wjag Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, wjag said: Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? No, it's still sound strategy. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, wjag said: Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? give them time to realize Many teams still defer on the strategy that they score at the end of the half and again at the beginning of the 3rd Edited September 23, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 When your QB throws 'the most accurate and catchable ball ever seen', coin toss is irrelevant. Roll Tua! 🙄 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I say yes. The Bills are gonna come out with a script they've cooked up that will have a high chance of scoring. Why make it easy by letting them start on the 25 yard line or better. Take your chance at getting them behind in score or at least make it harder by trying to pin them deep and control the field position. If you do well enough to still be in the game at half time, it probably doesn't really matter who starts the 3rd. Stick with the game plan that's working. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 If I was a team like Tennessee who are not explosive offensively yes, I'd take the ball. Try and eat some clock early and put up 7 on a methodical long drive and get ahead of the game. If I was an offensive team like Miami or LAR who obviously believe in their own ability to score I'd defer and try and double dip. I always felt that way when we were the ground and pound team with Tyrod too. Take the ball, get in front of the game, that matters more to teams built that way than a double dip. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The Bills have a monster defense too. Taking the ball maybe still not a good idea with a monster D thats fresh. If you go 3 and out then the Bills march down and score now they can triple dip... first score, score end of half, score after halftime. Defer is always the correct move IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: If I was a team like Tennessee who are not explosive offensively yes, I'd take the ball. Try and eat some clock early and put up 7 on a methodical long drive and get ahead of the game. If I was an offensive team like Miami or LAR who obviously believe in their own ability to score I'd defer and try and double dip. I always felt that way when we were the ground and pound team with Tyrod too. Take the ball, get in front of the game, that matters more to teams built that way than a double dip. Agreed 12 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: I say yes. The Bills are gonna come out with a script they've cooked up that will have a high chance of scoring. Why make it easy by letting them start on the 25 yard line or better. Take your chance at getting them behind in score or at least make it harder by trying to pin them deep and control the field position. If you do well enough to still be in the game at half time, it probably doesn't really matter who starts the 3rd. Stick with the game plan that's working. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, wjag said: Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? This trend started several years ago. I think Marrone, BB, and others started deferring. Now most of the league defers. It’s especially important with weather conditions, wind, fog, heavy rain, etc. With the Bills it is futile as they so often score on their first drive. I’ve come to just expect it. I almost feel let down when we start out with just a field goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohninMinn. Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 If the Bills win the toss and break with the norm by receiving, they will send a chill down Miami's collective spine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I'd much rather have the potential for an extra possession in the 2nd half than in the 1st half. Deferring is almost always the right call. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) Including the playoffs, the Bills have now scored TD's on 7 straight opening drives... Looking back at my original comment, might not be a smart decision to basically have a great chance of immediately going down 7-0 to us. Then again, the Bills have only allowed an opening TD on like 3 of the last 30 opening drives so that isn't really a great option either. Edited September 23, 2022 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I found it funny that the Browns elected to receive last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
716er Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 If I am facing the Bills I will onside every time. 17% chance of recovery Not sure on the number, but I bet the odds of the Bills getting to at least the 40-yard line (where the Bills would likely get the ball if the onside kick failed) each possession are higher than the inverse of the recovery percentage - 83% 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, 716er said: If I am facing the Bills I will onside every time. 17% chance of recovery Not sure on the number, but I bet the odds of the Bills getting to at least the 40-yard line (where the Bills would likely get the ball if the onside kick failed) each possession are higher than the inverse of the recovery percentage - 83% Interesting, never thought of it that way. Nobody would ever do it, but it’s interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 When you are an away team in front of a very loud fanbase (Bills), you always defer your offense to the second half thought being to start second half, the crowd is still eatind/drnking/getting food/going to the bathroom and not nearly as loud so you can run your offense better.