Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

He's an inconsistent pass catcher. Some games he's on, others he's off. Thus he's 50%. It's not just stats, it's visible when you watch the games. His route tree is limited, his foot work is slow & he can't separate easily, which is why he has to go way down field. He can't separate & get the needed shorter intermediate catches with any kind of consistency. We can & should upgrade from him @ WR2.

 

 

Nah, his hips are stiff and he's not as good laterally as vertically. And guys who are consistently thrown so many longer routes do have lower catch percentages. Long passes are simply harder to connect on, for QBs and receivers both. It's a big risk / big reward deal.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Thurman#1

[purple haze]

On 2/20/2023 at 6:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

Give me a higher, more consistent catch rate across from Diggs and Diggs will give us even more big plays.

Edited February 22, 2023 by purple haze

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

Bit of a disappointment? He was arguably the biggest disappointment on the entire team this year performance-wise unless you give those honors to Saffold.  

 

 

 

If so, that says more about the expectations than about performance.

 

That game against the Chiefs in 2021 got people's expectations unreasonably high. Me too. He had a good year. 

[Mango]

On 2/20/2023 at 10:12 AM, The Jokeman said:

Davis ranked 33rd last year in receiving yards despite his drop issues, one could argue that's the best #2 WR in the league but of course he's not as some top guys on other teams didn't rank in the top 32. Davis isn't an elite #2 but would call him above average. 

The most pressing needs for the Bills offense are OL, Slot receiver, Play calling, QB decision making. 
 

Spending a lot of resources upgrading Gabe Davis seems like a waste if you could spend thenupgrading the above. (I know you can’t upgrade play calling or QB decision making with money or draft picks)

[Straight Hucklebuck]

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah, his hips are stiff and he's not as good laterally as vertically. And guys who are consistently thrown so many longer routes do have lower catch percentages. Long passes are simply harder to connect on, for QBs and receivers both. It's a big risk / big reward deal.

I agree on his stiffness, the upright running style. 

 

But at 6'2" he is the tallest WR on the Bills, and you just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis. 

 

Yes, I know he ripped the ball out of Levi Wallace's hands, but he doesn't pluck the ball away from defenders in a crowd, fight through small spaces on the field. 

 

He really only seems to be able to catch footballs when he can get a runway and have green grass in front of him. 

 

Or its the comeback route off the go. 

 

He makes the Patriots catch, that's 50 yards and a TD, and the 70-yard Jets heave and he's at 1000 yards and 8 TDs on the year. 

 

To me, there is room to squeeze more production out of that skill set if he (like Josh) hits the weight room and gets into better shape. 

[Mango]

On 2/20/2023 at 4:19 PM, HappyDays said:

The problem in this discussion is that there are two different conversations going on. Is Davis a decent #2 WR? Yes. Is he a good enough #2 WR on a championship caliber offense? No. Look at how many weapons the other final contenders had. If we want to level up our offense we need much better than Davis as the 2nd most targeted player on offense. How is this even a debate?

I don’t think Davis is a world beater. I do think he’s fine. A guy you upgrade when the opportunity presents itself but you dot. Spend a lot of time, money, or resources doing so. Even if you are championship team. 
 

I disagree with the bolded. Davis is fine. Having a WR 1a/1b isn’t the norm for any QB post rookie contract. It just isn’t. Mahomes didn’t have a WR with more than 4TD receptions, but Davis isn’t good enough? 
 

Fix the OL. Fix the play calling. Get Allen seeing the field better. And we’ll stop caring about Gabe Davis so much. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

I don’t think Davis is a world beater. I do think he’s fine. A guy you upgrade when the opportunity presents itself but you dot. Spend a lot of time, money, or resources doing so. Even if you are championship team. 
 

I disagree with the bolded. Davis is fine. Having a WR 1a/1b isn’t the norm for any QB post rookie contract. It just isn’t. Mahomes didn’t have a WR with more than 4TD receptions, but Davis isn’t good enough? 
 

Fix the OL. Fix the play calling. Get Allen seeing the field better. And we’ll stop caring about Gabe Davis so much. 

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by HappyDays

[Mango]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

 

 

My stance is to run the direction of your first paragraph. 

