The short yardage conundrum

[SoCal Deek]

Just spread the offense (and therefore the defense) out and run Josh up the middle. Don’t over think it!

[Meatloaf63]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

As great as this team is, the offense struggles in short yardage situations.

 

The Bills were dead-last in the NFL last season on 3rd and 1. And they were 0-4 on 3rd or 4th and 1 last night.

 

Question: Why do you think the Bills struggle in this area and what specifically do you feel that they can do to improve this facet of their offense?

 

Edit: A poster pointed out that we did actually convert one 4th and 1 last night. Sorry about the incorrectness above.

 

.

Terrible play calling and design, inability to establish a consistent running game. Moss, relying on Moss🤦‍♂️

Edited September 21, 2022 by Meatloaf63

[Orlando Tim]

The Bills offense is built to pick up 8-10 yards a play, we don't value 3 yards much. Therefore I say we just run our normal offense no matter the situation, I saw we are statistically better since the middle of last year on 3rd and 9 or more than 3rd and 1.

2 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

Actually, I'm concerned about the running game in general. RB's have gotten off to another slow start, and could be an exploited Achilles heal as the season goes on. The Bills have been impressive obviously, but the running game has not. Singletary is average at best. Moss belongs on somebody's practice squad, or cooking Fries. No idea what Cook can do. Maybe this is why our 3rd and ones are horrid?  

Teams are packing up to stop the run and single covering Diggs, which is asking for the Bills to destroy you. Also our O line is good pass blockers but below average run blockers 

[djp14150]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

As great as this team is, the offense struggles in short yardage situations.

 

The Bills were dead-last in the NFL last season on 3rd and 1. And they were 0-4 on 3rd or 4th and 1 last night.

 

Question: Why do you think the Bills struggle in this area and what specifically do you feel that they can do to improve this facet of their offense?

 

Edit: A poster pointed out that we did actually convert one 4th and 1 last night. Sorry about the incorrectness above.

 

.

they played 2 teams who have very strong DLs.

[WickedGame]

How many fourth down plays have we had this year? Like…three?

 

If I ran this offense, I wouldn’t lose a ton of sleep over missing a 3rd and 1 from time to time because I’d go for it on 4th and 1 every time. This team just doesn’t miss on back-to-back plays often (regardless of down and distance).
 

How many times has Josh thrown two consecutive incompletions this year? If it has happened on fewer than 5% of drop backs, that says good things about my odds of converting one yard on two tries. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

they played 2 teams who have very strong DLs.

 

that doesn’t explain ranking in last place last season too

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

The Bills offense is built to pick up 8-10 yards a play, we don't value 3 yards much. Therefore I say we just run our normal offense no matter the situation, I saw we are statistically better since the middle of last year on 3rd and 9 or more than 3rd and 1.

 

This. We're so focused on picking up 1 yard, it's like we forget we're allowed to pick up as many yards as we want. If the whole defense is keying up to stop the run, go play action and hit Diggs with a quick pass 6 yards down the field when he's 1-on-1 versus a rookie CB. I'll take those odds every time over hoping the right side of our OL and a rookie short-armed WR are able to hold their blocks. I think Dorsey, and really all coaches, need to trust the best players on their offense in those situations instead of trying to call the perfect play. Like the 4th and goal play that we scored on was dead, the Titans had McKenzie covered, but because Allen and Diggs are on the field it became a TD anyways.

[GunnerBill]

It is where having Mitch Morse as your center hurts. He has been a big part of our pass game success but he is just not a good people mover in short yardage and our guard play is an has been meh. 

 

It is a bit of everything though, playcalling, execution, lack of push from oline. 

[ndirish1978]

Short yardage is a work in progress this year. I believe we'll figure it out. Red zone defense needs to be stiffer. Hope Oliver and Philips are ready for this week, we will need our pass rush to make up for deficiencies in coverage by our rookie CBs. 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Just spread the offense (and therefore the defense) out and run Josh up the middle. Don’t over think it!

