Joe Buscaglia's 7 round Bills Mock draft (paywall)

[Brandon]

I think they're planning on a CB at 25 now,  but I'm not against picking Breece Hall there if they think he's better than Singletary and can add some big play potential both rushing and receiving.  The position is devalued compared to what it once was,  but you're still counting on the RBs to touch the football 400 times a year.  Given that, I don't think it's unreasonable to use a late 1st at RB if the player profiles as a major upgrade. 

 

I'm not as much on board with a super small WR in R2 and definitely not of waiting that long for an offensive lineman.  I expect at least one of the first two picks to be an offensive lineman or CB.  Unless they take a WR at 25,  I'm expecting them to wait until R3-5 before taking one.

[Norcalbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BillsFanSD said:

I was opposed to drafting Ettiene last year, but I've changed my mind on this one for the same reason that Buscaglia cites:

 

 

This is spot on.  The two-high shell gave us and a bunch of similar teams real problems, and those problems mostly went away when we showed the ability to punish that defense by running the football.  Now, could we build on that success by strengthening the o-line and teeing up more Singletary?  Yeah, probably.  But Singletary has a low ceiling and I don't see him in a Bills uniform once he's off his rookie contract.  This offense could be flat-out unstoppable with a higher-end RB, especially if he can run routes out of the backfield.

I think the 2 high is gonna be something that Allen, mahomes, burrow, see alot next season. Not to mention Henderson was the unsung hero of the Superbowl in my opinion. The 2 high was frustrating Stafford early on, but Henderson made some huge 1st Downs with a couple of dumpoffs. Rams might not win the Superbowl without those. I love Singletary but I don't know if he makes those plays.

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

I think they're planning on a CB at 25 now,  but I'm not against picking Breece Hall there if they think he's better than Singletary and can add some big play potential both rushing and receiving.  The position is devalued compared to what it once was,  but you're still counting on the RBs to touch the football 400 times a year.  Given that, I don't think it's unreasonable to use a late 1st at RB if the player profiles as a major upgrade. 

 

I'm not as much on board with a super small WR in R2 and definitely not of waiting that long for an offensive lineman.  I expect at least one of the first two picks to be an offensive lineman or CB.  Unless they take a WR at 25,  I'm expecting them to wait until R3-5 before taking one.

I'm ok with Hall if we have a plan for CB, if it's a veteran and a 2nd rounder or something, as long as there's a plan.

[Logic]

The key to the "running back in the 1st" discussion is really the fifth year option.

The thinking goes that it is no longer wise to pay running backs a second contract. As such, locking up cheap running back labor for five years -- and having that cheap labor theoretically be an explosive playmaker -- gives you a five year window to spend on other positions and to not have to use other draft capital or free agency dollars on running backs, since you already have a bellcow playmaker at the position. Then, once the five years is up, rinse and repeat. The fifth year option for running backs is one of the cheapest of all positions, so you get to lock an offensive playmaker in for the prime of his career for cheap, run the wheels off, then let him walk.

Specifically, taking a running back at the END of the first round is where the sweet spot seems to be. People say "take a position of greater value in the 1st, and wait until the 2nd or 3rd or 4th to take a running back!". The problem there is that you're not getting that fifth year option. Is one extra year really worth it? I don't know. I'm just talking about what Joe B seems to be pointing to with his Breece Hall idea.

[Brandon]

9 minutes ago, Georgie said:

Don't need to draft a RB a year before Singletary contract expires. A rookie can step in and replace him NEXT year. And maybe Bills think Stevenson steps up . Don't like this draft because I envision QBs killing us downfeld 

 

They could replace him as a runner and maybe as a receiver with a rookie,  but it wouldn't be the worst idea to bring the replacement in a year early in order to get him thoroughly acclimated to the pass protection/ blitz pickup responsibilities they'd ask of him. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Love ya bud

 

So that's a no on the jog?

[billybrew1]

Joe must be losing it….

[Bookie Man]

Well Beane did say his top priority is protecting Josh this year. A dominant running is the best way to protect your QB. He just has to hand off the ball. Boom. 

😁

[Alphadawg7]

51 minutes ago, Magox said:

I can’t possibly fathom Beane not addressing FA with a quality veteran DB.    White may not be available by then, which means the Bills would start the year with Dane Jackson and a rookie?   
 

