Bills dead last in goal-line EPA/play last year(inside the 3 yard line) - Warren Sharp analysis

[Charles Romes]

Can’t we blame this on Saffold?

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

It says they werent the primary problem...indicating they where a problem. No defense lined up worried about our running game, play action is huge at the goal line Singletary is slow and our Oline was average. 

 

Really?

[BananaB]

8 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

  But.....3rd in tds per game, everyone in front of them played 17 games. Also they finished 2nd in points per game.

 

 The O was not awful, they justed scored more tds on the longer side & fewer tds on the shorter side than recent years. Exact same ppg as 2021, but more ypg in 2022 vs 2021.

 

 

The O needs to get better in these situations. It’s on Dorsey, he’s gotta improve and I think he can. When you’re comparing Chiefs and bills in these situations you shouldn’t be focusing on Allen and Mahommes, you should be focusing on Reid and Dorsey. 

[artmalibu]

41 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

  But.....3rd in tds per game, everyone in front of them played 17 games. Also they finished 2nd in points per game.

 

 The O was not awful, they justed scored more tds on the longer side & fewer tds on the shorter side than recent years. Exact same ppg as 2021, but more ypg in 2022 vs 2021.

 

 

 

Good point on only playing 16 games!!!   My statement about the O being awful was sarcasm,  shouldn't complain when your 5th in TDs when playing one less game...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

36 minutes ago, BananaB said:

The O needs to get better in these situations. It’s on Dorsey, he’s gotta improve and I think he can. When you’re comparing Chiefs and bills in these situations you shouldn’t be focusing on Allen and Mahommes, you should be focusing on Reid and Dorsey. 

 

 I agree if we're going to beat the best of the best in the playoffs, we have to get better at the short game. Both in goal-line and 3rd and short.

 

 Weird thing is even not being very good at either, they scored the 2nd most ppg and were 1st in 3rd down percentage. When you score a ton of longer tds, it helps out in both areas. Points on the board and 100% of 3rd downs converted on the drive.

 

 Last year they actually had a slightly higher ypg average and 3rd down percentage than the 2020(Imo the best Allen led offense to date) yet averaged 2.9 ppg less than 2020. Short game & turnovers in the redzone.

 

 

 

[1ManRaid]

4 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

 

Do you really not understand how Josh having to scramble for 83 seconds might pad the "time to throw" averages a bit?

 

It's also really unfair to compare him to Mahomes, who is infamous for his 6 inch "shovel passes" driving down his time to throw and driving up his completion percentage.  Anything to stay atop the passing charts I guess.

[balln]

I’ve been it saying for the past 3 years. 
 

josh isn’t consistently pin point accurate w short , intermediate and timing type throws

 

he just isn’t. Mahommes and burrow are insanely better at these than him. Fans need to wake up

 

and it’s ok. He’s still really good. I just hope he levels up. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Meh

 

Looking at plays inside the 3 yard line is such a small sample size I'm not going to assign much meaning to it. 

 

We had a few bad sequences that really skewed the results. Couple plays blown up by poor O-line play, couple mistakes by Josh, and voilà: our offense that was 2nd in points per game is suddenly the worst in the league at something. 

 

How do these stats look if we extend this to plays inside the 5? What about the 10 ?

 

I know we had the 9th best red zone offense in terms of TD %

 

 

[billsherd]

This is why Daboll  looked to score from few yards before the goal line. 

[Big Blitz]

Look at the defenses not remotely concerned about the running game.  These are almost all awful play calls. 
 

 

 

[gordong]

Harris was brought in for this exact reason....  line up 2 TE and Harris in the backfield and the defense is going to line up WAY different.   now you can run play action and have one of the TE sneak out or just throw it up to them... or smash Harris into the Endzone. 

[gobills404]

7 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

Yeah imagine a world where the Bills were 8th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt last season. That’d be so cool!

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-rush-attempt

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Look at the defenses not remotely concerned about the running game.  These are almost all awful play calls. 
 

 

 

Godawful goal line plays and execution. Hopefully Dorsey does his part and self scouts; he needs to make things easier. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

9 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

 

B-I-N-G-O!!!

 

If we had even an average NFL OL, we would simply pound the ball in near the GL.

 

However, OL is just not a priority to Beane so we have to rely on Josh once again to do his magic.

Edited August 17, 2023 by HIT BY SPIKES

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

To an extent, even when he does have the time, do you think it's him knowing the lines track record and expecting to have to get out of dodge, before that first read.

 

Regardless it is a scheme problem to me. If Josh isn't confident he'll be clean till his first read opens, seems like they need to set up something quicker developing.

