Why oh why are we not establishing a running game ?

[The Frankish Reich]

Line: we hate PFF.  I know, I know ...

... but here it completely agrees with my perceptions:

- Dawkins: good (PFF rating in the low 70s)

- Saffold: awful (PFF rating in the mid-40s). How is it that he's actually been worse than Feliciano was? I wasn't expecting that. But old is old.

- Morse/Bates/Brown/Quessenberry: marginal/replacement level (low 60s)

It's awfully hard to trade for an O lineman and fit him in during the season. But that's kind of the move they needed to at least try to make. There's no in-house help (Boettger? Really?). It was rough watching the Jets get pressure late in the game on every dropback with a pure 4-man rush. We better get used to it and try to scheme around it as best we can.

[97bills]

29 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Why aren't the Chiefs establishing a running game?

They do in there own way with jet sweeps and screens. Then you have a TE who just eats all day on short passes. Buffalo dose none of that. 

[MarkyMannn]

6 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

We have the backs. What gives???

Uh NO we don't

[Ethan in Cleveland]

8 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Why are we put 4 DL and 2 LB for a 6 man box when teams are intent on running on us?

Did you watch the game?  They played a tone of single high safety today with one of the safeties in the box.  

[Dr.Sack]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Did you watch the game?  They played a tone of single high safety today with one of the safeties in the box.  

Pre snap, and lots of bales plus 1 safety or Taron Johnson is not equivalent to a 3rd LB or extra DT in terms of being able to take on blockers when they have run heavy fronts. 

[mrags]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

8 carries for 24 yards.

 

our running backs SUCK.

 

it’s why we continue to draft and trade for them.

 

They.

Are.

Not.

Good.

One of these days maybe people will agree that superior talent at the position is worth drafting in the first round. Probably not with this bunch tho. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Barry Sanders couldn't run behind this OL.  End of question. 

Dang bro lol.  That is about as low a blow as you could go.  Dude literally took on 11 people alone every week 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Gunsgoodtime

[Maine-iac]

16 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

There's not only the eye test but there is tons of advanced metrics out there that sum up what I've said. 

By all means share some of those advanced metrics that say Singletary is the problem with the running game.

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

By all means share some of those advanced metrics that say Singletary is the problem with the running game.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-rb.php

 

 

He doesn't break tackles, he's stopped almost immediately 1v1, he's not slippery enough to win 1v1 coming through the line against safeties and backers and his vision is questionable. (he doesn't create or feel the flow of the line to use cut back lanes)

 

He's a hard worker and well rounded as well as an outstanding teammate, but he isnt a feature back.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by TwistofFate

[B-Large]

Mahommes has 60+ pass attempts and was the Chiefs leading rusher last night... we're not alone.

Edited November 7, 2022 by B-Large

[FieldGeneral]

Many fans believe that Allen can do anything for this team. There are only 60 minutes to a football game. If you don't execute efficiently, you get what happened yesterday. Yes, Allen can run, but he shouldn't be our leading passer and rusher. Teams that are built to win a title can make you pay for focusing on one aspect of an offense or defense. We have fallen in love with Josh's arm, that it's almost tunnel vision at this point. 

[34-78-83]

19 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Line: we hate PFF.  I know, I know ...

... but here it completely agrees with my perceptions:

- Dawkins: good (PFF rating in the low 70s)

- Saffold: awful (PFF rating in the mid-40s). How is it that he's actually been worse than Feliciano was? I wasn't expecting that. But old is old.

- Morse/Bates/Brown/Quessenberry: marginal/replacement level (low 60s)

It's awfully hard to trade for an O lineman and fit him in during the season. But that's kind of the move they needed to at least try to make. There's no in-house help (Boettger? Really?). It was rough watching the Jets get pressure late in the game on every dropback with a pure 4-man rush. We better get used to it and try to scheme around it as best we can.

... And that's where the analysis goes to crap with Morse being listed as replacement level. Dawkins and Morse are both above average, top quarter of the league at their positions guys, in both the run game and the pass game. Morse is an athletic center and better suited in the Pin and Pulls we run in the ground game.

 

Funny irony - if we did run the ball a lot more (which we definitely don't need to do, we just need to be effective enough at it, and also utilize the short passing game more!) then Saffold and Quessenberry's grades would probably look a lot better because those guys are above average run blockers, but (far) below average pass blockers.

