Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs

[Mango]

I think people get worked up by total cash. But by percent of the cap not much has changed. Kelly made about $3.1M per year on a $35M cap. Just under 10%. Outside of 5-ish QB’s that’s right around where the bulk of QB’s are. 
 

Given the rule changes it is not surprising that passers have creeped up a few points, but it’s not out of the ordinary. 

[NewEra]

43 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Fortunately I have a feeling Allen will take a more team friendly contract.  Don't get me wrong he'll get paid but he will leave a larger slice of the pie for other players.  Part of Brady's greatness was that he was never the highest paid QB in the league.  I could be wrong but I don't think he was for a single year.

I hope you’re right!  Under 40 mill would be a blessing

[BillsfaninSB]

Correct me if I’m wrong but does Beane have to decide this March whether or not to pick up Josh’s 5th year? 
 

If he doesn’t they only have two choices.  Extend him or take their chances on year 4 where he can walk at the completion. 

[Jerome007]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

So...to summarize:

 

Don't overpay mediocre quarterbacks (like Tannehill and Goff, except that Tannehill and Goff are playing awesome football and their teams are doing well). Pay elite quarterbacks (like Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes, obviously). 

 

So it's as simple as just having a top-10 pick and hitting on one of the two good QBs each year in the draft, and unless the guy is elite move on after the rookie deal (with that valuable top-10 or top-5 or top-2 pick that every team has when they need a QB).

I don't know if you're sarcastic or not, but yes ha ha. The trap is "good/very good but not great/elite" QBs. They're tough to fire or let go, but they are not good enough for the money of their non-rookie contracts. But what is more impactful than a great QB? Nothing.

 JJ watt and Darnold are beasts but 10 QBs at least are more important than them for the success of their team. It's just the way it is.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

 

In my opinion what really murders franchises is huge 2nd QB contacts to marginal type players that can't elevate the team on their own and need good to great players around them to consistently win.   When you give the big 2nd contract to someone like a Tannerhill in Miami (though he's not looking so marginal now in Tenn) you can't sign enough good players to make the team good.  Didn't we give both Fitz and T Edwards second contracts?  But there's been plenty of these huge contracts given for marginal players.  On the other hand doubt Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning's contract don't hurt the franchise as they can carry the team on their own for the most part.

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

 

This is quite possibly the worst take ever. 

The #1 priority for every single NFL franchise is to draft a great QB and keep him until he retires.

I just looked at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners and 17 of them had a good veteran Franchise QB at the helm.

 

Bad take.

Agree, you have to overpay for an average QB, that’s just the nature of the beast. It’s like how most people overpay for an average home in an average suburb. They do so to maintain a lifestyle in a decent neighborhood. QB play is similar. If you have an average QB, you must pay the price to maintain average because the other options could be far worse. This forces teams to overpay. If we want to question the system that’s fine, but it’s not reasonable to say it’s easy to replace an average QB. Herbert might pass for 5K yards, but those numbers are just part of the story. Veteran QB’s are invaluable and many highly sought rookie QB’s become busts. The idea of just letting a QB go because they cost too much isn’t an option imo. All of this is economically driven. QB’s are the most important part of the modern NFL, and prices of the most important necessities become inflated. That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth paying the QB. Dislike the price tag all you must, but you really have no option. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by SirAndrew

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

  these contracts murder franchises.  

I disagree. Not having a franchise QB murders a franchise. We have lived through that for over 20 years. I DO agree that it is important capitalize on the rookie contract of a good, young QB, but typically the elite franchises find a way to build around expensive QB’s for 10+ years.  It is a very rare QB who can win a Super Bowl in their rookie contract. I’d rather we take our chances paying (over-paying?) Josh Allen and building around him, rather than suffer though another 20 plus seasons looking for the next guy.  

[Da webster guy]

2 hours ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

 

Exactly.

 

It's like you have to commit to them in that 3rd/4th season, but these $30M+ deals are basically saying your defense is probably gonna suck for the next 5 years.   Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit etc.

 

Not as bad as huge guaranteed money deals to running backs like Zeke, Gurley, LeVeon though.  Thats just stupidity.

