Divisional Round: Buffalo at KC Sunday at 6:30

[Boatdrinks]

28 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

I get your point, the games have to be played etc.. Your analogy would work better if the coin flip was replaced with something that has a 75% chance of happening.

What % of #1 seeds win their divisional round game? Did it matter to the Titans or the Packers ? Home teams were slightly under 50% in the NFL this season. Perhaps that’s more predictive than what happened in say, the 1970’s. 

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

DON'T LET CHRIS JONES WRECK THE GAME LIKE LAST YEAR'S AFC CHAMPIONSHIP.

The Bills fell short in many areas besides handling Chris Jones in that game. It’s taken on an almost mythical status now. Anyway the Bills are much healthier and playing at a higher level than they were in the 2020 playoffs. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

I don’t gamble, but I remember reading Tuesday Morning Quarterback. The author would always give the stat that the home team wins nearly 75% of the divisional round games. 
 

We’re now rooting for a complete sweep by the road teams (assuming we all want Brady bounced). 

I’d say the smart money is on the remaining home teams. 

The home teams today are both still the favorites.  But, unless there’s a fix or bias from the NFL to favor the home teams today, the outcome of yesterday’s games are independent of today’s.

[Simon]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Phew?

 

He's probably Canadian 🤷‍♂️

 

 

[McMuffin]

All of the prognosticators are saying it’s going to be high scoring and close. Buffalo has the better defense.  KC’s defense is worse than the Patriots. We can stop them more than they can stop us. Screw it.  Flip the narrative on it’s head. Give me Buffalo 31-10.

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

50%

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

A hype video that gave me goosebumps and I really enjoyed the music in the background. So much better than others. Who's singing?

[CorkScrewHill]

Kyle Williams narrated video: Coming soon:Bills vs Chiefs

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/coming-soon-bills-vs-chiefs-x6137

[Pokebball]

7 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

The odds of going 10-0, at the time you start the first flip is different than the odds of each individual flip.  Each individual flip remains at 50%,

 

LOL what are we doing?  Shouldn't we be cooking up some vittles?

Edited January 23, 2022 by Pokebball

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

  I’ve been working til 2am the last couple days and my body already has an internal alarm built in that wakes me up between 3 am and 6am regularly.  I went to bed @ 3am last night and woke up at 5:30, couldn’t get back to sleep or take a nap all day. Just finishing up a crazy night at work now and just praying that I can sleep til 8 or 9, but I’m sure I’ll sleep by 3 and wake by 5.  Grrrrrrrrrrrr.  I’m gonna be a zombie all day tomorrow. 

4 hours sleep last night.  More than I expected.

 

LET’S F*********************************
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Bleed Bills Blue said:

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/chiefs-bills-rams-buccaneers-game-time-channel-stream-nfl-playoffs-20220123.html

 

"Allen is 8-0 this season calling the coin toss on the road, where the visiting team’s captain calls heads or tails at midfield.  If you add in the Week 14 overtime coin toss against the Buccaneers, he’s 9-0.

 

What are the odds of Allen going 10-0 tonight? According to Gino Biondini, chair of the department of mathematics at the University at Buffalo, 0.097656%."

 

I don't know...seems like a 50/50 proposition to me. Of course, since it's Josh Allen, I would bump that up to 100%.

That’s either a poorly written article, or UB needs to revoke Prof Biondini’s tenure…

[TwistofFate]

8 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

The odds of going 10-0, at the time you start the first flip is different than the odds of each individual flip.  Each individual flip remains at 50%,

 

LOL what are we doing?  Shouldn't we be cooking up some vittles?

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

[Pokebball]

8 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

When you say compounded probability you are taking the multiple flips together.  I'm talking about one flip always being 50/50. For example, the odds of heads with one flip is 50%.  The odds of getting heads two times in a row is .5 x .5, or .25.

 

We're gonna have to agree to disagree...and I'm right.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Pokebball

[RiotAct]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

That’s either a poorly written article, or UB needs to revoke Prof Biondini’s tenure…

whoa!   I had him for MTH306 (Differential Equations) back in 2006, my sophomore year.

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

Question for you…if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads all 10 times, what are the chances it comes up heads again on the 11th flip?

 

Heads by a billion!

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

 

This poster is correct depending on the question.  Each independent coin flip is 50/50 but the odds of getting the same face 11 times in a row is .05%

[Nextmanup]

It occurred to me yesterday, while watching Titans vs. Bengals, that Nantz and Romo will be doing OUR GAME TODAY.

 

Aside from Al Michaels, that is as good as NFL broadcasting gets these days (I know, it's pretty bad).

 

Looking forward to this crew calling the game--and we'll get them again next week in the AFC championship game too (KNOCK ON WOOD).

 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It occurred to me yesterday, while watching Titans vs. Bengals, that Nantz and Romo will be doing OUR GAME TODAY.

 

Aside from Al Michaels, that is as good as NFL broadcasting gets these days (I know, it's pretty bad).

 

Looking forward to this crew calling the game--and we'll get them again next week in the AFC championship game too (KNOCK ON WOOD).

 

 

I liked Romo his first year.  Its almost like the band that sold out and commercialized themselves now.  I still like them better than most though.

 

You gave me a thumbs down above.  I don't know what because I was correct in what I said.

