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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF


Beck Water

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19 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

TBD Mods are the most forgiving of all NFL message boards. @FilthyBeastwould have been banned from Jungle Noise or Finheaven a long time ago.

If by forgiving you mean allowing trolls to endlessly spam the boards than yes they are forgiving. There are quite a few posters who should have been permanently banned a long time ago.

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2 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Okay..lets try again..and this time I wont use such big words and make it simple for you...

You were spring loaded into making a post jumping on someone using cutesy words like "karen-y" all while not understanding or caring what you are reading...just to try to make a point.

In my original post, I was remarking how the media was fawning over Burrow,  and in subsequent paragraphs showed how his talent level doesnt rise to the level of MAHOMMES or Allen..you are disputing this, or is your visual acuity as poor as your reading comprehension??

This was never a love letter about Allen..which is obvious, but you cant see that...grow up and practice reading before you post..(wah)

I read what you wrote. You don’t even know what your wrote- I spelled it out for you and what you said didn’t represent what you said the “gist” was.  It wasn’t even close.  
 

I never said it was a love letter about allen.  It’s a sign of how sensitive you are about the media putting Burrow on the same pedestal as Allen and Mahomes.  Read your post man.  You have no clue what you’re saying.  

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3 minutes ago, Process said:

If by forgiving you mean allowing trolls to endlessly spam the boards than yes they are forgiving. There are quite a few posters who should have been permanently banned a long time ago.

 

I disagree with your proposed handling of this board's trolls. First, we don't know every demerit handed out by this board's moderators; I'd guess they're hard at work behind the scenes. And second, the trolls here are mostly just lame and repetitive, rather than overtly toxic and repugnant, as I've seen on other teams' boards. Better to endure some tiresome trolling than to entirely scrub this forum of all unwelcome pathogens. 

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4 hours ago, f0neguy said:

Folks keep mentioning that the Bengals big three receivers missed about 250 snaps during the season.  Fine,  somebody else took those snaps.  Receiving stats for both teams in total are close.  Miami is putting up bigger numbers and we held them in check.  I think overall the Bills are a better team, they’re relatively healthy. I’m looking forward to a good game.

 

Exactly, the Bengals top 3 have been targeted 298 times, that's 53% of Burrows passes. The Bills top 3 have been targeted 290 times, 54% of Allen's passes. 

 

When Chase was out, Higgins and Boyd got more targets so their production went up.

 

There's not 4 more games of production to be had due to missed snaps. It's not like Burrow was going to have 200 more passes for his wr's to catch.  

 

If Chase didn't get hurt then his numbers would be up and Higgins and Boyd's would be down. 

 

 

 

Edited by Motorin'
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18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well sure, and I made the same quip in answer to a question “how have any teams beaten them?”

 

But @muppy’s key points (turnovers, key penalties, being physically dominant in the trenches) usually do have a strong influence on that “most points” thing

yes, her answers were the means to an end.   I was just being smart.. obviously.  

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33 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Exactly, the Bengals top 3 have been targeted 298 times, that's 53% of Burrows passes. The Bills top 3 have been targeted 290 times, 54% of Allen's passes. 

 

When Chase was out, Higgins and Boyd got more targets so their production went up.

 

There's not 4 more games of production to be had due to missed snaps. It's not like Burrow was going to have 200 more passes for his wr's to catch.  

 

If Chase didn't get hurt than his numbers would be up than Higgins and Boyd would be down. 

 

 

 

I said way up thread that I’d be more interested in target comparisons between the two receiver groups than just snap counts, so thanks for taking the time to find those numbers. Much more pertinent and illuminating. 

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44 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I disagree with your proposed handling of this board's trolls. First, we don't know every demerit handed out by this board's moderators; I'd guess they're hard at work behind the scenes. And second, the trolls here are mostly just lame and repetitive, rather than overtly toxic and repugnant, as I've seen on other teams' boards. Better to endure some tiresome trolling than to entirely scrub this forum of all unwelcome pathogens. 

 

 Imo the mods here more forgiving now than in the past.

 

 

 

 

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Looking through the Bengals winning streak they aren’t exactly beating the doors off teams.

Taking nothing away from them 7 in a row is damn good in the NFL but other then the win over Mahomes the other 6 QBs Mac Jones was probably the best QB they faced.

