The Ringer: is Regression coming for Josh Allen and the Bills?

[YoloinOhio]

 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

The thing is, when you factor out points that derive directly from turnovers, the Bills scored 14, 19, and 13 points vs. the Steelers in 2019, 2020, and 2021. And 7 of those 19 points in 2020 came after the Steelers punter shanked a punt that set the Bills up at the Steelers 40 yard line. Basically, the Steelers' defense is a terrible matchup for the Bills. 

[uninja]

Just no, the Steeler's play us tough and its been that way for the last 3 years. We came out with a W twice, and this time we didn't.

 

Football is a game of inches, and against the Steeler's that's especially true.

[GreggTX]

Josh will play as well as the OL allows him to, more or less. I figured we'd win 12 games including Pittsburgh so now itas 11 wins.

[Blainorama5]

Excellent article - thanks for posting.  A well reasoned SOBER perspective on what happened on Sunday and potentially a glimpse of what we may see more of...

[Patience]

Really good article that provides some useful context with which to evaluate Sunday's game.  The answer to whether Allen will regress is the answer to most questions, and is both infuriating and calming: only time will tell.  

[Jobot]

Such bold writing by the Ringer to publish this after a loss.. No balls to come out with this 'hot' take before week 1 eh?

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Jobot said:

Such bold writing by the Ringer to publish this after a loss.. No balls to come out with this 'hot' take before week 1 eh?

It was clearly written as a result of week 1… I’m not sure what you mean. The entire article analyzes his game vs the Steelers 

Edited September 15, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[First Round Bust]

good to see a analysis that is reasonable - give Pitts some credit they played well - in addition to their front 4thye changed to a zone defense scheme - a from their man-heavy schemes of the recent past led by safety Fitzpatick who played very well  - he had 10 combined tackles and was a ball-hawk all game...

[nucci]

good thing no one is overreacting after 1 game. We got beat. Steelers DL and LB beat the crap out of us

[Success]

I was ready to be dismissive of this as a typical overreaction/hot take - but it's a really detailed and thoughtful article.

 

I thought Allen might actually improve from last year, given the trajectory. That probably wasn't realistic.  Nor do I think he's really regressing in any kind of alarming way.  I still see him as one of the top QB's in the league.

 

The Bills will adjust. Other teams' fans like to say things like "the Steelers just gave the league the blueprint on how to beat the Bills," but as the article mentions, that won't be easy for most defenses to do.  At the end of the season, we may look back on Pittsburgh as one of the best defenses that we played.

 

[uninja]

8 minutes ago, Success said:

The Bills will adjust. Other teams' fans like to say things like "the Steelers just gave the league the blueprint on how to beat the Bills," but as the article mentions, that won't be easy for most defenses to do.  At the end of the season, we may look back on Pittsburgh as one of the best defenses that we played.

 

 

I think its a blueprint for now, but if Allen as proved anything it's that he self scouts really well. When he was a rookie he was awful under pressure and against the blitz. Fast forward to late 2019 and 2020, Allen became one of the best QBs under pressure, blitzing him was always a mistake and he was awesome against man coverage. Now defenses are playing a more zone based concept against our offense and it works as long as you have a line that can generate consistent pressure with just 4 and your backend holds up (which is much easier said than done, not a ton of defenses are that well built to pull it off).

 

The team preaches relentless improvement, and I'm sure McDermott, Allen and Daboll are reviewing the tape and looking at offensive concepts that can better mitigate that style of defensive play.

[mushypeaches]

This week will be telling for sure

 

[Captain_Quint]

I honestly think that the Steelers game was us shaking the cobwebs off, and getting our conditioning in order. I expect another sluggish game this week in Miami, in 90 degree heat/humidity. Then we have Tennessee and KC to worry about in weeks 4 and 5. 

 

All that said, I think we go on a hot streak again this season after the bye. We have too much talent on the field and too many talented coaches to not make that happen in what should be a banner year for us. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

In the words of Aaron Rodgers 

 

R E L A X

 

who BTW got blown out on Sunday 

[JESSEFEFFER]

59 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing is, when you factor out points that derive directly from turnovers, the Bills scored 14, 19, and 13 points vs. the Steelers in 2019, 2020, and 2021. And 7 of those 19 points in 2020 came after the Steelers punter shanked a punt that set the Bills up at the Steelers 40 yard line. Basically, the Steelers' defense is a terrible matchup for the Bills. 

 

I think the article was fair and largely positive but lacked the historical perspective you have provided here.  It's an A+ point.

[theRalph]

McDermott is now 3-2 in openers — but there is a fat asterisk on this record as the three wins came against the eventual 7-9, 4-12, and 2-14 Jets. And the Bills had to come back from 16 down in one of those.

