The importance of a true number one WR

[Marlton Bills]

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

Edited August 25, 2022 by Marlton Bills

[ddaryl]

2 minutes ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

Vet #1 WR  do cost a lot, so it may be a trend if teams feel its the QB making the WR... 

 

[eball]

I'd say it's a luxury but not a necessity.  The real key is to have a deep and diverse group of playmakers.

[Augie]

Without Diggs, Davis doesn’t see the success he has experienced so far. A true #1, at a reasonable price, makes everyone else better, not to mention what he personally accomplishes. Diggs gets attention that can even make the run game better. Great players will always be in demand. You just need to get the contract right. 

 

I think as more talented WR’s arrive in the league the prices will probably become more reasonable. Supply and demand. 

 

 

.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Augie

[TheBrownBear]

I think it could be.  Diggs to Buffalo and the subsequent success of Justin Jefferson were sort of the start of this trend.  As college and high school ball have put more and more emphasis on the passing game, you're seeing a flood of really polished receivers each year in the draft.  Look no further than our own Khalil Shakir.  So teams are much more willing to swap an AJ Brown for a Treylon Burks and then allocating that money elsewhere.

[Rubes]

It's interesting, because WR has traditionally been one of those positions that takes several years to become really good at. So it's valuable to have a strong vet #1 WR who knows what he's doing, which also helps the younger guys.

 

I don't know what's happened in the last few years, but it seems like there are more and more rookie/young WRs that are really good right out of the gate, like Justin Jefferson. Perhaps we're just seeing more talented and polished WRs coming out of college that has shifted that traditional thinking.

 

[HOUSE]

Lol, I think you will find Gabriel Davis will eventually be the #1 WR and it's going to cost us huge bucks too

Save not want not, that's what my grandfather always told me...

[mushypeaches]

Not specifically answering this topic, I do think that the Bills have been very smart with how they devote their resources toward WR's.  With receivers coming out of college with a much more refined set of skills and being pro-ready, the difference between a 1st round WR and a 4th-5th round WR isn't as distinct as it used to be.  

 

So in past years where we used to blow a lot of draft capital on guys like Sammy Watkins, Lee Evans, and James Hardy, we're now drafting more for value with the recent drafts of Davis & Shakir in later rounds.  Let the other teams drive up the costs and fight each other for getting guys early at what's becoming the 2nd most premium position.  I'd rather have Davis & Shakir, and early round picks spent on other positions.

[Rigotz]

Do the Rams make the Super Bowl without Kooper Cupp? Probably not.

 

Do the Bengals make the Super Bowl without Ja’Marr Chase? Probably not.

 

The two other teams you mention, Packers and KC have had huge success with legit #1 WRs to throw to and BOTH were traded in the off-season for a first rounder AND a second rounder AND more. That shows you how valuable they are.

 

The other case study you can look at is the Patriots prior to Randy Moss coming to town. Same QB and same lineup, but when Moss joined it took them from a good offense to an unstoppable offense.

 

Having a true #1 elite WR matters.

[Long Suffering Fan]

39 minutes ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

This is an interesting thought experiment and I am interested in how it plays out, but I have my doubts.

 

It's not like they moved on from their studs and the studs signed mid-level deals.  People paid a king's ransom for them.  The KC-Miami deal especially.  KC not only saved on their cap (which can be used elsewhere), they got serious draft capital.  For Sabres fans - it was one of the reasons why the trade for O'Reilly was bad (IMO).  Not only did we give up a lot of assets for him, but then we immediately paid him a contract that would hurt our cap situation later.

[947]

Hill was never Mahomes' #1 receiver, it's always been Kelce. But I do expect his numbers to take a hit without a 7yd crosser turning into a 70 yd TD every other game.

 

Rodgers is an amazing QB, but he's in for a major statistical decline without Adams.

 

Both Mahomes & Rodgers would rather still have those guys.

[Malazan]

48 minutes ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

Hill was KC's #1 WR, but he's not their #1 pass catcher. They did not move on from Kelce. 

 

Let's see what happens in GB. Rodgers is already complaining that his WRs suck. 

[Nelius]

As has been said I'd say Green Bay shuffled the decked and moved on more than KC who still has Kelce and a bunch of weapons. I've had this argument a few times here this offseason but I think we're going to be surprised by how awful Green Bay is this year. I know they still have some stars on defense and in the trenches but most of them were hurt last year on top of their awful wide receiver group. I bet we're going to see a full melt-down from Rodgers this season, the likes of which we've never seen before.

 

So to answer your question, it's too early to tell. I personally can't see any advantage to shedding your #1 to go with a bunch of unproven scrubs, but we'll certainly find out by watching GB.