 

Stats and grades woot!

[Maine-iac]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-rb.php

 

 

He doesn't break tackles, he's stopped almost immediately 1v1, he's not slippery enough to win 1v1 coming through the line against safeties and backers and his vision is questionable. (he doesn't create or feel the flow of the line to use cut back lanes)

 

He's a hard worker and well rounded as well as an outstanding teammate, but he isnt a feature back.

 

 

Not sure how a link to a fantasy football stat site proves anything.  What exactly proves your point?  Mind you when you bring up a stat from the 8 games this season to say he can't do something there is most likely a career long history of him in fact being able to do it.  It's well documented that he is both good at yards after contact and making tacklers miss.

[In Summary]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:07 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

I'd go with 80% garbage - Dawkins is generally solid.

If Dawkins had prime Incognito next to him he'd be viewed differently. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:19 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

We can’t. Our Oline is pure garbage. 

How is Singletary averaging 4+ ypc? 

 

James Cook is averaging 5.3 ypc?

 

 

[mjd1001]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:18 PM, Returntoglory said:

My God! Putting too much pressure on Allen. We have the backs. What gives???

As others have said, it doesn't work well.  The OL is terrible at run blocking. It was bad run blocking 2 years ago, it was bad last year, its bad this year.  Sure, they may have a game or two where they are decent, but this offense moves the ball best when Allen throws, not when giving the ball to the RB more than half the plays.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 11/6/2022 at 8:51 PM, LeGOATski said:

Why aren't the Chiefs establishing a running game?

Because the Chiefs rotate 5 different WRs behind Kelce:

 

Hardman (4.31 in the 40) 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Marques Valdez-Scandling

Kadarius Toney

Skyy Moore

 

And they have the best QB in football, with a legendary offensive coach.

 

The Bills have a great playmaker at QB, a high-end #1, an all or nothing deep threat, and little else at WR or Tight End. 

[Victory Formation]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:18 PM, Returntoglory said:

My God! Putting too much pressure on Allen. We have the backs. What gives???

Running the football is a team effort, everyone is lazy because Allen is their QB and he bails them out constantly.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Against the Vikings, if the Bills came out and gave James Cook 30 carries, I think he'd have ~150 yards rushing. 

 

I think we'd be fine. 

 

Sal C and all of our media love to push this idea of trust. You have to trust James Cook before you can give him more workload. He's been fine, over 5 yards per carry, catching the ball easily out of the backfield. 

 

I get that we don't want to be a running team, perfectly fine, but we don't stick with the run. We bail immediately and start chucking, and/or just say Josh is 6'5" and he can handle that too. 

 

Singletary and Cook should be getting 20 combined handoffs every game, to take some load off Allen. 

 

I listened to Dorsey talk again about game flow and that's ok, but what was the game flow when you called back to back Zack Moss runs for 1-yard against Miami? 

 

What about game flow when James Cook has 5 carries for 35 yards in rapid succession in Green Bay and then never sees the ball again? 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-rb.php

 

 

He doesn't break tackles, he's stopped almost immediately 1v1, he's not slippery enough to win 1v1 coming through the line against safeties and backers and his vision is questionable. (he doesn't create or feel the flow of the line to use cut back lanes)

 

He's a hard worker and well rounded as well as an outstanding teammate, but he isnt a feature back.

 

 

Literally none of what you just said is true but the exact opposite his problem is that he just doesn’t have another gear

[Alphadawg7]

On 11/6/2022 at 1:25 PM, Gene1973 said:

It's like a broken record. All offseason, most fans knew there needed to be an upgrade to the run game. Beane still hasn't added a runner. Bills had the same issues last season about this time of the year.

 

 

 

Then what happened?  Nothing much, just went on to set NFL playoff scoring records last year and averaged 42 points per game in the playoffs with Allen throwing 9 TD's in 2 games.  

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-rb.php

 

 

He doesn't break tackles, he's stopped almost immediately 1v1, he's not slippery enough to win 1v1 coming through the line against safeties and backers and his vision is questionable. (he doesn't create or feel the flow of the line to use cut back lanes)

 

He's a hard worker and well rounded as well as an outstanding teammate, but he isnt a feature back.

 

 

 

Except none of this accurate other than him being an outstanding teammate.  But everything else you said is incorrect. 