This is the answer sometime but do we really want Josh Allen taking all those hits how about just spreading them out and letting Reggie Gilliam run it Unlike Moss He really does appear to move piles

[Man with No Name]

Maybe Morse is the key here, as said above. This is something that has bothered me for 2 or 3 years. It might be from watching brady the past 20 years. 3 and 1 or 4 and 1 are always automatic with him, just sneaking behind the center. Feels like this is a play we should be able to execute, but we just don't. not sure of all the intricacies at work, but we need to be better there. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

It is where having Mitch Morse as your center hurts. He has been a big part of our pass game success but he is just not a good people mover in short yardage and our guard play is an has been meh. 

 

It is a bit of everything though, playcalling, execution, lack of push from oline. 

All I know is there is a significant drop off when Singleterry comes out of the game and Moss goes in

 

I understand bringing cook along slowly but I swear to God I would’ve been totally OK if the bills would have gotten rid of moss and kept Blackshear I am so glad that he is on our practice squad so that he is an option down the road

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

All I know is there is a significant drop off when Singleterry comes out of the game and Moss goes in

 

I understand bringing cook along slowly but I swear to God I would’ve been totally OK if the bills would have gotten rid of moss and kept Blackshear I am so glad that he is on our practice squad so that he is an option down the road

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

[Scott7975]

I think one they are over thinking things.  Two its execution when they actually do call a good play.  Like the quick pass from Josh yesterday that hit the dirt.  He was off target trying to fire too fast but that play was perfect if he threw the pass well.  Three they keep treating Moss as some big tough short yardage back and he simply isnt good.  Motor is better at hitting the small holes and getting short yardage.  For whatever reason they still love Moss.  I have banged that drum for two years now.  Lastly, I dont think our Oline gets good enough push on an obvious run up the gut situation.  JMO.

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

I feel like we can’t even run him on third and one because he’s such a tackle magnet

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I think one they are over thinking things.  Two its execution when they actually do call a good play.  Like the quick pass from Josh yesterday that hit the dirt.  He was off target trying to fire too fast but that play was perfect if he threw the pass well.  Three they keep treating Moss as some big tough short yardage back and he simply isnt good.  Motor is better at hitting the small holes and getting short yardage.  For whatever reason they still love Moss.  I have banged that drum for two years now.  Lastly, I dont think our Oline gets good enough push on an obvious run up the gut situation.  JMO.

I thought they started putting together that short yardage toughness towards the end of last year not quite sure what’s going on at the beginning of the season it’s like defenses guessed right that it’s going to be a run in there in our backfield

Edited September 21, 2022 by John from Riverside

[Doc Brown]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Singletary converts at a 61.9% clip on runs 3rd/4th down and 3 or less out of 21 attempts.

 

Moss converts at a 60% clip, same criteria on 20 carries.  Virtually identical results. 

Even so.  Moss's roster spot is being justified by a lot of people on here as being their short yardage back.  If he can't even achieve that why is he even activated on game day when Singletary and Cook are more dynamic.  Blocking ability?

6 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

Teams are packing up to stop the run and single covering Diggs, which is asking for the Bills to destroy you. Also our O line is good pass blockers but below average run blockers 

Saffold is a better run blocker.  Just have Josh plow behind him if we're really desperate.  

[Scott7975]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

 

So far this season just once.  It was last night and it was stuffed. The 4th and 1 that followed it was a pass to Moss too and incomplete.  I dont actually remember the play so I dont know if the pass was a good pass or uncatchable.  He had quite a few last season though.

[Wyobills89]

I could of swore I remember an info graph on a game last year where josh was like 90% or better on 4th and 1. Simmons stuffed us last year in Tennessee, I can't remember the last time we hurried to the line and just forced the pickup. Brady has a good % for picking them up too. We might just need to go back to that. 

