Boogie Basham optimism

[Airseven]

And I recall a lot of optimism about Epenesa last summer..

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

AJ was weird because the hype spilled into camp, into preseason, and then into the start of the season. His Miami performance was one of the best performances by a Bills pass rusher that I could remember.

 

Then it just went quiet. Not a ton of snaps so it’s hard to really gauge, but some games he played a decent amount.

 

 I’m not really down on AJ, he’s shown signs. Bills use a very heavy rotation so maybe it’s difficult to develop as a pass rusher. 

 

Yeah it was weird how he just kind of lost snaps even after showing some real promise early, and I kept wondering if that had something to do with Groot starting on the opposite side.  Like they wanted to get some vet presence more on the field with Groot.  Then again, maybe he was losing ground in practice.  I dont know, but he seemed like he was headed towards a heft snap count, but just didnt happen as the season progressed.

 

[LEBills]

Basham is a funny player because he is pretty athletic (9.38 RAS) despite definitely carrying a little extra weight. He is also much stubbier 6’3’’, sub 33 inch arms than the outside pass rushers we normally prefer like AJE and Groot. 
 

He is definitely an effort and diagnosis player, he isn’t great at winning initially off the edge but is pretty good at diagnosing the play after structure starts to break and going to where the play is going to be.

 

Last year when they drafted him they mentioned him playing a little on the inside as well. If he can convert some of his body fat to muscle and keep his weight he may be able to handle it inside in pass rushing scenarios.
 

Im actually pretty hopeful for him this year, though I agree with others who have said they see him as potentially good but likely not great pass rusher.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah it was weird how he just kind of lost snaps even after showing some real promise early, and I kept wondering if that had something to do with Groot starting on the opposite side.  Like they wanted to get some vet presence more on the field with Groot.  Then again, maybe he was losing ground in practice.  I dont know, but he seemed like he was headed towards a heft snap count, but just didnt happen as the season progressed.

 

I don't know for sure either, but seems like I recall he got injured too? I may be mistaken 

[Matt_In_NH]

Hopefully this does not go the same way the Epenesa optimism went last year

[Buffalo_Stampede]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah it was weird how he just kind of lost snaps even after showing some real promise early, and I kept wondering if that had something to do with Groot starting on the opposite side.  Like they wanted to get some vet presence more on the field with Groot.  Then again, maybe he was losing ground in practice.  I dont know, but he seemed like he was headed towards a heft snap count, but just didnt happen as the season progressed.

 

We had so many DEs last year. I’m sure our issues vs the run didn’t help his cause. 
 

 

11 minutes ago, 13 Second Prevent Defense said:

Hopefully this does not go the same way the Epenesa optimism went last year

Again I don’t think fans are looking at it right. We had Hughes, Addison, Rousseau as the top 3 DEs. So at best he was the 4th DE. Then we still had Obada and Basham.

 

I think the rotation changes based on opponent. But it’s still a heavy rotation.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We had so many DEs last year. I’m sure our issues vs the run didn’t help his cause. 
 

 

Again I don’t think fans are looking at it right. We had Hughes, Addison, Rousseau as the top 3 DEs. So at best he was the 4th DE. Then we still had Obada and Basham.

 

I think the rotation changes based on opponent. But it’s still a heavy rotation.

 

Good point about the run issues, that very well might have been a big factor

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Its not a beauty contest.  I thought Basham played hard and fast whenever he was on the field.  Which was not a whole lot.  I think he has solid upside to be a strong contributor in the D Line rotation.  D linemen don't need to look like Tony Gonzalez or Calvin Johnson.  (which is where Epenesa was heading.)  Put some bulk on these guys and let them fire off the ball.

 

That is my point. I think drafting big ends then trying to make them speed rushers is not a wise strategy. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

his draft slot doesn’t indicate elite talent either… I think the key to the optimism is managing what that expectation is. Viable rotational guy could be optimism after being inactive, right? It’s a tricky word for the purpose of discussion here 

 

I think people put way too much into "draft slot" personally.  He was graded as a late first to second round pick heading into the draft.  I think the fundamental flaw in your post here is you said his draft slot doesn't indicate "elite talent" either.  I think if you said he wasn't an elite prospect, as in top 10 or 15 guy it would be more accurate where those guys are seen as a higher success probability. 

 

But there are plenty of guys who go outside the top 15, outside the first round, even mid rounds who have elite talent potential, but there are just some other things that cause them to slide a bit.  Sometimes, its because they have a low floor, or have some holes that need coached up.  But, I wouldn't say a players drat slot indicates wether or not he has elite talent potential.  