I am fine with "easily upgradable". Fine go do it. But the guys you want to target are $15-20M+ per year. If we need two $20M WR we don't have a WR problem, we have a QB problem. I don't believe we have a QB problem. If we can get Mike Evans on an $8-12M deal go for it. Otherwise I have no interest in mortgaging 2024 and 2025 cap space for a WR when both OL and DL suck. 

Wholeheartedly agree that we need a starting slot WR and a change in offensive philosophy. As a guy who watches the A22 every week I am unsure if offensive philosophy is the the total issue. My dumb fan eyes have been telling me the same thing Kurt Warner did at the end of the year, and that is that Allen needs to make the QB position easier and see what the defense is giving him. There is certainly a ton of blame on OC, but Allen deserves a bit as well. 

My plan wouldn't be to just run it back. We have seen over and over again that teams who spread the ball out to tons of WR, RB, TE, etc have pretty solid post season success. And in that environment Gabe Davis is just fine as a cog in the machine. Upgrade OL and the slot. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I agree on his stiffness, the upright running style. 

 

But at 6'2" he is the tallest WR on the Bills, and you just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis. 

 

Yes, I know he ripped the ball out of Levi Wallace's hands, but he doesn't pluck the ball away from defenders in a crowd, fight through small spaces on the field. 

 

He really only seems to be able to catch footballs when he can get a runway and have green grass in front of him. 

 

Or its the comeback route off the go. 

 

He makes the Patriots catch, that's 50 yards and a TD, and the 70-yard Jets heave and he's at 1000 yards and 8 TDs on the year. 

 

To me, there is room to squeeze more production out of that skill set if he (like Josh) hits the weight room and gets into better shape. 

 

 

Not buying that. "You just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis"? Simply not true.

 

He had that terrific contested catch on the 2nd TD against Pittsburgh, the 62 yard TD. Fitzpatrick was in great position and actually pins Davis' arm to his side. Davis has a step and a half on the CB but Fitz is running straight vertical while Davis has to go a bit sideways. Minkah pins his arm to his side so Davis catches it one-handed and then Fitzpatrick gets two hands on it and starts to rip it away ... and Davis will have absolutely none of it and simply muscles it away from him. That was as contested as *****. A beautiful TD.

 

Or the TD with 0:23 left in the second quarter in the 2021 Pittsburgh game. The guy is leaning right on him, but Allen throws it to him anyway, and Davis just muscles his way to the ball for the TD.

 

Or the one at 6:20 in the 3rd quarter of the first Jets game in 2021. 

 

Or the 2021 Monday night game against the Pats at 2:03 in the first quarter. Just a slant over the middle and a sweet pass from Allen, the CB gets a hand in and almost knocks it out, contesting it, and Davis just holds on and brings it in. He will not let it be ripped out.

 

I'm just going through a highlights film and finding them, ah, another one with a guy right on him and Davis coming back to the ball, reaching out and just using his length to get to it and hold it as the guy tries to rake it out against the Panthers at 7:58 in the 1st.

 

Oh, yeah, that Chargers catch in 2020 at 10:10 in the 4th. Just simply out-leaps the CB.

 

Last game of the season in his rookie year, against the Fins, at 14:26 in the 4th. Davis has like four yards on the CB, but Allen's throw forces him to slow way up, the CB catches up to him but Davis simply gets in his way out-reaches him.

 

Look, it simply isn't true, and I didn't even get halfway through that 2021 highlights film. If anything it says more about what you're choosing to remember.

 

You're right that he's open a lot. But that's not a bad thing. It's quite good, in fact.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

 

 

The Chiefs didn't find a much better #2. They got rid of their #1 and brought in a bunch of "easily upgradeable" #2s and #3s. They got Smith-Schuster for about $3M.

[Success]

Everyone is kind of pining for Hodgins & wondering how we let him get away - but in no universe is Hodgins a better receiver than Davis.  

 

Davis underperformed this past season. But he can still be a great #2 for us, imo.  The skills are there.  He had more of a case of the dropsies in '22 - it was most of the season, so we have to see if that becomes a recurring pattern. But he has a ton of talent.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not buying that. "You just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis"? Simply not true.

 

He had that terrific contested catch on the 2nd TD against Pittsburgh, the 62 yard TD. Fitzpatrick was in great position and actually pins Davis' arm to his side. Davis has a step and a half on the CB but Fitz is running straight vertical while Davis has to go a bit sideways. Minkah pins his arm to his side so Davis catches it one-handed and then Fitzpatrick gets two hands on it and starts to rip it away ... and Davis will have absolutely none of it and simply muscles it away from him. That was as contested as *****. A beautiful TD.

