The importance of a true number one WR

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hard disagree with this description...This statement lacks context and very misleading to who Davante Adams really is.  

 

I mean absolutely no disrespect Gunner, but I have to be honest here...saying he only went over 1000 yards 3 times is just a lazy assessment of Adams and the type of player he is and disconnected from the level of player he really is. 

 

He did not even become the true #1 receiver until 2018.  Prior to that, it was Jordy Nelson who was for years Rodgers favorite target.  2017 was the actual first year he led the Packers in receiving with almost 900 yards.  No one had 1000 yards because Rodgers missed the final 9 1/2 weeks injured and Brett Hundley was the QB.  It was also Nelsons final year, who despite playing all but one game had under 500 yards that year.

 

Since 2018, his first season as the #1 WR in GB with a full season of Rodgers, Adams has averaged 1,327 yards a season despite missing an average of almost 2 games a year.  In fact, the only season he did not get to 1000 (missed it by 3 yards at 997) he missed 4 games and was on pace for well over 1300 yards again.  

 

Adams literally embarrasses and abuses defenders on almost every snap.  I have never seen a WR this big ever get the kind of separation Adams gets, and I don't mean a little, by a lot.  He is going to do great in a system with YAC because he creates so much separation.

 

My advice is do not sleep on Adams in Oakland.  Yes, Carr is no Rodgers, but the absurd amount of talent Adams possesses gets overlooked and overshadowed by the star power and accolades of Rodgers.  He is literally the only guy in the NFL I would actually rank ahead of Diggs in Route running; he is that good at it despite his size.

 

I highly recommend to everyone watching this short video to see what a beast Adams truly is.  

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ChpyFVagVL1/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D

 

I just think he is overrated. I think he is a good receiver who looked great with Rodgers. Top 10? Sure. Best receiver in football? Not close. And while I like Carr, I like him more than most, he is a poor man's Tom Brady in terms of style. He is at his best getting the ball out quick to guys for YAC. He is not a great downfield thrower. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by GunnerBill

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

Hill was KC's #1 WR, but he's not their #1 pass catcher. They did not move on from Kelce. 

 

Let's see what happens in GB. Rodgers is already complaining that his WRs suck. 

How predictable was that, he couldn't even keep his mouth shut through pre-season. For me, He is rapidly approaching Tom Brady as the most obnoxious NFL player.

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think he is overrated. I think he is a good receiver who looked great with Rodgers. Top 10? Sure. Best receiver in football? Not close.

 

Who would you consider as the best WR in the league? Who is your #1?

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think he is overrated. I think he is a good receiver who looked great with Rodgers. Top 10? Sure. Best receiver in football? Not close. And while I like Carr, I like him more than most, he is a poor man's Tom Brady in terms of style. He is at his best getting the ball out quick to guys for YAC. He is not a great downfield thrower. 

 

I would suspect if you polled every GM and Coach in the NFL he would be the consensus top pick as the best WR in the league.  Him and Kupp would get the most votes right now without question.  

 

If you watch film on him, he is dominant at every phase of the position.  I am actually stunned to see you call him overrated because the film shows he might actually be underrated.  A lot of people just kind of do a lazy assumption that Rodger's greatness made him, but the film doesn't lie and shows he is arguably the best WR in the NFL.  

Edited August 25, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[julian]

Adams no longer wanted to be there and KC had the luxury of having already won a recent title and still have the leagues best receiving TE.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would suspect if you polled every GM and Coach in the NFL he would be the consensus top pick as the best WR in the league.  Him and Kupp would get the most votes right now without question.  

 

If you watch film on him, he is dominant at every phase of the position.  I am actually stunned to see you call him overrated because the film shows he might actually be underrated.  A lot of people just kind of do a lazy assumption that Rodger's greatness made him, but the film doesn't lie and shows he is arguably the best WR in the NFL.  

 

Oh I know I am in the minority in this view. But believe me I have watched a lot of his tape. I think he is good. He is not the best in the league.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Who would you consider as the best WR in the league? Who is your #1?