[TwistofFate]

16 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

When you say compounded probability you are taking the multiple flips together.  I'm talking about one flip always being 50/50. For example, the odds of heads with one flip is 50%.  The odds of getting heads two times in a row is .5 x .5, or .25.

 

We're gonna have to agree to disagree...and I'm right.

My guy, you aren't right. Lol. 

 

We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

[Pokebball]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

My guy, you aren't right. Lol. 

 

We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

Yes, yes we are.  9 flips ago the odds were really against him doing so.  Today, it's 50%

[LeGOATski]

27 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

Knowing Josh, he's probably flipping coins at home in preparation.

[TwistofFate]

Just now, Pokebball said:

Yes, yes we are.  9 flips ago the odds were really against him doing so.  Today, it's 50%

You got spunk my man.  Flip a coin 10 times and let me know when you get 10 in a row. 

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Knowing Josh, he's probably flipping coins at home in preparation.

I can't tell you how much I love this. Lmao! 

[Johnnycage46]

Coin flipping?  This seems like a drought-era topic...

[Comebackkid]

11 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

 

I hope I made it.

 

 

 

 

Nooooooo!!!

you sound like green bay!

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This poster is correct depending on the question.  Each independent coin flip is 50/50 but the odds of getting the same face 11 times in a row is .05%

Yes. Another way of looking at it is there are 2^11 different combinations of outcomes of a coin flipped 11 times and heads (or tails) all 11 times is 1 in 2^11 or 1 in 2048 or as you’ve correctly pointed out .00049.

 

edited 11 not 21

Edited January 23, 2022 by GoBills808

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Bleed Bills Blue said:

"What are the odds of Allen going 10-0 tonight? According to Gino Biondini, chair of the department of mathematics at the University at Buffalo, 0.097656%."

 

They asked the chair of the math department at UB to calculate 0.5 to the 10th power?

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by HappyDays

[newcam2012]

Some concerns on defense. How do the Bills contain Kelce? He has hurt us in the past. With no Tre I'm afraid of Hills big play ability. McKinnon is rhe pass game is scary. Mahomes is clutch I'm afraid his legs will hurt tje Bills today.

 

The Bills offense looks equally dangerous. I don't think tjeir secondary can stop our talented pass catchers. Allen's legs will also be key. In the past, KC has given zero time for Allen to throw. Hooe this changes with the Bills having a serious run threat and screen game.

 

On paper this sure loooks juicy. Who would have thought both number 1 seeds would lose yesterday. 

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

 

What in the absolute hell. I'm sending this paragraph to Gino Biondini, I hope he gets back to me.

[GoBills808]

I think the point is that if he had called the sequence in preseason it would have been a lot more impressive

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

 

This is the not the Bills debate I expected to have today but I'm here for it. There's a difference between correctly guessing 10 flips in a row before the first flip, and guessing the 10th flip alone after guessing the first 9 flips correctly. The chance of Allen calling the coin flip correctly tonight is 50%, and if you think you have an argument against that think a little harder.

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by HappyDays

[ColoradoBills]

I have to go with a Sheldon Cooper reaction to this "debate".  "Yet another child left behind".

[Locomark]

Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. 

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Locomark said:

Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. 

Defer.  Let's not change who we are because we're playing the big bad chiefs.

[Locomark]

Just now, SWATeam said:

Defer.  Let's not change who we are because we're playing the big bad chiefs.

I agree, was just curious how others felt. 

[Big Turk]

Road teams 2 for 2. Chance to host the AFCCG on the line! Let's go Bills!

[Donuts and Doritos]

Text from a friend:

 

"For decades a small market team from one of the fastest shrinking areas of the country has excelled at disappointment. Though it is the only team in one of the most prominent states in the Union, like the area it embodies, this team is overlooked as the "other team" from the "other NY", Upstate NY. This team is a reflection of it's fans, poorer in success, but rich in heart, grit and an unparalleled pig headed determination. The unkind decades have relegated past glories to unimaginable fairy tales and scattered many to distant lands.
Yet we proud few remain year after year to beat our heads against the wall of doubt, in hopes that this year, yes this year, might be the year we break through the doorway of success. To be there for the glory of that moment, we return again and again to cheer on a little unheralded team from a forgotten place we call home. So against all odds, weather conditions and any rational thought there is no place that we happy few would rather be than "right here, right now", where we still Bill-ieve!"

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, Locomark said:

Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. 

 

You defer and get your defense to stop the first drive.  Being able to double dip is always the best answer.

[Freddie's Dead]

LOL on Countdown to Kickoff, they ask Steve Tasker if he's got a stogie for after the game.  He pulls out a nice 'gar about 7 inches long and 3/4" thick.  Then they ask him, what if we win?  He pulls out a schwantz about 10" long and 1 1/2" inches thick!!  Biggest 'gar I ever saw!!

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

20 minutes ago, Locomark said:

Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. 

The players and fans are always super amped at kickoff. So I would defer. After the half a lot of fans traditionally are still coming back to their seats and getting settled. Much less chaos to deal with.

 

Kick, stop them and withstand the emotional rush often seen the first half of the 1st quarter and you are in excellent shape.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 more hours 

[wppete]

It’s going to get messy my friends. 1:30 and I just cracked opened my first beer. Can’t wait any longer. Let’s go!!