 

Or the TD with 0:23 left in the second quarter in the 2021 Pittsburgh game. The guy is leaning right on him, but Allen throws it to him anyway, and Davis just muscles his way to the ball for the TD.

 

Or the one at 6:20 in the 3rd quarter of the first Jets game in 2021. 

 

Or the 2021 Monday night game against the Pats at 2:03 in the first quarter. Just a slant over the middle and a sweet pass from Allen, the CB gets a hand in and almost knocks it out, contesting it, and Davis just holds on and brings it in. He will not let it be ripped out.

 

I'm just going through a highlights film and finding them, ah, another one with a guy right on him and Davis coming back to the ball, reaching out and just using his length to get to it and hold it as the guy tries to rake it out against the Panthers at 7:58 in the 1st.

 

Oh, yeah, that Chargers catch in 2020 at 10:10 in the 4th. Just simply out-leaps the CB.

 

Last game of the season in his rookie year, against the Fins, at 14:26 in the 4th. Davis has like four yards on the CB, but Allen's throw forces him to slow way up, the CB catches up to him but Davis simply gets in his way out-reaches him.

 

Look, it simply isn't true, and I didn't even get halfway through that 2021 highlights film. If anything it says more about what you're choosing to remember.

 

You're right that he's open a lot. But that's not a bad thing. It's quite good, in fact.

Yeah you’re right, my bad, he’s Mossing guys constantly out there.

[Simon Says]

Wide  receivers have become  more and more important. Therefore, exorbitantly priced. Thats why I prefer the Bills add one in the draft rather than free agency. You are kind  of comparing apples to oranges here,as well.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Herb Nightly

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The Chiefs didn't find a much better #2. They got rid of their #1 and brought in a bunch of "easily upgradeable" #2s and #3s. They got Smith-Schuster for about $3M.

 

They had two #1s in Kelce and Hill. They got rid of one. But that came after a concerted effort to build an elite OL after they got trounced in Super Bowl LV. They gave an $80 million contract to Joe Thuney, they traded a 1st for Orlando Brown, they hit on two picks in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. And most importantly they have one of the greatest offensive minds of all time at the helm. I don't personally expect Dorsey to suddenly become Andy Reid or for us to develop an elite OL in one offseason. I also don't expect Davis to be better than JuJu Smith-Schuster. So, the easiest and most realistic avenue of improvement for our offense this offseason is upgrading Davis.

 

The Chiefs also aren't the only example of a championship caliber team. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown. The 49ers traded for McCaffrey. The Bengals drafted Chase just one year after drafting Tee Higgins. Adding offensive weapons to an already talented offense is a proven method of making a team championship caliber. In the case of the Bengals they did it even with an average at best OL.

[colin]

This is a great thread.  the numbers have been discussed to death, and i think it's clear davis has a problem w catching.

 

from watching him play, the thing that stands out to me the most is on the left hand side of the field, either catching over the right shoulder (which several times meant if he catches it clean he's getting 6, instead he drops it) or coming back to the ball, he's just awful.  i mean, the number of drops where the ball went through his hands into his chest would be crazy for a good highschool player.

 

he (or the scheme and other players) are doing well to get open in those positions, but he's dropping perfect balls way to often in the exact same way.  i hope he can figure this out and simply improve his ability in those spots.  coulda been a TD at the jets, and a TD vs the Bengals.  if he hits those, it woulda been home field throughout, and there's a shot that we get back in that bengals game and have a sick sick comeback at home.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I like cutting McKenzie. 

 

Don't bring Brown, Beasley, Kumerow or Crowder back. 

 

Sign Olamide Zaccheaus and Darius Slayton. 

 

Then draft a R1 WR. 

 

 

This flushes out the Bottom 3 WRs. 

 

Cheap veterans this team can afford in their mid-20's. 

 

Elite traits WR that buffers Gabe Davis leaving after next year. 

 

 

Regardless, Beane has to have it in his head that one #1 WR is not enough. Diggs is not enough. Stack weapons. 

 

So you flipped the WR room - but 3 play - that doesn't leave a lot of playing time for davis, rookie, shakir.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Diggs plays 75% of snaps and checks himself out of the game. 

