Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Big Turk]

34 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

My annoyance isn't that people are picking the Bengals to win. They are a good team. 

 

It's a combination of two things: One, the sheer volume of people taking the Bengals over the Bills. Two, the reasons I keep hearing are problems with the Bills that the Bengals also are dealing with to an extent or have it worse, and yet those issues are somehow backbreaking killers for the Bills and no big deal for the Bengals.

 This illustrates my point nicely. I have heard time and time again about how insane the receiving group the Bengals have. That Chase, Higgins and Boyd are the most dangerous trio in the NFL, moreso than Hill and Waddle. At the same time, I keep hearing about how Josh is a one man show with no one but Diggs pulling their weight. And look, the Bills have done more with seemingly less.

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Big Turk

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Process said:

3.7-1 on Allen having a decent game and bills winning is silly

where was that

 

[Process]

13 hours ago, Process said:

Allen's passing prop lines are absurdly low for this game, wow. His numbers haven't been good lately but one thing that has always been consistent is that he shows up in prime time. 

 

Over under passing yards 240.5

Over 1.5 TDs at -120

 

??????

3.7-1 on Allen having a decent game and bills winning is silly

[Since1981]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That Chase, Higgins and Boyd are the most dangerous trio in the NFL, moreso than Hill and Waddle. At the same time, I keep hearing about how Josh is a one man show with no one but Diggs pulling their weight. And look, the Bills have done more with seemingly less

No disrespect to our WRs. But top 3 catchers are statistically similar Cinci Miami Buff. But, BUF stats are only close for #2,#3, #4 because of Mr Allen. There’s a reason we even talk about Beasley/Brown. I can’t imagine how good Allen would look with Cinci Miami WRs

Edited December 30, 2022 by Since1981

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

Burrow crushes the blitz and has a 110 passer rating against it.

 

I think this has to be a rush 4, disguise in the secondary type of game

I've been reading that it's better to rush 3. Idk though we have a hard enough time getting to the passer with 4.  We know there won't be many blitzes at all with the style D that the Bills play. I think it'll actually be much of the same we've seen all year. Bills will get gashed for the first quarter until they adjust. I'm just hoping that the offense is at its peak to play in a shoot out. That's just how I feel. I'm not saying I'm right. Go Bills 

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

where was that

 

Better question is how did you reply to his post before he posted it?  Are you from the future?

[Motorin']

50 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

 

I don't think that makes sense. Burrow has attempted 30 more passes than Allen this year. 

 

 

[fergie's ire]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I don't think that makes sense. Burrow has attempted 30 more passes than Allen this year. 

 

 

Chase missed 4 games.  That probably had a lot to do with it.  Yes, Davis also missed time, too...but missing a number one for four games really cuts into the number of snaps.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

I’d be more interested in target comparisons. Snaps just tell me players were on the field when the ball was snapped. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Well if you believe in bulletin board material the Bengals (and National Media) are giving you paragraphs of it. 
 

They know they’ve arrived and done it all.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

5 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I've been reading that it's better to rush 3. Idk though we have a hard enough time getting to the passer with 4.  We know there won't be many blitzes at all with the style D that the Bills play. I think it'll actually be much of the same we've seen all year. Bills will get gashed for the first quarter until they adjust. I'm just hoping that the offense is at its peak to play in a shoot out. That's just how I feel. I'm not saying I'm right. Go Bills 

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Better question is how did you reply to his post before he posted it?  Are you from the future?

Yes, and I'm here to tell you the Bills won the Super Bowl.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Yes, and I'm here to tell you the Bills won the Super Bowl.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

Do we all realize that Burrow does throw interceptions too right?

 

That his offense isn’t scoring 35 ppg right?

 

That he eats a boatload of sacks?

 

We act like he’s something we’ve never seen.

 

If we can’t get it done, then somebody else will eat that garbage Bengals OLine and spike that arrogant QB.

 

Think Philly or San Fran (who the Bengals haven’t played) are scared?

 

Treating the Bengals like they’re the 1989 49ers.

