Don Otreply Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said: Serious question, besides Brady what other QB has taken a discount contract? Not Mahomes, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, or Brees. Not even Ryan. I cant think of another. It just isn't a thing that happens outside of Brady-Belichick And of them how many have won an additional Super Bowl after the non discount contract? A minority of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: If it’s anything under 40 AAV you sprint to the printer Whoa there. That’s nuts unless it’s a 10 year extension structured like Mahomes’ deal. Even Mahomes is only averaging $28.3M AAV over the next 5 seasons. Per Spotrac Mahomes 2020-2024 seasons have a cash payout of $141.5M $28.3M/5=$28.3M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 A lot of wishful and selfish thinking in this thread. We'd all love for Josh to give the team a discount, but no way should he. Nor should he roll us over the coals. But there is no reason for a professional athlete playing in a multi-Billion dollar league, risking his body every week, should give his employer a discount. We can sign him to a fair deal and still have money to build the team around him. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, BarleyNY said: The sweet spot for young QB extensions is either the offseason before the final year of their rookie deal or the offseason before their 5th year option (assuming they were a first round pick). Let this season play out. If we are still sold on him, then move forward. If there is a cause for concern - whether it is play or COVID related - then we have another season thanks to the fifth year option. It’s just not a good idea to push things down the road so far that we are looking at possibly having to use the franchise tag. Yes. I would go so far as to say that the OR (before their 5th year option) is more for teams not quite sure about the QB OR the QB thinking they deserve more money than was offered (aka Dak). The recent QBs using the norm you described are: Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes ALL had their 5th year options picked up in April (respectively to the year drafted). ALL signed a contract EXTENSION (I capitalize this because it's just the way it's done.) before the start of their last year of the rookie contract. Josh Allen will follow EXACTLY this scenario. He will not hold out and the only way Beane and OBD do not follow the norm will be if he suffers a devastating injury or the wheels completely fall off in the next 7 games (which will not happen). The average per year will be 40 million (plus of minus a couple million) once again depending on the results of this season. The amount guaranteed will probably be an average of what the 4 other QBs got. The only variables in this scenario are: 1. How long is the contract? I think a minimum of 5 and maybe more. 2. How OBD wants to roll out the yearly cap hit. They have a lot of options there. So @BarleyNY, you and I will be right and any deviation of that is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Whoa there. That’s nuts unless it’s a 10 year extension structured like Mahomes’ deal. Even Mahomes is only averaging $28.3M AAV over the next 5 seasons. Per Spotrac Mahomes 2020-2024 seasons have a cash payout of $141.5M $28.3M/5=$28.3M Mahomes new money average was right around 40 IIRC. You know that everyone’s price is going to go up once the COVIDs clear up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Mahomes new money average was right around 40 IIRC. You know that everyone’s price is going to go up once the COVIDs clear up. His new money was 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: His new money was 45. Here was my breakdown of it at the time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Yes. I would go so far as to say that the OR (before their 5th year option) is more for teams not quite sure about the QB OR the QB thinking they deserve more money than was offered (aka Dak). The recent QBs using the norm you described are: Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes ALL had their 5th year options picked up in April (respectively to the year drafted). ALL signed a contract EXTENSION (I capitalize this because it's just the way it's done.) before the start of their last year of the rookie contract. Josh Allen will follow EXACTLY this scenario. He will not hold out and the only way Beane and OBD do not follow the norm will be if he suffers a devastating injury or the wheels completely fall off in the next 7 games (which will not happen). The average per year will be 40 million (plus of minus a couple million) once again depending on the results of this season. The amount guaranteed will probably be an average of what the 4 other QBs got. The only variables in this scenario are: 1. How long is the contract? I think a minimum of 5 and maybe more. 2. How OBD wants to roll out the yearly cap hit. They have a lot of options there. So @BarleyNY, you and I will be right and any deviation of that is a long shot. I agree. The “before the 5th year option season” I would pertain to some bad situations. I don’t want to go too far down these roads, but the scenarios (however unlikely) where I’d kick the can down the road one more season are: - catastrophic injury this season or any injury that keeps Allen from playing in the playoffs - cancellation of season/playoffs due to COVID - significant fall off of Allen’s performance in regular season - failure of Allen to perform under pressure in playoffs I do not expect those to be issues, but if they are then I’m giving it one more season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said: If he's a top 8 QB by the end of NEXT year? Who are the 8+ ahead of him NOW? I’ve got him as a tier 2 guy. I think you could make an argument to shuffle any of them around a little, but this is how I have them right now, based on current ability/production. Tier 