 

Davis was 90%+ plus last year, that can come down, we have a baseline on his 2020-2021 seasons. 

 

Ideally the rookie can play outside or inside right away.

 

Leaving full time ownership of the slot up for grabs between Zachheaus and Shakir. 
 

Slayton was phased out of New York but I thought he was productive when on the field, he’d be a great flex WR and bars against injury. 

 

McKenzie being brought back is really a non-starter. He has no role other than slot gadget and just gets in the way of Shakir. 

 

 

[without a drought]

Gabe Davis obviously needs to be more consistent and do a better job holding onto the ball, but besides his impressive you. There is this.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/what-wr-has-the-most-receiving-td-in-the-last-3-years

[Orlando Tim]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:42 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

If so, that says more about the expectations than about performance.

 

That game against the Chiefs in 2021 got people's expectations unreasonably high. Me too. He had a good year. 

I am one of those that got unreasonably high based on end of last year but he is an average #2. I thought he was gonna be a low end #1 but he is more limited than I realized. The Bills appreciate him properly. 

[StHustle]

Some game he played like a #1, others a good #2, and the rest a low end #2. Overall, he ended up being an average #2. He can definitely improve and with his drive we shall see if he takes a jump into more consistent hands. Josh Reed cause to mind as a guy who finally got his hands together after a few bad seasons. 
 

with that said, if we were able to get a DHop or someone else who can bump Gabe to #3, he’d be the best #3 in the league imo. I also think we’d have the best over WR corp in the league cause our #3-5 would be tops in the league and #1-2 is in the conversation.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 minutes ago, StHustle said:

with that said, if we were able to get a DHop or someone else who can bump Gabe to #3, he’d be the best #3 in the league imo. I also think we’d have the best over WR corp in the league cause our #3-5 would be tops in the league and #1-2 is in the conversation.

 

Gabe can be a great #3 or even #4 if we start spreading the ball around more on offense. In order, target count should be something like Diggs, Knox, Shakir and then Gabe. That means Gabe stays at the #2 starting outside WR but he's number 4 by target volume. I think that is where Gabe can thrive. 

[BuffaL0L0k0]

On 2/20/2023 at 8:42 AM, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

Mister Chaos @Chaos, great topic, even if I see it one month after you posted! Thanks for the great insight.

[HOUSE]

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

[ColoradoBills]

On 2/22/2023 at 8:38 AM, Mango said:

 

 

My stance is to run the direction of your first paragraph. 

I am fine with "easily upgradable". Fine go do it. But the guys you want to target are $15-20M+ per year. If we need two $20M WR we don't have a WR problem, we have a QB problem. I don't believe we have a QB problem. If we can get Mike Evans on an $8-12M deal go for it. Otherwise I have no interest in mortgaging 2024 and 2025 cap space for a WR when both OL and DL suck. 

Wholeheartedly agree that we need a starting slot WR and a change in offensive philosophy. As a guy who watches the A22 every week I am unsure if offensive philosophy is the the total issue. My dumb fan eyes have been telling me the same thing Kurt Warner did at the end of the year, and that is that Allen needs to make the QB position easier and see what the defense is giving him. There is certainly a ton of blame on OC, but Allen deserves a bit as well. 

My plan wouldn't be to just run it back. We have seen over and over again that teams who spread the ball out to tons of WR, RB, TE, etc have pretty solid post season success. And in that environment Gabe Davis is just fine as a cog in the machine. Upgrade OL and the slot. 

 

Great post, especially the bolded.  As to Davis, he does have to snag some of the easy drops and get his catch rate up 10-12%.

 

The offense all starts with the QB, that is undebatable.  The Bills have Josh Allen who is elite, but he has tendencies that have to be acknowledged.

While Josh can learn to identify a receiver and get the ball out very quickly, it will never be his norm.  He wants to hold on to the ball and look for

the big play more than the average QB.  He has the skill set to do that, so it makes sense to me to accept what's in his DNA and build accordingly.

 

If you accept that Josh wants to play the QB position that way, it only makes sense to FIRST put an above average OL in front of him.

That doesn't mean it has to be the top 5 in the league, but they should be shooting for at least a top 10.  My eyes tell me that Josh gets pushed

off his anchor spot in the pocket too much.  That alone throws the timing of the plays off and it turns into a mad scramble.  Luckily, Josh is good

at that but it doesn't mean he should play 50% of the game that way.