[Goin Breakdown]

6 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

Yeah. I'd like him to as well. I know a lot had been made of our DBs and I get it, but they really do need to step

up. I'm not the guy who complains about coverage sacks lol. 
just reading you post...it's crazy how many great QBs are in the league right now. Just glad we have one of them. 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Not a damned thing.

 

I just enjoy seeing *****-talkers get their just desserts.

 

Everyone does. But do it like diggs and roast them on the field. You can even let them know after. No need to try to hurt a player. That stuff can escalate and I don’t want another injury on our side. Honestly I am hoping apple talks smack to diggs.

 

On the 3 man rush and pressure, I think (and others have said) this is a game where coverage sets up pass rush. They don’t want to run and burrow gets the ball out quicker than anyone than Brady. With their line being a bit banged up you need to get burrow off his first read to allow the rush to get home.
 

Check out some of Anthony Prohaskas from cover 1 film review from Wednesday. He shows how TB did great in the first half to get Burrow to have to process the coverage which let the rush get home. 

[eball]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

That stat is a little misleading to play devils advocate- Chase missed i believe 3-4 games, Higgins has missed mulitple games and Boyd has missed 1-2 games and has been in and out of the lineup.

 

Their weapons are stacked and arguably are the best in the league, but... Josh> Burrow 

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

Perception and the way that the media chooses to spin narratives are such interesting things.

The perception of this game seems to be that the Bengals are riding a big wave of momentum, having won 7 straight, being called by many "the hottest team in football", and boasting one of the best -- if not THE best -- collections of offensive weapons in the league.

Meanwhile, the Bills are riding a 6 game winning streak of their own. Devin Singletary has more rushing yards than Joe Mixon on 29 less carries, and the Bills top three pass-catchers have 13 less catches for 67 less yards and 2 MORE touchdowns than the Bengals top three pass catchers. Yet the Bills are considered to have a very lacking collection of offensive weapons.

Perception. Narratives. Strange.

[Ray Stonada]

22 minutes ago, Logic said:

Perception and the way that the media chooses to spin narratives are such interesting things.

The perception of this game seems to be that the Bengals are riding a big wave of momentum, having won 7 straight, being called by many "the hottest team in football", and boasting one of the best -- if not THE best -- collections of offensive weapons in the league.

Meanwhile, the Bills are riding a 6 game winning streak of their own. Devin Singletary has more rushing yards than Joe Mixon on 29 less carries, and the Bills top three pass-catchers have 13 less catches for 67 less yards and 2 MORE touchdowns than the Bengals top three pass catchers. Yet the Bills are considered to have a very lacking collection of offensive weapons.

Perception. Narratives. Strange.

Thank you. My feeling is we come to play and win this game by two scores. 

[Big Turk]

27 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

That stat is a little misleading to play devils advocate- Chase missed i believe 3-4 games, Higgins has missed mulitple games and Boyd has missed 1-2 games and has been in and out of the lineup.

 

Their weapons are stacked and arguably are the best in the league, but... Josh> Burrow 

 

I pointed out that the Bengals have put those numbers up in a combined roughly 250ish less snaps than the Bills trio has, which is the equivalent of about 4 full games worth of snaps.

[finn]

1 hour ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I've been reading that it's better to rush 3. Idk though we have a hard enough time getting to the passer with 4.  We know there won't be many blitzes at all with the style D that the Bills play. I think it'll actually be much of the same we've seen all year. Bills will get gashed for the first quarter until they adjust. I'm just hoping that the offense is at its peak to play in a shoot out. That's just how I feel. I'm not saying I'm right. Go Bills 

That does seem to be the pattern. Early in the season, the Bills were so confident of scoring and stopping the other team from scoring that they would opt to take the ball first when they could. Now, the offense seems to stall early, and the defense, as you say, gets gashed before they figure things out. Still gets the job done, but it's not nearly as gratifying to watch. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 I think we can pass on Cincy come Monday night. Outside of 3 games, the Bengals haven't played any other good passing teams this year, #24, #13, #15, #2, #28, #16, #31, #29, #22, #24, #30, #1, #22, #4, #21. That's a whole lot of bad passing offenses and 1 of their 3 games against a top 10 passing team, Tua got concussed in the 1st half. 