I will say the Bills are clearly the best defense the Bengals have seen since the Cowboys earlier in the season and their pass rush just abused Joe Burrow.
This game is very very very winnable. Take care of the ball, don’t let Burrow go off, and just leave it to Josh and I think we got this.   

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1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Imo the mods here more forgiving now than in the past.

 

 

 

 

 

I have no basis for confirming or denying this claim. It's relative and we've got no public-facing evidence outside of selective anecdotes (that I'm aware of).

 

I CAN say with confidence that this board is more civil and less toxic than most others I've browsed across the league. 

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Two things that are making me confident
 

The bills are finding their running game again like they did last year towards the end of the season

 

And

 

Josh Allen in prime time Josh Allen goes god mode in prime time 

A few things that make me less confident. 

 

Cinci defense plays Mahomes exceptionally well. Think they will have a similar game plan to stop Allen especially his legs. 

 

Cinci has 3 very good WRs who are all excellent at catching contested balls. Chase is a threat at all times to take it to the house. 

 

Burrows is a big time elite player in big games. He's a winner. 

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1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I have no basis for confirming or denying this claim. It's relative and we've got no public-facing evidence outside of selective anecdotes (that I'm aware of).

 

I CAN say with confidence that this board is more civil and less toxic than most others I've browsed across the league. 

 

 Posters would suddenly disappeared for a week or a month and then they would return only to disappear again never to return. We're we told they had been banned, no, but it was pretty obvious.

 

 The 2nd part of your comment I 100% agree with. In my experience this is easily the most civil when compared to other boards I've been on. By far it has the best conversations/disagreements.👍

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

For the past 2 days I've been trying to figure out how to not be nervous for this game. The only way I came up with is to be passed-out-drunk.

 

I'm 90% sure that's not what I'm doing. 

 

drunk trailer park boys GIF

 

This was my approach for much of the drought, to be honest. But rather than the preemptive psychic security blanket of a black out, I adhered to a drinking regimen/game of doing a shot every time the Bills got scored on and every time they turned the ball over. I was living in Florida in my 20s, and this was a sad, warped way to feel connected to the suffering. There was one loss to the Patriots around 2008 that had me literally half-blind in the 2nd half. 

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44 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

A few things that make me less confident. 

 

Cinci defense plays Mahomes exceptionally well. Think they will have a similar game plan to stop Allen especially his legs. 

 

Cinci has 3 very good WRs who are all excellent at catching contested balls. Chase is a threat at all times to take it to the house. 

 

Burrows is a big time elite player in big games. He's a winner. 

 

Burrow was good in the playoffs & Super Bowl last year, but he wasn't elite by any means. 5 tds and 2 ints in 4 games is very average. His QBR was 51.0, 50.0 is considered the average QBs play. Allen's was north of 95.0

 

 He's 69/101 for 736 yards 5 tds, 2 ints this year in 3 primetime games. A 97.63 QB Rating, almost exactly what his 2021 Playoff QB Rating of 97.3 was. He also added 9 carries for 14 yards, 1.55 ypc, 0 tds.

 

 Meanwhile Allen this year in primetime games is 136/209  1,612 yards, 17 tds, 5 ints in 6 primtime games. A 105.6 QB Rating. He's added another 290 yards & 3 tds on the ground on 45 carries averaging 6.44 ypc.

 

 Allen whether playoffs or primetime has the better NFL stats. But as far as last year's playoffs are concerned Cincy had the better coaching, not that it was hard, by a wide margin. All the stats point to Burrow being good in the NFL in big games, not elite and rarely has he been the reason they won. Allen is the biggest reason the Bills win in big, primetime games.

 

 

 

 

Edited by LOVEMESOMEBILLS
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5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

They're very different QBs.  The piece someone posted of Greg Cosell previewing the game is really good.  Essentially my "take" on what he said is that Burrow is the classic QB that Josh Rosen was alleged to be able to become - the elite processor of what he sees pre and post snap, who knows where to go with the ball and is very accurate at getting it there, but who will be aggressive pushing the ball downfield when he sees the opportunity. 

So Burrow is Brady, and Josh is Rodgers. I can live with that for the next dozen years.

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1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Looking through the Bengals winning streak they aren’t exactly beating the doors off teams.

Taking nothing away from them 7 in a row is damn good in the NFL but other then the win over Mahomes the other 6 QBs Mac Jones was probably the best QB they faced.

