Josh Allen’s bad two years

[Motorin']

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

The media is, after all, about entertainment.  The story is more compelling this way:  Josh was an overlooked QB in high school; then a JUCO nobody; then an unimpressive starter at lowly Wyoming; and then an inaccurate, unpolished starter in Buffalo for a couple of years before making his unexpected/miraculous emergence as an NFL superstar.

 

But the truth isn't quite that dramatic.  His growing skillset was there to see at Wyoming and, even more so, his first two years with the Bills.  The OP is right when he points out the OL and WR corps Josh's first couple years with us didn't do him many favors.  His stats those years were deflated, Brady like, by the lack of talent around him.

 

Exactly. You can look at his Wyoming tape and see throws with an insane level of accuracy and arm talent that almost no one else in the history of the sport could make. Josh was never inaccurate. He was inconsistent, in his mechanics, especially on the easy throws. 

 

We've been blessed to see his steadily improving consistentcy coincide with his steadily mastery of the mental side of the game.

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

Don't remember if it was his first of second year but there was a 3rd and long and he completed a nice pass for a first. Penalty. 3rd and even longer. Allen makes a nice play and completes the pass for a first. Penalty. Third and dumb long. Allen completes another pass for first. Penalty. Third and stupid long. Idr what happened on the play but we ended up punting. That's when I was completely convinced he was our "franchise" QB. 

 

He had a similar sequence against the 49ers in his third year where he threw something like 4 touchdowns on one drive but all were called back by penalties. 

 

[Watkins90]

I think what I find even funnier is all the twitter warriors for other teams trying to act like their QB can take that step in year 3 like Allen did. I see a lot of Miami fans trying to say that they expect Tua to take the huge step forward that Allen did. Except, Tua has never really showed the flashes that Allen has showed. In fact, Tua was probably better statistically speaking over his first two years, but Allen consistently gave you flashes in that time that showed he could be elite. I have never seen  that from Tua. 

[17islongenough]

The two plays that made me think he had "IT" were the Vikings hurdle and the TD against Jacksonville to Foster

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

It might be unpopular, but Beasley may have been almost as big a factor of Diggs to Josh’s development. 

 

I don't really agree that Beasley or Diggs helped Allen's development. That's a talking point used by analysts who need to justify their awful takes on Allen after his 1st and 2nd year. Beasley and then Diggs helped the offense's development because they were actually NFL caliber receivers. We were so starved for WR talent that there were people on here trying to argue John Brown was a #1 WR because of one good season he had with Allen throwing him the ball. Or that Duke Williams was an NFL receiver. Allen developed into an elite player because he worked incredibly hard on the technical and mental part of the game. That would have been true even if he had gone to the Jets.

[The Red King]

So, the QB that everyone was saying was the least ready for the NFL and was going to take time to develop...took time to develop?  ^.-

[Royale with Cheese]

The dude is only 25.  He probably won't even hit his peak until he's like 28.  He will just keep getting better.

 

I feel in the next few years, he's going to have an all time season.  Something like 5,000 yards, 45 TD's passing, 700 yards rushing, 10 rushing TD's and a 100+ rating.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Royale with Cheese

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

I think what I find even funnier is all the twitter warriors for other teams trying to act like their QB can take that step in year 3 like Allen did. I see a lot of Miami fans trying to say that they expect Tua to take the huge step forward that Allen did. Except, Tua has never really showed the flashes that Allen has showed. In fact, Tua was probably better statistically speaking over his first two years, but Allen consistently gave you flashes in that time that showed he could be elite. I have never seen  that from Tua. 

 

Tua was definitely more competent as a rookie than Josh. But you always like "this is all there is." Tua got a bit more consistent after his injuries last year but it is still a case of "he is consistently this". You always saw with Josh from very early on moments where you knew "if he can do that consistently he is going to be a hell of a player." Once Josh became a competent NFL Quarterback in year 2 he was already at a level that Tua can't reach. 