 

Pittsburgh's defense is very good and this is no surprise, nor is a Bills opening day loss in consideration of McDermotts game 1 record.

 

Of the 110 Superbowl teams, 20 have dropped their opener.  I'm just not that worried.

 

[Patrick Duffy]

It's harder to pass when the D is dropping 6 DBs every play since they know Bills won't run the ball... go figure

[FilthyBeast]

I rewatched the game and still don't feel any better about the coaching, oline, Allen, etc. It was just a complete mess and they truly looked like a team that believed the media hype and thought they could do whatever they wanted to without making adjustments to their game plan.

 

I will say the defense was pretty solid but shades of years past in that they collapsed when it mattered most in crunch time, and still no real consistent pass rush with front four and not much blitzing either when their were opportunities to do so.

 

But still waiting to see what happens this week before completely panic settles in especially in regards to Allen and the extension which at least personally I wanted to wait another year for.

 

 

[TBBills]

Week 1 of overreacting... Like I said before they didn't say this after Josh Allen game against the Steelers last year.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing is, when you factor out points that derive directly from turnovers, the Bills scored 14, 19, and 13 points vs. the Steelers in 2019, 2020, and 2021. And 7 of those 19 points in 2020 came after the Steelers punter shanked a punt that set the Bills up at the Steelers 40 yard line. Basically, the Steelers' defense is a terrible matchup for the Bills. 

 

This is a very very good point.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, uninja said:

Just no, the Steeler's play us tough and its been that way for the last 3 years. We came out with a W twice, and this time we didn't.

 

Football is a game of inches, and against the Steeler's that's especially true.

The Steelers probably have the top front 7 in football. Comparing our OL play Sunday to KC's injury depleted SB OL performance is accurate. I hate 5 wide against an excellent pass rush. I hate calling 7 designed qb draws when Singletary looks improved. Knox went 4-4 so figure a way to make him your 5th wr available to occassionally chip rushers. Our OL is mediocre and that's not going to magically change throughout the season. 

[MJS]

Crazy overreaction after one game.

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

Josh will play as well as the OL allows him to, more or less. I figured we'd win 12 games including Pittsburgh so now itas 11 wins.

This loss doesn't change my 13-4 prediction. 

 

I predicted losses to Steelers and Washington and that this kind of talk would start from the media 😄

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/233844-predict-the-season/?do=findComment&comment=7250569

[LABILLBACKER]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Except he regressed in deep ball throwing throughout the 2020 season… he looked much improved in the beginning of last season with the deep ball, and then his inconsistency with it persisted throughout the season so I’m not sure what the author is talking about….. and then he missed a prime example deep throw Sunday in which he overthrew his receiver(per the norm)…. He excelled at intermediate passes throughout the year not deep passes.

 

I just don't understand why he doesn't fix his flat trajectory on all his deep throws. I find it impossible someone hasn't discussed this with him. We're going on year 4 and that canon arm refuses to add some ARC? That overthrow to Sanders was brutal. And all his deep ball throws are overthrows (with the exception of the Clay play).

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I just don't understand why he doesn't fix his flat trajectory on all his deep throws. I find it impossible someone hasn't discussed this with him. We're going on year 4 and that canon arm refuses to add some ARC? That overthrow to Sanders was brutal. And all his deep ball throws are overthrows (with the exception of the Clay play).

 

Unfortunately this may be something that is never fixed with Allen which is hindsight is another legitimate reason that his extension may have been premature.

 

A true elite QB is going to hit those type of passes more times than not which is why Mahomes, Rogers, Brady, etc are truly deserving of their MVP status. For whatever reason Allen is just can't do it even when a guy is wide open, still time for it to change though.

[Jobot]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

It was clearly written as a result of week 1… I’m not sure what you mean. The entire article analyzes his game vs the Steelers 

 

I guess the headline just got me.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Unfortunately this may be something that is never fixed with Allen which is hindsight is another legitimate reason that his extension may have been premature.

 

A true elite QB is going to hit those type of passes more times than not which is why Mahomes, Rogers, Brady, etc are truly deserving of their MVP status. For whatever reason Allen is just can't do it even when a guy is wide open, still time for it to change though.

Well Jordan Palmer might want to put this issue all the way to the top next year for Josh. 

[Nineforty]

% of people who commented on this thread who I believe didn't read more than 50% of the article is high. 