I will say the Bills are clearly the best defense the Bengals have seen since the Cowboys earlier in the season and their pass rush just abused Joe Burrow.
This game is very very very winnable. Take care of the ball, don’t let Burrow go off, and just leave it to Josh and I think we got this.   

For the most part I agree with you. However, isn't there a chance that Josh and the Bills offense underpreform? Hear me out before you bash me. The Bengals D has been able to contain Mahomes and the KC offense. They had very good game plans. I'm thinking they will have a similar game plan for Allen. Will it be effective? Besides Diggs, who can you trust at WR?

 

I get the leave it to Josh statement. He certainly can take over a game. However, he's not exactly been a world beater of late. It's been more the running game that's played well. This team seems more balanced and a bit less reliant on Josh than the past. Probably a good thing. 

 

Definelty have to limit the turnovers which has been problematic for the Bills. 

 

Containing Burrow is easier said than done. Burrow almost always comes to play when its a big game. The Bills should be prepared for the best version of Burrow. I hope the Bills D is up for the task. For sure, I'd feel way more confident with a healthy Von and Hyde. That's a moot point though. 

 

Go Bills!!!!

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58 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

For the past 2 days I've been trying to figure out how to not be nervous for this game. The only way I came up with is to be passed-out-drunk.

 

I'm 90% sure that's not what I'm doing. 

 

drunk trailer park boys GIF

This is how I do it
 

Having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs does not guarantee a Super Bowl

 

And

 

Buffalo is a very good road team. We will get at least a home game to start the playoffs and then we take our battle hardened team on the road where I have total confidence in them.

 

That’s if the Bengals end up, not screwing the pooch on Monday

 

This is why you play the way the bills played all year through the tough competition through one of the the hardest schedule through a multitude of injuries

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25 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Burrow was good in the playoffs & Super Bowl last year, but he wasn't elite by any means. 5 tds and 2 ints in 4 games is very average. His QBR was 51.0, 50.0 is considered the average QBs play. Allen's was north of 95.0

 

 He's 69/101 for 736 yards 5 tds, 2 ints this year in 3 primetime games. A 97.63 QB Rating, almost exactly what his 2021 Playoff QB Rating of 97.3 was. He also added 9 carries for 14 yards, 1.55 ypc, 0 tds.

 

 Meanwhile Allen this year in primetime games is 136/209  1,612 yards, 17 tds, 5 ints in 6 primtime games. A 105.6 QB Rating. He's added another 290 yards & 3 tds on the ground on 45 carries averaging 6.44 ypc.

 

 Allen whether playoffs or primetime has the better NFL stats. But as far as last year's playoffs are concerned Cincy had the better coaching, not that it was hard, by a wide margin. All the stats point to Burrow being good in the NFL in big games, not elite and rarely has he been the reason they won. Allen is the biggest reason the Bills win in big, primetime games.

 

 

 

 

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

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3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

Last year there was some moments in the games where the Bengals made it to the Super Bowl, where they easily could’ve lost this year. They have beaten four teams with an above 500 record and the nearly lost last week.
 

If we didn’t have Josh Allen, I would totally be a burrow stanz the guy is good

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4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This is how I do it
 

Having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs does not guarantee a Super Bowl

 

And

 

Buffalo is a very good road team. We will get at least a home game to start the playoffs and then we take our battle hardened team on the road where I have total confidence in them.

 

That’s if the Bengals end up, not screwing the pooch on Monday

 

This is why you play the way the bills played all year through the tough competition through one of the the hardest schedule through a multitude of injuries

If the Bills lose on Monday night it's not like the season is lost or the Super Bowl is not attainable. Many on here will be acting like it's over. It's not! Without a doubt it's much much more difficult to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Nevertheles, I won't stop believing the Bills can win it all. 

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18 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

burrow is elite when he gets good pass protection.  We’ll see if they hold up without la’el collins.  And on the flip side the bills offensive line seems to be full go and the bengals have banged up pass rushers.  Josh looks the best of the three qbs (burrow,Allen,mahomes) when his offensive line is having a rough night imo.     burrow and mahomes are both significantly less effective than josh in those situations 

 

if their backup RT is a dropoff from la’el collins then woof.   they could be in for a long night because collins isn’t even good lol Hakeem adeniji is terrible if thats who they go with 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Exactly, the Bengals top 3 have been targeted 298 times, that's 53% of Burrows passes. The Bills top 3 have been targeted 290 times, 54% of Allen's passes. 