[FireChans]

Josh left a lot of plays on the field in years 1 and 2, there’s no reason to deny that.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Josh left a lot of plays on the field in years 1 and 2, there’s no reason to deny that.

 

I would give Allen a pass on year 1. Rookie QB thrown into the fire. The Bills screwed up the QB situation that year with McCarron and Peterman. Josh was supposed to sit and learn for a year. Plus that team had no talent. Some even thought they would go winless that year or close to it.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

I would give Allen a pass on year 1. Rookie QB thrown into the fire. The Bills screwed up the QB situation that year with McCarron and Peterman. Josh was supposed to sit and learn for a year. Plus that team had no talent. Some even thought they would go winless that year or close to it.

It is what it is, pass or no. 
 

it’s not like he isn’t a great QB now. We don’t have to pretend like he was great as a rookie. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

I would give Allen a pass on year 1. Rookie QB thrown into the fire. The Bills screwed up the QB situation that year with McCarron and Peterman. Josh was supposed to sit and learn for a year. Plus that team had no talent. Some even thought they would go winless that year or close to it.

 

Baptism by fire!

 

Just now, FireChans said:

It is what it is, pass or no. 
 

it’s not like he isn’t a great QB now. We don’t have to pretend like he was great as a rookie. 

 

No, but you sure did let us all know about it those first few years.  You had no patience despite the glimpses of what he could become with more experience and tutelage.

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Baptism by fire!

 

 

It worked out in the end and that is all that matters.

[shane nelson]

Its been a true joy watching him develop.  Coming from a small HS and College he had nowhere near the core skills or coaching of his peers.  But his passion for the game and arm strength was clear.  The 3 games that standout that he could be special were the Vikings, Dolphins loss & Jax.    

[Kaep]

Allen led the league with most dropped passes in 2019.  So that “crazy” leap from year 2 to 3 isn’t shocking at all when you insert Diggs/Beasley

[fergie's ire]

Yeah the "He sucked and then suddenly was good" read comes from lazy journalists and casual fans.  Yes, there were HUGE problems with Josh's game in the first year.  He could not hit a swing pass to save his life, could not put any air under the ball, and he was slow reading defenses.  (Though he didn't say it, he too was seeing ghosts against the Patriots.)  However, anyone who watched could see the promise with plays like the 75 yard pass to Foster against the Jags.  (Still one of Allen's most amazing plays.) Second year, he could throw the swing pass and put some air on the ball, at least with intermediate passes.  Reading defense was better but still struggled at times.  Inconsistency was the biggest issue and panicking and trying to make the big play.  As someone (don't remember who) described him, Josh could have a lineman hanging off him, be on his back foot and throw the ball 40 years on the line and hit a receiver on the numbers....then on the next play lateral ball to the mascot.  2nd half of 3rd year and 4th year really see Josh dissecting offenses (reading, misdirecting, etc.) better ability to loft even a deep ball and some amazing touch (like against 49ers or the ball he was "throwing away" to Knox).  It is a trajectory that anyone should have seen as possible (though not certain) from day one.

[st pete gogolak]

If I recall correctly, the thought was that Josh would sit the first year, similar to Mahones.  It was pretty universal thinking that he was "raw" and would need time to develop.  Despite the numbers I think every single Bills fan was very excited about him after the first year and couldn't wait until opening day the next season.  That trend continues.  Can't wait for opening day 2022.

[Nester]

8 hours ago, Nelius said:

I think you could tell by about his 3rd game or so that we might have drafted somebody special. Was that just his third game when he did the first hurdle against Minnesota?

 

I agree he wasn't trash and that a lot of it was just propped up by talking heads that wanted to be right about him being a reach, and they were able to cling to that through about the end of his 2nd season. Even casuals and pessimists knew he wasn't a bust well before the end of his 2nd season, so everybody but Nick Wright jumped on the bandwagon real quick when it was evident in season 3 that he was the real deal. 

