Tua ruled out vs Buffalo, Skylar Thompson expected to start

[BobbyC81]

19 hours ago, Steptide said:

This should be an absolute blood bath (score wise) but I'll still have raging anxiety come Sunday at 1

Not if they play that €#*^¥ pass defense they played against the Pats.  Need to blitz the sh€# out of this youngster.

[ddaryl]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

It'll only be close if the Bills can't stop the run and Miami converts RZ opportunities into points.

 

I don't see it happening.

 

Side note: keep Phillips on the sideline; he can't stop the run with that gimpy arm.

Do the right thing bring up Brandon Bryant

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Tua gave them a punchers chance to win. Without him it’s going be near impossible for them to win this game.

 

The only way they could realistically win is of the Bills have 4+ turnovers, including at least one Dolphins Defensive/ST TD and another inside their own 10 yard line.

 

The Dolphins defense has to play much better than they have shown capable of to win.

 

[ArdmoreRyno]

14 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Go off again??

 

Waddle 

 

4/6 for 102

3/7 for 114 and 1 TD

 

Hill 

 

2/4 for 33

9/13 for 69 and 1 TD

 

Waddle burned us 1 time in each game... they've done a pretty solid job of holding these two in check. Probably the best out of anyone that has played them... and we played them with Tua both times. 

 

Yes and our secondary in those games were nearly 100%, minus Tre in the first game and Hyde in the 2nd. Now? We are pretty banged up... Poyer isn't 100% (even though his 75% is better than most 100's), we lost our leading tackler for the year, Tre isn't the same as he was last year (been burned a lot and had had several flags for holding or PI), Hyde won't play. 

 

If you don't think any QB could simply use the speed of Waddle or Tyreek for a big play, not sure what to tell ya. I've watched way to much football to be completely convinced we won't struggle in the secondary. We win, by 10+ but I feel we are barely hanging on with our defense right now. 

[ArdmoreRyno]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Hyde didn’t play both games. 

 

You're right, I keep forgetting it was against the Titans. 

[Livinginthepast]

Bills need to focus and not take the Fins lightly, no matter that they are facing a 3rd string. They need to get up early and not let them hang around. No more of these opening drives TDs or long drives given up to opposition. This way they can pile on the pressure and force Thompson into bad decisions in desperation as the game wears on. And can we please get out of this game without getting banged up? rest some starters in the 4th and get some backups in there for experience!

[34-78-83]

9 hours ago, sven233 said:

The Fins are going to run it, WR screen it, and slant us to death.  Their QB won't hold the ball.  It's going to be on us to make sure we tackle well which has been a major issue for us all season.  I have never seen a worse tackling team than we have been this season.  That said, if the offense can put up 28+, and get up really early, we should win comfortably.  But this is the NFL.  It's a division opponent that has played dirty at times.  Regardless of the spread, we will need to be on our game if for no other reason than to get out of the game healthy.  Bad things can happen if you are not 100% engaged in the game.  Stay focused on the task at hand and survive and advance.  That is what the Playoffs are all about.

Yes, yes you have... You've seen many worse tackling teams this season alone!

https://www.pff.com/news/sig-stats-tackling-efficiency-by-team

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

57 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Yes and our secondary in those games were nearly 100%, minus Tre in the first game and Hyde in the 2nd. Now? We are pretty banged up... Poyer isn't 100% (even though his 75% is better than most 100's), we lost our leading tackler for the year, Tre isn't the same as he was last year (been burned a lot and had had several flags for holding or PI), Hyde won't play. 

 

If you don't think any QB could simply use the speed of Waddle or Tyreek for a big play, not sure what to tell ya. I've watched way to much football to be completely convinced we won't struggle in the secondary. We win, by 10+ but I feel we are barely hanging on with our defense right now. 

