Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Agreed. They will double Diggs and put the focus on him. Davis is due for a big game too. Let’s hope we get the Gabe from the KC playoff game. 

 

So I think I put this upthread already. 

 

The regular Greg Cosell preview of upcoming opponents is always interesting and especially so this week.  Greg Cosell, for those unfamiliar, started out reviewing actual film on reels and has gotten to the level of respect that off-season, teams will actually solicit his review of various draft prospects.  A person may agree or disagree, but he's not your average bloviating talking head.

 

Anyway he talks about how the Bengals D is not a high % man team, but they do like to play man on third downs, in Dime, where they bring in Trey Flowers as their dime back and match him up with TE. 

 

When asked what's one thing that the Bengals D doesn't do well that he thinks the Bills could exploit, Cosell says that he doesn't think the Bengals are great at one thing on D, he thinks overall as a D they're really solid.  Then he goes on to suggest that there could be opportunities for Dawson Knox in this game.

 

One thing that I don't think is too uncommon in the NFL, is that various comments from players suggest to me that the Bengals have focused on maybe the last 2-3 games the Bills have played in their analysis of an opponent they haven't played since 2019.  Which is fine, there's only so much prep that can be done - but for the Bills, the last 3 games are a bit of anomaly for different reasons - the wind and cold in Chicago, the cold and anticipated snow and wind vs. Miami which did finally show up late, the snow/rain just around freezing point for the Jets. 

 

If they're watching the Jets game to see how the Jets shut us down, my take is really that the Bills shut themselves down most of that game with passes that could have been caught but weren't - Diggs, Knox, McKenzie, Singletary, maybe Davis too?  We had what, 5 scored drops for that game? and more that were catchable.

 

So we'll see. 

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The Chiefs were about to put the game away until Kelce fumbled it and allowed Bengals to come back

True, although games featuring two quality teams have a way of coming down to a key play or two. This MNF matchup will probably be no different. 

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I'd definitely be overwhelmed with uncontrollable joyful bliss if that happens.....

 

But to say this and only basing it off how Bengals performed against Bucs and Pats (and Won) is a bit short sighted imo. And a Bengals team riding a 7 game win streak to add...

 

Anything can happen, but this is a game that I can only expect a knock down drag out battle going into their house with the importance of what's on the line here. I just have a hard time understanding those who say, " Bills will win big and won't be close". 

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Yeah I'm a little surprised with they way couple of their statements are worded. I mean Matt M. and T. Edmunds are one of the top LBers this season. Especially Milano. But hey, I certainly have no problems with them making this reading material for the Bills to see

 

I was thinking about this.  I looked up the last time the Bills played the Bengals.  We had many of the same guys on defense this year, that we had then - Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Milano, Edmunds, Siran Neal, Tre' White, Poyer, even Dean Marlowe!

 

With the exception of Tre' White, who is working his way back from injury, then backups Neal and Marlowe who are a "push", I think they are significantly developed as players.  Edmunds and Milano and Oliver, no question; Lawson and Phillips seem like more disciplined, focused guys.  But it may linger in Mixon's mind like "oh yeah, last time I faced them I could do this and that and the other".

 

But sure, Mixon, poke the bear.  And he could be "on" to something; to some extent, without Hyde and Von Miller and with Tre White not 100%, the Bills are a bit of an "either or" defense where they will decide what they most want to limit when facing a good team, and focus there.  That's how the Packers and the Dolphins were, IMO, able to rack up a pretty absurd number of rush yards against us. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Beck Water

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

Couldn’t agree more. I happen to think Buffalo will take the Bengals to the woodshed on Monday night. But I’m a Bills fan, not a professional commentator. There isn’t much balanced mature stuff anymore. Coverage from national journalists these days just screams “Look at me!”

 

When I see the term "professional commentator" what comes to my mind turns to the poster child of foolishness, Skip Bayless.

He is the antithesis of what was once "the sportswriter".  I need less talk about people's opinions and more about the game itself.

 

I'll take a Steve Sabol over the Skips of the world, all day long.

 

I was hesitant in writing my earlier post but I'm glad I did.  It's good to know I'm not the only one feeling this way.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

 

Well I do hope this will be the case, also I can't see how their recent statements end up benefiting them. 