No way.  He is not going to make all the moves to win it all and go that bare with DB’s.  No freaking way!

 

Thats what I am hoping...but until then, I am not buying a mock with a DB in first 2 rounds.  Once we sign someone, sure I will absolutely adjust that stance, depending on who we sign...or if we sign one.

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So that's a no on the jog?

Definitely a no.  Did my 45 on the treadmill, 11 incline 4.0 speed.  Couch time for a few hours.  

[OldTimer1960]

I would not like this outcome at all.  Better score every drive, because opponents will have a field day against a rookie from a lower level of competition and Dane Jackson to start the year.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Particularly since nobody seems to care about putting together an offensive line that can actually open holes for a RB....

Why bring that up…, kill joy😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This truism is true because it true,

 

“The game is won and lost in the trenches” 

[BigDingus]

Just one of these drafts I'd love to see an O-linemen drafted early. A great o-line can boost all facets of our offense & help Josh, the run game & pass protection.

 

It's always so hard to evaluate our RBs or poor Josh performances when a middling O-line gets pushed around.

 

I honestly feel the Cowboys would be a bottom tier team if not for having a strong or dominant line so many years. They have down years here & there, but overall they make Dak & Zeke look way better than they really are.

Edited March 24, 2022 by BigDingus

[Max Fischer]

My first reaction was surprise because the past few years Joe B was adamant that an early round RB was in the cards. However, if the top CBs are off the board, as well as Zion Johnson, I think the Bills could give Hall consideration. I doubt it happens but the Bills seem to be pulling out all the stops so, who knows?

[Awwufelloff]

Wouldn't be against it. I'm sick of seeing designed runs for Allen. He can't consistently do that year after year and expect to remain healthy, its just not going to happen. 

[njbuff]

Do the Bills even like Hall? That is the million dollar question.

[buffalostu2]

2 hours ago, jkeerie said:

Does he give a reason why Stout over Araiza at punter?

 

Araiza doesn't hold because he kicked FGs as well

[In Summary]

If he didn't defy convention, who would read the article?  Who was he intending for Hall to run behind?

 

[GunnerBill]

No. 

No.

No.

 

Hate it.

[jkeerie]

8 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

Araiza doesn't hold because he kicked FGs as well

Stout was a place kicker/punter for Penn State so he wasn't a holder either.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

No. 

No.

No.

 

Hate it.

Agree- I think Hall is OK, but not in round 1 with huge need at corner.  If they aren’t going corners, I could see OL or WR - anything else would be a head scratcher

 

i think It would be too early for a tiny WR at 57.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree- I think Hall is OK, but not in round 1 with huge need at corner.  If they aren’t going corners, I could see OL or WR - anything else would be a head scratcher

 

i think It would be too early for a tiny WR at 57.

 

 

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

[gobills404]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

But they ran fast so that means they’re good

[John from Riverside]

It just really depends on what (if any) top corners are on the board at 25

 

I dont want to overdraft a lesser corner at 25 just because we need one......but one is there you gotta take him.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

Agree - Hill is a major outlier.  Just because he is great, doesn’t mean that any 5’8” 170 lb fast guy will be equivalent.  Hill was not a high draft choice either.

 

just because Aaron Donald is outstanding, it doesn’t mean that it is wise to draft 285 lb DTs.  Ed Oliver is a heck of an athlete for his size, but nowhere near Donald in the NFL.

[Shake_My_Head]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

It just really depends on what (if any) top corners are on the board at 25

 

I dont want to overdraft a lesser corner at 25 just because we need one......but one is there you gotta take him.

I'd go the other way, trading up 4-5 slots to get the right CB, if they're convinced he's a long-term star.    CB is a premier position, worthy of expending some draft capital.   Having that CB2 spot solidified for years to come at a first contract price would be a big advantage.

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Buscaglia's 7 round Bills mock draft from today. While I am not generally "Team Round 1 Running Back!", his reasoning for taking Hall does make some sense to me.


https://theathletic.com/3205471/2022/03/24/bills-7-round-post-free-agency-mock-draft-a-running-back-before-a-wide-receiver-or-cornerback/

 

Round 1, No. 25: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

When most think about adding firepower to the Bills offense, the first impulse is to go with a receiver. That does make sense, though there may not be a better short-term and long-term fit for an offensive playmaker than Breece Hall. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have two years remaining on their contracts, which makes it less of a need. But running back Devin Singletary is in the final year of his rookie deal.