[hondo in seattle]

I've always thought the idea of a #1 is a bit overblown.  The cumulative talent of your 2 or 3 starters is more important.  For example, for a while Kelly was throwing to two HOFers.  How do you defend that? 

 

In the current O, if given the choice, I'd rather have 3 above-average WRs than one dominant wideout and two JAGs.  

 

But I wouldn't move on from Diggs.  I'd try to find someone nearly as good affordably in the draft.  And who knows?  Gabe may be that guy.

[Charles Romes]

Rodgers and Mahomes became too “locked in” to their number ones.  
 

They are better quarterbacks than to have let that happen and their organizations recognized that their offensives were not optimized by the quarterback locking on to the number one. 
 

Josh does not have the weakness of locking on to his number one. He’s led many fading receivers on their last NFL legs - Brown, Beasley, Sanders - to outstanding statistical seasons by always spreading the ball around to the weakest coverage and not locking in to his number one. 

[Awwufelloff]

Only the elite of elite QBS are able to make due with average WRS. In any given season there are only a 2-3 of those guys. 

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

The other half of this equation is how much better does Tyreek Hill make Miami, or Davante Adams make LV? Both those players are seeing a significant downgrade in who is passing them the ball. Sort of a chicken, or the egg question, I suppose. But, if Hill, and/or Adams underperform this season, it could well have a ripple effect in top WR salaries.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

I think the Packers are going to struggle, and is an indication of poor cap/team roster management. 

 

Aaron Rodgers takes his $50M a year, Green Bay had few other offensive superstars to pay, and they couldn't get something done with Davante Adams? 

 

I think the Packers get credit for being a smart organization, but outside of Aaron Rodgers, I don't like how they draft, always defensive top heavy, they do nothing in Free Agency. What are they good at besides Aaron Rodgers?

 

The Chiefs kept 2/3 of the trio intact, and did their best to replace Hill with Schuster, Scandling and Moore, but they're more beatable now. And at some point Kelce is going to start showing his age. He's 33 now. Also, Schuster has not been the same since his concussion against Cleveland. 

 

I think a #1 WR is important, and also important is the constant pouring of resources into weapons is necessary. It's why the Shakir pick had to happen.  

23 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Only the elite of elite QBS are able to make due with average WRS. In any given season there are only a 2-3 of those guys. 

I think this correct. 

 

Brady in the 2006 AFC Championship Game with Jabaar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell as his Top 2 WRs. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, 947 said:

Hill was never Mahomes' #1 receiver, it's always been Kelce. But I do expect his numbers to take a hit without a 7yd crosser turning into a 70 yd TD every other game.

 

Rodgers is an amazing QB, but he's in for a major statistical decline without Adams.

 

Both Mahomes & Rodgers would rather still have those guys.

 

I am one of the people not sold on Davante Adams as the best receiver in football. Rodgers's number will decline without him because their receiving corps is young and inexperienced. But his numbers will decline without Arod. 

[Albany,n.y.]

I remember in Josh's 1st 2 seasons people were getting on his case because of his completion % and I'd watch other teams with #1 WRs making plays and thought that if the WR I just watched make the QB look good was on the Bills, nobody would be criticizing Josh.  

 

A #1 WR makes things a lot more comfortable for the QB. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

Wasn't it the WRs decisions to move on, not the organizations? 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am one of the people not sold on Davante Adams as the best receiver in football. Rodgers's number will decline without him because their receiving corps is young and inexperienced. But his numbers will decline without Arod. 

The Red Zone output may be unsustainable without Rodgers, and he's quietly almost 30 now. He has always had just-enough speed to separate deep, but he's never been a ypc monster. Do you see more 1,100 - 1,200 yards now, a few more injuries now with the Raiders?

[Solomon Grundy]

20 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Brady in the 2006 AFC Championship Game with Jabaar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell as his Top 2 WRs. 

Brady's defensive and field goal kicker won him a couple of SBs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Diggs is a top 5 wr and will likely be double teamed alot. Gabe might be one of the top5 WR2's in the league so he's going to see an increase in targets. Knox, Dirty and Hodgins or Shakir will round out the remaining targets nicely. And this doesn't even take into account the dump offs to Cook.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Brady's defensive and field goal kicker won him a couple of SBs. 

By 2003 he was the best Quarterback in the league because of his bullet proof Playoff performance. 

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, Rubes said:

I don't know what's happened in the last few years, but it seems like there are more and more rookie/young WRs that are really good right out of the gate, like Justin Jefferson. Perhaps we're just seeing more talented and polished WRs coming out of college that has shifted that traditional thinking.