[Johnnycage46]

I never really had much of an opinion on the Bengals (mostly irrelevant to me).  But from all their borderline trash talking and their arrogant QB...I hope we smash them and demoralize them.

[MJS]

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

[Beck Water]

Mina Kines weighs in:

 

 

Quoted here by Bengals Insiders Plus Russ Heltman:

 

Quote

At the top of her list lies the Bills' secondary against the Bengals elite wide receiver unit.
 

"One of the reasons I love this game is not just because it's two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football but also two of the best defensive coaches in football in Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati, and Leslie Frazier in Buffalo," Kimes said on the show. "Frazier's got his work cut out for him because I think the biggest discrepancy talent-wise in this game is those Bengals' wide receivers against a Bills' cornerback group that's been uneven, it's been a revolving door."

Kimes noted All-Pro caliber corner Tredavious White is still trying to find his normal level of play as he works back from the torn ACL he suffered last season.

She anticipates a lot of the same split-safety looks that defenses have tried slowing Joe Burrow down with all season.
 

"Job number one is to not let the Bengals beat you outside," Kimes continued. "You want to force them to attack you to between the numbers where the Bills have the third-best defense in football, EPA per play, so I suspect we're going to see a lot of zone, a lot of split safety. Saw the Patriots have success with some of those looks in the second half against Cincinnati. They're going to try to make Joe Burrow work underneath, run the ball, and hopefully make some mistakes, but it's a very tough matchup because Bengals wide receivers are very, very hard to defend."

 

Who then goes on to say "The Bills' defensive strength lies in its spine rather than the outside, with linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer playing pretty well this season."

 

O.K.  Playing Pretty Well.  Good to Know.

 

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Mina Kines weighs in:

 

 

Quoted here by Bengals Insiders Plus Russ Heltman:

 

 

Who then goes on to say "The Bills' defensive strength lies in its spine rather than the outside, with linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer playing pretty well this season."

 

O.K.  Playing Pretty Well.  Good to Know.

 

The biggest talent discrepancy in this game is at QB. We have Josh Allen and they have Joe Burrow. That will be the difference.

[Beck Water]

Just now, MJS said:

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

 

Yeah, this concerns me. 

 

Last week when Poyer was on injury report with a knee, he was DNP Tues and Weds then FP on Thurs. and had no game designation.

So definite downgrade this week to DNP Thurs and Fri and limited today, Questionable for the game.

 

I also don't like Stefon Diggs missing 2 of 3 practices - he normally has a vet rest the final practice, but this week of course missing Thurs with "illness".

 

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

Unfortunately him and many others have also this season. This has been about the most injuries for Bills this season in a while.

[Bimmer323i]

I heard Chris Simms say today that there’s no chance will be able to run the ball against the Bungles… I tend to disagree… If we keep chipping away at it and not abandon the run game early I could definitely see Cook making one guy miss and take one to the house….. Nobodies catching him at full speed in the open field…

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Rockinon said:

That is not a very good plan for Cincy in my opinion. Josh can still sling the rock and Diggs has been quiet the last couple of weeks.  That plus their pass defense is suspect. They will need to drop more defenders into coverage, so having someone spy Josh makes it more difficult for them.

 

As for the running game, not many teams run out of a spread offense. It not only spreads the offense. It spreads the defense too. The Bills will test it and their recent success is reason for optimism. I expect Cincy to almost exclusively keep two deep safeties, so I expect some RB screens in this game as well. Another weapon will be Knox. He'll stay in to block most plays but will bump and then slip into a route too. It will be a balanced attack. A mixture of pass, run and quick dump offs. I do believe Josh will take a couple of deep shots too. Cincy's defense will have their hands full much more than Buffalo's D. This is just an opinion of course. Cincy can get hot. Still, just don't think they are on the same level. They need a better defense. That's the big difference between these teams.

 

I think if Cinci only rushes 3 then Josh will tear them up on the ground himself. I dont think they can play us like they play the Chiefs.

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, this concerns me. 

 

Last week when Poyer was on injury report with a knee, he was DNP Tues and Weds then FP on Thurs. and had no game designation.

So definite downgrade this week to DNP Thurs and Fri and limited today, Questionable for the game.

 

I also don't like Stefon Diggs missing 2 of 3 practices - he normally has a vet rest the final practice, but this week of course missing Thurs with "illness".