 

 Knox could be a big factor, he's been used more in the pass offense of late and has a 20+ yard catch & a td in each of his last 3 games. Plus in 7 or 8(can't remember) games this year a TE finished 1st or 2nd in receiving vs Cincy. 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

[Rich Stadium Original]

Is it just me, or is anybody else tired of hearing how Burrow is on par with Allen or Mahommes?  Granted, his numbers are as good as Mahommes or Allen, but I dont think he's near the quarterback.  He is a VERY accurate passer and good decision maker, but lets not forget he throws to three very good receivers..who usually are wide open are going up and grabbing a contested throws..many yards after the catch.

  All the highlights I see of Burrow, he always seems to be throwing from a clean pocket with very little pressure--almost like he playing catch. I think I read he is the 4th least pressured quarterback in the league.

  Does anybody really think he is going to make that Mahommes run around for 35 yards and flip it upside down behind his back for the completion...or the Allen running to his right being chased leaping, and as he is going out of bounds throwing it across his body halfway across the field??..I think not!!..

  That being said, can the Bills front four put enough pressure on him to make him feel uncomfortable?..really wish Von Miller were around....

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 From nfl.com. Hey someone actually picked us to win!!😊

 

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/week-17-nfl-game-picks-2022-nfl-season

Quote

MONDAY, JAN. 2

Buffalo Bills

12-3

28-26

Cincinnati Bengals

11-4

WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)

WHEN: 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes

MONEYLINE: Bills: -115 | Bengals: -105

SPREAD: Bills -1 | O/U: 49.5

 

No disrespect to the Power Rankings, but I believe the top three teams in the NFL are in the AFC. One of them -- the loser of this game -- will likely have to win on the road against the other two just to make the Super Bowl. That makes this game potentially huge, especially if the Bills want to avoid a rematch in Cincinnati in the Divisional Round.

 

It’s a concern for Cincinnati that Buffalo is the better running team here, but the Bengals have just the receivers and indefatigable quarterback needed to hurt the Bills where they are weakest: cornerback. Ultimately, I trust Buffalo's defense, especially its pass rush, a bit more to pull off the win.

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Is it just me, or is anybody else tired of hearing how Burrow is on par with Allen or Mahommes?  Granted, his numbers are as good as Mahommes or Allen, but I dont think he's near the quarterback.  He is a VERY accurate passer and good decision maker, but lets not forget he throws to three very good receivers..who usually are wide open are going up and grabbing a contested throws..many yards after the catch.

  All the highlights I see of Burrow, he always seems to be throwing from a clean pocket with very little pressure--almost like he playing catch. I think I read he is the 4th least pressured quarterback in the league.

  Does anybody really think he is going to make that Mahommes run around for 35 yards and flip it upside down behind his back for the completion...or the Allen running to his right being chased leaping, and as he is going out of bounds throwing it across his body halfway across the field??..I think not!!..

  That being said, can the Bills front four put enough pressure on him to make him feel uncomfortable?..really wish Von Miller were around....

 

The issue I see is that the Bengals might have the best skill players in the NFL as a whole and yet the Bills are ahead of them offensively in pretty much every metric other than pass yards(which likely is due to weather conditions playing a large factor lately).  The Bengals go cold for long stretches and always seem to leave you feeling they should be better than they actually are for the talent they have on offense. The difference? Josh Allen.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Big Turk

[MJS]

On 12/28/2022 at 9:11 AM, BuffaloBaumer said:

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

Bigger than the 4 superbowls the Bills went to? I don't think that's the case. I'd also put a bunch of playoff games above this one.

 

Maybe you could make the case for the biggest regular season game.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

21 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Is it just me, or is anybody else tired of hearing how Burrow is on par with Allen or Mahommes?  Granted, his numbers are as good as Mahommes or Allen, but I dont think he's near the quarterback.  He is a VERY accurate passer and good decision maker, but lets not forget he throws to three very good receivers..who usually are wide open are going up and grabbing a contested throws..many yards after the catch.

  All the highlights I see of Burrow, he always seems to be throwing from a clean pocket with very little pressure--almost like he playing catch. I think I read he is the 4th least pressured quarterback in the league.