 

Case in point...nothing about Brady coming out of college (especially coming off what I believe is still considered the worst combine performance for a QB in terms of athletic traits in history) was indicated he had elite ability, yet hes widely considered the GOAT now.  Not saying by any means Boogie has that kind of potential, just saying I think its a false conclusion to base a players talent potential based on draft slot.  

 

Another example...Shakir this year...getting him in the 5th round, I do think he has elite talent potential where he could develop into one of the best slot WRs in football.  So much about his tape reminds me of Kupp in how he uses his hands, controls his body, runs his routes etc.  And he has some of Deebo or AJ Brown in him after the catch too where he runs with strength and agility.  Doesn't mean he will, but I do think he has elite talent potential despite a 2nd/3rd round grade heading into draft and an actual 5th round draft selection.  

Edited May 11, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[FilthyBeast]

There's a reason why Beane drafted him in the 2nd round despite taking Groot just a round earlier. Guy was a serious force in college and truly BPA when we picked.

 

Personally I'll be very disappointed if Groot and/or Basham don't show something and have a big impact this year especially with all the attention Oliver and Miller will command. Add to the fact they were both high draft picks and we'll essentially be starting over at DE once again soon since Miller is obviously just stopgap these next few years

[BuffaloBill]

The Bills need two of the three (Groot, Basham and Espinosa) to play solidly given the heavy emphasis on line rotation and the draft capital devoted to them. Yes, in a perfect world it will be three for three but draft probabilities would suggest this is highly unlikely.  A better, more realistic scenario, is that two of the three play well an alone of those two is a “stud” player.

 

Time will tell but the Bills will have paid very dearly through draft capital if they do not get better production out of the group.

[TBBills]

3 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Basham had just one sack fewer than Rousseau despite playing less than half the number of snaps (531-201)

 

I think there's a realistic chance that Boogie could end up being the better player in the long run.

I see the problem with your statement.

[Matt_In_NH]

52 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We had so many DEs last year. I’m sure our issues vs the run didn’t help his cause. 
 

 

Again I don’t think fans are looking at it right. We had Hughes, Addison, Rousseau as the top 3 DEs. So at best he was the 4th DE. Then we still had Obada and Basham.

 

I think the rotation changes based on opponent. But it’s still a heavy rotation.

Understand the rotation completely.  There was a lot of optimism on Epenesa last offseason/preseason.  He was amazing in the Miami game and then largely was not that noticeable.  His production last year did not match the expectation given the amount his tires were getting pumped up in the local media.

[Logic]

When it's all said and done, here's what I expect with our trio of young defensive ends:

Greg Rousseau will have a long career as a good edge setter and run defender who can chip in 6-8 sacks per year, but will never be a dominant edge bending pass rusher. He'll be somewhere between Shaq Lawson and Calais Campbell.

Boogie Basham will also be a 1st and 2nd down base defensive end. His biggest pass rush impact will come as an interior defender on 3rd downs. His versatility and run stopping ability will allow him to stick around the league for years, but he'll never be a big time, impact pass rusher.

AJ Epenesa will be a career journeyman who never lives up the potential of his draft pedigree.

I wish I had a more optimistic outlook. Rousseau and Basham will both be good players, I think, but just not the type of franchise pass rushers we're hoping for. Epenesa was miscast from the start. He should have been drafted by a 3-4 defense to play 5T. The Bills selecting a power rusher and then having him shed a bunch of weight to try to become a speed rusher was a foolish decision, and ruined whatever chance Epenesa had to be impactful.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah it was weird how he just kind of lost snaps even after showing some real promise early, and I kept wondering if that had something to do with Groot starting on the opposite side.  Like they wanted to get some vet presence more on the field with Groot.  Then again, maybe he was losing ground in practice.  I dont know, but he seemed like he was headed towards a heft snap count, but just didnt happen as the season progressed.

 

 

They have tried to turn AJ into a speed rusher. That is the right DE in their system. When they drafted him he profiled more as a power rusher and edge setter which is the left DE in their system. It is why the evaluation on him is so difficult.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I really like Boogie and his potential.  I felt like he flashed some real potential last year despite limited reps.  What is going to be interesting to me this camp is the battle for snaps between AJE and Boogie.  

 

Last camp, AJE was the talk of camp, but we still had Addison and Hughes, plus a first round pick in Groot who actually took over as a starter week 1.  So it left AJE where he had been since getting here, in a backup rotation.  