Huh? The secondary was decimated in the first game.  Probably the worst it’s been all year. The only starter that played was taron Johnson.  Poyer and hyde didn’t play at all.  Safeties were Jaquan Johnson/Damar Hamlin.  
 

didn’t have Dane Jackson or Christian benford so the corners were kaiir elam and cam Lewis/Jamarcus Ingram. 
 

our secondary situation is exponentially better than that game right now even if tre is mediocre 

 

miami would’ve gotten absolutely destroyed if our injury situation was a little closer to typical.  We were missing 5 offensive linemen by the second half also.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[blitzboy54]

I don't know why everyone assumes Thompson is going to start. It could very well be Bridgewater. Absolutely nobody has ruled him out. He's not Tua but can make a game competitive

Edited January 12, 2023 by blitzboy54

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, blitzboy54 said:

I don't know why everyone assumes Thompson is going to start. It could very well be Bridgewater. Absolutely nobody has ruled him out. He's not Tua but can make a game competitive

It sounded like he won't be practicing with the 1st team offense because he can't afford any setbacks.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 minutes ago, blitzboy54 said:

I don't know why everyone assumes Thompson is going to start. It could very well be Bridgewater. Absolutely nobody has ruled him out. He's not Tua but can make a game competitive

I really think it’s gonna be bridgewater.  To be fair to people though lol,  all the talking heads have been saying Thompson is ‘expected’ to start which is why they think that.  
 

they don’t want bridgewater to further aggravate his finger so he’s not takin practice reps and they’re gonna see how it feels Sunday 

 

The thing with bridgewater though is he’s a bit of a mismatch to what their offense likes to do.  I don’t think he’s that much worse than tua he just doesn’t have the skills their offense is built around 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really think it’s gonna be bridgewater.  To be fair to people though lol,  all the talking heads have been saying Thompson is ‘expected’ to start which is why they think that.  
 

they don’t want bridgewater to further aggravate his finger so he’s not takin practice reps and they’re gonna see how it feels Sunday 

 

If he doesn't practice with the 1st team offense all week, starting him would be weird. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Bills by a Billion. LETS GO!

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really think it’s gonna be bridgewater.  To be fair to people though lol,  all the talking heads have been saying Thompson is ‘expected’ to start which is why they think that.  
 

they don’t want bridgewater to further aggravate his finger so he’s not takin practice reps and they’re gonna see how it feels Sunday 

 

The thing with bridgewater though is he’s a bit of a mismatch to what their offense likes to do.  I don’t think he’s that much worse than tua he just doesn’t have the skills their offense is built around 

Their chances are about the same with Bridgewater and Thompson. I was giving them 50/50 odds if Tua started. We played two, really tough games against each other this year. With the other two, I have it 80/20 favoring the Bills. Our offense would have to implode for them to win, specifically Josh would have to play his worst game in a long time. I just don't see it. 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Yes and our secondary in those games were nearly 100%, minus Tre in the first game and Hyde in the 2nd. Now? We are pretty banged up... Poyer isn't 100% (even though his 75% is better than most 100's), we lost our leading tackler for the year, Tre isn't the same as he was last year (been burned a lot and had had several flags for holding or PI), Hyde won't play. 

 

If you don't think any QB could simply use the speed of Waddle or Tyreek for a big play, not sure what to tell ya. I've watched way to much football to be completely convinced we won't struggle in the secondary. We win, by 10+ but I feel we are barely hanging on with our defense right now. 

Where in God's name are you getting your information from?

 

Buffalo @ Miami 9/25/2022

 

Injured Players

• Jordan Poyer OUT
• Micah Hyde OUT (Placed on IR that week)
• Dane Jackson OUT
• Tre'Davious White IR 

That's 3/5 of our starting secondary when the season opened up (our base D is Nickel) for anyone who is counting. Or 4/5 if you want to include Tre.

 

Active Players

• Jaquan Johnson and Damar Hamlin played the entire game as our starting safeties (They're both backups)
• Elam and Taron Johnson played 100% of the defensive snaps (Elam was a backup at this point)
• Benford started opposite of Elam but BROKE HIS HAND during the game and Ja'Marcus Ingram who was elevated from the practice squad played 56% of the defensive snaps at CB that game (Benford had been playing the majority of the snaps at CB2 through the first two weeks of the season)
   

If you didn't want to include Tre in the initial exercise because he started the season on the IR, then here we can point to the fact that a 4th member of our starting secondary missed the majority of the game anyway when he broke his hand  

 

Dolphins Receiving Stats

 

• Jaylen Waddle
  • 4 receptions on 6 targets
  • 102 yards receiving (Long of 45)
  • 0 TD
     
• Tyreek Hill
  • 2 receptions on 4 targets
  • 33 yards receiving (Long of 22)
  • 0 TD

 

 

Miami @ Buffalo 12/17/2022

 

This is where things returned closer to normal. 

