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Potentially good news for Bills long-term weather wise. Warmer temps, less snow predicted for WNY


Big Turk

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Due to weak La Nina conditions in the third year...typically gives us warmer temps and less snowfall(although this doesn't mean a single day or stretch of time can't be cold and snowy, just usually reduces the odds).

 

Hoping we get a winter similar to a few years ago where it was in the 40s and 50s through much of December and into January and everyone was sitting around wondering WTF was going on. Believe we ended the season with 37 inches of snow which is well, well below normal and didn't even have a single foot+ snow event that year.

 

Long article breaking things down if anyone wants to read...also includes Europe forecast which is less important to this topic.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Edited by Big Turk
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  • Big Turk changed the title to Potentially good news for Bills long-term weather wise. Warmer temps, less snow predicted for WNY
3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How doesn't it?  Or are you claiming that weather doesn't have the ability to routinely negatively effect games for the Bills?  I seem to remember a Patriot game last year where that was a kind of important factor...along with several others where it likely effected our offensive numbers.

I guess the question is, How accurate are these sorts of long-range weather forecasts?  My guess is that they're not worth the bandwidth they're written on.

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Just now, mannc said:

I guess the question is, How accurate are these sorts of long-range weather forecasts?  My guess is that they're not worth the bandwidth they're written on.

 

For any given day? Obviously not.  In general terms over the 3-4 month timeframe, usually pretty good.

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3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I'm not trying to be a wise guy, but what's your basis for saying that?

 

I was a meteorology major for 2 years and still am highly interested in it and follow things?  Those forecasts are based on historical trends over long periods of time(like 100+ years) under the same type of La Nina conditions for places.

Edited by Big Turk
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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I was a meteorology major for 2 years and still am highly interested in it and follow things?

Fair enough.  I see forecasts like that all the time, but I rarely see any follow-up to see how the forecast actually turned out.  I would also assume that the accuracy of such forecasts varies considerably, depending which part of the world and what time of year you're talking about ...

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39 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm hoping for warmer weather, I'm coming out from Oregon for my first winter home game against the Jets!

 

Well then you gotta experience a crazy home snow game in Buffalo!

 

Unless of course you already have. Then yeah, I'd also prefer to avoid it😅

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3 minutes ago, CoffeeDrip said:

I hate everything about this. Winter is one of the few things that keeps me living here and the more warm/green winters we get the less I want to stick around. 😑

 

Serious question...where would you go? Alaska?

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1 hour ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm hoping for warmer weather, I'm coming out from Oregon for my first winter home game against the Jets!

That's awesome.  I'll be coming up from Philly during that game as well and it'll be my first time stepping in Buffalo.  Hoping for good weather as well since i'll be driving up there. 

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58 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I was a meteorology major for 2 years and still am highly interested in it and follow things?  Those forecasts are based on historical trends over long periods of time(like 100+ years) under the same type of La Nina conditions for places.

I too spent a couple years at UCLA studying meteorology. These climatic forecasts are pretty damn accurate. Supposedly this might be the last La Nina event as wetter weather is expected in late March on the west coast. My concern for Buffalo this winter revolves more around the wind. Hopefully we don't see another event like last year.

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Can be a mile or two makes a big difference.  In 2014, we had 7 feet. At about 1.5 miles north at the county fire tower (thy)e county emergency HQ) they had only a few inches and at the airport (3 miles away) the ground was bare.

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40 minutes ago, CoffeeDrip said:

I hate everything about this. Winter is one of the few things that keeps me living here and the more warm/green winters we get the less I want to stick around. 😑

ha, most people are the opposite!  But I’m with you… I like the cold and snow.

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I live in a warmer climate and really miss the snow and winter sports.  If we are very lucky, there is good snow about 2 1/2 hours north of us and we can take the kids sledding (or we can ski).  It's five hours of driving, round trip, or an overnight hotel.  It's a lot of hassle for a couple of hours of sledding.  Plus, the opportunities are few and far between.

 

I loved being a kid in Buffalo and sledding, skiing and even strapping on the skates for some outdoor hockey every now and then.  A couple of good friends had small rinks in their backyards.  Snowball fights were also fun.  We did have to drive to get to skiing, but could walk to sledding or ice skating.  My kids are jealous.

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53 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

I went to whitefish in early 2000's it was some of the best snow I've been on. Great Divide in Marrysville MT is also phenomenal. I think a lot of the lifts will be open by Thanksgiving here in Oregon.


If you ever want to go back, I have a small condo rental there and will give the Bills fan discount! 😉

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I was a meteorology major for 2 years and still am highly interested in it and follow things?  Those forecasts are based on historical trends over long periods of time(like 100+ years) under the same type of La Nina conditions for places.

I was pre-med for two years, need any medical advice?

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the whole thing about WNY being so scary and awful weather is overblown, IMO

 

True winter here lasts from late December to early March. 3 (ish) months and change of true "winter" and even late December and early March have warmer spells where it's 50 degrees out and sunny. 

 

Anyone who owns a snowmobile in WNY understand this well. 3-4 weeks TOPS when you can use the sled most years. and that's a few days here, a week there, in total for the whole winter. If you're lucky. Last winter it was like 2 weeks in late January/early February. 

 

It's 60 degrees and sunny outside today, which is not too crazy for early November here. 

 

A December Bills game is likely to be 42 degrees and grey skies. Yes, it COULD very well blizzard anytime now, but it is MORE likely to be in the 40's or 50's with gloomy skies and that signature WNY November/early December fogginess that lasts all day long. 

 

November and early December here are a "wear a comfy hoodie, drink beer and have a BBQ" kind of vibe. 

 

 

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