 

The NFL has been changing the rules to promote passing and scoring. DBs used to be able to mug guys and that often took awhile for WRs to learn to deal with. The rules being enforced to the degree they are now makes it a lot easier for WRs to transition to the NFL. 

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, Augie said:

Without Diggs, Davis doesn’t see the success he has experienced so far. A true #1, at a reasonable price, makes everyone else better, not to mention what he personally accomplishes. Diggs gets attention that can even make the run game better. Great players will always be in demand. You just need to get the contract right. 

 

I think as more talented WR’s arrive in the league the prices will probably become more reasonable. Supply and demand. 

 

 

.

Agree, As stated up thread, an array of talented receiver is key. There is always a hierarchy amongst a teams pass catchers which under circumstance will allow for a Davis Diggs result in a game, like the KC playoff game.  Imo, a ”true” #1 WR puts pressure on the opponents defense, while at the same time takes the pressure off his teams other pass catchers…, Diggs in the KC game…,

Edited August 25, 2022 by Don Otreply

[Frostbite]

2 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

Dont think so. KC knew they couldnt afford Hill, or at least didnt want to make him the highest paid WR. Adams wanted out from GB. Both teams thought it best to get some sort of value instead of letting them walk or them go full diva mode (aimed at Tyreek, dont think Adams would cause a lot of issues but who knows). I'm sure they would love to have kept them and have that alpha instead of who they have now. KC tried to replace Hill with JuJu which tells me theyre looking for elite talent at the position. GB drafted multiple wr's to try and recoup some of Adams' production. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

Do the Rams make the Super Bowl without Kooper Cupp? Probably not.

 

Do the Bengals make the Super Bowl without Ja’Marr Chase? Probably not.

 

The two other teams you mention, Packers and KC have had huge success with legit #1 WRs to throw to and BOTH were traded in the off-season for a first rounder AND a second rounder AND more. That shows you how valuable they are.

 

The other case study you can look at is the Patriots prior to Randy Moss coming to town. Same QB and same lineup, but when Moss joined it took them from a good offense to an unstoppable offense.

 

Having a true #1 elite WR matters.

 

Giants stopped them in SB 42.   3 years before Moss, NE had won back to back SBs. 

 

In Moss's 3rd season there, Welker was the team's leading season. NE won 6 SB without a true #1WR.

 

But I agree, most teams have to have a legit #1 WR to get to the next level. 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Red Zone output may be unsustainable without Rodgers, and he's quietly almost 30 now. He has always had just-enough speed to separate deep, but he's never been a ypc monster. Do you see more 1,100 - 1,200 yards now, a few more injuries now with the Raiders?

 

He has only gone over 1,000 three times in 8 seasons with Rodgers. I'm going sub 1,000 in an offense that has always been about YAC and with a QB who has always been about YAC. 

[Rigotz]

42 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

By 2003 he was the best Quarterback in the league because of his bullet proof Playoff performance. 

 

Is this ... sarcasm?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/tom-brady-playoff-stats-2003

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I knew getting rid of Robert Foster would shake this organization for years to come. 🤨

[Warriorspikes51]

In the current NFL, I think your chances of winning a SB go way up if you have this

Elite QB: Allen

Elite WR: Diggs

Elite Rush: Von
Elite CB: Tre 

All of them are Top 10 at their position. Allen and Diggs are both Top 5.

Could argue Von and Tre are Top 5 as well 
 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

The difference is both Adams and Hill got insane deals that were just not going to work for their respective teams given the massive amounts of money invested at QB and the cap restrictions they had.

 

While we have a highly paid QB, that contract for Allen was done perfectly ahead of the new cap where Allen's deal will look like a bargain soon, if not already.  Beane did the same with Diggs, he got paid a lot, but it's not the insane cap busting contract Adams and Hill got.  

 

So that is the biggest difference here, our GM was able to secure our #1 wideout on a big, but not unbearable contract while doing the same with our QB.  And he has been masterful in how he has handled all the contracts around here for the most part.  So, I don't foresee Buffalo being in a position to where they are forced into a move. 

 

Both GB and KC were forced by the WRs, who both sat out to be the highest paid at their position and were not settling for anything less on teams that had 2 of the highest paid QB's in the league. 

 

Both KC and GB had cap issues that we don't have yet.  And that again is a testament to Beane in how he manages contracts, and also a testament to the the whole team, the players, the locker room, Bills Mafia, Buffalo, etc to where players consistently have shown they want to stay in Buffalo and willing to offer a discount, even if small, to remain here.  

 

Bottom line, I fully expect Diggs to play out his contract in Buffalo.