 

I will stick to my guns and continue to say the problem is not receivers (Gabe or others), it's the OL.  Give Josh that extra tick of the clock

and keep the plays timing on track and watch the offense take off.  I will be disappointed if the Bills don't add another good lineman in the draft.

Add a WR after the OL this April.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

 

He's gone in any case.  If he doesn't improve, it's obvious he'll be gone.  But if he does improve, he'll price himself out of the Bills' range.

[Chicken Boo]

Gabe is alright.  He gets the drops under control and he's a 1,000 yard receiver easy, on less than 70 receptions.  

55 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He's gone in any case.  If he doesn't improve, it's obvious he'll be gone.  But if he does improve, he'll price himself out of the Bills' range.

 

And there lies the crux.  I think he's gone regardless.  If he has a good showing in '23 he's a $15 million + per year guy.  

Edited March 26, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[Mat68]

For a #2 he is middle of the NFL.  He isnt the best but good.  His negative is his catch rate.  I feel like that is due to his usage as a deep threat.   Use him more as a big slot I feel would improve his production.  Doing that would require having someone capable of playing outside. 

[Beck Water]

On 2/20/2023 at 8:51 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

 

Why do you say that?

 

I'm asking as a serious question, because AFAIK there are only 5 or so teams in the NFL that have a tandem of receivers where both have over 1000 yds.  (targets in parens)

Eagles: AJ Brown (145) and Davonta Smith (136)

Bengals: Chase (134) and Higgins (109)
Seahawks: Metcalf (141) and Lockett (117)

Dolphins: Hill (170) and Waddle (117)

Buccaneers: Evans (127) and Goodwin (142)

 

KC had a >1000 yd tandem 2022 in Hill (159, 1239) and Kelce (134, 1125), and came close 2022 with Kelce (152, 1338 yds) and TikTokBoi (101, 933 yds)

 

Other successful offenses have kind of a "Star and Guyz" model, where their #1 gets well over 1000 yds and then 2 or 3 other guys spread it around.

Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb (156) and then Schultz/Brown/Gallup (89/74/74)

Lions with St Brown (146) and then Raymond/Chark/Reynolds (70/64/59)

Vikings with Jefferson (184) and then Thielen/Osborn/Hockinson (107/90/86)

Jaguars with Kirk (133) and then Zay Jones/Engram/Marvin Jones (121/98/81)

 

The Chargers were a "third hand" because their top receiver by targets was their RB Eckeler.  They didn't have a receiver with >1000 yds but instead had 6 WR with more than 500 yds, making them the #3 passing offense for yards. 

 

The teams which have two 1000 yd guys, have 2 guys with over 100 targets and sometimes distribute the targets pretty equally.

 

Teams which are more a "star and guys" offense, seem to have 1 guy getting >150 targets and everyone else <100 (Zay Jones on the Jags and Thielen on the Vikes exceptions where their targets exceeded their yardage production)

 

My point is that there are different ways to run an offense, and I'm not sure what the Bills are really trying to do.  They kind of seemed bi-polar.

 

The Bills have Diggs (154 targets, 1429 yds) then Davis (93/836), Knox (65/517) and McKenzie (65/423). 

If they're trying to follow a "two top guys" model, then sure, Davis didn't get enough targets and he didn't catch enough of them.

 

On the other hand, if they're trying to follow a "Star and Guyz" model where they spread it around, then the problem might not be Davis not having enough targets/yards; the problem might be not getting enough targets and yards out of Knox and McKenzie. 

 

In the latter case, the solution isn't to get a 1B or a better #2 WR to supplant Davis, the solution is to get better production at TE and from #3/#4.

 

Where I say the Bills seemed kind of bipolar, is that I felt Allen consistently tried to force the ball in to Davis when he was double-covered as though determined to make him a #1B or top #2 WR.  But then we'd get to the press conferences and Dorsey would say things about being a better offense when we're spreading the ball around more and Allen would say stuff about needing to find open guys and get them the ball more and spread it around.