Singletary stepped up late last season, but he doesn’t have the complete, dynamic skill set the Bills may covet. And they’ll have to pay Singletary pretty well to stick around in 2023. With dwindling cap space for next season and key players coming up on free agency, Tremaine Edmunds, Dawson Knox and Jordan Poyer, Singletary might not fit into their plans. The Bills also tried to sign J.D. McKissic this offseason, which shows they’re not settled at the position.

With Hall, the Bills would be getting a potential three-down threat who would pair with Singletary in the first year and then take over the backfield in 2023. If he hits, Hall would give them the total running back package, which is a lot harder to find in this draft than a quality receiver.

“Hall is an easy running back to like because he doesn’t really have a fatal flaw. He runs with patience, power and agility. He grades very well in the position-specific areas,” The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler wrote in December. “Coaches will love his ball skill as a pass catcher, showing the body control and hands to adjust to off-target throws. His consistent production and toughness make him one of the more reliable backs in this class.”

The ability to make something out of nothing as a pass catcher is a trait worth chasing. And if the Bills are shifting to more of a zone running scheme, his skills would work perfectly within that. The only question left on Hall was his burst and being able to punish a defense with a home run, and he tested out with elite levels of explosiveness on his 10-yard split, broad jump and vertical at the combine, and he showed a sustained speed with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. Hall only turns 21 at the end of May, which means the high-level production window is open that much longer because he has fewer miles on the tires. And his best comparable NFL player based on advanced metrics and workout scores? Jonathan Taylor, according to Player Profiler.

I’ve generally been against the notion of drafting a running back in the first round. But, after seeing how 2021 unfolded, I believe the value of a young running back on a rookie deal is increasing. Finding a versatile, three-down back who can be more than just a dump-off option in the passing game and break a run wide open gives a team an immense advantage. With all the great quarterback and receiver play across the league, defenses shifted to an increasing amount of two-high-safety looks. The premise is simple: to prevent a premier passing attack from looking for a deep-field shot. And the strategy worked — a lot.

The Bills weren’t at their best offensively down the stretch until they started mixing in more two-tight-end looks and presented a threat to run, which explained the emphasis of adding tight end O.J. Howard in the offseason. It also slightly devalues the slot receiver, making an early receiver pick less of a slam dunk given the Bills’ current roster construction. Having the right running back who can do it all is the perfect counter to opposing defenses hoping to take away the pass.

The one thing that remains unchanged is that, in most cases, paying a running back with a big second contract is usually not the way to go. The prime of a running back’s career is much earlier than most positions, and the threat of injuries and production dips during that second contract is very real because of how many hits a back takes. So before you know it, that once great running back could become an albatross of a contract and hold a team’s cap space back. By investing in a running back late in the first round, they get a fixed-cost deal and the lowest-costing fifth-year option in the NFL. The running back fifth-year option for the 2019 draft class was the lowest of any position by more than $1 million, and at other positions, the fifth-year option comes close to tripling the running back option. Running back was also the only position not to go over $10 million on a fifth-year option for players who made multiple Pro Bowls. And after that fifth year is when teams start wondering how many more years of top-end production the running back could have, giving a team a natural place to move on without incurring long-term cap problems.

The league has been devaluing running backs for a long time, and the salaries reflect that to drive that fifth-year option down, so it would be wise to exploit that. The Bills would be quite savvy to get ahead of the curve of where the NFL is shifting. And for those wondering, no, Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams was not available.

 

Round 2, No. 57: Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis

All of you “wide receiver or bust” fans can rest easy with this selection, which I think is a perfect fit for what the Bills could be looking for to help their offense. Austin is a home run threat with incredible speed, which is something the Bills do not have, and he can develop into a long-term slot receiver in the offense. With Isaiah McKenzie guaranteed only one year on his deal and Jamison Crowder on a one-year contract, it makes sense to draft a long-term slot prospect and develop that player in 2022. Austin would also provide the Bills the pre-snap motion elements they’ve employed for years with McKenzie. Austin could factor into the return game as well. With the top-two pairing of Hall and Austin, the Bills offense is looking a lot scarier to opponents.