  Does anybody really think he is going to make that Mahommes run around for 35 yards and flip it upside down behind his back for the completion...or the Allen running to his right being chased leaping, and as he is going out of bounds throwing it across his body halfway across the field??..I think not!!..

  That being said, can the Bills front four put enough pressure on him to make him feel uncomfortable?..really wish Von Miller were around....

The media knee jerks to the hot new story.

 

Skip Bayless is now on the Burrow is the best QB in the league train (even though earlier In the year he was all Lamar Jackson). 
 

I don’t know what the other old / washed up hosts like Dan Patrick, Colin Cowherd, Mike Greenberg think.

 

Two weeks ago it was Herbert>Allen, then he stopped throwing TDs so he’s down now. 

 

Then Jalen Hurts was better than anyone, until the shoulder.

 

Last year it was Kyler Murray is who you want to build your franchise around. 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

Win or lose, I would take Josh over this guy any day of the week. Josh seems to be such a modest, unassuming person while Burrow sounds like such a cocky ass. 

 

LOL you do know that one reason the OL hustles at high speed to wherever Josh just got tackled is that he's apparently a World-Champion Junk Talker and they need to protect him from himself?

 

Josh has a different public persona than Joe Burrow, they're different people who had a different path - Burrow through two Big Time programs and a national championship, one through zero scholarship offers out of high school, one Division 1 offer after JC, and the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl as his biggest stage.  It's not like Burrow is all "cocky ass" either:

 

https://www.bengals.com/video/joe-burrow-bengals-bills-week-17-press-conference

 

About a minute in, he says he's hung out quite a bit with Josh Allen, they're friends. Says it's no secret why Josh is so good, he's fun to watch.  He runs around and makes plays, makes throws nobody else can make, he's an exciting player, a great player, and it's going to be fun to go against him.  He's asked "what do you like about him, why do you hang around with him?"  He says (Allen's) just fun to be around, he's an outgoing guy, fun to hang out with.  Asked "when did that relationship for you guys start?" says "we both train with the same guy in the off season, so that started when I was training pre draft"  He comes across as straightforward and down to earth, and maybe I mis-read Allen's response when he was asked about Burrow. [I also might not be mistaken in that there might be a bunch of competitive smack-talk out there between them, too - I'm sure they're both ultra-competitive guys]

 

Anyway, he didn't come across in that interview as particularly cocky much less sounding like a cocky ass.

[Pokebball]

50 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 From nfl.com. Hey someone actually picked us to win!!😊

 

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/week-17-nfl-game-picks-2022-nfl-season

 

 

 

I'm seeing about 50/50. I get it.

[IBTG81]

Ugh. Poyer didn’t practice again. 

[NewEra]

53 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Is it just me, or is anybody else tired of hearing how Burrow is on par with Allen or Mahommes?  Granted, his numbers are as good as Mahommes or Allen, but I dont think he's near the quarterback.  He is a VERY accurate passer and good decision maker, but lets not forget he throws to three very good receivers..who usually are wide open are going up and grabbing a contested throws..many yards after the catch.

  All the highlights I see of Burrow, he always seems to be throwing from a clean pocket with very little pressure--almost like he playing catch. I think I read he is the 4th least pressured quarterback in the league.

  Does anybody really think he is going to make that Mahommes run around for 35 yards and flip it upside down behind his back for the completion...or the Allen running to his right being chased leaping, and as he is going out of bounds throwing it across his body halfway across the field??..I think not!!..

  That being said, can the Bills front four put enough pressure on him to make him feel uncomfortable?..really wish Von Miller were around....

I’m tired of Bills fans being so insecure and Karen-y.  “The media thinks Joe Burrow is as good as Josh Allen.  Wah.”  Seriously, grow a pair bro.  Don’t be so fragile.  

[Beck Water]

37 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Is it just me, or is anybody else tired of hearing how Burrow is on par with Allen or Mahommes?  Granted, his numbers are as good as Mahommes or Allen, but I dont think he's near the quarterback.  He is a VERY accurate passer and good decision maker, but lets not forget he throws to three very good receivers..who usually are wide open are going up and grabbing a contested throws..many yards after the catch.