 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

The problem is the NFLPA, agents and the league expects UFAs to command top dollar if they're in the discussion of next great one see Tre White, Ramsey, Humphries as examples at CB. Each of them ended up the top paid at their position when they're contract ran out because that's how the system "works". TBH I think QBs earn way too much and it be awesome to get Josh at a lower rate than top dollar but he's likely going to get it if he keeps putting up numbers like he is this year and we keep on winning. 

[HardyBoy]

42 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

I am not saying they were correct but the Bills absolutely tried to get a "real" quarterback in here.  Why they moved up for JP Losman and why they landed Drew Bledsoe.

 

Bledsoe was a stop gap short term, and I'll definitely give you Losman, that was a good QB draft and they just missed out on big ben, and JP very well could have been ruined by the org more than being a bust.

 

Who were the available qbs the year they drafted Mike Williams?

 

Edit: ooff, bad qb draft. David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey in the first round...amazing talent at other positions scattered in that first round though.

Edited October 29, 2020 by HardyBoy

[Weatherman]

1 hour ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Make this guy GM 

We’ve all ready had plenty of these GMs, but they were more don’t pay than don’t over pay anyone.

[The Jokeman]

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

In my opinion what really murders franchises is huge 2nd QB contacts to marginal type players that can't elevate the team on their own and need good to great players around them to consistently win.   When you give the big 2nd contract to someone like a Tannerhill in Miami (though he's not looking so marginal now in Tenn) you can't sign enough good players to make the team good.  Didn't we give both Fitz and T Edwards second contracts?  But there's been plenty of these huge contracts given for marginal players.  On the other hand doubt Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning's contract don't hurt the franchise as they can carry the team on their own for the most part.

Trent only played played 3.5 years here so no he never saw a second contract with us. Fitz got a second contract yes. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Trent only played played 3.5 years here so no he never saw a second contract with us. Fitz got a second contract yes. 

 

That's what I thought, but also seemed to recall paying him more then his performance tanked, guess I was just thinking of Fitz.

[Mat68]

Top 5 or 10 you must.  15 probably?  Outdide of that you have a point.  Allen has played like a top 5 qb this year.  He finishes the same way you pay him.  

[unbillievable]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No.  I said installed in the Cap.  In other words, everything else remains the same and the player maximum is added to it.  In other words next year your QB can only make 25 mil and you still can't pay out more than the 175 mil cap.

You can't have 6 players making 25 mil because you would only have 25 mil to spend on the ton of other players you need for a football team.  This is Football where you probably can't play a single game without at least 23 guys probably 24.

That's the NBA model.

Individuals have a player CAP within the team CAP.

The players no longer pursue the money and are drawn to bigger markets.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Don't think it's a bad take.

 

Isn't the list of super bowl winning qbs the last 20 years basically Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Wilson and Mahomes? I know there's a random Foles mixed in every now and then, but the vast majority of super bowls the last 20 years have been won by very few QBs, and they're the elite of elite.

 

I think the point is the goal is to get one of those elite qbs (which I am hoping Allen is), if you don't think you did, don't compound the mistake and give out an elite level contract.

 

Edit: I left off Brees. Other than that the only three other winning qbs since 2000 have been Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles.

 

Exactly.  Those are the guys you give the big $ to because they all (you can make a case against Eli) make the players around them better.  To use the baseball metric, those guys have a very high WAR.

 

That defines the current Dak Prescott conundrum, and is the critical evaluation that must take place on Josh Allen over the next year and a half.  I'm optimistic Josh can reach the top level of the QB position, but if the Bills conclude otherwise they have to find the courage to let him walk.

[PetermansRedemption]

20 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

We’ve all ready had plenty of these GMs, but they were more don’t pay than don’t over pay anyone.

Can’t overpay someone if you don’t pay anyone 🤔 

Edited October 29, 2020 by PetermansRedemption

[Ray Finkel]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Yup.  Similar to where the cowboys are with dak. He’s better than wentz and goff but is he worth spending 35+ mill a year?  I’d pass and focus my attention on acquiring an elite QB.  Acquiring one is easier said than done, but wallowing around 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 every year is the worst place a team can be imo.  I’d rather move on from a non elite QB if the want 25 mill+,
 

Not for a guy who didn’t get you to the playoffs last year.

