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Cynthia Frelund NFL 2022 simulation has Bills winning the AFC #1 seed

Big Turk

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Big Turk

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1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

 

The team is stacked. They need to learn how to deal with the hype and play with a target on their back. Something they struggled with last year, hoping that experience and end of the season finish after the TB game was the realization they needed to know how they need to approach every game...

 

There will be no easy games, everyone is gunning for them again this year maybe even more considering the hype surrounding them.

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Warcodered Hall of Famer

Warcodered

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4 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

If that's the cost of being a well built and well run organization I'll take that deal.

Edited by Warcodered
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SlimShady'sSpaceForce Hall of Famer

SlimShady'sSpaceForce

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13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Bills top AFC with 11.6 expected wins. 

 

Each game was simulated 75K times...

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-win-total-projections-afc-bills-top-conference-ravens-win-afc-north


DOOMED!!!

season 1 GIF by Star Wars

 

Last season in 100 simulations —— the Bills beat the Jags 87%. 
 

How’d that work out?

 

Edited by SlimShady'sSpaceForce
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TOboy RFA

TOboy

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9 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

Try to look at it this way…where did being disregarded, disrespected, and an afterthought get us?

 

Perhaps this is the juju we need? 

 

 

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Big Turk Hall of Famer

Big Turk

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10 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


DOOMED!!!

season 1 GIF by Star Wars

 

Last season in 100 simulations —— the Bills beat the Jags 87%. 
 

How’d that work out?

 

 

They should have ran 74.9K more

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RalphWilson'sNewWar RFA

RalphWilson'sNewWar

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21 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!


Your not totally off.

 

2021 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

2020 - Chiefs were #1 but it was Bucs #4 who won it.

 

2019 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

So who knows.  In the end it’s really just about ego and humans who feel they need to have control over every situation.

 

 

 

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The Dean Hall of Famer

The Dean

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32 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

 

6 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:


Your not totally off.

 

2021 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

2020 - Chiefs were #1 but it was Bucs #4 who won it.

 

2019 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

So who knows.  In the end it’s really just about ego and humans who feel they need to have control over every situation.

 

 

 

 

 

First of all, neither this article nor any other I've read says "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" .

 

Many are picking the Bills to be the favorites. At the moment the Bills are the betting favorites. And this post is about the chances in a computer simulation. That's all.  If you interpret them as guarantees, then yes, there is an issue. But it is on your end, I think.

 

None of the preseason crap means anything once the season starts. Too many things are unpredictable, not the least of which are injuries. Now if you are saying you prefer when the Bills fly under the radar and could live without the crazy hype. Well, me too. But that's the price of dealing with success in the NFL. 

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ChevyVanMiller Veteran

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8 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

I think Von Miller will help greatly in keeping them focused. Did you hear what he did last year in LA?

 

After being acquired by the Rams he had a replica of the Lombardi Trophy made and placed in the team’s dressing room. Next to it he placed a notebook and challenged each player daily to write down what steps they were taking to make sure they would have the real Lombardi at the end of the season.

 

You know the ending. I suspect that same replica will be in the dressing room at One Bills Drive this fall.

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nucci Hall of Famer

nucci

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10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

We criticize other fans for being confident yet most here think we'll breeze through the regular season and playoffs. We have a new OV and OL Coach. Things will be a bit different this year

1 hour ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

I think Von Miller will help greatly in keeping them focused. Did you hear what he did last year in LA?

 

After being acquired by the Rams he had a replica of the Lombardi Trophy made and placed in the team’s dressing room. Next to it he placed a notebook and challenged each player daily to write down what steps they were taking to make sure they would have the real Lombardi at the end of the season.

 

You know the ending. I suspect that same replica will be in the dressing room at One Bills Drive this fall.

I thought the same going in to the playoffs last season

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SlimShady'sSpaceForce Hall of Famer

SlimShady'sSpaceForce

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6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I got them winning  the Super Bowl  at 13-2.


this is the time warp ahead 

 

With a bit of a mind flip
You're into the time slip
And nothing can ever be the same
You're spaced out on sensation
Like you're under sedation

Let's do the Time Warp again
Let's do the Time Warp again

 

13-2?  
 

it’s been how many years since a 15 game season?


 

 

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Matt_In_NH All Pro

Matt_In_NH

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10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

 

What do you want to do, go back to having a crappy team that Bills fans try to find ways to pump up and are constantly all butt hurt about not getting "any respect"?   Great expectations comes with having a great team, I would have it no other way!   Dont hear much about how the NFL hates small markets and fixes everything against them anymore which is what I find annoying.

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GunnerBill Hall of Famer

GunnerBill

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14 minutes ago, 13 Second Prevent Defense said:

 

What do you want to do, go back to having a crappy team that Bills fans try to find ways to pump up and are constantly all butt hurt about not getting "any respect"?   Great expectations comes with having a great team, I would have it no other way!   Dont hear much about how the NFL hates small markets and fixes everything against them anymore which is what I find annoying.

 

Bills fans don't just have chips on their shoulders.... they have the whole sack of potatoes.... hate it when people don't make them favourites and hate it when people do. 