 

 

Diggs should be just fine as usual. You mentioned he gets vet rest the final practice anyway, so missing Thursday would basically be routine anyways right?

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, CaliBills said:

 

 

Are the Bengals trying to just give the Bills defense bulletin board material or what?"

 

Im glad we arent the Ravens defense.  They suck this year.  Goes to show that people in the NFL live off name too.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Bimmer323i said:

I heard Chris Simms say today that there’s no chance will be able to run the ball against the Bungles… I tend to disagree… If we keep chipping away at it and not abandon the run game early I could definitely see Cook making one guy miss and take one to the house….. Nobodies catching him at full speed in the open field…

 

I think Bengals will be a bit better against the run, but Bills can certainly do it. Not sure why he woukld say "no chance" 

[newcam2012]

51 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Some good stuff here. Cincy may very well try to establish a run game too, if for no other reason to keep the Buffalo offense off the field. Buffalo's defensive tackles are fairly healthy now though. And our linebackers are good too. Poyer's health is a concern but I think the Bills are simply playing it safe with him.  I think Cincy will find that they will have to lean on the pass game perhaps after finding the run game is not working? Then find out the Buffalo pass defense is better than they thought too. I really hope they do try to get their run game going.

 

As for your 3 bullet points, those are keys in any football game. Lets hope the Bills protect the football and minimize penalties. Not sure how many big plays there will be. Both teams are going to do there best to limit them. As for coaching, I have been thoroughly impressed with Buffalo's in game adjustments. Especially on defense.

 

As for Buffalo's receiving options, I don't know if you've noticed, but Josh has been passing to RBs more lately. Have had some success there too. It's still going to be a balance between run, pass and screens because there is no way Cincy is going to leave a deep WR in single coverage. Josh has been finding all season long that this is how defenses are playing him. He has found ways to keep the offense clicking even though the deep stuff hasn't been there. I still believe the big difference between these two teams is defense. Cincy is going to have a hard time keeping Josh Allen and company in check and not the way around.

Great insight. 

[newcam2012]

43 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

The Bengals hopefully lose this game. I hardly think it will be because of a Bengal letdown. Arguably ghis is the biggest game of the season. No way no how will either team not be focused and prepared. Execution is a whole other issue.

[BillsSbSoon]

Keep talking bengals…this team quietly sees bulletin board material and takes note like the pats did for years

Edited December 31, 2022 by BillsSbSoon

[major]

4 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Keep talking bengals…this team quietly sees bulletin board material and takes note like the pats did for years

The bengals have lost their minds!! No one in today’s nfl talks this kind of trash (for a reason). We are

picked to win the Super Bowl because we are that good. Time for us to run up the score on these pretenders 

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

So I think I put this upthread already. 

 

The regular Greg Cosell preview of upcoming opponents is always interesting and especially so this week.  Greg Cosell, for those unfamiliar, started out reviewing actual film on reels and has gotten to the level of respect that off-season, teams will actually solicit his review of various draft prospects.  A person may agree or disagree, but he's not your average bloviating talking head.

 

Anyway he talks about how the Bengals D is not a high % man team, but they do like to play man on third downs, in Dime, where they bring in Trey Flowers as their dime back and match him up with TE. 

 

When asked what's one thing that the Bengals D doesn't do well that he thinks the Bills could exploit, Cosell says that he doesn't think the Bengals are great at one thing on D, he thinks overall as a D they're really solid.  Then he goes on to suggest that there could be opportunities for Dawson Knox in this game.

 

One thing that I don't think is too uncommon in the NFL, is that various comments from players suggest to me that the Bengals have focused on maybe the last 2-3 games the Bills have played in their analysis of an opponent they haven't played since 2019.  Which is fine, there's only so much prep that can be done - but for the Bills, the last 3 games are a bit of anomaly for different reasons - the wind and cold in Chicago, the cold and anticipated snow and wind vs. Miami which did finally show up late, the snow/rain just around freezing point for the Jets. 

 

If they're watching the Jets game to see how the Jets shut us down, my take is really that the Bills shut themselves down most of that game with passes that could have been caught but weren't - Diggs, Knox, McKenzie, Singletary, maybe Davis too?  We had what, 5 scored drops for that game? and more that were catchable.