1: Maholmes Wilson Rodgers Tier 2: Breese Brady Roethlisberger Allen Watson Burrow (yes, I have him here after half a year, sue me) Dak (Healthy) Jackson (results, not prototypes, the guy is the MVP for a reason) Tier 2.5 Murray Ryan Stafford Tannehill Carr Goff Tier 3: Bridgewater Cousins Jimmy G Herbert Wentz Fitz Rivers The rest are place holders or so often injured (Darnold) they don’t really matter and Tua doesn’t have enough work in for me to try to place him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Mahomes new money average was right around 40 IIRC. You know that everyone’s price is going to go up once the COVIDs clear up. That’s fair, and there’s a lot of variables to any deal like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Here was my breakdown of it at the time: You are correct. How fans want to parse out the deals of all franchise QB post rookie contracts is a fun way to look at. If I was to predict (with the Covid stuff included) Josh Allen's cap hits it would be like this. 2021: $7 million (last year of rookie deal) 2022: $27 million (5th year option. Mahomes got $24.8 but his contract and Watson's will drive that up) 2023: 1st year of new money (lets say it's 40 average) will be about 80% of $40) - $32 Million 2024: 2nd year of new money (90% of average) - $36 Million 2025 : 3rd year of new money (100% of average) - $40 Million 2026: 4th year of new money (110% of average) - 44 Million 2027: 5th year of new money (120% of average) - 48 Million I'm not saying this will be exact but this is how all the QB 2nd contract Franchise QBs are structured. I don't think I'm smarter than anyone I'm just going by the norm. 11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: I agree. The “before the 5th year option season” I would pertain to some bad situations. I don’t want to go too far down these roads, but the scenarios (however unlikely) where I’d kick the can down the road one more season are: - catastrophic injury this season or any injury that keeps Allen from playing in the playoffs - cancellation of season/playoffs due to COVID - significant fall off of Allen’s performance in regular season - failure of Allen to perform under pressure in playoffs I do not expect those to be issues, but if they are then I’m giving it one more season. Exactly. I would add that its probably what every team thinks using the norm. The only other deviation is Josh holding out like Dak. I give that chance at less than 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 There are two more years before you have to think about the big, long-term contract. I'm a huge Josh Allen supporter after NOT being a fan of the Draft pick on that fateful April night. Truth is, and I've said it a few times on this board, that I wanted either Darnold or Rosen depending on how the board fell. Once Darnold was gone, I was hoping for Rosen but after taking a few minutes to talk to myself (that happens a lot), I had already put my trust in Beane and his team of scouts and evaluators so I decided to - yes - Trust the Process. Every moment after that, I kept hoping and believing that it was the right pick and at the end of his first year, I was convinced of it....the final 4 games of that year is what really sold me. Then, Beane et. al. put some good Offensive Linemen in for Josh, brought in Smoke and Beasley and we saw marked improvement. Then, with Diggs, the same O-line and another Off-season of dedication to mechanics and improvement, I had high hopes and so far, it's been better than advertised. I said all of that to say, you keep the team friendly contracts when you can - and presuming the Bills exercise the 5th year option on Josh, you've got two more seasons before you have to put pen to paper on a mega-deal. Most likely, they get it done between the 4th and 5th year with some team Cap help. But also as others have said, I don't think Josh is going to drain the Pegulas dry. I definitely see him being paid around the 5th best QB in the league if he continues on his trajectory and pace, but I can see a slight reduction albeit still pretty darn expensive (as it should be) contract to help him and the team. Right now that is Goff at $33 million, best I can see from a quick Google search and while Josh is almost certain to get a little more than that, unless like Mahomes he wins a Super Bowl and MVP (crossing my fingers and praying again), then around $37-$38 million in 2022 makes sense to me. Plus, the Cap is scheduled to go down next year for the first time but I think if life returns to normal, it goes up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Doc said: I also think he would take a discount. But he's got an agent... And....? They all have an agent they pay to get them max money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigdaddyinOrlando Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 (edited) I’m sure and hope he gets what he wants and the team wants but it would be nice to see the NFL in the next bargaining agreement have the QB contract count only 50% of the charge against the cap that would allow teams to keep and pay most players as they deserve and not have to turn over the roster and have to use the hope and pray method once you start paying the QB. Edited November 12, 2020 by BigdaddyinOrlando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharky7337 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Hes had 5 really good games in 2.5 years. I dont think we have seen enough to make a estimate yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: And....? They all have an agent they pay to get them max money. Not all players and agents look solely for max money. I don't know what type of agent Josh has, but if he's a "we have to get max money" guy, it will likely only drive his price up even if Josh wants to take a discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gen2 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 It all depends on what