[patzen]

I agree with his overall premise that Josh regressing could mean just statistical regression and not regression of his play as a whole. But I don't necessarily agree with his assumption that Josh's stats are going to regress even after his week 1 performance. Last year Aaron Rodgers was 16/35 for 160 yards and two picks against Tampa Bay and still won MVP with one of his finest seasons ever. Also last season Tampa Bay was throttled 38-3 against New Orleans and went on to win the Super Bowl. Sometimes bad games are just bad games. Josh could still have an unbelievable statistical season. We just don't know yet.

[dave mcbride]

54 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Except he regressed in deep ball throwing throughout the 2020 season… he looked much improved in the beginning of last season with the deep ball, and then his inconsistency with it persisted throughout the season so I’m not sure what the author is talking about….. and then he missed a prime example deep throw Sunday in which he overthrew his receiver(per the norm)…. He excelled at intermediate passes throughout the year not deep passes.

 

Deep outs on a rope and the like factor into those stats; it's throws 20 yards and beyond. He's great at those. His issue is bombs -- throws where you throw it deep, vertically, and beyond a receiver with the intention that he'll catch up to it while he runs to the EZ. If you did it just on bombs, my guess is that his numbers would look pretty poor. 

Edited September 15, 2021 by dave mcbride

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing is, when you factor out points that derive directly from turnovers, the Bills scored 14, 19, and 13 points vs. the Steelers in 2019, 2020, and 2021. And 7 of those 19 points in 2020 came after the Steelers punter shanked a punt that set the Bills up at the Steelers 40 yard line. Basically, the Steelers' defense is a terrible matchup for the Bills. 

 

True but that's also because Daboll refuses to adjust his game plan based on the opponent. He just expects his guys to win their matchups and if they don't oh well. When facing a front 4 like Pittsburgh he has to change the protection. He'll have more chances to prove he can adjust against Washington and Tampa Bay. I'm not confident he will.

[Dablitzkrieg]

Whenever I hear,  the "ringer" I immediately think of the Johnny Knoxville movie where he pretends to be mentally ######ed to get into the special Olympics.  I think this article fits perfect. 

[Lofton80]

Watching those clips, Feliciano did not offer much resistance at all. Wow.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Crazy overreaction after one game.

 

No a crazy overreaction would be saying they are going to go 3-14.

 

People are concerned after the loss.........it was a bad performance under ideal conditions for a decisive victory by units and players expected to play much better..........the criticism/questioning is mostly warranted.

 

But then you have people like yourself who can't process people discussing that ON A MESSAGE BOARD where people discuss the Bills.

 

Wondering if they will regress after basically one season where they were a SB contender is reasonable............every year for decades at least one of the 4 championship game teams from the season prior has missed the playoffs the following season.   

 

[MJS]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

No a crazy overreaction would be saying they are going to go 3-14.

 

People are concerned after the loss.........it was a bad performance under ideal conditions for a decisive victory by units and players expected to play much better..........the criticism/questioning is mostly warranted.

 

But then you have people like yourself who can't process people discussing that ON A MESSAGE BOARD where people discuss the Bills.

 

Wondering if they will regress after basically one season where they were a SB contender is reasonable............every year for decades at least one of the 4 championship game teams from the season prior has missed the playoffs the following season.   

 

Well, you are always in crazy overreaction mode, so nothing new here.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I just don't understand why he doesn't fix his flat trajectory on all his deep throws. I find it impossible someone hasn't discussed this with him. We're going on year 4 and that canon arm refuses to add some ARC? That overthrow to Sanders was brutal. And all his deep ball throws are overthrows (with the exception of the Clay play).

In regard to adding ARC to his throw.  I'm not sure how much arc he should be adding when the throw was probably somewhere between a 40-45 degree angle.

 

And he missed him by about a yard a half throwing it roughly 60 yards.

 

I'm not disagreeing that he does throw more fast balls than floaters like Wilson does but this play probably was one of those "just missed it" throws with good arc on the ball.

Edited September 15, 2021 by The Wiz

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Wondering if they will regress after basically one season where they were a SB contender is reasonable............every year for decades at least one of the 4 championship game teams from the season prior has missed the playoffs the following season

Yeah but kinda have to take into consideration this 1 game and 1st of the season was against the Steelers. I mean they are known to be a tough team. imo it's nothing to be concerned about just yet.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Well, you are always in crazy overreaction mode, so nothing new here.

 

 

You are the guy who offers no football discussion on a football message board.............just snark and other stupid comments that you could make ANYWHERE:

 

John Wawrow:  "my favorite noodle rock band just put out a disappointing album"

MJS:  "Crazy overreaction".

 

That kind of douchebot like posting contributes nothing to the forum.

 

 

[Augie]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Crazy overreaction after one game.

 

…and not the least bit unexpected. It’s what people do. I’ll remain calm and look forward to improvements.