 

So we'll see. 

Did you read the article in the Athletic about Cincy’s D Cord? The article starts w a quote from Anarumo about Josh’s last pass against the Jets in the first game. Made me think they are studying what the Jets did, since the Jets statistically had the best success against the Bills.

I do agree that the Bills and Josh made some mistakes they wish they could have back. 

[Drew21PA]

28 minutes ago, Bimmer323i said:

I heard Chris Simms say today that there’s no chance will be able to run the ball against the Bungles… I tend to disagree… If we keep chipping away at it and not abandon the run game early I could definitely see Cook making one guy miss and take one to the house….. Nobodies catching him at full speed in the open field…

What makes Simms feel this way is beyond me

 

I guess i can refer to the last two games - they gave up HUGE chunks and 250 to Mac Jones ?
100 yards to Bourne as the Pats leader in receptions?

Scroll down a week 312 to a STRUGGLING tom Brady - 3tds - 2 massive giveaways - stupid.  

Ill say their run defense looks better the last couple weeks, but come on - 

 

Cleveland is a dumpster fire now

Bucs - horrible

Pats - terrible but per above gave up way too much

IDk im glad they are underestimating us - but we are NOT those chumps they have beaten on this little fairytale awesome win streak.

 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

IDk im glad they are underestimating us - but we are NOT those chumps they have beaten on this little fairytale awesome win streak.

 

LOL.  Nice.

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, BRH said:

Narcissistic personalities often have a different view of relationships.  You could be thinking some guy is a real DB and be surprised (and initially feel a little guilty) to hear the same guy say you’re a great dude… because they’re so in love with themselves that they can’t even fathom someone else not feeling the same way about them. 
 

Not saying Burrow has narcissistic tendencies.  But I’ve seen that movie many a time. 

 

They’re the same people who refer to “Mahommes” [grinds teeth].

 

You mean people who think that E.J. Epinesa is a bust?

[Governor]

On 12/26/2022 at 2:47 PM, Greg S said:

 

Disagree. The Bills are winless on the road in the playoffs with McDermott, but they are undefeated at home. 

1. Overall, during the McD era, we’ve been a slightly better road team. The team has been much more focused and plays a more complete game on the road. We look great at home maybe twice a year. It’s usually 1 great quarter and 3 terribly sloppy quarters. 

 

2. it’s not the playoffs yet.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Governor

[boyst]

5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

It’s cute that both teams are scheming on defense. But the reality is that this game is going to be a shoot-out. I actually think also despite how stout the interior is of the Bengals D, the Bills will be able to run it well, probably with those pulls and outside zone runs. 
 

I expect a lot of empty-set spreads from both teams too, and both QBs taking chances downfield. Will come down to who makes more plays.

I dont see a shoot out. I either see a heavy loss on our team because of mistakes and lack of separation combined with Allen mistakes. Their DL always gives us a rough time. Always. It won't be any different.

 

But I fully expect our defense to school them. They're not like Miami with timing routes and heavy traffic. They're more like having a few Gabe Daviseseses as well. Boyd is what John Brown was. Nothing more. Nothing less. Chase can't run a full route tree and could be taken out by tough coverage, pressing play and I expect Elam to be a good match. Higgins is as effective for them as Gabe Davis is for us. He can show up or he can flop but consistency he is nop.

 

I'd take the matchup of their RBs ( Mixon and whoever else, Parine?) Against Hamlin, Milano and Settle any day. Just like we don't know their team, and let's be honest - no one needs to know the Bengles or even how to spell that team... They don't know who we are. They will read articles that White is playing poorly and slow - he is. He's also mauling offenders. What this comes down to is keeping them having to go to the air a lot. Keeping them from controlling the clock so we can control it.

 

We finish this game with execution and commitment to the run early. We end the game out running them by over 80 yards - which they'll throw up 80+ to us. I imagine they get 50+ yards running in the first half, but sub 20 in the 4th. They can't stick to the run and short of a busted play it won't matter.

 

Burrow throws 350 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He draws the praises of whoever the lowIQ commentators are to lap up all that kittens milk. Burrow will likely finish the game prettier on paper as a passer than Allen but Allen pulls the W thanks to a defense that bends all night. 

 

Final:

Buffalo 24

Cinci 16

 

Reserved to change until I see our ref team.  Anyone know? 