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Bill from NYC Hall of Famer

Bill from NYC

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1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


this is the time warp ahead 

 

With a bit of a mind flip
You're into the time slip
And nothing can ever be the same
You're spaced out on sensation
Like you're under sedation

Let's do the Time Warp again
Let's do the Time Warp again

 

13-2?  
 

it’s been how many years since a 15 game season?


 

 

No, 13-2 odds. 6.5 to 1. Come down from space. ;) 

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LeGOATski Hall of Famer

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1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

That is odd cause I have them going 3-3 after week 6 with TBD imploding and calling for McBean's head. 

Yep, it's a tough schedule to start. People are gonna be freaking out like last year.

2 hours ago, wjag said:

 

meh..  she's on the payroll...

Isn't she partnered with multiple teams? She works for the NFL and partners with teams for her stat stuff on the side.

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Jay_Fixit Veteran

Jay_Fixit

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15 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

Superstitions.

 

 

Lol.

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Big Turk Hall of Famer

Big Turk

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5 hours ago, otagoyellow said:

ESPN ran a simulation 20,000 times last year that had us winning the whole thing as well. Maybe the extra 55K sims will finally push us over the edge... :) 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/09/espn-2021-nfl-season-simulation-buffalo-bills-super-bowl-win-josh-allen/

 

Must have upgraded the computer so it runs in the same amount of time 😂

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Nihilarian Veteran

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:20 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

I sort of agree.

 

The offensive line...is it as good as it could be? It still gives me pause for concern. One concussion away from losing the center? That Jags game last season showed us that that Buffalo offense can be shut down, 6 points to a 3-14 team with the 20th ranked defense 28th in points allowed?

 

The defense...Alas, they were simply not as good as the #1 stats show as they faced many backup QBs, rookie QBs and piss poor offenses in 2021. (Washington 7-10)(Houston 4-13)(2x NY Jets 4-13) (LOST to 3-14 Jags!)(Carolina 5-12)(Atlanta 7-10)

They were smoked badly by the Colts and their run game, 46 rushes for 264 yards. 4 TDs. Speaking of that, do we know for certain that the Bills run defense improved? 

The Patriots with a rookie QB beat them once. The Bills defense gave up 552 yards of offense to the Chiefs in that last game.
 

Offense...we also don't know if the new OC will be an improvement as he has some huge shoes to fill. Daboll in his last seven or so games was doing an amazing job. That Patriots playoff game was one for the ages! 

 

2021 record and Cynthia's 2022 total win projection

 

*@Rams, SB winner 12-5...11.5 projection

*Titans, 12-5...8.8 projection

*@Miami, 9-8...8.8 projection

@Baltimore, 8-9...9.0 projection

*Pittsburgh, 9-7...7.8 projection

*@Kansas, 12-5...10.4 projection

BYE

*Green Bay, 13-4...10.9 projection

@NY Jets, 4-13...7.2 projection

Minnesota, 8-9...8.7 projection

Cleveland, 8-9...8.8 projection

@Detroit, 3-13...7.4 projection

*@New England, 10-7...8-7 projection

NY Jets, 4-13...7.2 projection

*Miami, 9-8...8.8 projection

@Chicago, 6-11...6.1 projection

*@Cincinnati, 10-7...8.9 projection

*New England, 10-7...8.7 projection

 

* denotes a team with a winning record. 

 

Buffalo, 11.6 projection. 

 

Whoa, those first six games.

 

Will the Buffalo secondary be up to the task against Cooper Kupp & Co? Will the Buffalo run defense be able to stop Derrick Henry? Many changes...gonna be interesting. 

 

 

 

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machine gun kelly All Pro

machine gun kelly

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On 5/13/2022 at 8:28 AM, nucci said:

We criticize other fans for being confident yet most here think we'll breeze through the regular season and playoffs. We have a new OV and OL Coach. Things will be a bit different this year

I thought the same going in to the playoffs last season

OV?  Add and L and an E, and you have , love OV, that great delicious pleasure (and so on, I loved that commercial as a kid and enjoyed far too many in College at Mulligans Brick Bar).  
 

Nucc, I’m just kidding as I know you meant OC.

 

This simulation stuff is nothing more than the Power Rankings that are meaningless.  Great, the NFL pundits think we’re great.  If that helped with more nationally televised games, that’s great for us people who moved away from Buffalo.

 

Im not worried about it, and if anyone can keep this team grounded McD can do it.  The team last year read their press clippings a little too much when we lost to the Jags and started to get our swagger back when we came back against Tampa.  We were on a mission after that game, and the destruction of the Cheats twice was a statement after the wind loss.

 

Besides Allen will not let this team get too full of themselves.  He probably learned his lesson last year.

Edited by machine gun kelly
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julian Veteran

julian

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Last years Jags game will always be in the back pocket of those trying to prevent getting hurt from unobtained expectations.

 

 I invite that pain, bring it on. I hated the previous two decades of meaningless games and no pressure of expectations.

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Motorin' Veteran

Motorin'

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On 5/13/2022 at 9:56 AM, nedboy7 said:

TBD imploding and calling for McBean's head. 

 

I have that happening after the first punt of the season. Unless Arazia hits one 80 yards. In which case I have that happening after the first turnover of the season. 

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