 

I'd still put Hill and DHop 1 and 2 in some order. I think Kupp has earned the right to be in that conversation with them. I think Jefferson and Chase talent wise are the next best where you rank might depend on longevity. Then Diggs, AJ Brown, Mike Evans (criminally underrated) and I'd throw Adams in that group. 

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd still put Hill and DHop 1 and 2 in some order. I think Kupp has earned the right to be in that conversation with them. I think Jefferson and Chase talent wise are the next best where you rank might depend on longevity. Then Diggs, AJ Brown, Mike Evans (criminally underrated) and I'd throw Adams in that group. 

 

One you didn't mention is D.K Metcalf. His size and strength along with speed is a very tough WR to defend. Hard not to include him in the convo 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

One you didn't mention is D.K Metcalf. His size and strength along with speed is a very tough WR to defend. Hard not to include him in the convo 

 

I do like DK he is a beast but he basically does one thing he just does it at a super high level. He is a vertical receiver. He is one of the hardest to defend but ironically as an OC I would feel like he almost restricts what I can call. But he is in that top 10 conversation too. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

many people say Diggs isn’t a true #1 WR. 

 

problem solved

😜 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

many people say Diggs isn’t a true #1 WR. 

 

problem solved

😜

 

Those many people would be wrong lol

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

5 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

The Rams just won the Super Bowl on the back of the WR who had the greatest season in NFL history so...

[BullBuchanan]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd still put Hill and DHop 1 and 2 in some order. I think Kupp has earned the right to be in that conversation with them. I think Jefferson and Chase talent wise are the next best where you rank might depend on longevity. Then Diggs, AJ Brown, Mike Evans (criminally underrated) and I'd throw Adams in that group. 

Hill and Hopkins as a 1/2 is a 2-3 years out of date. They've been surpassed. It's very hard to make the argument that Kupp isn't #1 right now and Adams at #2 makes a lot of sense. Hill is closer to the bottom of the top 10 then he is the top, and Hopkins' star has faded fast. Unless he comes back from suspension liek a beast, he might not be int he top 15 conversation anymore.

KC & GB didn't choose to dump their WRs for ***** and gigs. They had no choice because of the big money paid to their QBs. It's a situation the Bills will find themselves in very soon. KC also added Ju-Ju who was once a promising WR1, and may be again with a top 2 QB.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Hill and Hopkins as a 1/2 is a 2-3 years out of date. They've been surpassed. It's very hard to make the argument that Kupp isn't #1 right now and Adams at #2 makes a lot of sense. Hill is closer to the bottom of the top 10 then he is the top, and Hopkins' star has faded fast. Unless he comes back from suspension liek a beast, he might not be int he top 15 conversation anymore.

KC & GB didn't choose to dump their WRs for ***** and gigs. They had no choice because of the big money paid to their QBs. It's a situation the Bills will find themselves in very soon. KC also added Ju-Ju who was once a promising WR1, and may be again with a top 2 QB.

 

Kupp being in that category I can absolutely buy. I wouldn't be anti someone putting Kupp as the #1.  But you are wrong on DHop and Hill.

Edited August 25, 2022 by GunnerBill

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Kupp being in that category I can absolutely buy. I wouldn't be anti someone putting Kupp as the #1.  But you are wrong on DHop and Hill.

I'm really not. Hopkins was setting a pace near career lows last year in most categories but touchdowns before he even got injured. Hill was 7th in the league in yards, 10th in TDs. Every player that was above him deserved to be there and will be again. It isn't to say Hill is a bad player, but he's much closer to the 10th best WR than he is the first and that's just a statistical fact at this point. Given he's playing with one of the worst QBs in the league this year, I'm expecting him to have a massive dropoff. He may still have the name Hill on his jersey, but he won't be the same guy. He's going to outrun Tua's arm and there will be a bunch of gnarly picks that happen as a result.

I think he'll probably be somewhere around WR15 this year, below player like Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and maybe even Gabe Davis.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm really not. Hopkins was setting a pace near career lows last year in most categories but touchdowns before he even got injured. Hill was 7th in the league in yards, 10th in TDs. Every player that was above him deserved to be there and will be again. It isn't to say Hill is a bad player, but he's much closer to the 10th best WR than he is the first and that's just a statistical fact at this point. Given he's playing with one of the worst QBs in the league this year, I'm expecting him to have a massive dropoff. He may still have the name Hill on his jersey, but he won't be the same guy. He's going to outrun Tua's arm and there will be a bunch of gnarly picks that happen as a result.