[Putin]

On 11/6/2022 at 3:18 PM, Returntoglory said:

My God! Putting too much pressure on Allen. We have the backs. What gives???

Because $250 million 

[JoshAllin]

They were up 14-3 at one point maybe 21-3  if not for the early pick and I guess they figured establishing a run game was unnecessary at that point

[Returntoglory]

6 hours ago, Putin said:

Because $250 million 

Negative. Does not justify it. He needs run support. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:20 PM, whorlnut said:

Because Beane drafts AJ Epenesa and Carlos Basham instead of a true RB and/or offensive linemen. 

Or WR.

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Then what happened?  Nothing much, just went on to set NFL playoff scoring records last year and averaged 42 points per game in the playoffs with Allen throwing 9 TD's in 2 games.  

And lost over 13 seconds despite dozens of picks and millions in FA dollarse WASTED on the defense.

 

It's an offensive league. Prioritize offense.

[Airseven]

On 11/6/2022 at 2:18 PM, Returntoglory said:

My God! Putting too much pressure on Allen. We have the backs. What gives???

OL stinks.

[FieldGeneral]

2 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

Negative. Does not justify it. He needs run support. 

 

You will never get anything other than this excuse from a lot of Bills fans. Running the ball less than 15 times with your RBs is a recipe for disaster when your QB is struggling. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Except none of this accurate other than him being an outstanding teammate.  But everything else you said is incorrect. 

 

I think isn't a feature back is correct. But that might be semantics about what people consider a feature back. To me the Bills offense doesn't have one, by design. Devin is their "lead back" but not a "feature back". And if they wanted to be a team with a feature back they'd need better than Devin. But for a team who doesn't feature any back he is perfectly fine as a lead back. 

 

If anyone is still following me after all that....  

[All_Pro_Bills]

40 minutes ago, FieldGeneral said:

 

You will never get anything other than this excuse from a lot of Bills fans. Running the ball less than 15 times with your RBs is a recipe for disaster when your QB is struggling. 

The Bills need to show a credible rushing attack in order to dictate the play to the defense and make them respect or at least "think" that the coming play might be a run.  But if you have no legitimate running game or make no attempt to establish one, it just makes life easy for the defense.  The line can focus on rushing the passer and not worry about the run, the linebackers can focus on dropping into their zones or man coverage responsibilities, and in the secondary the safeties can play way off the LOS in coverage while the corners don't have to even think about run support. 

 

A big problem on Sunday was all the Jets defense had to worry about was covering the receivers and pressuring Allen.  Add to that it was a day when the passing game wasn't at its best.  Given the Jets have some good talent on their defense, making your offense by design one-dimensional, made it just way too simple and easy for them.  You couldn't have given them a better approach to defend if they made it up by themselves for you. 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:29 PM, Augie said:

 

I’m not saying Motor is CMC, but Singletary has a higher career average YPC with 4.7 vs 4.6. Pretty large sample size, too. The RB isn’t the problem.  It is the OL. Period. Yes, an upgrade would be great, but I’m not blaming the RB. 

 

It's actually not a good sample size for a supposed lead back.  Devin's never had more than 188 attempts in a season, which is less than 12 carries per game.  

 

He's more Charlie Garner (4.6ypc) than Adrian Peterson (4.6 ypc)

Edited November 8, 2022 by Chicken Boo

[Einstein]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:20 PM, whorlnut said:

Because Beane drafts AJ Epenesa and Carlos Basham instead of a true RB and/or offensive linemen. 

 

Not only that but he is very risk averse of high draft pick trades.

 

Mike Florio made this comment yesterday on his show and I think he is right. He said if the Bills spent the 2nd and 3rd round pick that the Rams did to acquire Von Miller last year, he thinks we make those 1 or 2 defensive stops we needed against the Chiefs in the playoffs and the Bills have a Super Bowl trophy right now.

 

Would you trade James Cook and Terrell Bernard for a SB trophy right now? I would.

 

And that’s nothing against those players. They may end up being very good players. But SB trophies are so hard to come by, that losing a could good players to capture one, is worth it.

 

I know the 49ers gave up a mini-haul for McAffrey, but it may end up being worth it. He is already taking over their offense.

 

Beane values draft picks very highly, and I can respect that when you’re building and maintaining a team, but when you’re *THIS* close to a Super Bowl, I wish he would just say “eff them picks” one year, like the Rams did.