[unbillievable]

How many teams have regretted letting a QB go to free agency? (this millennium)

Drew Brees to Saints

Kurt Warner to Cardinals

Ryan Tannehil?

 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

I think what it shows is a couple of things.  Offenses are making transitions much easier from college to pro for most QB's coming in, and scouts have a severe lack of ability to project how college QBs will turn out in the NFL these days, maybe now more than ever.

 

Burrow was very hard to know what to make out of...he obliterated the SEC last year but was just OK the year before.  So some weren't sure if the player they saw last year was the player they were going to get in the NFL.  I think he has answered that question pretty emphatically already.  Herbert was touted as the #1 pick in some circles before Burrow's phenomenal season wrestled that away from him, but he had a great season last year as well with 32 TDs and 6 INTs following a very good junior year of 29 TDs and 8 INTs. He also completed almost 67% of his passes.

 

I just think scouts are still trying to adjust to how college QBs fit the new NFL, and to be honest most scouts were not very good with QB's before this in the old NFL.  I mean how the hell does Tom Brady get picked in the 6th round otherwise?

 

The difference now between all these QBs that put up stats is how they do when the game is on the line and how their play translates into wins.  Players like Prescott have stats all day but it has never translated into wins really.  Same for Cousins for most of his career. The key is going to be able to figure out what players are going to win you games and not just put up stats now because it looks like every QB will be able to do that.  

 

For my money there are few QBs I would rather have right now than Allen...the dude is a baller and he makes things happen.  Maybe Wilson and Mahomes...Rodgers and Roethlesberger are too old for this conversation.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by matter2003

[HardyBoy]

11 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Exactly.  Those are the guys you give the big $ to because they all (you can make a case against Eli) make the players around them better.  To use the baseball metric, those guys have a very high WAR.

 

That defines the current Dak Prescott conundrum, and is the critical evaluation that must take place on Josh Allen over the next year and a half.  I'm optimistic Josh can reach the top level of the QB position, but if the Bills conclude otherwise they have to find the courage to let him walk.

 

I have no basis of football understanding at an actual Xs and Os level to know if what I'm saying makes sense, but I feel it's more elite qbs can play at an elite level in various different systems and high level schemes and that allows coaches to design offensive gameplans that take advantage of the actual players on the field, which could be even different on different sides of the field, or by formation/player grouping.

 

You can make players better by being good, but they'll be even better if they can do what they do best, and with a fixed system qb it is limiting because it's hard to find players that are all good at the same thing.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Elite QBs get 40-50 now.

I've always wanted a player maximum installed in the cap.  The QBs would cry but they are outnumbered union wise.  $25 mil cap wouldn't bother the rest of the players at all.  It means they would see more $$$.

And the teams and the game would be more well rounded, but we would still have moron owners and their hand picked staffs (the Jets for instance) that would still have a tire fire of a team and organization. 
 

I guess it would In reality the league would not change very much after all.

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

 

I could go into all the reasons why I have always loved The Nuch, but in doing so it would be a disservice to the man's greatest traits...he speaks plainly, to the point and is spot on.  

 

Thank you for being here, man.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

 

I mean it kind of just goes by how the game is played.  RBs used to be vital to teams because they focused on running the ball more than passing.  Not the case anymore and you could almost argue that an RB's greatest ability is blitz pickup and pass receiving ability more than running ability now. Unless you have a truly top end back, most are relatively interchangeable in regards to running the ball. But I mean where does having the best RB get you? How many SB's do Elliott, Barkley and Henry have combined?  None.  

 

WRs and QBs are hugely important because they determine how much success you will have in the passing game....same with LT as he protects the QB.  

 

On defense, the players who defend the pass are most valuable...edge rushers and CBs.

 

Used to be run defenders and middle linebackers. The game changes and when it changes positions become more or less important and that dictates their earning potential.