 

Now with Mario and Hughes gone, I am really excited to see how our young guys play this camp in Groot, AJE, and Boogie.  One thing I want to point out about AJE is that its too early to write him off like some around here have been.  Colts wrote off Hughes, and that was a terrible mistake.  So, I am for one excited to see this battle of the two guys probably getting over looked the most by fans in AJE and Boogie.  I feel like one, or maybe even both, could surprise this year if they can prove they deserve more snaps.  

I don’t think Epenesa and Basham are jags. I just think they need to improve.  Perhaps they A- improve enough to help us win long term and secure a 2nd contract with us;  B- don’t improve very much and aren’t much more impactful than they were last year or C-  somewhere in between A and B
 

Epenesa had a few flashes of “wow” vs the fins.  Maybe a few flashes in preseason.  I think it’s more mental with him.  He has issues maintaining his lane and going out way to wide and giving the QB extra room to work with.  
 

Basham impressed me with his ability to be near the action. His get off is meh.  But he battles and is a clean up guy.  Similar to Rousseau in that most of his sacks will be after the Qb has been flushed and they swarm. He needs a Von Miller to get the qb off their spot to make his biggest impact imo. 
 

Another year in the weight room and some advice from Von will certainly help.  It’s a roll of the guessing if they turn out to be A, B or C but I’d lean toward C.  I’m just hoping that they improve enough to get us a ring.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think people put way too much into "draft slot" personally.  He was graded as a late first to second round pick heading into the draft.  I think the fundamental flaw in your post here is you said his draft slot doesn't indicate "elite talent" either.  I think if you said he wasn't an elite prospect, as in top 10 or 15 guy it would be more accurate where those guys are seen as a higher success probability. 

 

But there are plenty of guys who go outside the top 15, outside the first round, even mid rounds who have elite talent potential, but there are just some other things that cause them to slide a bit.  Sometimes, its because they have a low floor, or have some holes that need coached up.  But, I wouldn't say a players drat slot indicates wether or not he has elite talent potential.  

 

Case in point...nothing about Brady coming out of college (especially coming off what I believe is still considered the worst combine performance for a QB in terms of athletic traits in history) was indicated he had elite ability, yet hes widely considered the GOAT now.  Not saying by any means Boogie has that kind of potential, just saying I think its a false conclusion to base a players talent potential based on draft slot.  

 

Another example...Shakir this year...getting him in the 5th round, I do think he has elite talent potential where he could develop into one of the best slot WRs in football.  So much about his tape reminds me of Kupp in how he uses his hands, controls his body, runs his routes etc.  And he has some of Deebo or AJ Brown in him after the catch too where he runs with strength and agility.  Doesn't mean he will, but I do think he has elite talent potential despite a 2nd/3rd round grade heading into draft and an actual 5th round draft selection.  

Interesting points Alpha.  One player that comes to mind is Kyle Williams.  5th round pick out of LSU.  Was a tremendous DT for us.  One of the best in the league for a long time.  Why did he not get drafted til the 5th round?  Granted he was short for DT's at about 6'1.  But obviously he outplayed his "draft slot" by a considerable margin.  And that was great for us.  Obviously the draft is not a science.  Some you hit on.  Some you miss on.  

 

If I was a talent evaluator.  I am watching guys film.  Are they making plays?  Do they play tough and fast?  Not worried so much about the measurables.  A fast 40 time is nice.  But what is their game speed?  And then what is their makeup.  Do they love football..  Does winning matter to them?  Are they sharp and smart in their understanding of the game of football?  It really should not be as hard as the talking heads like to make it in evaluating talent.  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think people put way too much into "draft slot" personally.  He was graded as a late first to second round pick heading into the draft.  I think the fundamental flaw in your post here is you said his draft slot doesn't indicate "elite talent" either.  I think if you said he wasn't an elite prospect, as in top 10 or 15 guy it would be more accurate where those guys are seen as a higher success probability. 

 

But there are plenty of guys who go outside the top 15, outside the first round, even mid rounds who have elite talent potential, but there are just some other things that cause them to slide a bit.  Sometimes, its because they have a low floor, or have some holes that need coached up.  But, I wouldn't say a players drat slot indicates wether or not he has elite talent potential.  

 

Case in point...nothing about Brady coming out of college (especially coming off what I believe is still considered the worst combine performance for a QB in terms of athletic traits in history) was indicated he had elite ability, yet hes widely considered the GOAT now.  Not saying by any means Boogie has that kind of potential, just saying I think its a false conclusion to base a players talent potential based on draft slot.  