I bought my Josh allen jersey during half time of that game. He Hurdled and I was sold. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

Justin Jefferson has put up bigger numbers than Diggs did as a Viking. 
 

You are correct about stats being a byproduct of system. However, talent can also cause change/tweak a planned system. 
 

Either way, Allen showed elite traits and play making ability pre Diggs. So put two elite guys together and it’s no wonder they both go off. 

 

They no longer have the same OC. Stop trying to compare apples to oranges.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

9 hours ago, billvernsays said:

The media loves talking about how much better Josh Allen is now compared to his 1st 2 years, like it came outta nowhere and in my opinion that’s simply lazy on their part.

 

The media? Talk about lazy, blaming the media for stating what has become obvious... he literally did make great strides in his game by working extremely hard and getting great coaching and workouts from people like Jordan Palmer. Even if he would have had a lot better weapons, he still would have had growing pains and would have been making bonehead decisions like any young QB would make. So yeah, ease up on the crusade against the media.

[Tanoros]

22 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They no longer have the same OC. Stop trying to compare apples to oranges.

They are still a run first offense. That part didn’t change. Also, Jefferson put up more numbers as a rookie than Diggs did while there. 
 

I’m not in any way trying to bash Diggs, I’m just pointing out that stats are not solely a by product of a system. The system is a factor in stats, but not the sole reason for one’s stats. The fact remains, a rookie wr on a run first offense, put up more numbers than Diggs did on a run first offense. It’s not exactly comparing apples to oranges, more like tangerines to navels. Diggs on the Bills offense vs Diggs on the Vikings offense would be comparing apples to oranges. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Tanoros

[GerstAusGosheim]

8 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Should check out the archives the night he was drafted.  Pretty embarrassing stuff by some pretty popular posters .  

Howard and Jeremy most certainly have not eaten enough crow about wanting Rosen. My god they were insufferable. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He was mostly bad up until his injury… he was a different QB once he came back from the injury against Jacksonville.  

He was pretty damn good in the Vikings game - on the road against a great defense.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

They are still a run first offense. That part didn’t change. Also, Jefferson put up more numbers as a rookie than Diggs did while there. 
 

I’m not in any way trying to bash Diggs, I’m just pointing out that stats are not solely a by product of a system. The system is a factor in stats, but not the sole reason for one’s stats. The fact remains, a rookie wr on a run first offense, put up more numbers than Diggs did on a run first offense. It’s not exactly comparing apples to oranges, more like tangerines to navels. Diggs on the Bills offense vs Diggs on the Vikings offense would be comparing apples to oranges. 

 

Rookie Justin Jefferson had that advantage that for the most part he got single coverage and teams doubled Thielen (whereas when Diggs was there he got most of the doubles). Wht was super impressive about Jefferson is he backed it up in 2021 when everyone knew he was the guy and scheming to stop him. 

[extrahammer]

The moment that stands out for me when I knew he would be good was that game and it was in 2018. It was the first time we really saw him take the team on his back and carry them to a win. 

 

23 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

He was pretty damn good in the Vikings game - on the road against a great defense.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair amount of revisionist history in this thread. There were a number of posters that had their doubts about Allen after year 2. You know who you are. That said there were legit concerns. His deep ball accuracy was still a major issue after year two.  And the stats don’t lie. 58.8% completion in year 2 is horrible. What was a sign of future success was his TD/INT ratio improvement in year 2.  Keep in mind Lamar Jackson is winning the MVP,Allen losing to Watson in the playoffs with worries about hero ball, and Mahommes is going to the SuperBowl at the same time. 
I believe we all saw glimpses of greatness from Allen. But to say it was obvious he was going to make the massive improvement from year 2 to year 3 is disingenuous.

This is correct.  Through year two there were a lot of doubters.  People didn't believe he could do the good things consistently, and people went on and on about "accuracy."  I was sold after the second half of year one. 

[SCBills]

He was raw Year 1, but still had the splash plays that made you believe in him.