Edited October 29, 2020 by matter2003

[BarleyNY]

Elite QBs are worth the money they get paid.  As noted by others, the problem is overpaying mediocre or below QBs.  Teams have to have the guts to part ways with mediocre QBs and that includes ownership.  You have to chance giving up on a Tannehill once in awhile so you don’t pay a Wentz.  Teams who pay an elite QB also need to have the guts to part ways with other players who are more replaceable (sorry RBs) even if they’re fan favorites.  Find your QB and draft well.  Rarely, or never, spend big bucks in FA.  And for the love of god, never trade big picks for a player that is due or is demanding a new contract unless you’ve negotiated it prior to completing the trade.  (Don’t be a Bill O’Brian.)

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Allen is the only qb taken in the top 10 by the bills since kelly...they never seriously invested in trying to get an elite qb, and the goal always seemed like it was to overpay for Fitzpatrick, which is exactly the point op is making.

 

Agree to disagree a little bit here.  Biscuit was saying that any ole QB outa college can come in and make a splash - at least thats what I took away from his OP.  Yes - Bills FINALLY took a QB in the top 10 but realistically the pickings were slim by the time they were picking in those 20 years as they always were in the 11-19 range and anything worth anything wasn't there and maddeningly when they did have a decent number to play with they went CB, DB and crazily RB and WR.  They hit on two of those but they didn't retain them.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

In a more perfect world, soldiers, sailors, teachers, first responders, etc. would get paid more than football players because they contribute more to America.  But in a capitalistic sports economy, as it exists right now, QBs are paid exactly what they should get paid.  Because QB value is whatever the market will bear.

 

I think things would be different if GMs signed 20 year contracts.  In that scenario, GMs would be more deliberate and patient.  But in actuality a GM is typically given about three years to produce a winner.  So he can't wait long to find a QB in the draft.  And if he has no quick luck there, he's going to spend every penny he has on a FA QB because the clock ticks fast in the Win Now League.  And without a viable QB, a GM is screwed.  

Agreed obviously with your first statement. But disagree on your 2nd point.  How does Kirk Cousins making double what Aaron Donald makes sense??? It’s an insane structure.  Especially in a nfl where it is has never been easier to play qb and ho hum 1st rounder can be on pace to throw for 5,000 yards as a rookie.  
 

the Vikings were one of the most rounded teams in the nfl and nearly went to the SB with Case Keemun. Now, they are in contention for the 1st overall pick.  There are legit 5 without a doubt carry a team qbs right now.  

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

I agree with you that teams overpay QBs, but the problem is...to replace them...you generally need a top ten pick and some luck that you didn't draft a dud. Otherwise, you're taking a player that has a lot of 'maybes'. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by jeremy2020

[C.Biscuit97]

19 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

2 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

I agree with you that teams overpay QBs, but the problem is...to replace them...you generally need a top ten pick and some luck that you didn't draft a dud. Otherwise, you're taking a player that has a lot of 'maybes'. 

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

The perfect example of your theory is Carson Wentz.  He is garbage.  But for whatever reason he was super hyped coming out of N Dakota State.  So the Eagles have mortgaged their future around a brittle ginger who is erratic at best.  And downright lousy most of the time.

 

So much happier having Josh Allen.  He is a unique talent.  May not ever be a Brady Brees or Rodgers.  But he has game.  An amazing arm.  And tremendous competitive desire to do whatever it takes to win every week.

Carson Wentz is definitely not garbage and is actually playing pretty well now after a rough start. What is garbage is his offensive line, which is completely decimated, and his receiving corps, which is also decimated. He literally carries that offense and is worth what they're paying him. They're struggling this year for a variety of reasons, but he's the least of their problems. They are also likely to win that division. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Albany,n.y.]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

Isn't that on Ralph's gravestone?  

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

I have two names for you that sort of obviates your argument: Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson. Don't be surprised if they're the two SB teams (they're my picks). The reason Pittsburgh is always at least pretty good is Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh also drafts well. The reason Seattle is always good is because of Wilson. I'd say the same for Rogers, Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Goff (a lot better than the haters think), Luck when he was playing, DeShaun Watson, and for a long time Philip Rivers. The jury is out on Wentz, but I think he's a very good qb playing for a team completely walloped by injuries right now.  Detroit doesn't win nearly enough, but they'd be a perennial 2-14 team without Stafford, who makes them competitive. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Albany,n.y.]