 

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Running the football is a team effort, everyone is lazy because Allen is their QB and he bails them out constantly.

🤣 That is ridiculous. 
 

It’s not so much that the run game isn’t working, it’s that run plays aren’t being called enough. I haven’t had a chance to look for stats on this but it seems to me that we start out with a higher percentage of runs, but then drift to much more passing. 
 

If I was a DC going against a team like that I’d wait for the playcalling to drift to heavy passing and then I’d have my DL pin their ears back and go after the QB.

[Einstein]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:29 PM, Augie said:

I’m not saying Motor is CMC, but Singletary has a higher career average YPC with 4.7 vs 4.6. Pretty large sample size, too. The RB isn’t the problem.  It is the OL. Period. Yes, an upgrade would be great, but I’m not blaming the RB. 

 

Beane drafted a running back, traded for a running back, and made calls about two other high profile running backs (McCaffrey and Kamara). Does that sound like a GM that blames the offensive line and thinks the running backs are completely fine? I don’t think so.

 

He is clearly looking to improve the RB position, and I think you’ll see further proof of that when Singletary is not retained after the season. 

 

When I go back and watch the All-22, I’m often yelling “ahh, there was a huge cutback lane there!”

 

Its less about what Singletary does do, and more about what he misses. You’re right that the offensive line is not good at run blocking, but there are still opportunities every game for cutbacks that he just doesn’t take.

 

I don’t know if he lacks the vision for it, or if he just understands his limitations and knows his lateral agility and speed would not be able to make the move necessary. Either way, it’s a problem for the Bills offense.

 

Take the following video of McCaffrey for example. You and I both know that Singletary would have plowed right into the hole in front of him for a 4 yard gain (the one McCaffrey originally takes), instead of taking the cutback that netted 20 yards. That will not change with a better offensive line. Singletary is who he is.

 

 

 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

It's actually not a good sample size for a supposed lead back.  Devin's never had more than 188 attempts in a season, which is less than 12 carries per game.  

 

He's more Charlie Garner (4.6ypc) than Adrian Peterson (4.6 ypc)

 

YEARS in the league is an adequate sample size to compare YPC, even if they are used differently. 

[cle23]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:29 PM, Augie said:

 

I’m not saying Motor is CMC, but Singletary has a higher career average YPC with 4.7 vs 4.6. Pretty large sample size, too. The RB isn’t the problem.  It is the OL. Period. Yes, an upgrade would be great, but I’m not blaming the RB. 

 

You can't compare their YPC though,  without context.  CMC was the focal point of the offense in Carolina, and didn't have much help.  They have decent WRs but no one to get them the ball.  Singletary is the 3rd-5th option in Buffalo,  so teams don't game plan around him.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

You can't compare their YPC though,  without context.  CMC was the focal point of the offense in Carolina, and didn't have much help.  They have decent WRs but no one to get them the ball.  Singletary is the 3rd-5th option in Buffalo,  so teams don't game plan around him.  

Still need to be able to run for those times when your QB looks like steaming dog-*****

 

[SCBills]

6 hours ago, Airseven said:

OL stinks.

 

It really doesn't.  It's not elite, but the Bills OL is in the next tier of teams that can have good moments and bad moments, but don't sabotage games.  

 

Offensive Lines around the league are struggling.  

 

I've seen our OL vs a lot of good fronts and they have never looked as bad as the Chiefs OL looked against us and the Titans.  

 

We honestly don't know if we can run the ball.  We don't try.  Singletary, Cook and Hines is a pretty talented backfield.  

 

What we do know is that this team struggles to run in obvious short yardage situations... that's a bit different than an overall game where we try to become more balanced.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

It's actually not a good sample size for a supposed lead back.  Devin's never had more than 188 attempts in a season, which is less than 12 carries per game.  

 

He's more Charlie Garner (4.6ypc) than Adrian Peterson (4.6 ypc)

Not a good enough sample size?

 

He’s been in the league 3.5 years now with similar output every season? 

[pocoboy]

I should start a companion thread, "Why oh why can't the Bills research time travel so they can kidnap Jim Brown and the Hogs and bring them to 2022?"

[Matt_In_NH]

If Keenum goes in the offense will be a lot different and I would expect establishing the run to be a higher priority.