 

Another example...Shakir this year...getting him in the 5th round, I do think he has elite talent potential where he could develop into one of the best slot WRs in football.  So much about his tape reminds me of Kupp in how he uses his hands, controls his body, runs his routes etc.  And he has some of Deebo or AJ Brown in him after the catch too where he runs with strength and agility.  Doesn't mean he will, but I do think he has elite talent potential despite a 2nd/3rd round grade heading into draft and an actual 5th round draft selection.  

 

I've mentioned this in other threads, but will keep repeating just to provide perspective:

 

He was ranked and drafted later than Chris Kelsay. So set expectations accordingly.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

If he has his weight under control why was he at Poutine and Cream on Hertel last week 😏

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So they drafted another college power rusher then tried to turn him into a speed rusher, is that what we are supposed to take from the "weight under control" line? If they did, then one of Boogie or AJE better kick on. 

 

Yeah we seem to have heard this before

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is my point. I think drafting big ends then trying to make them speed rushers is not a wise strategy. 

I think we need to let boogie play.....its the best way to determine whether or not he belongs.   I am hopeful that the release of Obada opened up some snaps for Boogie

[SectionC3]

47 minutes ago, Logic said:

When it's all said and done, here's what I expect with our trio of young defensive ends:

Greg Rousseau will have a long career as a good edge setter and run defender who can chip in 6-8 sacks per year, but will never be a dominant edge bending pass rusher. He'll be somewhere between Shaq Lawson and Calais Campbell.

Boogie Basham will also be a 1st and 2nd down base defensive end. His biggest pass rush impact will come as an interior defender on 3rd downs. His versatility and run stopping ability will allow him to stick around the league for years, but he'll never be a big time, impact pass rusher.

AJ Epenesa will be a career journeyman who never lives up the potential of his draft pedigree.

I wish I had a more optimistic outlook. Rousseau and Basham will both be good players, I think, but just not the type of franchise pass rushers we're hoping for. Epenesa was miscast from the start. He should have been drafted by a 3-4 defense to play 5T. The Bills selecting a power rusher and then having him shed a bunch of weight to try to become a speed rusher was a foolish decision, and ruined whatever chance Epenesa had to be impactful.

 

I agree with all of this.  To my eyes, Groot has a little Mario Williams in him.  A big, long dude who plays LDE and who can get some sacks simply by virtue of his reach.  Basham doesn’t have the body type to bend—at least not that I’ve seen.  I’m a little more optimistic on Epenesa.  But, at least to my eyes, it looks like they had him overdo the weight loss last year and he was a little too light.  

[Alphadawg7]

45 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've mentioned this in other threads, but will keep repeating just to provide perspective:

 

He was ranked and drafted later than Chris Kelsay. So set expectations accordingly.

No disrespect, literally has no relevance of any kind to Boogie or his potential.

[Big Blitz]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

For the film watchers… is there a reason NOT to be optimistic? Or is it that based on him being buried in the rotation/relegated to inactive sometimes?

 

 

2nd round pick.  Beane obviously loved him they couldn't run fast enough to the podium to pick him.  He flashed a few times.  We knew he was a bit of a project.  

 

So yes I can buy he is going to make an impact.  They overhauled the entire D line and showed zero urgency in brining in another DE to replace Addison and Hughes after signing Miller.  Who we know isn't playing more then 60% of the snaps a game.  I think that's a safe bet.  

[GunnerBill]

Personally I still think Boogie was drafted too early, but accept the consensus on him was higher than I was. 

[DrDawkinstein]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No disrespect, literally has no relevance of any kind to Boogie or his potential.

 

None taken. Nothing we say here has any relevance to anything in real life!

[BillsShredder83]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So they drafted another college power rusher then tried to turn him into a speed rusher, is that what we are supposed to take from the "weight under control" line? If they did, then one of Boogie or AJE better kick on. 

 

Boogie was fat though, he absolutely needed to get that under control. Def hoping they didn't go full Epenesa with him. Never go full Epenesa

[BADOLBILZ]

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I'm ok with giving Miller/Groot 60+% of the snaps and toning down the rotation.

