steelers lose - I like this because as much as I like tomlin, I think he is getting a bit of a free pass this year. A few of their guys annoy me (Watt, Pickens, Johnson). Their QB situation is gross, and given their history of playoffs, winning records and success, it would be comical to watch them self-destruct against a division opponent with the playoffs on the line. 
 

2) Jags lose - On the contrary, I really like a bunch of the players on Jacksonville (Kirk, Nigerian Nightmare, Allen). I don’t think Lawrence is a great QB. I think he’s fine but turns it over a ton. Despite this, it just seems like Jax has been this thorn for us the past handful of years (playoff loss, Urbab Meyer loss, London game) and for once maybe we can exercise those demeans with a little help from the Jags. At the same time, I hate Vrabel. And the titans. I don’t really want to be rooting for them Sunday. 
 

Im going with the Steelers. I’d rather watch them lose. Can’t think of a reason it’d be bad. 

[Radar]

On 1/3/2024 at 7:42 PM, Jrb1979 said:

Yeah cause that's the reason they won't make the AFC championship game. How about the losses to the Pats and Broncos? 

I'd add the Jets to that as well. Those losses were worst than the Jags loss in my opinion.

[chongli]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

I agree with many fans we got absolutely screwed by the league in that London game experiment.  But we've also managed to lose 3 games to teams we should've dominated. The last 2 weeks we've squeeked by against 2 more weaker teams. This has been a chaotic season.  If we have to earn the playoffs by beating Miami,  so be it.  I'd like to at least take a little positive momentum into the playoffs.  If we lose, we didn't deserve it.  We're not getting help so end that nonsense. 

[IronyAbounds]

53 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree with many fans we got absolutely screwed by the league in that London game experiment.  But we've also managed to lose 3 games to teams we should've dominated. The last 2 weeks we've squeeked by against 2 more weaker teams. This has been a chaotic season.  If we have to earn the playoffs by beating Miami,  so be it.  I'd like to at least take a little positive momentum into the playoffs.  If we lose, we didn't deserve it.  We're not getting help so end that nonsense. 

Yeah, I think the Bills need to win if they are going to do anything beyond just making the playoffs. Even if they get in while losing I just don't think they will pull off a road win in the first round. They beat the Dolphins and go in as a 2 seed with at least 2 home games and they may get their sh*t together and complete a trifecta and make it to the Super Bowl.