 

We definitely got to figure some things out on 3 and 1 though. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

So far this season just once.  It was last night and it was stuffed. The 4th and 1 that followed it was a pass to Moss too and incomplete.  I dont actually remember the play so I dont know if the pass was a good pass or uncatchable.  He had quite a few last season though.

 

Wasn't that the busted play?

 

EDIT: Equally I'm not saying you are wrong. I hate the run up the middle with Moss on 3rd and 1. But I'm just making the point that the long standing 3rd and short struggles are a combination of a lot of factors and Zack Moss is a smallish part of it. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Malazan]

simple solution.. take a penalty to make it 3rd/4th and 6. 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

Short yardage is a work in progress this year. I believe we'll figure it out. Red zone defense needs to be stiffer. Hope Oliver and Philips are ready for this week, we will need our pass rush to make up for deficiencies in coverage by our rookie CBs. 

Haha how many trips have Rams/Titans have into RedZone? 2 total?  

[T master]

19 hours ago, Einstein said:

As great as this team is, the offense struggles in short yardage situations.

 

The Bills were dead-last in the NFL last season on 3rd and 1. And they were 0-4 on 3rd or 4th and 1 last night.

 

Question: Why do you think the Bills struggle in this area and what specifically do you feel that they can do to improve this facet of their offense?

 

Edit: A poster pointed out that we did actually convert one 4th and 1 last night. Sorry about the incorrectness above.

 

.

 

Well if we look at who they have as their 3rd down back is it any wonder ? As to the running game it seems as though they give up on it to early some times and Motor can't even get the oil warmed up before they shut him down .

 

I hope they continue to use Gilliam his size & athleticism i think can be a asset to the short yardage game & he showed his pass catching is a plus i think he is underutilized and should be in the game more than Moss .

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont think it's homerism, but it seems to me that Defenses play the sneak more against us than other teams. What I mean is, when I see other teams in short yardage, the DL lines up like they normally do. Against the Bills, they'll stack all 4 DL between our 2 Guards. Giving Allen no lane to sneak. Makes it tougher for us to get the sneak through. And given how soft our Interior OL is, it makes sense that we dont (cant) run up and sneak it.

 

I've always thought Any Down and 1 yard should be an automatic pick up for a team. Especially when your QB is Allen's size. Just fall forward and you get 2 yards automatically. But teams have been effective at stopping that.

 

I type all this to say, likely time to upgrade from Morse.

 

We pass so much more often that I'd rather have a guy i trust in pass pro than anything else at C. 

[Big Blitz]

Here are the short yardage plays v Tennessee:

 

2nd drive:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 31:  Moss no gain

4th and 1:  incomplete to Moss

 

2nd quarter 3rd drive:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 26:  Allen incomplete to Kumerow

4th and 1:  False start Van Rotten

 

 

3rd quarter 2nd possession:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 47:  Allen incomplete to Knox

4th and 1:  Delay of game; punt

 

 

 

Get Moss off the field.  Josh made a bad throw to not Gabe Davis.  Morse was out.

[The Frankish Reich]

Is it really a conundrum? As in “an intricate and difficult problem; example: “He is faced with the conundrum of trying to find a job without having experience.”

 

Perhaps more of a puzzle, or a riddle to be solved.  A rebus if you will …

[MJS]

I think we have finesse guys on the oline. They struggle when we need to just line up and push the opposing line.

 

That's why the Bills try to resort to trick plays and misdirection to pick those up. They don't have confidence in the ability to just muscle out the 1 yard.

 

At this point I'd rather see 3rd and 4 than 3rd and 1.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

 

Moss ran one 3rd and 1.  Singletary had 16 yards on his first carry, and 5 yards on the next 7 touches.  Moss was stuffed twice at the LOS and had a nice 17 yard run.  Moss is the "targeted" receiver on the failed 4th and 1.  

 

Here's my thoughts on short yardage issues - we played Tennessee who had a top level rush defense in 2021 (2nd in the NFL). 