motivates him, if his goal is to make as much money as humanly possible he could probably "break" the team. If his motivation is to be the foundation of a dynasty, he'll still make a butt ton of money, but it will be on a team friendly deal. One can't fault him for either approach, it all depends on what's important to him. I think the "family atmosphere" of the team appeals to him and I think the outpouring of sympathy by the fans over his grandmothers death appeals to him, and I think the people of western New York in general appeals to him. IMHO it all boils down to the front office's attitude toward his next contract. If they approach it like a business decision and they refuse to pay him a penny more than they need to sooner than they need to, he'd be wise to seek a market value deal (which is probably more than the Bills are willing to pay). If the front office approaches him as early as allows to "reward" his growth, he'd be wise to seek a team friendly deal that would preclude Beane managing the remaining roster to accommodate Allen's contract. I'll admit I'm an old fogey and the dollar amounts they throw around these days just boggles my mind. I remember my dad complaining that when the Jets paid Namath $250,000 it would ruin the game of football because the players were getting paid so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, Doc said: Not all players and agents look solely for max money. I don't know what type of agent Josh has, but if he's a "we have to get max money" guy, it will likely only drive his price up even if Josh wants to take a discount. Say what? Agents do their client's bidding. They can't argue against the client's wishes doc. The client signs the contract that the client agrees to, not the agent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Mahomes is a SB winner and a league MVP. There is no reason to think Allen's next contract is going to be anywhere near Mahomes, unless he matches those accomplishments in the next 1-2 years or prior to negotiations beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Josh seems to be a humble kid who's only concern is to be great at what he does. I can totally see him taking a team flexible deal to make sure they have the money to keep pieces around him in the same manner Brady did in NE. It will also depend on the overall impact of Covid on the salary cap as well. Say things start to return to a bit of normal next year, I could see Josh taking less overall $$$ with more of it being guaranteed. Something like 5 years, in the $180,000,000 range with $160,000,000 of it being guaranteed. That would also give him the chance to get one more big contract while in his prime. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPicc2114 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Id say like a 10 year 375mil with incentives like MVP, Super Bowl appearance/ Win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Can they really afford to pay him anything this offseason or at the start of next season if the cap really dips to $175,000,000? Probably not. I dont think he will get what Mahomes got a year, because he isnt Mahomes. However you have to think he makes 37-40 Million once the cap goes back up to 198.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, H2o said: Josh seems to be a humble kid who's only concern is to be great at what he does. I can totally see him taking a team flexible deal to make sure they have the money to keep pieces around him in the same manner Brady did in NE. It will also depend on the overall impact of Covid on the salary cap as well. Say things start to return to a bit of normal next year, I could see Josh taking less overall $$$ with more of it being guaranteed. Something like 5 years, in the $180,000,000 range with $160,000,000 of it being guaranteed. That would also give him the chance to get one more big contract while in his prime. We shall see. I can kind of see this not so much taking a discount so much as structuring it so they can stay more competitive Josh wants to win and is incredibly competitive so I could see him working things in a way to keep the team better. The idea of him just taking a discount though I think is a little much how many people have even done that/do that in the NFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 I cannot see him taking a team friendly deal but I can absolutely see him restructuring every year to help Beane out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffBillsForLife Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Nothing says "Buffalo Bills fanbase" like having the very first reply talk about Allen taking a hometown discount. If he keeps this level of play up the whole year and we win a playoff game, pay the man whatever he wants as long as it's less than Mahomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 5 hours ago, Doc said: Yup. That's why I don't think an extension is coming after this off-season. it would be nice to see a commitment but there are so many ways to play with $. Wait til the end of next season and see how to manage the 2022 cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: it would be nice to see a commitment but there are so many ways to play with $. Wait til the end of next season and see how to manage the 2022 cap. I'm sure they'll verbally commit to Josh and tell him they'll take care of you when they have the cap space. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 At least that’s what Dr. Weo said in his evil lair. 😏 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Back the Blue said: Mahomes is a SB winner and a league MVP. There is no reason to think Allen's next contract is going to be anywhere near Mahomes, unless he matches those accomplishments in the next 1-2 years or prior to negotiations beginning. Deshaun Watson just signed for new money at $39 Million per year. He hasn't won a Super Bowl or an MVP. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just a thought here, Jim Kelly opted for the USFL because of the past history of the Bills owner reluctance to pay players. Tom Cousineau anyone? The difference came down to like 10k. That, and the fact that the then current GM Stew Barber set up a dinner for the player and agent and then never showed up, no call, nothing. Later on when Bill Polian got working to bring in Kelly to Buffalo after the USFL fell, several owners were after Jim Kelly. He signed in Buffalo because they made him the highest paid QB in the league. As far as Josh Allen goes... I could be wrong, but my take is money is not the most important thing to this young man. He wants to win and as long as the GM keeps building the offense for the Bills to win I see Allen being happy in Buffalo. 40 minutes ago, Doc said: I'm sure they'll verbally commit to Josh and tell him they'll take care of you when they have the cap space. This. After that, whatever it takes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da webster guy Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 hours ago, JMF2006 said: I think he is the type of player that will take a team friendly deal and not pull a Dak. 100% He and Dak are both great guys but one organization treats you like you work for them and the other treats players like family. If you were $$$ set for life either way where would you rather play. 11 hours ago, Rock'em Sock'em said: 2021 - Under rookie contract 2022 - 5th year option 2023 - Guessing the franchise tag will be around $35M+, hard to say. If the level of his play continues to escalate, I'd hope a 5-year $200M contract extension starting in 2023 mostly guaranteed would be about right and would allow Josh to hit FA at least one more time while still in his prime. Plus if Josh keeps playing well he gets into the $7-15m per year endorsement game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Digg? Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said: Nothing says "Buffalo Bills fanbase" like having the very first reply talk about Allen taking a hometown discount. If he keeps this level of play up the whole year and we win a playoff game, pay the man whatever he wants as long as it's less than Mahomes. All of this-it’s not Josh’s job or responsibility to figure out how to make the cap work, that’s the job of the front office. I don’t like people saying “I see Josh as a guy who wants to win so he will take less, as that implies that Mahomes, Brees, Wilson, Watson, etc aren’t team leaders. If Josh plays well, pay him what he is worth, and let the front office guys figure out how to make it work. The other thing is you also don’t want to be known as a team that tries to keep their guys with discounts-not good for future business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I have zero idea what the contact will look like but I know this: Josh should take what he can get when he can get it. If he factors into that a ‘discount’ to allow himself better protection and better receivers, so be it. Here’s what I do ‘know’: he is the right QB for this team and this city/region//Bills Mafia Nation. He is absolutely worth keeping. I, for one, love the ‘kid’. His heart is steel and his will is even harder (TM). He is driven like very few others. People talk about his ‘ceiling’. F**k ceilings!!!! He doesn’t see one so why should we???? Because of national pundits? I don’t think so. He is the right man for the right job and let’s see how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I am personally a “be happy” over a “be rich” guy, as long as you have enough. He will have generational wealth regardless. I personally would pick the best situation for me rather than taking the highest offer, as long as it’s reasonable. Taking TOO much depletes what is around you, and could make your life less enjoyable going forward. I’ve had good jobs and great jobs, and I’ve had bad jobs. Few things suck more than a lousy work situation. Let Josh be Josh, and whatever he decides is best for him I will support. By all accounts he’s a fine young man. HOWEVER.......go to an AFCE rival and all bets are off! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaoulDuke79 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 9 hours ago, DCofNC said: I’ve got him as a tier 2 guy. I think you could make an argument to shuffle any of them around a little, but this is how I have them right now, based on current ability/production. Tier 1: Maholmes Wilson Rodgers Tier 2: Breese Brady Roethlisberger Allen Watson Burrow (yes, I have him here after half a year, sue me) Dak (Healthy) Jackson (results, not prototypes, the guy is the MVP for a reason) Tier 2.5 Murray Ryan Stafford Tannehill Carr Goff Tier 3: Bridgewater Cousins Jimmy G Herbert Wentz Fitz Rivers The rest are place holders or so often injured (Darnold) they don’t really matter and Tua doesn’t have enough work in for me to try to place him. I think this is a solid list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said: Nothing says "Buffalo Bills fanbase" like having the very first reply talk about Allen taking a hometown discount. If he keeps this level of play up the whole year and we win a playoff game, pay the man whatever he wants as long as it's less than Mahomes. Completely agree. If the organization doesn't wrap him up for 10 years /$360M + incentives they're blowin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 My estimate is based on Josh giving a hometown discount- 10 years 350 million, with 200 million guaranteed and 300 million guaranteed by year 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 hour ago, RaoulDuke79 said: I think this is a solid list. Thanks, I try to be objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 “If he’s a too 8 QB by next year”? 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 How much will his 5th year option be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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