[krf139]

I remember how 90 percent of this board was gushing with optimism about Epenesa after the Miami game last year. Let’s wait and see how Basham performs over the course of the season. I’ll believe it when I see it…. consistently 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I know a lot of people hate PFF, but they rated Settle prior to 2020 season as one of the best run stopping DT’s in the NFL.  We didn’t grab him to sack people, but to stop guys like Henry from penetrating and blowing it out like that one play last year.  Last year we had him under 2 yards a carry until he broke out.  Jackson is also known for these abilities.

 

Oliver and Phillips are our penetrators.  Phillips may get back to form from when here with 9.5 sacks as a DT.  That’s rare.

 

 

Don't expect that from Phillips. You'll be disappointed. 

 

He got very lucky that year. He ran through holes untouched on a very large percentage of his sacks. His pressure percentage was fairly unimpressive. He just got sacks on a historically excellent percentage of his pressures. Like a better than Von Miller kind of a percentage. He got lucky.

 

But he was still a pretty solid player even when he wasn't getting lucky. That's what they are looking forward to. The statisticians all told us it was a fluke and while he was a good player he wouldn't get that kind of a year for sacks again. He didn't.

 

Both before and since that year he got a pretty normal percentage of sacks per pressure.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Billl]

4 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Yeah agree...will be interesting to see how it plays out. Although AJE showed a flash or 2 here and there last season he clearly still needs some work. Some seem to have lost some confidence in AJE, but hopefully 3rd season's a charm for him. 

 

If he doesn't pick up the pace Boogie might end up making it an easy decision

Who has the longer leash of the two?  AJ has been in the league longer, but Boogie is a year older.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've mentioned this in other threads, but will keep repeating just to provide perspective:

 

He was ranked and drafted later than Chris Kelsay. So set expectations accordingly.

 

Really means much of anything though. All the ranks are different, one may have a player ranked much higher than another. Anyways, I will say I do feel better about Boogie than I did when Kelsay came along lol

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Who has the longer leash of the two?  AJ has been in the league longer, but Boogie is a year older.

I don't know. Probably about the same at this particular point 

[bigK14094]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So they drafted another college power rusher then tried to turn him into a speed rusher, is that what we are supposed to take from the "weight under control" line? If they did, then one of Boogie or AJE better kick on. 

 

Yes, this is a blind spot of the D coaching staff.  Same mistake twice?  I coudn't rule that out here.

[Mango]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Beleive in what? It’s as wild as AJE becoming great.

[Ross Murdock]

Be interesting to track how Hughes and Addison's tandem stats in Houston compare to Basham's and Rousseau's.    

[SoTier]

I think that a lot of posters have unrealistic expectations of the Bills recent young DLers.   These aren't top ten or top fifteen draft picks who realistically can replace entrenched starters but late first or late second round picks.  They have some flaws that need to be fixed or overcome.  It's not realistic to expect these young players to dislodge established starters as rookies or even as sophomores, especially because NFL defenses are much more sophisticated than most college defenses.  There's a learning curve for all NFL newcomers, and some youngsters have more to learn than others.

 

For the Bills and other outstanding teams' young defenders, it's even harder for them to break into starting lineups because the guys in front of them are better than the starters on many other teams.  It's a lot easier for a young defender to have an impact on a 3 win team with a poor defense than on a 11 or 12 win team with a highly rated defense.

 

IOW, show these young guys some patience.  Did you do your best your job/career in your first couple of years on the job or after you've mastered all the nuances?   

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, krf139 said:

I remember how 90 percent of this board was gushing with optimism about Epenesa after the Miami game last year. Let’s wait and see how Basham performs over the course of the season. I’ll believe it when I see it…. consistently 

AJ only knows how to play against Austin Jackson. Embarrassed him in college and in the NFL. If he could only face him every week he’d be an all pro. 

[Patrick Duffy]

18 minutes ago, SoTier said:

It's not realistic to expect these young players to dislodge established starters as rookies or even as sophomores, especially because NFL defenses are much more sophisticated than most college defenses.  There's a learning curve for all NFL newcomers, and some youngsters have more to learn than others.

 

For the Bills and other outstanding teams' young defenders, it's even harder for them to break into starting lineups because the guys in front of them are better than the starters on many other teams.

 

I get it, but as far as Bills go there's going to be 1 of them starting. With Hughes gone there's not a starter on that end left to dislodge. Boogie will rotate here and there, but Greg R likely will start opposite of Miller.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I'm ok with giving Miller/Groot 60+% of the snaps and toning down the rotation.

The rotation obviously enough, needs to be adjusted for the opponent, on top of being reduced somewhat, guys play better when they have the opportunity to get into a groove so to speak,