I think he'll probably be somewhere around WR15 this year, below player like Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and maybe even Gabe Davis.

 

I agree Hill will not be the same player with Tua. Adams will not be the same player with Carr. 

 

And if Deonte Johnson is better than Tyreek Hill we need to shut football down. It is finished

 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Hill will not be the same player with Tua. Adams will not be the same player with Carr. 

 

And if Deonte Johnson is better than Tyreek Hill we need to shut football down. It is finished

 

Why? The kid is a monster. One of the best route runners in the NFL. In his rookie year he led the NFL in separation He had a top 10 season last year despite a washed up Big Ben who finished the year ranked 26th in QBR, 27th in Air Yards/attempt, 21st in completion %, etc. Johnson is elite and with even mildly competent, WR play he should become a top 5 WR.

[djp14150]

7 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

If they told you to jump off a bridge…..??

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd still put Hill and DHop 1 and 2 in some order. I think Kupp has earned the right to be in that conversation with them. I think Jefferson and Chase talent wise are the next best where you rank might depend on longevity. Then Diggs, AJ Brown, Mike Evans (criminally underrated) and I'd throw Adams in that group. 

 

Not to pile on here, but there isn't any other real interesting convos going on right hahaha. 

 

But Hill being one of the top 2 WR's in the NFL is just not accurate, and he more closely mirrors Amari Cooper in production than he does any of the top 5 guys. 

 

Do you know how many times Hill has broken 100 yards in a game each of the past 3 seasons?  Just 8 games out of those 42 games he has topped 100 yards while playing with Mahomes on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  Adams on the other hand, had 8 games in 2021 alone with over 100 yards and averages close to that a season. 

 

Like Amari, Hill has s a couple of very big games that make his season total look pretty (yet never as good as Adams totals) and a lot of other games where he doesn't make a huge impact.  Case in point, 43% of his yards and 60% of his TD's last year came in just 3 games.  And this is par for the course annually with Hill.  He had 8 games last year where he had under 65 yards and no TD, most of which were under 50 yards. 

 

Adams on the other hand has played in 42 games the last 3 years and has 100 yards or more in 21 of them.  Thats literally half the games he has played in.  He is consistently a beast throughout the season and that is what he does pretty much every year since becoming a #1 WR. 

 

Hopkins is coming off a season where he was ranked 31st in yards per route run, never had a 100 yard game, and only had a 20% target share which was 35th amongst WR's.  In other words, he was a far cry from the dominant take over WR he had been when he was easily a top 2 WR in the past. 

 

He was still very good in the redzone with 8 TD's, but he didn't have the same impact on the field overall indicative of a top 2 WR.  And being 30 and having a PED suspension, there are legit questions now about whether or not physically he can get back to where he was when he was a top 2 WR.  His days as a top 2 WR IMHO are behind him.   

 

1 hour ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

One you didn't mention is D.K Metcalf. His size and strength along with speed is a very tough WR to defend. Hard not to include him in the convo 

 

I love DK and wanted the Bills so badly to draft him and we instead took Ford.  But, at the end of the day, DK doesn't have the same route tree as the other guys who are in the top 5, even though he is elite at what he does best.  

 

18 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Hill and Hopkins as a 1/2 is a 2-3 years out of date. They've been surpassed. It's very hard to make the argument that Kupp isn't #1 right now and Adams at #2 makes a lot of sense. Hill is closer to the bottom of the top 10 then he is the top, and Hopkins' star has faded fast. Unless he comes back from suspension liek a beast, he might not be int he top 15 conversation anymore.

KC & GB didn't choose to dump their WRs for ***** and gigs. They had no choice because of the big money paid to their QBs. It's a situation the Bills will find themselves in very soon. KC also added Ju-Ju who was once a promising WR1, and may be again with a top 2 QB.