 

Injured Players

• Micah Hyde IR
• Christian Benford IR

 

Active Players

• Jordan Poyer 100%
• Damar Hamlin 100%
• Taron Johnson 100%
• Tre'Davious White 100%
• Dane Jackson 53%
• Kaiir Elam 47%

 

Dolphins Receiving Stats

 

• Jaylen Waddle
  • 3 receptions on 7 targets 
  • 114 yards receiving (Long of 67)
  • 1 TD
• Tyreek Hill
  • 9 receptions on 13 targets
  • 69 yards receiving (Long of 20)
  • 1 TD

 

Waddle and Hill Combined Performance in 2022

 

 

 

Games in red are where Teddy Bridgewater played the majority of the snaps and games in green are where Skylar Thompson played the majority of the snaps. Oddly enough we're the only AFCE team to play the Dolphins with Tua twice. Also, probably a coincidence, but our performance was better against Hill/Waddle the second time around. 

 

In terms of CTCH% we tied ourselves for the 6th best performance. Patriots and Jets had better weeks, but both times it was without Tua starting. In terms of Y/R we had the 7th best performance (Week 15) and 16th best performance (Week 3). 

 

So yeah... they did fairly well when we were missing 4 members of our starting secondary (Week 3) and then it was weird in Week 15... we got 4 members of our starting secondary back and performed much better.

 

Also want to point out their two worst performances of the year were when Skylar Thompson played the majority of the snaps  

Edited January 12, 2023 by JGMcD2

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

It'll only be close if the Bills can't stop the run and Miami converts RZ opportunities into points.

 

I don't see it happening.

 

Side note: keep Phillips on the sideline; he can't stop the run with that gimpy arm.

Hey Goat,

 

As you know McFrazier usually sacrifice one thing to stop the other.  They have prioritized containing as best as possible Waddle, Hill, and Gesecki.  As a result they sacrificed rushing yards as it’s not that Miami are world beaters in the run game.

 

Now that Tua is out, my guess is they will be a little more balanced as they aren’t going to have the same confidence in Thompson.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

16 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Hey Goat,

 

As you know McFrazier usually sacrifice one thing to stop the other.  They have prioritized containing as best as possible Waddle, Hill, and Gesecki.  As a result they sacrificed rushing yards as it’s not that Miami are world beaters in the run game.

 

Now that Tua is out, my guess is they will be a little more balanced as they aren’t going to have the same confidence in Thompson.

 

 

Yeah, I have no doubt they can stop the run if they want to. Just not with a one-armed DT out there.

[Doc]

Has Bridgewater practiced yet?

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 minutes ago, Amaru523 said:

How does Wilson's performance in that game suggest that Skyler Thompson will throw for 380 yards and 4 td's? 

Based on  the transitive law of guilt by association.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

22 hours ago, zow2 said:

Nobody is afraid of Skylar but hopefully Leslie and the D leave no stone unturned here and take the game more seriously than some fans.

afterall, this is the same unit that gave up 34 completions, 65%, 327 yards in Kenny Pickett’s first start…and outright lost to Zach Wilson which is an embarrassment based on his other games this season.

Come on. The Steelers game was completely out of reach at that point and Buffalo was allowing short completions to run out the clock. They scored 3 points lol 

[jletha]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Has Bridgewater practiced yet?

He was limited.

[John from Riverside]

I was a little shocked that they give in. They gave any information about QBs at all. If I was Miami, I would keep that under the hat, until they absolutely had to.

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I was a little shocked that they give in. They gave any information about QBs at all. If I was Miami, I would keep that under the hat, until they absolutely had to.

 

Guess the practice report would result in questions being asked anyway.