 

Year 2, he was average, with more splash plays.  Should have won his 1st Playoff Game if our defense doesn't unravel, John Brown gets two feet in or a phantom penalty isn't called at the end of the game.   

 

Year 3.. MVP candidate.  

 

Year 4... god-mode Playoffs

[TheBrownBear]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is correct.  Through year two there were a lot of doubters.  People didn't believe he could do the good things consistently, and people went on and on about "accuracy."  I was sold after the second half of year one. 

There were posters that legitimately believed he would be unseated by JAKE FROMM!!!  LOL.

 

Admittedly, I was a "wrong Josh" guy on draft night, but was over it and on the Allen train by the time the season kicked off.   I was a true believer by the end of his first year and believed it was only a matter of time until he became a star in the league.  Look at the putrid offensive roster in 2018.  He was a one man offense down the stretch of that season and still produced a winning (or was it .500) record after the midway point.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I don't know why we need this revisionist history.

 

Josh was mostly terrible his rookie year. Sure there were extenuating circumstances like a poor O-line and a dreadful WR corps, but Josh himself was not good. He played a ton of hero ball and made way too many mistakes. That being said, he did have some amazing plays that flashed his talent and showed he had the potential to be a great QB. 

 

His 2nd year Josh was mostly a game manager. The roster was significantly improved and McD/Daboll obviously had Josh focusing on reducing the hero ball and mistakes to let the team win games without the QB being a difference maker. That was successful as Josh did drastically cut down on mistakes, but he was also very rarely a difference maker

[Greg S]

10 minutes ago, SCBills said:

He was raw Year 1, but still had the splash plays that made you believe in him.

 

Year 2, he was average, with more splash plays.  Should have won his 1st Playoff Game if our defense doesn't unravel, John Brown gets two feet in or a phantom penalty isn't called at the end of the game.   

 

Year 3.. MVP candidate.  

 

Year 4... god-mode Playoffs

 

Year 5...Super Bowl champ and MVP

[TheBrownBear]

17 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I don't know why we need this revisionist history.

 

Josh was mostly terrible his rookie year. Sure there were extenuating circumstances like a poor O-line and a dreadful WR corps, but Josh himself was not good. He played a ton of hero ball and made way too many mistakes. That being said, he did have some amazing plays that flashed his talent and showed he had the potential to be a great QB. 

Sorry, but you're wrong.  Given the roster, he was absolutely NOT TERRIBLE in his final six starts of his rookie season.  He put up 13 TDs, averaged 287 ypg and went 3-3 during that season ending stretch with Robert Foster and Zay Jones as his receivers.  (And it would have been a 4-2 record if Clay doesn't drop that gimme at the goal line in Miami).  It wasn't revisionist history or us just relying on the "eyeball test", his stats back up the claim that he was improving and actually fairly good by the end of his rookie year.  Yes, there were still hero ball moments and the accuracy wasn't the best, but, assuming your viewing wasn't colored by a pre-existing agenda, you could clearly see that Josh was going to be a very good player at a minimum.

Edited March 24, 2022 by TheBrownBear

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Baptism by fire!

 

 

No, but you sure did let us all know about it those first few years.  You had no patience despite the glimpses of what he could become with more experience and tutelage.

Wrong. 
 

Allen needed to be better than he was in 2018/19 to be a great starting QB in the NFL. And he did get a million times better. He would admit this.
 

So no reason to pretend he was great back then. He wasn’t.

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, billvernsays said:

The media loves talking about how much better Josh Allen is now compared to his 1st 2 years, like it came outta nowhere and in my opinion that’s simply lazy on their part.
 

I went back and read the message board archives during Allens rookie season (I have too much time on my hands) and the sense most of us had was after Josh sat out a bit with his injury the game started to slow down for him and he was consistently showing us that he had the “it” factor to be what he’s become. 
 