 

Agreed

 

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Kupp being in that category I can absolutely buy. I wouldn't be anti someone putting Kupp as the #1.  But you are wrong on DHop and Hill.

 

Agree, Kupp is absolutely in the top 2 WR's right now, but he is not wrong on Dhop and Hill, he is actually fairly accurate.  Hill is certainly top 10, (where is subjective) but he is not top 5 for reasons I already stated.  DHop as I already explained at 30 is now coming off injuries, the worst year of his career, a PED suspension, and has a lot to prove before he can regain top 5 status.  

 

For me, top 5 today is pretty clear and probably easily the consensus...and in no particular order: Adams, Kupp, Jefferson, Diggs, and Chase.  Former top 5 guys looking to rebound back into the top 5 are Hopkins and Thomas, but both have a lot to prove to get back into those convos.  Especially given the talent level of the top 5 today.   

 

The next consensus next 5 is more debatable, but I think in no particular order 4 of the guys are Hill, Deebo, Hopkins, and Evans (all in no particular order).  That final spot is harder to narrow down as I think several WR's could make a case...guys like K. Allen, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Lamb and potentially Michael Thomas if he comes back stong this season.  Some young guys could be knocking on that door too who are going to all see significant QB upgrades this season for the first time in their careers...guys like McLaurin, DJ Moore, Sutton, and Jeudy.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Hill will not be the same player with Tua. Adams will not be the same player with Carr. 

 

And if Deonte Johnson is better than Tyreek Hill we need to shut football down. It is finished

 

 

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Why? The kid is a monster. One of the best route runners in the NFL. In his rookie year he led the NFL in separation He had a top 10 season last year despite a washed up Big Ben who finished the year ranked 26th in QBR, 27th in Air Yards/attempt, 21st in completion %, etc. Johnson is elite and with even mildly competent, WR play he should become a top 5 WR.

 

My honest opinion is that Diontae Johnson might be the most underrated WR in the game right now.  He is a lot better than people give him credit for.  I watched him a lot last year having him in fantasy and I was actually stunned at just how good he really is.  Today, I would probably throw him in the top 15.  I need to see more before I can feel like he has a top 10 case.  

 

In no particular order, here is my top 15.

Top 5:  Adams, Kupp, Diggs, Chase, Jefferson

6-10:  Evans, Hill, Deebo, Hopkins, Lamb

11-15:  Metcalf, AJ Brown, Allen, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson

 

I will say though, there are several WR's who also all have cases for that 11-15 range, including Thomas, Amari, Moore, OBJ, etc, etc.  

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

I do know how important the Outside Depth WR#3 is.  I'm not sure about the #1.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not to pile on here, but there isn't any other real interesting convos going on right hahaha. 

 

But Hill being one of the top 2 WR's in the NFL is just not accurate, and he more closely mirrors Amari Cooper in production than he does any of the top 5 guys. 

 

Do you know how many times Hill has broken 100 yards in a game each of the past 3 seasons?  Just 8 games out of those 42 games he has topped 100 yards while playing with Mahomes on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  Adams on the other hand, had 8 games in 2021 alone with over 100 yards and averages close to that a season. 

 

Like Amari, Hill has s a couple of very big games that make his season total look pretty (yet never as good as Adams totals) and a lot of other games where he doesn't make a huge impact.  Case in point, 43% of his yards and 60% of his TD's last year came in just 3 games.  And this is par for the course annually with Hill.  He had 8 games last year where he had under 65 yards and no TD, most of which were under 50 yards. 

 

Adams on the other hand has played in 42 games the last 3 years and has 100 yards or more in 21 of them.  Thats literally half the games he has played in.  He is consistently a beast throughout the season and that is what he does pretty much every year since becoming a #1 WR. 

 

Hopkins is coming off a season where he was ranked 31st in yards per route run, never had a 100 yard game, and only had a 20% target share which was 35th amongst WR's.  In other words, he was a far cry from the dominant take over WR he had been when he was easily a top 2 WR in the past. 