  All the highlights I see of Burrow, he always seems to be throwing from a clean pocket with very little pressure--almost like he playing catch. I think I read he is the 4th least pressured quarterback in the league.

  Does anybody really think he is going to make that Mahommes run around for 35 yards and flip it upside down behind his back for the completion...or the Allen running to his right being chased leaping, and as he is going out of bounds throwing it across his body halfway across the field??..I think not!!..

  That being said, can the Bills front four put enough pressure on him to make him feel uncomfortable?..really wish Von Miller were around....

 

I think the Bengals feel the opposite - I think they feel they're tired of hearing about Buffalo and KC and Allen and Mahomes.  They feel, "hey - who dey team went to the Superbowl and were AFC Champs last season?  This team that's who - Bengals!"  They feel they're leading the league in pass Yards/Attempt with 8.7.  Their QB has the best passer rating in the AFC, #2 overall, the next AFC team is #10 and the Bills are way down there at #16 - this despite being 3rd in the league for sacks and 2nd for sack %.  They would say yeah, Burrows has thrown 14 picks, Mahomes has only thrown 1 fewer at 13 and Allen has thrown 2 more at 16.

As far as being unpressured, part of that is playing comfortably within the offensive system and taking what the defense gives him, something both Allen and Mahomes fail to do consistently.  It leads to them getting the big plays, but it also leads to them laying some eggs at times.  Coaches like Dick Vermeil used to think that a QB who could run would fail to develop as a passer because he'd bail and run.  While no one could doubt Allen or Mahomes abilities as passers, it's also a point that they'll bail from the pocket and seek the big play at times when they could take the checkdown and move the chains.  It's a different style of QB.

 

Anyway, I personally think you can make a case for him being on par with them, based on performance - and his numbers being better in some regards.  He out-performed Mahomes in the AFCCG and he out-performed Mahomes in their win earlier this season.  If "you are what your record says you are", then the Bengals are right up with the Bills and KC as the Class of the AFC and a game on Monday to prove who's the Big Dawg.

 

It's up to the Bills to prove they're the better team by out-executing on Monday.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, IBTG81 said:

Ugh. Poyer didn’t practice again. 

He’s Poyer.  He’ll play.

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, finn said:

That does seem to be the pattern. Early in the season, the Bills were so confident of scoring and stopping the other team from scoring that they would opt to take the ball first when they could. Now, the offense seems to stall early, and the defense, as you say, gets gashed before they figure things out. Still gets the job done, but it's not nearly as gratifying to watch. 

Very well said. Gives me heart attacks. 

[muppy]

IMO this game, like most any NFL contest will be decided by these 3 things with 3 being as important as anything else

 

1. Who commits the most turnovers

 

2. Who commits the most "called" penalties* OR is the recipient of any gift calls. Lord I hope it isn't THIS that turns the game

 

3. Which side will dominate in the trenches both offensively and defensively

 

a 4th could be the play of special teams both in our favor and they against us.

 

DOMINATE  on 3

 

1..2...3...GO BILLS

[Steptide]

38 minutes ago, IBTG81 said:

Ugh. Poyer didn’t practice again. 

Bet he plays still. They know he's gonna have to carry the secondary, so they gave him extra rest 😉

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, finn said:

That does seem to be the pattern. Early in the season, the Bills were so confident of scoring and stopping the other team from scoring that they would opt to take the ball first when they could. Now, the offense seems to stall early, and the defense, as you say, gets gashed before they figure things out. Still gets the job done, but it's not nearly as gratifying to watch. 

 

I believe if you were to go back and look, there was no "opting" involved. 

 

Out of the first 9 games the Bills played, we lost the coin toss in 8 out of 9 cases. 

In the one case we won (Ravens), we did opt to take the ball 1st, I think because the rain was forecast to become worse as the game went on

Josh threw a pick from deep in our own territory and the Ravens took over and scored a TD in a couple of plays

 

But in 8 out of the first 9 games, "confident" had nothing to do with it, the other team won the flip and got to pick.

 

 

[Scott7975]