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Opening Kick Off Strategy vs Bills


wjag
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IMO, the strategy should be to get the ball for as many offensive series as possible within 60 minutes of game time.


So I think you might actually want the ball first.  

 

These guys don't seem to get that ALL series are equally important and it is just as important to score in the first 4 minutes of the game as the last.

 

 

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https://www.waldrn.com/how-the-nfls-2008-rule-change-affected-coin-toss-strategy/

 

According to this article, Bills are one of the top 3 teams that elect to defer. The win percentage difference is practically negligible.  Win percentage was 52% if you win the toss and elect to defer vs 50.8% if you win toss and elect to receive. 

The data is just through 2018 but it is a large sample size.

As Shakespeare would say it is Much ado about Nothing. 

Edited by Ethan in Cleveland
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7 hours ago, wjag said:

Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?

 

Most teams defer including the Bills so you can't really fault the Rams or Titans for doing the obvious.

 

Miami will do the same if they win the toss as well.

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13 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


it’s bad enough giving Josh 80 to 90 yards.  Cutting that to 60 

 

no way 

Agree. 80-90 Josh would have to think about it, 60 yards, flick of the wrist. Never need to get a 1st down, just TD'S all day long.🤣

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8 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 When you are an away team in front of a very loud fanbase (Bills), you always defer your offense to the second half thought being to start second half, the crowd is still eatind/drnking/getting food/going to the bathroom and not nearly as loud so you can run your offense better..

There will be more Bills fans in that stadium.

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OK so here is the conundrum.

 

Bills have scored TDs on 7 straight opening drive possessions.

Bills have prevented opposing teams from scoring opening drive TDs on 27 of the last 30 possessions. 

 

Kind of like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario

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On 9/23/2022 at 7:16 AM, wjag said:

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?

No.  One of the many things that McDermott does that promotes excellence on this team is stress the importance of the second half and particularly the 4th quarter.  I know that points are points, but seven to open the second half is always more important than seven to open the first half.  

 

I've heard several coaches make the same point.  Someone, I think a college basketball coach, said the "the point of playing the first half is to get to the second half."  

 

I've often said that you can't win the game in the first half, but you can lose it.  

 

Josh said that at halftime of the Rams game, he wasn't worried, because he knew the team was playing well, despite the score.  Belichick at halftime of the Super Bowl, down big to the Falcons, said no one was worried, because they knew they had been competitive on the field, they just hadn't been competitive on the scoreboard.  

 

If the Bills defense is going to play well enough to slow down the Dolphins, an opening drive for a TD won't matter - the Bills will win anyway.   If the Bills defense can't stop the Dolphins, an opening TD drive probably won't save them.  

 

The game plan is always the same - stay close in the first half, win the game in the second half.  

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So I would say flip a quarter .

 

Do you want to see Josh and the offense 1st

 

Or do you want to the the number 1 d last year that allows just 17 points in 2 games this year.

 

 

Just like the above poster said your dammed if you do and dammed if you dont

 

 

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23 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

IMO, the strategy should be to get the ball for as many offensive series as possible within 60 minutes of game time.


So I think you might actually want the ball first.  

 

 

You're thinking isn't clear about this.  You're assuming that possessions will go back and forth throughout the game, and therefore the team that gets the ball first statistically would have a chance of getting an extra possession.  That would make sense only if the second half kickoff was determined by who had the ball last in the first half.  

 

Instead, there are two halves, which means that the team that receives the opening kickoff has a good chance of having an extra possession in the first half, and the other team has the exact same chance of having an extra possession in the second half.  

 

McDermott's philosophy on deferring is based on his belief (that may be hard to establish with data) that you win more often by playing your best in the second half.  That is, if you can play one good half and one bad half, you'd rather have your good half in the second half.   So, he prepares his team to play their best in the second half.  If you're going to play your best in the second half, that's the half you'd like to have the extra possession.  

 

And I'd never thought about it, but RoyBatty is correct about being on the road.  In a lot of stadiums, including in Orchard Park, the fans tend to be late getting back to their seats to begin the second half, so the crowd support for the defense is weaker opening the third quarter compared to opening the game.  That gives the visiting offense an advantage opening the third quarter.  