 

3rd and 2 - Pass to knox (1st down)

3rd and 1 - Run to moss (no gain)

4th and 1 - tried to get cute/late to the line/missed block - really just a terrible play execution all around

3rd and 1 - Allen threw it in the dirt to Kumerow, good throw is probably a first

4th and 1 - False start -Tried to get them to jump Offside but they didn't enter neutral zone 

3rd and 1 - False start 

4th and 1 - TD to Diggs

3rd and 1 - Incomplete to Knox

4th and 1 - Delay of game trying to get them to jump

 

So we had some good plays there - Knox coming across worked, Kumerow is there that should have been a first, Diggs TD obviously.  A couple of them we had penalties but i don't think we were ever snapping on 4th and 1.  But Moss is getting a ton of criticism for a single attempt on 3rd and 1. 

 

31 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Here are the short yardage plays v Tennessee:

 

2nd drive:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 31:  Moss no gain

4th and 1:  incomplete to Moss

 

2nd quarter 3rd drive:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 26:  Allen incomplete to Kumerow

4th and 1:  False start Van Rotten

 

 

3rd quarter 2nd possession:

 

3rd and 1 at Tenn 47:  Allen incomplete to Knox

4th and 1:  Delay of game; punt

 

 

 

Get Moss off the field.  Josh made a bad throw to not Gabe Davis.  Morse was out.

 

The incomplete to moss was the play where it was deflected as allen was basically getting sacked.  I guess he was the receiver there, but i don't think thats how it was drawn up at all.  

[DCofNC]

20 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

They keep lining up in a shotgun formation on short yardage for some reason. Just line up in an I formation with Gilliam and Singletary and either give it to Devin or have Josh sneak. They're just overthinking it.

100%, get out of shot gun.

19 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think we have finesse guys on the oline. They struggle when we need to just line up and push the opposing line.

 

That's why the Bills try to resort to trick plays and misdirection to pick those up. They don't have confidence in the ability to just muscle out the 1 yard.

 

At this point I'd rather see 3rd and 4 than 3rd and 1.

In fairness, they have been up against 2 of the very best in the game at DT the first 2 weeks, so maybe they don’t have confidence they can win THAT battle.   Probably a good call, I don’t think out OL could move either of those guys one on one.   Maybe it’s more to do with understanding the match up and looking for ways to keep Josh from getting killed early in the year.

[RyanC883]

21 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Put Jordan Philips in at guard and run a  sneak behind him. The Bills O line is terrible in short yardage situations. 

 

or give the ball to Phillips!

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wasn't that the busted play?

 

EDIT: Equally I'm not saying you are wrong. I hate the run up the middle with Moss on 3rd and 1. But I'm just making the point that the long standing 3rd and short struggles are a combination of a lot of factors and Zack Moss is a smallish part of it. 

 

As I said, I dont remember.  I just looked at the play by play for it.

 

I also made a post saying it was numerous things like oline push, execution, etc.  Was just trying to answer your question

[Big Turk]

22 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

They keep lining up in a shotgun formation on short yardage for some reason. Just line up in an I formation with Gilliam and Singletary and either give it to Devin or have Josh sneak. They're just overthinking it.

 

I'd even suggest since the Bills are so bad at power they spread them out and run it...but I believe they have such great pass plays out of those formations as plays that look like runs but aren't they need to show those runs or else it will be easier to defend.

[Einstein]

 

[Dr.Sack]

We need more Mahomes to Kelce like underhand pitches. Knox is just as strong as Kelce. 

[Brand J]

I said all along the Bills need to involve Knox more. I found it curious they decided to pay him top 5 TE money when he’s never been a huge part of the receiving game. Probably has more meaningful blocks than catches and I don’t consider that top 5 worthy in terms of salary. Gabe’s contract will be due soon and it’ll be a struggle to keep him I think.

[Thurman#1]

On 9/21/2022 at 11:44 PM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Moss ran one 3rd and 1.  Singletary had 16 yards on his first carry, and 5 yards on the next 7 touches.  Moss was stuffed twice at the LOS and had a nice 17 yard run.  Moss is the "targeted" receiver on the failed 4th and 1.  