 

Round 3, No. 89: Josh Williams, CB, Fayetteville State

Round 4, No. 130: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

 

Round 5, No. 168: Cam Jurgens, IOL, Nebraska

 

Round 6, No. 185: Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tennessee

 

Round 6, No. 203: Jordan Stout, P, Penn State

 

Round 7, No. 231: Jeremiah Moon, DE, Florida

 

 

Not bad…but I would like them to trade a few picks either this year for next and move into the 3rd and draft a second CB

[JaCrispy]

I can get down with this...👍

[PauleeeWalnuts]

They need two CB desperately….I would be shocked if they waited until mid rounds to address that 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

 

I'll tell you what I don’t like is watching Tremaine Edmunds take on RBs. How does everyone feel about him?

[Rockinon]

6 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I didn't read the article, but my thought as to why the Penn State punter was listed and not Araiza in the 6th round is that Araiza will be gone by then.  Also, it has been said that Araiza has never been a holder for kicks.  The Bills have traditionally used their punter in this role.  That said, a thought occurred to me - if they keep both Barkley and Keenum on the roster - a distinct possibility - why can't Barkley hold for kicks?  If Allen is healthy, I suspect that Keenum is going to get most of the 2nd team reps and there won't be many reps available for Barkley anyway.  Barkely will be more of an emergency 3rd QB/glorified assistant QB coach.  If he spends some time with special teams, how deterimental will that really be?  Plus, it gives the team a lot more options as to fake FG pass plays.

 

On the flip side (a hole in my own argument) is that you'd need to have 3 QBs active on game day, and that's not a likely scneario.

Barkley would be a 3rd string QB. You can't have 3 active QBs on game day.

[teef]

13 seconds.  

[Governor]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

You could make the case that Fournette was the reason Tampa won.

 

I only like the idea if the value is right when we pick.

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, Governor said:

You could make the case that Fournette was the reason Tampa won.

 

I only like the idea if the value is right when we pick.

You could. And no one would believe you.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

44 minutes ago, teef said:

13 seconds.  

Never happens if Von is the DE over Hughes 

[The Frankish Reich]

Chances that any of the listed players are actually drafted by the Bills, in any round: < 50%

You might as well predict the exact score of the first Bills-Patriots meeting next year.

I enjoy reading about how certain players would be a good fit, but 7 rounds of a mock draft? Really? We are officially in what the Brits call the silly season.

Edited March 25, 2022 by The Frankish Reich

[Chicken Boo]

A rookie corner is not going to put this team over the top.  

 

A game-breaking RB, on the other hand, adds a different element to the offense and makes the Bills very difficult to defend.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree - Hill is a major outlier.  Just because he is great, doesn’t mean that any 5’8” 170 lb fast guy will be equivalent.  Hill was not a high draft choice either.

 

just because Aaron Donald is outstanding, it doesn’t mean that it is wise to draft 285 lb DTs.  Ed Oliver is a heck of an athlete for his size, but nowhere near Donald in the NFL.

There's been a lot of Tyreek Hill types, both before and after Tyreek Hill. Tavon Austin, KJ Hamler (I still like him if healthy), etc. etc. Tyreek 2.0 hunting is probably not a sound draft strategy, unless you're talking about taking a flyer on a 5th rounder ... which is exactly what Tyreek was.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, teef said:

13 seconds.  

 

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Never happens if Von is the DE over Hughes 

 

The Bills might have had home field advantage last year if they had Von Miller over Jerry Hughes over the course of the whole season.

 

However I don't think Von Miller makes any difference when it comes to 13 seconds in and of itself.

 

Mahomes was getting rid of the ball quickly which is why it made no sense to rush 4. No pass rush was gonna get near him.

[Big Blitz]

I keep watching 3 - 4 corners go in every mock draft and I'm hate picking Zion every time.  

[LEBills]

I will actually be surprised if we don’t wind up with Josh Williams at CB, he seems like such a McDermott special. Small school guy with tools to coach up like Josh Norman, Bradbury, Taron and Neal.