 

He was still very good in the redzone with 8 TD's, but he didn't have the same impact on the field overall indicative of a top 2 WR.  And being 30 and having a PED suspension, there are legit questions now about whether or not physically he can get back to where he was when he was a top 2 WR.  His days as a top 2 WR IMHO are behind him.   

 

 

I love DK and wanted the Bills so badly to draft him and we instead took Ford.  But, at the end of the day, DK doesn't have the same route tree as the other guys who are in the top 5, even though he is elite at what he does best.  

 

 

Agreed

 

 

Agree, Kupp is absolutely in the top 2 WR's right now, but he is not wrong on Dhop and Hill, he is actually fairly accurate.  Hill is certainly top 10, (where is subjective) but he is not top 5 for reasons I already stated.  DHop as I already explained at 30 is now coming off injuries, the worst year of his career, a PED suspension, and has a lot to prove before he can regain top 5 status.  

 

For me, top 5 today is pretty clear and probably easily the consensus...and in no particular order: Adams, Kupp, Jefferson, Diggs, and Chase.  Former top 5 guys looking to rebound back into the top 5 are Hopkins and Thomas, but both have a lot to prove to get back into those convos.  Especially given the talent level of the top 5 today.   

 

The next consensus next 5 is more debatable, but I think in no particular order 4 of the guys are Hill, Deebo, Hopkins, and Evans (all in no particular order).  That final spot is harder to narrow down as I think several WR's could make a case...guys like K. Allen, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Lamb and potentially Michael Thomas if he comes back stong this season.  Some young guys could be knocking on that door too who are going to all see significant QB upgrades this season for the first time in their careers...guys like McLaurin, DJ Moore, Sutton, and Jeudy.  

 

I just think you are wrong. I will concede we might never see DHop again be what he was after the injury and suspension but the issue last year was not DHop. It was Kyler.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think you are wrong. I will concede we might never see DHop again be what he was after the injury and suspension but the issue last year was not DHop. It was Kyler.

 

All good, but the math, statistics, production and consistency over the past 4 years says I am right.  Film does too   But all good my man, agree to disagree, been a fun convo none the less 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

There are a ton of ways to illustrate the importance of a #1 WR in a matchup league like the NFL.

 

But the fact that there were 5 #1 WR types on the field in the Super Bowl illustrates how valuable top receivers have become.

 

Kupp, OBJ, Chase, Higgins and Boyd.

 

Boyd is the least regarded of the bunch and he had over 800 yards and didn't drop a single pass in the entire regular season as the 3rd option for Joe Burrow.

 

Jalen Ramsey is as good as it gets in man coverage and he got run ragged by all the stud receiver talent he had to face in the playoffs and SB.

 

The next level down doesn't do that.

[billybrew1]

14 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

IDK, but I for one, feel both GB and KC will pay for dumping their stars when they meet up with great teams. For KC, that is going to be about every week. Look at their schedule, talk about tough…. No way they win the division in my opinion but I do think they’ll be a dangerous wild card….. GB will probably win home field again with their super easy schedule, but won’t make it to the show yet again. If they somehow do make it, the AFC will trounce them.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, billybrew1 said:

IDK, but I for one, feel both GB and KC will pay for dumping their stars when they meet up with great teams. For KC, that is going to be about every week. Look at their schedule, talk about tough…. No way they win the division in my opinion but I do think they’ll be a dangerous wild card….. GB will probably win home field again with their super easy schedule, but won’t make it to the show yet again. If they somehow do make it, the AFC will trounce them.

KC Signed Ju Ju - I expect him to go over 1000. They won't miss hill much, if at all. GB on the other hand was in bad shape even WITH Adams. They are a stone cold lock to not win the Super Bowl.

Edited August 26, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good, but the math, statistics, production and consistency over the past 4 years says I am right.  Film does too   But all good my man, agree to disagree, been a fun convo none the less 

 

Think you are wrong on the film. I don't believe on judging WRs just on stats and never have. I think the film backs me up.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think you are wrong on the film. I don't believe on judging WRs just on stats and never have. I think the film backs me up.

Again, all good, we agree to disagree.  I’m just shocked because the film on Adams is incredible.  He has the best release off the line in the NFL and is easily one of the best route runners in the league.