 

Here's my thoughts on short yardage issues - we played Tennessee who had a top level rush defense in 2021 (2nd in the NFL). 

 

3rd and 2 - Pass to knox (1st down)

3rd and 1 - Run to moss (no gain)

4th and 1 - tried to get cute/late to the line/missed block - really just a terrible play execution all around

3rd and 1 - Allen threw it in the dirt to Kumerow, good throw is probably a first

4th and 1 - False start -Tried to get them to jump Offside but they didn't enter neutral zone 

3rd and 1 - False start 

4th and 1 - TD to Diggs

3rd and 1 - Incomplete to Knox

4th and 1 - Delay of game trying to get them to jump

 

So we had some good plays there - Knox coming across worked, Kumerow is there that should have been a first, Diggs TD obviously.  A couple of them we had penalties but i don't think we were ever snapping on 4th and 1.  But Moss is getting a ton of criticism for a single attempt on 3rd and 1.

 

 

And as Joe B pointed out this week, it was a lot more the fault of the line than the RBs when we have had running problems this year.

 

Not surprising, really, considering how little time they had working together this offseason and camp. Lots of injuries and problems and they had very little continuity. If it the line starts to gel this year, it is likely to take some time.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I said all along the Bills need to involve Knox more. I found it curious they decided to pay him top 5 TE money when he’s never been a huge part of the receiving game. Probably has more meaningful blocks than catches and I don’t consider that top 5 worthy in terms of salary. Gabe’s contract will be due soon and it’ll be a struggle to keep him I think.

 

Knox is not 100%. He is nicked up too. I think they absolutely plan on him being a bigger part of the offense in the longer term.

[frostbitmic]

They need to run better plays.

 

Running the ball between the Tackles on 3rd down doesn't seem to work for us, especially when that's what the other team knows we're going to do that.

 

Instead, send the Full back and Moss up the middle without the ball while JA17 bootlegs out and either runs for the first or gets off a short pass to Knox.

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 9/20/2022 at 3:00 PM, Billy Claude said:

I think they mentioned on the broadcast that the Bills were 32nd in the league last year in 3rd and 4th and one.  Plus, their short yardage troubles was  one of the main reason they lost all those close games last year.  It is definitely something that they should be working on. 

 

 

 

Interesting thought.  Only the Titans play where Simmons beat Dawkins and stuffed Josh comes to mind.  I should consider that here were more.  Close games in the NFL usually turn on QB play or the PK.  Josh and TBass were not to blame for that 0 and 6 record in one score games, imo.  It has me wondering if there was any root cause at all.

[Billy Claude]

38 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Interesting thought.  Only the Titans play where Simmons beat Dawkins and stuffed Josh comes to mind.  I should consider that here were more.  Close games in the NFL usually turn on QB play or the PK.  Josh and TBass were not to blame for that 0 and 6 record in one score games, imo.  It has me wondering if there was any root cause at all.

 

Looking at the Jaguar game, the Bills had a 1st and goal from the 3 that eventually became a field goal, a third and 3 that ended up as an interception and a third and 2 which led to -1 yard run and fumble by Allen.   So not quite 1 yard to go but still pretty short yardage.

 

Against the Steelers, they had a failed 3rd and 1 flea-flicker, a 3rd and 3 incompletion, a 3rd and 3 run for two yards which led to a failed 4th and 1.

 

There were times last year that I felt more confident they would convert on a 3rd and 7 than a 3rd and 2 especially before they started running Allen at the end of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Billy Claude

[mjd1001]

I would just spread the field every single time with 4 wideouts.  If the D bunches up inside, then you roll josh out and take advantage of the space with him either running or a quick toss to a WR taking advantage of the open space.  If the D spreads out and leaves room on the inside, its then almost automatic with a QB sneak or a quick run up the middle.  Either way, I spread the field 100% of the time.