[BRH]

6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

You mean people who think that E.J. Epinesa is a bust?

I get people misspelling Epenesa.  I don’t get the constant use of “Mahommes.”  I mean, what are people looking at?

 

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

Reserved to change until I see our ref team.  Anyone know? 

Watch it be Carl Cheffers.

 

it’s Shawn Smith

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by BRH

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Did you read the article in the Athletic about Cincy’s D Cord? The article starts w a quote from Anarumo about Josh’s last pass against the Jets in the first game. Made me think they are studying what the Jets did, since the Jets statistically had the best success against the Bills.

I do agree that the Bills and Josh made some mistakes they wish they could have back. 

‘What approach will Anarumo take against Allen? He’s not spilling the game plan, of course, but he didn’t need to say much to explain the conundrum to his unit this week. He turned on the tape.

“The last play of the first Jets game, he throws the ball like 72 yards in the air, hits the guy right in the numbers, on the run,” Anarumo said.

Attention acquired.

“Crazy,” DJ Reader said. “Ball traveled crazy yards in the air to get there and hit the receiver in the face mask. He’s electrifying.”‘

 

Man, the Bengals have a ton of respect for Allen: https://theathletic.com/4044707/2022/12/30/josh-allen-bengals-defense-bills/

Edited December 31, 2022 by dave mcbride

[Scott7975]

Audio sucks in this cover 1 video but there is some good stuff in here

 

 

21 minutes ago, BRH said:

I get people misspelling Epenesa.  I don’t get the constant use of “Mahommes.”  I mean, what are people looking at?

 

Watch it be Carl Cheffers.

 

it’s Shawn Smith

 

 

Personally I like to use "Mahomies."

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

What an issue for Beane next year. Poyer means so much to this team but wiil age, this years injuries and salary cap lead to him leaving? I sure hope not, great leader and player but those variables are a concern. But… one year at a time…

You have to pay the guy. He’s not going to bankrupt us and I’m sure he’s not looking for a super long deal. Find a way to manipulate the bonuses and guaranteed money and get him here at least 2 more years. Or just win the super bowl this year then nobody is going to care lol That would buy us some carefree time

Edited December 31, 2022 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[KCNC]

Joe B going with Bengals via his podcast.  Can't say I really blame him.  Sort of a toss up game so I would give advantage to home team. 

[nbbillsfan]

It’s like the bengals were coached up to disrespect the bills. They think it’ll get in the players heads and take them off their game?

[Protocal69]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Did you read the article in the Athletic about Cincy’s D Cord? The article starts w a quote from Anarumo about Josh’s last pass against the Jets in the first game. Made me think they are studying what the Jets did, since the Jets statistically had the best success against the Bills.

I do agree that the Bills and Josh made some mistakes they wish they could have back. 

Bengals dont have the Jets personnel on defense. Not even close.

[Nineforty]

2 hours ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

It’s Burrow

They forgot an apostrophe. They did not misspell his name. 

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 minute ago, Nineforty said:

They forgot an apostrophe. They did not misspell his name. 

Ok, I’ll trust that’s what “they” meant. Thanks though ….

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, nbbillsfan said:

It’s like the bengals were coached up to disrespect the bills. They think it’ll get in the players heads and take them off their game?

 

It's kinda weird isn't it....I don't recall these types of statements before their game vs KC. And yet they haven't played the Bills in quite a while to know enough about Bills. Certainly not enough to say some of these things....at least that's what I think

[Mat68]

18 minutes ago, nbbillsfan said:

It’s like the bengals were coached up to disrespect the bills. They think it’ll get in the players heads and take them off their game?

I will go deeper.  Boyd and Mixon are the oldest Bengals.  They know that the way they have played wont cut it.  In the mist of a winning streak and national attention they are hoping there teammates step up.

[BillsBy50]

I bet they watched the Packers Bills tape and saw how Jaire talking trash to the offense took them off their game. Any advantage helps in this league and Davis showed he can’t handle the trash talking pressure.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Diggs should be just fine as usual. You mentioned he gets vet rest the final practice anyway, so missing Thursday would basically be routine anyways right?

No, not at all.  Missing practice today (which he did) is routine.  Missing practice Thurs (normal Weds) is missing the offensive install