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On 9/23/2022 at 7:16 AM, wjag said:

Some time in the last few years most teams have adopted the strategy after winning the toss to put their defense on the field. They all seem to value starting the second half with the ball and potentially double dipping end of first half — start of second. Tennessee did it again on Monday night.  Buffalo marched right down the field and scored a TD.  
 

Knowing the Bills are likely to move the ball would you change strategy?

If you believe in your offense you defer. As sure you could go down 7-0 but getting the ball back at start of 2nd half could look large. 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

You're thinking isn't clear about this.  You're assuming that possessions will go back and forth throughout the game, and therefore the team that gets the ball first statistically would have a chance of getting an extra possession.  That would make sense only if the second half kickoff was determined by who had the ball last in the first half.  

 

Instead, there are two halves, which means that the team that receives the opening kickoff has a good chance of having an extra possession in the first half, and the other team has the exact same chance of having an extra possession in the second half.  

 

McDermott's philosophy on deferring is based on his belief (that may be hard to establish with data) that you win more often by playing your best in the second half.  That is, if you can play one good half and one bad half, you'd rather have your good half in the second half.   So, he prepares his team to play their best in the second half.  If you're going to play your best in the second half, that's the half you'd like to have the extra possession.  

 

And I'd never thought about it, but RoyBatty is correct about being on the road.  In a lot of stadiums, including in Orchard Park, the fans tend to be late getting back to their seats to begin the second half, so the crowd support for the defense is weaker opening the third quarter compared to opening the game.  That gives the visiting offense an advantage opening the third quarter.  

 

If Buffalo does what they did to the Titans every week.....score so many points that they can take the starters out by the 4th qtr, receiving the 1st kickoff becomes more important. Also, the Titans are not a bad team. However, they were under duress the entire game because Buffalo just never let off the gas. There are many different ways to look at it. Titans couldn't keep up. They started taking chances and as a result made a lot of mistakes. Also, just because the side that defers is last to receive does not mean they will be the last to possess the ball. So, whoever receives 1st, has a chance to receive 1 more time than the team that defers.  Once in the first half, but then the other team has a chance to possess the ball one more time.

 

 

Personally, I think it averages out. There are arguments for each.  I do believe the second half is where you have a clearer picture of who has more talent and who wants it more. I'm not sold though that deferring has any significant advantage.  The game is played for 60 minutes.  30 in the 1st half, 30 in the 2nd.

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My kick off strategy is to stop them from scoring on the first possession or we score on the first possession, 

pretty damn solid strategy imo, 👍

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2 hours ago, Rockinon said:

 

 

Personally, I think it averages out. There are arguments for each.  I do believe the second half is where you have a clearer picture of who has more talent and who wants it more. I'm not sold though that deferring has any significant advantage.  The game is played for 60 minutes.  30 in the 1st half, 30 in the 2nd.

You make good arguments.  

 

I think a team should always want the chance to open the second half on offense and have a chance at the final possession at the end of the game. And you certainly don't want your opponent to have that advantage.  Regardless of the score at halftime, you want the ball first.  To begin your comeback or to bury the other guys deeper, you want the ball.

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On 9/23/2022 at 7:52 AM, machine gun kelly said:


This trend started several years ago.  I think Marrone, BB, and others started deferring.  Now most of the league defers.  It’s especially important with weather conditions, wind, fog, heavy rain, etc.

 

With the Bills it is futile as they so often score on their first drive.  I’ve come to just expect it.  I almost feel let down when we start out with just a field goal.

It often gives you the opportunity to score before halftime, get the ball and score again after halftime before the other team has a chance to touch the ball and really change the flow of a game. Prime Patriots were masters of this.

Edited by That's No Moon
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58 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

It often gives you the opportunity to score before halftime, get the ball and score again after halftime before the other team has a chance to touch the ball and really change the flow of a game. Prime Patriots were masters of this.


yep.  My point to the op, was this is nothing new league wide.  I just don’t like being rude to someone.  He was on point, just maybe didn’t know almost all the teams defer.  No biggie.

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