 

When Chase was out, Higgins and Boyd got more targets so their production went up.

 

There's not 4 more games of production to be had due to missed snaps. It's not like Burrow was going to have 200 more passes for his wr's to catch.  

 

If Chase didn't get hurt then his numbers would be up and Higgins and Boyd's would be down. 

 

 

 

Thanks for doing this! Super enlightening. 
 

I need to find the analysis, but I did a breakdown of team’s plays over the last decade or so. It was somewhere between 950 - 1100 plays in a season (believe it was before they started 17 games seasons). Then you’ve gotta divvy that up between run/pass. 
 

Meaning there is a limit on targets… Player X has to lose opportunities in order for Player Y to gain them. I think a lot of fans misunderstand there’s a cap on how many targets are in a given season. 
 

The Bills are just shy of 1,000 plays this year… going to be hard for them to break 1,100. A few teams are over 1,000 now… but won’t go above 1,200 plays. 
 

Rough math on a 55/45 Run/Pass split means there’s around 660 targets available per team. 

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16 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

 

 You need to rewatch the 3 playoff games and the Super Bowl game then, I think the media pundits got in your head. He wasn't elite in the playoffs or Super Bowl, I stand by what I said also and backed it up with facts and stats. Yours is based purely on opinion, despite the facts shown to you prove otherwise.

 

 Heck they shouldn't even have won the WC game. The refs badly blew a play that gave the Bengals a td even though a ref blew the play dead. The rule clearly states that if a ref blows his whistle during a play, the play doesn't count and the ball is to be returned to its original spot and the down is replayed. They don't win without that td counting.

 

 In the end, you have your beliefs, I have mine. Either way no skin off my back.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 You need to rewatch the 3 playoff games and the Super Bowl game then, I think the media pundits got in your head. He wasn't elite in the playoffs or Super Bowl, I stand by what I said also and backed it up with facts and stats. Yours is based purely on opinion, despite the facts shown to you prove otherwise.

 

 Heck they shouldn't even have won the WC game. The refs badly blew a play that gave the Bengals a td even though a ref blew the play dead. The rule clearly states that if a ref blows his whistle during a play, the play doesn't count and the ball is to be returned to its original spot and the down is replayed. They don't win without that td counting.

 

 In the end, you have your beliefs, I have mine. Either way no skin off my back.

 

 

 

 

 

I hear you. I think many football fans get enamored with stats. Sure they are important and give you a general picture and platform to look at. However, stats can be deceiving and often don't tell a accurate picture. Let me use Allen as an example. Look at his college stats. Look at his accuracy. No need to get the numbers because we all know them. Prior stats confirm he was very unlikely to become much more accurate. Would you agree? See my point?

 

Furthermore, show me the stats that show heart, will to win, leadership, and ability to make others better. Mike White this year comes to mind as a good example. So you can refer to the stats all you want. They are what they are.

 

When I see Burrow in a big game I clearly see a man who is elite. I saw it in college, last year, and a bit this year. There is a reason why his name is associated with the likes of Mahomes and Allen. It's not because he's average or very good. It's because he's reached elite status. In short, the stats don't tell the whole picture and that's clear with Burrow. Trust your eyes just as much as your mathematical stats. 

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7 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

burrow is elite when he gets good pass protection.  We’ll see if they hold up without la’el collins.  And on the flip side the bills offensive line seems to be full go and the bengals have banged up pass rushers.  Josh looks the best of the three qbs (burrow,Allen,mahomes) when his offensive line is having a rough night imo.     burrow and mahomes are both significantly less effective than josh in those situations 

 

if their backup RT is a dropoff from la’el collins then woof.   they could be in for a long night because collins isn’t even good lol Hakeem adeniji is terrible if thats who they go with 

The Bengals oline certainly is one the Bills can and hopefully exploit. 