His O-Line was terrible and his WRs helped him even less yet he was still out there running for 18 yards on a 3rd and 16. Or firing a ball on 3rd and 22 past the sticks hitting Kelvin Benjamin or Zay Jones in the hands who would constantly let him down. 
 

The point I’m trying to make is that is was clear to us that he was special early on regardless of the completion % because when you watched the games you knew he was giving you everything he’s got, every play. 

 

These NFL analysts should step their game up. 

 

I disagree with your analysis.  Most QBs who come into the NFL with as many issues as a passer as Allen had as a rookie never become starting NFL QBs, much less elite ones.   He had raw talent, but so do lots of guys who never make it.  That he has been able to transform himself into an accurate, disciplined superstar is simply amazing, and is a testament to his drive, self discipline, and work ethic.  

[billsfan89]

2018 Josh was in an offense that lacked talent and he looked like he did in college bad and good aspects of his game showed. In 2019 Josh was around better offensive talent and he played more within himself and tampered down the “wild” aspects of his game. In 2019 Josh played more like a game manager who can flash and make plays. He still needed a bit more firepower and to fine tune his game.

 

In 2020 Josh got his deep ball back and had the firepower on offense and in 2021 it was more of the same.

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

No, but you sure did let us all know about it those first few years.  You had no patience despite the glimpses of what he could become with more experience and tutelage.

 

Some people like to look at Allen's play the first two years in a vacuum, cling to belief that Allen was simply a bad QB, and that the QB he is now came out of nowhere - completely unexpected by anyone. When they say, "nobody saw it coming," it makes it easier to rationalize their own awful, lazy takes.

[Jay_Fixit]

it’s not like Josh was ever bad. He was just really raw.

 

He was definitely bad against Green Bay as a rookie. But he showed more in those few games than someone like Mac Jones did in his full season last year.

 

And in his second year I think outside of the clear penalty missed call, he was a John Brown sideline catch on an absolute dart away from the Bills beating Houston.

[Chicken Boo]

11 hours ago, billvernsays said:

The media loves talking about how much better Josh Allen is now compared to his 1st 2 years, like it came outta nowhere and in my opinion that’s simply lazy on their part.

 

Sure, there were flashes, but Josh IS better than he was his first 2 years and by a large margin.  He's able to not just show flashes, but sustain his level of play game in game out, mostly.  

 

Consistency is the key for all QBs.

4 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

MJ at the 0:53 mark:

 

"Or maybe, you're just making _________"

 

One of my absolute favorite commercials ever!  🙌🏾 🐐 

[GoBills808]

Of course he was bad his rookie year😂😂😂

 

look at who he was throwing to

[dhgold]

I remember JA's year two as a mixed bag, showing considerable improvement from year one but still quite lacking as far as precision, consistency and poise. I loved his leadership and intangibles and the fact that he got the heretofore suck-ass Bills to the playoffs but at the end of the season I was on the fence as to whether he was the long term answer. 

 

Sometime around the end of the 2019 regular season (JA's year 2), I had a conversation with a relative who'd recently played in the NFL at a pro-bowl level and who spent a good part of his retirement watching the league. I asked him what he thought of Josh and he said "dude can't play". I tried to defend Josh on the basis of intangibles and improvement while acknowledging he still had much room for improvement, but my relative wasn't buying it. (At the end of Josh's year three, the same relative considered him an elite NFL QB.)

 

The only person I can think of who was convinced JA was the answer after year was Adam Schein.

Edited March 24, 2022 by dhgold

[Utah John]

I like to compare Allen's attitude to that of other Bills' QBs.  

 

There was a game near the end of Kyle Orton's time here (please don't say that name three times, or he'll come back) when the Bills were down near the end of a game, and Orton had to scramble to the right and get a first down, or the Bills were going to lose.  As this player ran toward the line to gain, two defenders came up to challenge him, and he ran out of bounds short of the line to gain.

 

Put Allen in that situation, and at least one of the defenders will have to make a business decision right there on the spot.