[jletha]

2 hours ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

You're right, I keep forgetting it was against the Titans. 

The first game was unique in that it was Hyde's first game out, Poyer was out, and Jackson was out.

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, jletha said:

The first game was unique in that it was Hyde's first game out, Poyer was out, and Jackson was out.

 

Morse, Oliver and Phillips as well.  And, again, after the Bills played on Monday night.

[jletha]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Morse, Oliver and Phillips as well.  And, again, after the Bills played on Monday night.

yes also this. I only mentioned the secondary because it was more about Hill and Waddle.

[RoyBatty is alive]

20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I was a little shocked that they give in. They gave any information about QBs at all. If I was Miami, I would keep that under the hat, until they absolutely had to.

That doesnt work in today's NFL.  You saw what the point spread has done, HCs have to follow very strict rules and regs on that or you are looking at serious fines/violations.

[zow2]

39 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Come on. The Steelers game was completely out of reach at that point and Buffalo was allowing short completions to run out the clock. They scored 3 points lol 

 

One of their very first drives the Steelers went down the field like a hot knife through butter.  lol, you cmon.

 

To the Bills credit, as they've done in several games this season the D got driven on quite a bit and bailed themselves out with forced turnovers and 4th down stops.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

Their chances are about the same with Bridgewater and Thompson. I was giving them 50/50 odds if Tua started. We played two, really tough games against each other this year. With the other two, I have it 80/20 favoring the Bills. Our offense would have to implode for them to win, specifically Josh would have to play his worst game in a long time. I just don't see it. 

50/50 is quite generous imo.  I don’t think they can really stop us when our offensive line isn’t an absolute tire fire and we we were down multiple offensive line starters against them both meetings.  First matchup we would’ve absolutely destroyed them if our injury situation was more normal. Second matchup was closer than it should’ve been due to an absurd roughing the punter which I doubt would happen again 
 

their defensive scheme has been blitz heavy and man to man focused which is the opposite of how you’d want to play us but maybe they have something special cooked up 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Chicharito]

We have disrupt this kid early. Bump the receivers off the line to mess up quick timing plays. Force them into the run and let our line do the work. 

 

[Nextmanup]

30 minutes ago, Chicharito said:

We have disrupt this kid early. Bump the receivers off the line to mess up quick timing plays. Force them into the run and let our line do the work. 

 

Or else what? He'll carve our defense up like Christmas goose?

 

😳

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

Has Bridgewater practiced yet?

 

He’s listed as limited participation yesterday and today. 

Media said he didn’t throw while they were watching but that could easily be a smokescreen.

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/

 

5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

50/50 is quite generous imo.  I don’t think they can really stop us when our offensive line isn’t an absolute tire fire and we we were down multiple offensive line starters against them both meetings.  First matchup we would’ve absolutely destroyed them if our injury situation was more normal. Second matchup was closer than it should’ve been due to an absurd roughing the punter which I doubt would happen again 
 

their defensive scheme has been blitz heavy and man to man focused which is the opposite of how you’d want to play us but maybe they have something special cooked up 

 

I could be wrong, but I think they played a lot of zone against us in both previous games this season.

 

At least in the first game, they were also pretty creative about disguising their coverage

Edited January 12, 2023 by Beck Water

[mannc]

6 hours ago, jletha said:

He was limited.

Bridgewater is always limited

[DCofNC]

I think you will see the Bills stack the box, take away the short to intermediate routes and dare them to let him throw it over their heads.  Miami is hoping we play the stupid soft zone and let Waddle, Hill, Gesecki all have uncontested 6 yard catches. If we do, they will eventually break a couple tackles and take it to the house on a slant.  Leslie needs to make them beat us, not just let the rookie have a bunch of easy completions to the most dangerous group of skill position players in the league.

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

That doesnt work in today's NFL.  You saw what the point spread has done, HCs have to follow very strict rules and regs on that or you are looking at serious fines/violations.

 

Which of those strict rules and regulations force the HC to declare a player, including a QB, “out” on Wednesday before a game?

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Which of those strict rules and regulations force the HC to declare a player, including a QB, “out” on Wednesday before a game?