[Rampage]

Thinking back to last year, the final four teams all had elite receivers, so it definitely is a critical component of success but you need to manage the cap accordingly, especially if you have that franchise quarterback. If you pay a receiver then you’re going to have a weaker secondary, or offensive line. It’s a give and take and im not sure there’s a right answer.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Rampage

[Patrick Duffy]

Well not to get the panties in a wad but it's a decent chance Bills end up with their own Cooper Kupp WR in Shakir. 

 

Kid has really put on a show for sure. Very excited to see him this season. 

 

As @Alphadawg7once said, I'm calling it now...Shakir gets his first NFL TD rec against the Rams in season opener.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

I wouldn't take advice from the GB management group. 

 

As for KC - they needed a lot of help in the secondary and at LB for them to have a shot to win it this year.  I think they are of the opnion that Hardman/MVS + Moore/JuJu will be what they need in the passing game to complement Kelce and CEH.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has only gone over 1,000 three times in 8 seasons with Rodgers. I'm going sub 1,000 in an offense that has always been about YAC and with a QB who has always been about YAC. 

 

Hard disagree with this description...This statement lacks context and very misleading to who Davante Adams really is.  

 

I mean absolutely no disrespect Gunner, but I have to be honest here...saying he only went over 1000 yards 3 times is just a lazy assessment of Adams and the type of player he is and disconnected from the level of player he really is. 

 

He did not even become the true #1 receiver until 2018.  Prior to that, it was Jordy Nelson who was for years Rodgers favorite target.  2017 was the actual first year he led the Packers in receiving with almost 900 yards.  No one had 1000 yards because Rodgers missed the final 9 1/2 weeks injured and Brett Hundley was the QB.  It was also Nelsons final year, who despite playing all but one game had under 500 yards that year.

 

Since 2018, his first season as the #1 WR in GB with a full season of Rodgers, Adams has averaged 1,327 yards a season despite missing an average of almost 2 games a year.  In fact, the only season he did not get to 1000 (missed it by 3 yards at 997) he missed 4 games and was on pace for well over 1300 yards again.  

 

Adams literally embarrasses and abuses defenders on almost every snap.  I have never seen a WR this big ever get the kind of separation Adams gets, and I don't mean a little, by a lot.  He is going to do great in a system with YAC because he creates so much separation.

 

My advice is do not sleep on Adams in Oakland.  Yes, Carr is no Rodgers, but the absurd amount of talent Adams possesses gets overlooked and overshadowed by the star power and accolades of Rodgers.  He is literally the only guy in the NFL I would actually rank ahead of Diggs in Route running; he is that good at it despite his size.

 

I highly recommend to everyone watching this short video to see what a beast Adams truly is.  

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ChpyFVagVL1/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D

Edited August 25, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Well not to get the panties in a wad but it's a decent chance Bills end up with their own Cooper Kupp WR in Shakir. 

 

Kid has really put on a show for sure. Very excited to see him this season. 

 

As @Alphadawg7once said, I'm calling it now...Shakir gets his first NFL TD rec against the Rams in season opener.

 

I don't know if he will get his first TD against the Rams or not, but I like the bold prediction and its certainly possible.  

 

I have been saying since the moment he was drafted; this kid is special and reminds me of Kupp.  And it's no coincidence given he has modeled his game after Kupp.  That doesn't mean he automatically will just be as good as Kupp, but this kid has that kind of potential.  

 

I fully expect him to get on the field this year and make his share of plays.  I don't know how much he does or doesn't play in the opener as that will come down to both how much the staff and Allen trust him (seemingly growing every day) as a rookie in his first game, but also the context of the game.  

 

He has a bright future here in Buffalo IMHO.  

[P Riv]

13 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

Thought provoking, great question.  Every QB, every offense, every relationship has its own evolving dynamic and you can't nail it down to a trend IMHO.  Brady had a true #1 for like 2 years?  Manning had a true WR1 and WR1a for years, but he only got one SB trophy and that was a defensive performance.  Chad Johnson was a true #1 with Carson Palmer throwing to him, but they never won anything.  Diggs is great because he's playing up to his contract.  When he stops then we make sure Allen gets immediate help from high picks in the draft.  

13 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

Thought provoking, great question.  Every QB, every offense, every relationship has its own evolving dynamic and you can't nail it down to a trend IMHO.  Brady had a true #1 for like 2 years?  Manning had a true WR1 and WR1a for years, but he only got one SB trophy and that was a defensive performance.  Chad Johnson was a true #1 with Carson Palmer throwing to him, but they never won anything.  Diggs is great because he's playing up to his contract.  When he stops then we make sure Allen gets immediate help from high picks in the draft.