 

Anyway @Shaw66, this harkens back to where you said that the Bills don't need a #1B receiver because KC didn't even have a #1A WR and won the Superbowl.  And while I still hold to it that KC, in fact, had a top receiver last year - his position is just TE not WR - in that discussion I don't think I stepped back enough to Ack what may have been your underlying point that there ARE top offenses which don't have a 1A and 1B WR, and that the Eagles, Bengals, Seahawks, Dolphins (and maybe Chiefs) are not the only way to run a top offense.

 

For reference, the top offense on points scored last season were Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars

Top passing offenses were Chiefs, Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins, Vikes, Lions, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Jaguars. 

I omitted the 49ers from the discussion because of their QB situation - too hard to tell what they were trying to do

 

But anyway, half of the top scoring offenses last season didn't have two >1000 yd receivers and same is true of 4/10 top passing offenses.

 

 

 

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

The thing about Gabe that pisses me off is that all off season they showed him working with the JUGS machine trying to improve his craft and still the drops

[KingBoots8]

The Bills don’t. Bills fans do.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, KingBoots8 said:

The Bills don’t. Bills fans do.

This is a whole lot of silliness here. 

 

Do the Fans overreact more to the bad then the good? Absolutely. 

 

BUT!

 

The Criticism of Davis has been more then fair.. There is a reason why they tried bringing 2 old bears back at the end of the season. He was not producing.

[CoudyBills]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:50 AM, JaCrispy said:

It’s not that Gabe doesn’t produce…It’s that, given all his opportunities and his limited skill set, he under produces imo…

There is a legitimate reason for the growing buzz around the lack of skill position players beyond Diggs.

[Dopey]

I think a lot of people here fell for the idea that, based off of his 4td playoff game the year before, he was going to  take it to another level this past season. Don’t understand the negativity. For the price(4yr $3.9m) and being a mid 4th round pick, he’s pretty productive. I also think he’s going to be a lot better this coming season. 

[Mcg]

He had every opportunity to be the 2 he crashed and burned 

[BillsFanForever19]

I don't think the Bills underappreciate Gabe Davis. But the fans most definitely do. 

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't get another outside WR at his level. But that's just out of necessity bc we can't be in a situation like we were last season where he or Diggs get banged up and we're trotting out Jake Kumerow regularly.

 

He underperformed last season. But he also started the year with an Ankle Sprain that he pushed through and could have affected his production and focus.

 

We should add more at the position. But the people who say we should trade him, outright replace him, or that he's completely incapable of being a #2 are misguided to this point.

Edited March 26, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[ngbills]

He is not a #2. He is a 3-5 WR. He can have a big play here and there but is not a reliable every-down target. Too many drops, not enough ability to get open. Send him deep occasionally or a quick post but that's it. 

 

Lok at the number. He has 11 games with 1 or less passes in this offense. He only has a handful of games with even 5 catches. Compare that with Higgins or other teams #2. Its night and day. 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

 

Reminds you of Kelvin Benjamin?  Seriously?  Because there is not one little thing about Gabe Davis that reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin at all.

Well, they're both WR and they're both Black, one plays for the Bills now and one used to play for the Bills once upon a time. 

 

But other than that?

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I think a lot of people here fell for the idea that, based off of his 4td playoff game the year before, he was going to  take it to another level this past season.

 

I think there's some of that.

 

In 2021, Davis played 571 snaps and caught 35 receptions for 549 yds

In 2022, Davis played 926 snaps. Scaling by number of snaps, we'd predict 57 receptions for 890 yds.

 

He actually had 48 receptions for 836 yds, so he fell off from (or under-performed) a scaled expectation by 9 receptions and 54 yds.

 

But I think people were expecting him to improve at least a little bit, not to fall off, and most of all to improve his 7.9% drop % of 2021 instead of having it increase to 9.7%.

 

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I also think he’s going to be a lot better this coming season. 

 

Why?  How is that different from expecting him to take it to the next level last season?

[Don Otreply]

In hind sight, Concerning Gabe Davis, I have settled on the idea that Gabe’s ankle was not right throughout a big portion of the season, combining that with Josh’s elbow injury, and some poor pass decision making on his part, that I will just have to accept it was a down season for both of them, and I will now wait with upbeat anticipation for the draft and preseason to happen, and hope for the very best for an exciting season with a championship victory to cap it off.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I’m to damn tired to be all upset about it anymore, 😂

 

 

[gobills404]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

It’s because fans (I’m guilty of it too) want a loaded WR room, and in a loaded WR room he would be the WR 3/4.