 

I believe everyone was specifically talking about the concussion protocol that he would have to go through and hasn't even started.

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I believe everyone was specifically talking about the concussion protocol that he would have to go through and hasn't even started.

Exactly. The rumor is that he is in Stage 3. Stage 4 is non-contact football activity and Stage 5 is a full contact practice. When he wasn’t cleared to move to Stage 4 on Wednesday, there is no way to clear the protocol because the final full-contact practice for a Sunday game is on Thursday.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Exactly. The rumor is that he is in Stage 3. Stage 4 is non-contact football activity and Stage 5 is a full contact practice. When he wasn’t cleared to move to Stage 4 on Wednesday, there is no way to clear the protocol because the final full-contact practice for a Sunday game is on Thursday.

 

That's what I thought.  I asked this in the ShoutBox earlier.

[DrPJax]

3 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I think you will see the Bills stack the box, take away the short to intermediate routes and dare them to let him throw it over their heads.  Miami is hoping we play the stupid soft zone and let Waddle, Hill, Gesecki all have uncontested 6 yard catches. If we do, they will eventually break a couple tackles and take it to the house on a slant.  Leslie needs to make them beat us, not just let the rookie have a bunch of easy completions to the most dangerous group of skill position players in the league.

Really great points.  Watching the second game now on NFL network.  We were down 29-21 at one point until it started to snow. But the thing that was striking was all the mistakes the secondary made.  
 

One play Edmunds is gesturing to poyer to get deep and poyer stood there as Waddell ran right past him and Tua just dropped it in to a WIDE open Waddell for an easy 6. 
On another play , Tre tried to jam Hill , missed completely with hand check / fighting and Hill ran easily past Tre. To top it off , Hamlin again took a terrible angle helping Tre ( not piling on Hamlin when he is down , happy he will be fine obviously, but man he took terrible angles or just got beaten on many plays this year in coverage) and Hill was wide open for an easy pass any NFL  qb should be able to hit. 
There were several other passes the Fins receivers  took short balls or won with 50/50 balls and got great yac as our defensive backfield  did not look good. The run game wasn’t overwhelming and with Mostert with a fractured thumb , I don’t think they will be able to run at all in this game, so defending those slants and not missing tackles is crucial in this first playoff game.  Elam actually looked ok with good anticipation the second game and we prob need his speed out there. 
 
     If we play that soft D like you described , even a third string qb can hit short passes  , wide open receivers and these guys have shown they can burn this defensive backfield taking short balls and going the distance.   We had issues both times we played the fins and the only difference will be Tua not being there. We blew coverages , lost one on ones , got beat for contested balls so if they are not careful the fins could hang around again until the 4 th and then the Bills could feel the pressure and Josh might feel like he has to be super Josh and we have seen that result in poor choices at times.    I am hoping Frazier plays tighter press coverage to mess up their timing , yet keeps two safeties deep if the corners miss jamming at the line.  
 

     The other thing I wouldn’t do is leave a single  safety alone and bring one up closer to the line.  We miss  too many tackles and we have not shown we can have one guy deep like we could with hyde playing  and make up ground or take good angles to help the corners.  They have to keep things in front of them and not give up huge yardage or scoring  plays like they have in both prior games. .  I think Frazier and the d is the key to this first game and these guys have dangerous weapons who can and have beat our coverages. I think Elam should be in with his speed this game and they can’t get caught in formations where Tre has no help.

      I just hope they don’t play down to the fins as they have  a good d ,  can hang around, esp if Josh try’s to do too much and fumbles  or turns  the ball over in the red zone. Most fans are predicting a blowout, but it’s a divisional opponent for a third game, and this is not the same old fins as they have a clever coach that is .500 against Mcd.  Tackling that speed and having to defend with at least one inexperienced safety against this Fins team is not an easy blowout imo. We should win, but so far in the prior two games we have made bad coverage mistakes.  Hopefully the coaching staff steps it up for playoff time and has these guys prepped well.  They have some confidence coming to Buffalo as they were up by 8 late in the game here; hopefully our O starts fast and doesn’t allow them to stay close.