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 "Tua is a threat with the ball in his hands!" - said nobody ever I think the Bills will continue to defer if they win. This week will not be any different 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Bills should always defer as they usually get much better as the game goes on versus how we start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pocoboy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ramza86 said: Bills should always defer as they usually get much better as the game goes on versus how we start. They score touchdowns on nearly every opening drive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, pocoboy said: They score touchdowns on nearly every opening drive. Says alot about the team huh? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 IMO, the strategy should be to get the ball for as many offensive series as possible within 60 minutes of game time. So I think you might actually want the ball first. These guys don't seem to get that ALL series are equally important and it is just as important to score in the first 4 minutes of the game as the last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) https://www.waldrn.com/how-the-nfls-2008-rule-change-affected-coin-toss-strategy/ According to this article, Bills are one of the top 3 teams that elect to defer. The win percentage difference is practically negligible. Win percentage was 52% if you win the toss and elect to defer vs 50.8% if you win toss and elect to receive. The data is just through 2018 but it is a large sample size. As Shakespeare would say it is Much ado about Nothing. Edited September 23, 2022 by Ethan in Cleveland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Rubes said: Interesting, never thought of it that way. Nobody would ever do it, but it’s interesting. it’s bad enough giving Josh 80 to 90 yards. Cutting that to 60 no way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 7 hours ago, wjag said: Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? Most teams defer including the Bills so you can't really fault the Rams or Titans for doing the obvious. Miami will do the same if they win the toss as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LyndonvilleBill Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: it’s bad enough giving Josh 80 to 90 yards. Cutting that to 60 no way Agree. 80-90 Josh would have to think about it, 60 yards, flick of the wrist. Never need to get a 1st down, just TD'S all day long.🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: When you are an away team in front of a very loud fanbase (Bills), you always defer your offense to the second half thought being to start second half, the crowd is still eatind/drnking/getting food/going to the bathroom and not nearly as loud so you can run your offense better.. There will be more Bills fans in that stadium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Prime psychological move: Bills win coin toss: "We really don't care. You can defend whichever end, and receive both kickoffs in both halves. Have a nice game." 🙂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 OK so here is the conundrum. Bills have scored TDs on 7 straight opening drive possessions. Bills have prevented opposing teams from scoring opening drive TDs on 27 of the last 30 possessions. Kind of like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 On 9/23/2022 at 7:16 AM, wjag said: Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? No. One of the many things that McDermott does that promotes excellence on this team is stress the importance of the second half and particularly the 4th quarter. I know that points are points, but seven to open the second half is always more important than seven to open the first half. I've heard several coaches make the same point. Someone, I think a college basketball coach, said the "the point of playing the first half is to get to the second half." I've often said that you can't win the game in the first half, but you can lose it. Josh said that at halftime of the Rams game, he wasn't worried, because he knew the team was playing well, despite the score. Belichick at halftime of the Super Bowl, down big to the Falcons, said no one was worried, because they knew they had been competitive on the field, they just hadn't been competitive on the scoreboard. If the Bills defense is going to play well enough to slow down the Dolphins, an opening drive for a TD won't matter - the Bills will win anyway. If the Bills defense can't stop the Dolphins, an opening TD drive probably won't save them. The game plan is always the same - stay close in the first half, win the game in the second half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scuba guy Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 So I would say flip a quarter . Do you want to see Josh and the offense 1st Or do you want to the the number 1 d last year that allows just 17 points in 2 games this year. Just like the above poster said your dammed if you do and dammed if you dont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 23 hours ago, Nextmanup said: IMO, the strategy should be to get the ball for as many offensive series as possible within 60 minutes of game time. So I think you might actually want the ball first. You're thinking isn't clear about this. You're assuming that possessions will go back and forth throughout the game, and therefore the team that gets the ball first statistically would have a chance of getting an extra possession. That would make sense only if the second half kickoff was determined by who had the ball last in the first half. Instead, there are two halves, which means that the team that receives the opening kickoff has a good chance of having an extra possession in the first half, and the other team has the exact same chance of having an extra possession in the second half. McDermott's philosophy on deferring is based on his belief (that may be hard to establish with data) that you win more often by playing your best in the second half. That is, if you can play one good half and one bad half, you'd rather have your good half in the second half. So, he prepares his team to play their best in the second half. If you're going to play your best in the second half, that's the half you'd like to have the extra possession. And I'd never thought about it, but RoyBatty is correct about being on the road. In a lot of stadiums, including in Orchard Park, the fans tend to be late getting back to their seats to begin the second half, so the crowd support for the defense is weaker opening the third quarter compared to opening the game. That gives the visiting offense an advantage opening the third quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 On 9/23/2022 at 7:16 AM, wjag said: Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night. Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD. Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy? If you believe in your offense you defer. As sure you could go down 7-0 but getting the ball back at start of 2nd half could look large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: You're thinking isn't clear about this. You're assuming that possessions will go back and forth throughout the game, and therefore the team that gets the ball first statistically would have a chance of getting an extra possession. That would make sense only if the second half kickoff was determined by who had the ball last in the first half. Instead, there are two halves, which means that the team that receives the opening kickoff has a good chance of having an extra possession in the first half, and the other team has the exact same chance of having an extra possession in the second half. McDermott's philosophy on deferring is based on his belief (that may be hard to establish with data) that you win more often by playing your best in the second half. That is, if you can play one good half and one bad half, you'd rather have your good half in the second half. So, he prepares his team to play their best in the second half. If you're going to play your best in the second half, that's the half you'd like to have the extra possession. And I'd never thought about it, but RoyBatty is correct about being on the road. In a lot of stadiums, including in Orchard Park, the fans tend to be late getting back to their seats to begin the second half, so the crowd support for the defense is weaker opening the third quarter compared to opening the game. That gives the visiting offense an advantage opening the third quarter. If Buffalo does what they did to the Titans every week.....score so many points that they can take the starters out by the 4th qtr, receiving the 1st kickoff becomes more important. Also, the Titans are not a bad team. However, they were under duress the entire game because Buffalo just never let off the gas. There are many different ways to look at it. Titans couldn't keep up. They started taking chances and as a result made a lot of mistakes. Also, just because the side that defers is last to receive does not mean they will be the last to possess the ball. So, whoever receives 1st, has a chance to receive 1 more time than the team that defers. Once in the first half, but then the other team has a chance to possess the ball one more time. Personally, I think it averages out. There are arguments for each. I do believe the second half is where you have a clearer picture of who has more talent and who wants it more. I'm not sold though that deferring has any significant advantage. The game is played for 60 minutes. 30 in the 1st half, 30 in the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 My kick off strategy is to stop them from scoring on the first possession or we score on the first possession, pretty damn solid strategy imo, 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CircleTheWagons99 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Win coin toss and select to kick, but kick on side so they get the ball first both times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Rockinon said: Personally, I think it averages out. There are arguments for each. I do believe the second half is where you have a clearer picture of who has more talent and who wants it more. I'm not sold though that deferring has any significant advantage. The game is played for 60 minutes. 30 in the 1st half, 30 in the 2nd. You make good arguments. I think a team should always want the chance to open the second half on offense and have a chance at the final possession at the end of the game. And you certainly don't want your opponent to have that advantage. Regardless of the score at halftime, you want the ball first. To begin your comeback or to bury the other guys deeper, you want the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 I’d prefer to defer, regardless. Especially on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 (edited) On 9/23/2022 at 7:52 AM, machine gun kelly said: This trend started several years ago. I think Marrone, BB, and others started deferring. Now most of the league defers. It’s especially important with weather conditions, wind, fog, heavy rain, etc. With the Bills it is futile as they so often score on their first drive. I’ve come to just expect it. I almost feel let down when we start out with just a field goal. It often gives you the opportunity to score before halftime, get the ball and score again after halftime before the other team has a chance to touch the ball and really change the flow of a game. Prime Patriots were masters of this. Edited September 24, 2022 by That's No Moon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 58 minutes ago, That's No Moon said: It often gives you the opportunity to score before halftime, get the ball and score again after halftime before the other team has a chance to touch the ball and really change the flow of a game. Prime Patriots were masters of this. yep. My point to the op, was this is nothing new league wide. I just don’t like being rude to someone. He was on point, just maybe didn’t know almost all the teams defer. No biggie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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