20 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Agree to disagree a little bit here.  Biscuit was saying that any ole QB outa college can come in and make a splash - at least thats what I took away from his OP.  Yes - Bills FINALLY took a QB in the top 10 but realistically the pickings were slim by the time they were picking in those 20 years as they always were in the 11-19 range and anything worth anything wasn't there and maddeningly when they did have a decent number to play with they went CB, DB and crazily RB and WR.  They hit on two of those but they didn't retain them.

7-9 is the worst record a team can have.  They don't make the playoffs and they pick in the middle of the draft.  Next worse is 6-10.  You may make it into the top 10 in some years, but you're not getting near the top.  

 

In this century the Bills have had four 7-9 seasons including 3 straight from 2006-2008 and six 6-10 seasons including 3 straight from 2011-2013.  That's half the century at 6 or 7 wins.  No man's land in the standings & the draft.  

[John from Riverside]

Just pick one up in Wallmart in the Blue Light special bin.....that has seemed to work so well for us.

 

I realize that the Bills are going through a period of success with McBeane........but it is really easy to me to remember the over a decade of futility we have had prior to that.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

 

Ah yes, the Buffalo Bills approach over the past 20+ years!

 

[dave mcbride]

34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

Dak was also on pace to completely shatter the passing yardage record this season. Injuries are part of life in the NFL, and you can't make decisions based on your fear of them. He is a very good player who is why they were competitive in every game. He can't help that McCarthy hired a checked-out DC who is proving to be flat out awful. His presence -- or lack thereof -- will determine whether they are competitive or not going forward because he's the best player on the team. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

So...dump a guy after his rookie contract if he's only good for a 9-10 win a year QB.....and hope somewhere in the second half of the 1st round, pick up another QB qho is better than that guy (unless he's not either) and just keep cycling through rookie contracts until you strike gold?  

 

Goff's Rams are 5-2.  Tannehill's Titans are 5-1.  I bet those owners aren't thinking they've murdered their teams with those deals.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Being that the entire league is a monopoly, they certainly can price fix at any position if they feel inclined to... buy the owners have money coming out the wahzoo, so there is little to no motivation to do so. 

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I here you, but on the other hand, I have to admit, I love it when players take advantage of billionaires and take tens of millions of dollars from them and milk them for years,  this happens a lot, and it just shows how much money the owners have that it doesn’t seem to even bother them....

 

Huh?

 

There's a salary cap and an 89% cash spend mandate.  The league average of all teams has to be 95% of that year's cap value--so it doesn't matter how many "billions" an owner has--he has to spend the money regardless of which players get what salary.

 

This isn't NBA or MLB where guys get every dollar guaranteed whether they are still playing or not.  Nor is there the option. to spend well over the cap and toss in for a "luxury tax", if they want to.

[Augie]

3 hours ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

 

Just because you are the NEXT QB in line for as contract does NOT MEAN you set the new bar. You have to be the BEST, not just NEXT.  

[machine gun kelly]

28 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Isn't that on Ralph's gravestone?  

No just coaches and GM’s amd don’t disagree with the great one.  I love Mr. Wilson as he brought the team here, kept the team here when he could have moved it multiple times, and in the hey day when we had no cap, but the Kelly years, given the market, he paid for players.  His problem was he was never willing to pay for top coaches until the end, and no one wanted to come here.  Chuck Knox is one of the winningest coaches in the history of the NFL, but like Polian, he was very strong willed and Ralph chose his $ guy Littman over Polian, as well as got rid of Knox who took this team from losing to the Fins 20 times in the 70’s, to winning against them and the division and making the playoffs twice.  He blew it.

 

I will always love mr. Wilson for what he did do, vs. what he didn’t, but he was willing at times to pay for players.  He just was meddling and didn’t understand what the Roonies knew to hire people and stay out of it.  It’s why Pittsburgh had only a few coaches and a bajillion playoff appearances since 1970.