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Opening Kick Off Strategy vs Bills


wjag
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Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?

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Just now, wjag said:

Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?

 

No, it's still sound strategy. 

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2 hours ago, wjag said:

Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?


give them time to realize 

 

Star Trek Borg GIF


Many teams still defer on the strategy that they score at the end of the half and again at the beginning of the 3rd 

Edited by SlimShady'sSpaceForce
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I say yes.

 

The Bills are gonna come out with a script they've cooked up that will have a high chance of scoring. Why make it easy by letting them start on the 25 yard line or better. Take your chance at getting them behind in score or at least make it harder by trying to pin them deep and control the field position. If you do well enough to still be in the game at half time, it probably doesn't really matter who starts the 3rd. Stick with the game plan that's working.

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If I was a team like Tennessee who are not explosive offensively yes, I'd take the ball. Try and eat some clock early and put up 7 on a methodical long drive and get ahead of the game. If I was an offensive team like Miami or LAR who obviously believe in their own ability to score I'd defer and try and double dip. 

 

I always felt that way when we were the ground and pound team with Tyrod too. Take the ball, get in front of the game, that matters more to teams built that way than a double dip. 

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The Bills have a monster defense too.  Taking the ball maybe still not a good idea with a monster D thats fresh.  If you go 3 and out then the Bills march down and score now they can triple dip... first score, score end of half, score after halftime.  Defer is always the correct move IMO.

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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If I was a team like Tennessee who are not explosive offensively yes, I'd take the ball. Try and eat some clock early and put up 7 on a methodical long drive and get ahead of the game. If I was an offensive team like Miami or LAR who obviously believe in their own ability to score I'd defer and try and double dip. 

 

I always felt that way when we were the ground and pound team with Tyrod too. Take the ball, get in front of the game, that matters more to teams built that way than a double dip. 

Agreed

12 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I say yes.

 

The Bills are gonna come out with a script they've cooked up that will have a high chance of scoring. Why make it easy by letting them start on the 25 yard line or better. Take your chance at getting them behind in score or at least make it harder by trying to pin them deep and control the field position. If you do well enough to still be in the game at half time, it probably doesn't really matter who starts the 3rd. Stick with the game plan that's working.

Agreed.

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34 minutes ago, wjag said:

Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?


This trend started several years ago.  I think Marrone, BB, and others started deferring.  Now most of the league defers.  It’s especially important with weather conditions, wind, fog, heavy rain, etc.

 

With the Bills it is futile as they so often score on their first drive.  I’ve come to just expect it.  I almost feel let down when we start out with just a field goal.

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Including the playoffs, the Bills have now scored TD's on 7 straight opening drives...

 

Looking back at my original comment, might not be a smart decision to basically have a great chance of immediately going down 7-0 to us.

 

Then again, the Bills have only allowed an opening TD on like 3 of the last 30 opening drives so that isn't really a great option either.

Edited by Big Turk
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If I am facing the Bills I will onside every time. 

 

17% chance of recovery

 

Not sure on the number, but I bet the odds of the Bills getting to at least the 40-yard line (where the Bills would likely get the ball if the onside kick failed) each possession are higher than the inverse of the recovery percentage - 83%

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21 minutes ago, 716er said:

If I am facing the Bills I will onside every time. 

 

17% chance of recovery

 

Not sure on the number, but I bet the odds of the Bills getting to at least the 40-yard line (where the Bills would likely get the ball if the onside kick failed) each possession are higher than the inverse of the recovery percentage - 83%


Interesting, never thought of it that way. Nobody would ever do it, but it’s interesting.

 

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