 

Yea that is kinda what I meant about feeling comfortable. It definitely got to the point last year where Josh had totally lost faith in his line and was imagining pressure where it didn't exist which is completely normal for QBs with bad lines.

[Pirate Angel]

2 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Yeah imagine a world where the Bills were 8th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt last season. That’d be so cool!

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-rush-attempt

Yeah That includes our QB rushing, not exactly ideal inside goal line situations. Singletary's yards where inflated due to nobody giving a ***** if they gave him the ball. If we had a legitimate threat at RB we would have had far more attempts and Singletary would have more suiters in free agency with a loftier contract. 

[Billy Claude]

Anyone have their ranking on short yardage situations in 2020 and 2021? My guess it was decent in 2020 but already not very good in 2021.

[BananaB]

Like to see the total of attempts that determine these percentages. Help put more into perspective. Bills finish drives off away from the goal line more than any other team, atleast I thought they did. 

[mannc]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

But what about the frequency of running plays down there?  Running plays are generally more successful than pass plays inside the 5-yard line.  My sense is that the Bills rarely tried to run the ball down there, other than Josh.

[Behindenemylines]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

Yes but when teams aren’t worried about it in general it artificially makes the stats look better. If defenses had focused on the run at the GL I highly doubt our run game would be better. 
 

I believe balance in our offense will open up both Allen and the run game significantly at the GL.

 

This year we have the horses to do that. 

[PBF81]

The proper way to analyze this would be to put each of those plays on a video reel and find out why the situation exists. 

 

Only then can one know why, and by percentages, those plays broke down.  

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

Lots of Goalline running is by JA though. Its different when you have a big back like we do now + Josh Allen back there that poses huge threats. When you have a big threat in the backfield with Allen, its going to force more in the middle of the field leaving chip passes outside more free. I think Kincaid will help here lots too because other then Knox we have not had a big bodied WR out there.

 

I think the dynamics of this fix itself. 

[thenorthremembers]

Not going to put too much thought into goal-line EPA when they had a top 5 scoring offense.   Splitting hairs.    New season, new hairs to split.

[DieHardBillsFan]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

That's because the Bills running was like a trick play, and the key word there was "threat"

[finn]

16 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

It's not that Mahomes had more time, just that he got his throw off more quickly. Think about it: you can't count the seconds he would have had after he throws the ball, right? What we're looking at is guys not being open for Allen, him not seeing them, him not pulling the trigger when they are open, interceptions, dropped passes, and so on.

 

My impression, FWIW, is that Mahomes plays in a far superior scheme. How many times did we see him simply toss the ball to an uncovered Kelse at the two-yard line? 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I also think we need to acknowledge that one bad year doesn’t re-write the book on him. Allen has previously been elite in the red zone and goal line. 

[Billy Claude]

For folks who want to laid most of the blame on Dorsey, the Bills were 32rd on 3rd and 1 conversions in 2021 also (56% -- 13 out of 23 vs a league average of 71%). Their struggles on short yardage at the goal-line last season is just a reflection of their short yardage troubles in 2021.

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Billy Claude

[colin]

trash blocking, zero power or receiving threat at rb, and short of knox, who is more athletic and explosive than set your watch to him consistent, look who was running routes.  diggs, who's awesome but not tall and was doubled teams always, mckenzie who is awful, and the ghost of bease and brown.  no other TEs in the room, no power back, adn no interior blocking.

 

watching the back up qb run a 12+ play drive vs the jags in the playoffs for KC to get a nice short TD tells me everything i need to know about where our issues on offense are.

[HIT BY SPIKES]

32 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

For folks who want to laid most of the blame on Dorsey, the Bills were 32rd on 3rd and 1 conversions in 2021 also (56% -- 13 out of 23 vs a league average of 71%). Their struggles on short yardage at the goal-line last season is just a reflection of their short yardage troubles in 2021.

 

 

Our OL has been below average for a few years now.

 

Josh Allen just makes them look better than they are.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just looking at his splits inside 10 yards.  They really aren't that good, they were better in 2021 though with a more seasoned coordinator.

 

2022 -

Passing: 18/40 (40%) - 14 TDs and 3 interceptions.  He also was sacked once.  

Running: 15 carries for 23 yards and 5 TDs (likely some sneaks here so yards really don't matter much). 
 

2021 - 

Passing: 29/56 (52%) - 18 TDs and 1 interception. 

Running: 17 carries for 52 yards and 5 TDs.