 

Show me a QB who is really good with a very poor oline. Perhaps Allen is the best off the 3 when his oline breaks down. Hard to really know. Mahomes has an excellent oline. Imho, Allen is a better QB than Burrows. If I had to rate the 3 QBs it would be

1. Mahomes 2. Allen and

3. Burrows. 

 

One thing of note that I haven't seen mentioned is the offensive scheme of the Bengals. They play a west coast offense which is based on a very quick release passing game. Burrows gets the ball out very quickly. I believe he's in the top 5 in the NFL. Also, he is very good against the blitz. In short, his quick release may negate some of the effectiveness of the Bills pass rush. The Bills defense will have to successfully try to get Burrows to hold the ball longer. Burrows is quick to throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Perhaps the Bills can clog the middle, have tighter coverage, mix up their defenses looks to confuse Burrow, etc...

 

Chase is very explosive, Higgins is huge and catches contested passes, Boyd is a solid #3, and Nixon and Perine can do damage catching the ball. The Bills defense has a difficult task on Monday night. With that said, they will be ready to play. They have to tackle well this game which hasn't been a strength of the team. 

 

Just my thoughts. Thanks.

Edited by newcam2012
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2 hours ago, BritBill said:

Good Josh we win. Bad Josh we have a chance. Because he’s an ultimate competitive MOFO. 

We have won a ton of games with bad Josh since he came into the league. Because bad Josh just needs to give good Josh that one opportunity. 

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14 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, I had the distinct impression from Josh's demeanor and what he said about conversations/discussions - that Joe Burrow wasn't his favorite person.  This was mixed in of course with a bunch of polite, praiseful stuff about how he really respects Burrow as a player and a person etcetera

 

Then in Burrow's interview, he said he and Josh are friends and he likes to hang out with him because Josh is outgoing and a fun guy to hang with.

 

Bottom line and the readers digest version: I think it is based on personality types.  Burrow is much too Ken barbie senor fashionista than Josh Allen. #17 who is as down to earth extremely gifted just Great guy  Extremely Likeable,

 

  Burrow? meh not so much. Yeah I think he would grate on my nerves too.

 

3 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Bengal’s weakness is supposedly their boundary corners. Diggs is due for a big game. 

RAWR Yes~!~!!!

 

love it

 

GO BILLS

Edited by muppy
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10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well sure, and I made the same quip in answer to a question “how have any teams beaten them?”

 

But @muppy’s key points (turnovers, key penalties, being physically dominant in the trenches) usually do have a strong influence on that “most points” thing

I do tend to post a lot of the obvious SCOREBOARD clearly is the true crux of the matter.  👍

 

GO BILLS!~!~!!!

 

this game can't get here soon enough. 

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10 hours ago, Process said:

If by forgiving you mean allowing trolls to endlessly spam the boards than yes they are forgiving. There are quite a few posters who should have been permanently banned a long time ago.

The ignore feature does work well  here. I don't suffer trolls. But one persons troll is anothers negative opinion  side of any debate.  I dunno. 

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1 minute ago, muppy said:

The ignore feature does work well  here. I don't suffer trolls. But one persons troll is anothers negative opinion  side of any debate.  I dunno. 


One person’s troll can also be another person’s neverending source of entertainment.  Which is, I suspect, the real reason some of these posters have lasted this long. :) 

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9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This was my approach for much of the drought, to be honest. But rather than the preemptive psychic security blanket of a black out, I adhered to a drinking regimen/game of doing a shot every time the Bills got scored on and every time they turned the ball over. I was living in Florida in my 20s, and this was a sad, warped way to feel connected to the suffering. There was one loss to the Patriots around 2008 that had me literally half-blind in the 2nd half. 


That was SB XVII for me.  I drank a beer every time the Cowboys scored.  Good thing Beebe caught Lett. 

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1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

 

When I see Burrow in a big game I clearly see a man who is elite. I saw it in college, last year, and a bit this year. There is a reason why his name is associated with the likes of Mahomes and Allen. It's not because he's average or very good. It's because he's reached elite status. In short, the stats don't tell the whole picture and that's clear with Burrow. Trust your eyes just as much as your mathematical stats. 


Which playoff game has Burrow looked elite in?

 

Im not saying he isn’t a Top 5 QB.  He is. Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert … and then I may go Lawrence at 5. 
 

But I do think there’s a big game drop off from Allen & Mahomes to Burrow.  
 

Burrow’s Bengals rode last season’s playoff run on some luck, what seemed like 50 field goals, and a defense that hit stride at the right time and has figured out a way to confuse Mahomes.  
 

It wasn’t a run due to Burrow.  Most playoff games I watch of Buffalo and KC… the QB is very much on display.  

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