 

I'd say play design definitely needs to improve based on those numbers.  I expect comp% to be lower, but 40 is straight up bad.  

 

Herbert was 27/49 for 12 and 1.  He was sacked twice and didn't do anything on the ground.  

Lawrence was 20/36 for 15 and 2.  He had 5 more on the ground.  

 

Basically, too many turnovers and inability or unwillingness to run the ball.  Running the ball well inside 10 will fix a lot of the issues here.  A bit more motion helps.  Rub routes.  Getting a little tricky too.  Teams are going to play zone here until you force them to stop playing zone.  

[Billy Claude]

The Bills finished first in red zone conversion rate in 2021 and 9th in 2022.

 

The problem was that in both years I was more confident that the Bills would score a touchdown on a 3rd down from the 5 yard line rather than a 3rd down from the two yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished close to last on converting 3rd and short to TDs in both years. 

 

The difference in the red-zone conversion rate wasn't due to being better in short yardage situations in 2021, it was that there were fewer red-zone turnovers in 2021.

 

I think @Einstein led a long discussion of how bad they were shortage yardage situations at during the 2021 season.

 

Just wanted to say that it isn't all Dorsey or Saffold's fault.  The Bills were bad on third and short in 2021 also.

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

The Bills finished first in red zone conversion rate in 2021 and 9th in 2022.

 

The problem was that in both years I was more confident that the Bills would score a touchdown on a 3rd down from the 5 yard line rather than a 3rd down from the two yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished close to last on converting 3rd and short to TDs in both years. 

 

The difference in the red-zone conversion rate wasn't due to being better in short yardage situations in 2021, it was that there were fewer red-zone turnovers in 2021.

 

I think @Einstein led a long discussion of how bad they were shortage yardage situations at during the 2021 season.

 

Just wanted to say that it isn't all Dorsey or Saffold's fault.  The Bills were bad on third and short in 2021 also.

 

 

They aren't bad in short yardage. They are bad only on the goal line. Warren Sharp made that a point in the article.

[Dopey]

On 8/16/2023 at 5:55 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

To an extent, even when he does have the time, do you think it's him knowing the lines track record and expecting to have to get out of dodge, before that first read.

 

Regardless it is a scheme problem to me. If Josh isn't confident he'll be clean till his first read opens, seems like they need to set up something quicker developing.

If he has time and is actually thinking that way, it’s on him. No excuses. Even for Josh. 
I had a feeling this would turn into a thread of excuses for Josh.

[Dopey]

15 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Not going to put too much thought into goal-line EPA when they had a top 5 scoring offense.   Splitting hairs.    New season, new hairs to split.

Not to nitpick, but we were 2nd in points per game last year to KC, and I agree with you. Totally. 
Offense wasn’t an issue until the Cincy playoff loss and goal line epa or whatever had nothing to do with the loss. it could be as simple as the op said: this is something Josh needs to focus/work on. 

[90sBills]

On 8/16/2023 at 6:28 PM, balln said:

I’ve been it saying for the past 3 years. 
 

josh isn’t consistently pin point accurate w short , intermediate and timing type throws

 

he just isn’t. Mahommes and burrow are insanely better at these than him. Fans need to wake up

 

and it’s ok. He’s still really good. I just hope he levels up. 

Completely agree with this take. This is something he needs to improve on to take this offense to another level.

[tomur67]

C'mon guys, you all know that people can use statistics to find something to spark a controversy.  They probably have the statistics on how teams did from the 20 yard line, the 15 , the 10 and every other yard line.  I'm sure they would find the results different in from each different yard line.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 8/16/2023 at 4:52 PM, Araiza Curse said:

This is the first year I signed up for the all 22 film. I plan on doing extensive breakdowns during the year and especially during the next offseason. 

Should Dorsey be checking McDermott's 'in' basket to intercept resumes of potential rivals?

On 8/16/2023 at 7:24 PM, Charles Romes said:

Can’t we blame this on Saffold?

Some will try.  😁

[DC Greg]

I’m really hoping that Harris and Murray can pound in some goal line TDs for 1-3 yards. That would be nice, for a change. That was not something Singletary was ever capable of. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

10 minutes ago, DC Greg said:

I’m really hoping that Harris and Murray can pound in some goal line TDs for 1-3 yards. That would be nice, for a change. That was not something Singletary was ever capable of. 

 

Did you see running holes made by our OL that Singletary did not see?

[BuffaloBill]

On 8/16/2023 at 4:41 PM, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

 

 

But how much of this “good” is reliant on josh as a runner?  

 

It’s clear the Bills have a problem here.