Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs

[unbillievable]

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28 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Elite QBs get 40-50 now.

I've always wanted a player maximum installed in the cap.  The QBs would cry but they are outnumbered union wise.  $25 mil cap wouldn't bother the rest of the players at all.  It means they would see more $$$.

 

That's the NBA model.

The big markets will dominate, leaving smaller cities (like Buffalo) in limbo forever.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

This is quite possibly the worst take ever. 

The #1 priority for every single NFL franchise is to draft a great QB and keep him until he retires.

I just looked at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners and 17 of them had a good veteran Franchise QB at the helm.

 

Bad take.

It was a bit tongue in cheek but what a smart person would do is break down the winners further.  So  what a smart fan would do is discount all the qbs before the salary cap ever.  Even smarter is to then break down the qbs that have won a SB after the salary cap and see what their contract status was. Brady took less. Mahomes, Flacco, Wilson were in rookie deals. Foles was cheap. Rodgers made $10 million/ season when he won.

 

of course there are exceptions. There are 5 guys who can almost single handedly carry a franchise.  But again, Justin Herbert is on pace for 5,000 yards if hep payed in every game his rookie year.  Call me crazy but I’d rather have that than Jimmy G, Tannehill, Stafford, Ryan, Cousins, Goff, Carr at over $25 million.

46 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

From an objective standpoint, I agree with you.  From a Bills fan view point....it took us 22 years to find a decent replacement to Jimbo!!!!!!  Give me a break1  It is not that easy to find a new franchise quarterback.

And that’s a very fair point and that’s why teams do lock these guys up. I’m not really even talking about Allen because as many doubts as I’ve had about him, he possesses elite physical skills.  
 

I worry about the Bills after they pay him big money but I feel much better about him than I would if we had Carr or Cousins. 

45 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

So...to summarize:

 

Don't overpay mediocre quarterbacks (like Tannehill and Goff, except that Tannehill and Goff are playing awesome football and their teams are doing well). Pay elite quarterbacks (like Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes, obviously). 

 

So it's as simple as just having a top-10 pick and hitting on one of the two good QBs each year in the draft, and unless the guy is elite move on after the rookie deal (with that valuable top-10 or top-5 or top-2 pick that every team has when they need a QB).

 

 

I guess it might be a better question to ask with how easy it is to put up stats, how do you know which qbs are truly franchise guys?

[formerlyofCtown]

30 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I here you, but on the other hand, I have to admit, I love it when players take advantage of billionaires and take tens of millions of dollars from them and milk them for years,  this happens a lot, and it just shows how much money the owners have that it doesn’t seem to even bother them....

It's not the owner's money.  The players are basically in a co-op with the owners.  The players get X amount of the proceeds and that is it.  They are basically taking money from the other players.  Because that owner has to spend that amount of money over time regardless.

Edited October 29, 2020 by formerlyofCtown

[C.Biscuit97]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So basically, if he's good enough, you can overpay.  If he's not good enough, don't overpay.  That goes with every position.

But that’s the point.  If you miss on an OG, they aren’t taking up like 50% of your cap.  A lot of people thought Cousins was an average type qb but he had no problem getting a monster deal.  

[unbillievable]

11 minutes ago, costrovs said:

They should re-do the salary cap formula and have it more performance based, not just QB, but every position. If you want that money, you actually have to earn it every year. Make the contracts 90% performance based. No more overpaying or underpaying. Keep it simple, Positional base pay, and everything else is performance based, league wide. Plus bonuses for winning games, making the playoffs, and end of the year record. There's plenty of people in this in this country living on less than 100K a year. I'm damn sure these players can live just fine on a 3M-5M a year base pay contracts.

 

I can see a problem with determining "performance" and who compiles the grades... PFF?

 

 

[prissythecat]

50 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

the Ravens overpaid for Flacco just because he got hot for a playoff / Superbpwl run .  His contract was a big albatross for Ravens 

[formerlyofCtown]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, I realize that.....I’d pay them 40-50.  Most of the non elite, I’d rather not even pay 25.

Fortunately I have a feeling Allen will take a more team friendly contract.  Don't get me wrong he'll get paid but he will leave a larger slice of the pie for other players.  Part of Brady's greatness was that he was never the highest paid QB in the league.  I could be wrong but I don't think he was for a single year.

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

It's fine to say that a lot of QBs are overpaid, I don't think anyone will disagree with you. And yes, in a vacuum, if teams were tighter on their spending to that position, the market would, in theory, go down. What you're not accounting for is the scarcity of talent at the position.

 

MOST even viable QBs are drafted out of the first round, usually in the top 10 picks, or so. So what you're not accounting for is using premium draft capital every couple years to make sure you've got a suitable replacement. And that's assuming you're even able to get high enough in the draft to get a guy you want. Then there's the development and progression -- not every QB pans out, so you're looking at some amount of loss with regard to those premium draft picks. On top of that, you have to account for the chemistry between QB and OL, QB and WR, QB and HC/OC -- QBs are absolutely vital to success in football, it's why they're paid what they're paid. 

 

To me, if your strategy were to be the old LA Clippers of the NFL, focused only on revenue, your solution would probably work okay. But if you're trying to win championships, I just don't see it being a viable strategy long-term. 

[HardyBoy]

32 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

This is quite possibly the worst take ever. 

The #1 priority for every single NFL franchise is to draft a great QB and keep him until he retires.

I just looked at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners and 17 of them had a good veteran Franchise QB at the helm.

 

Bad take.

 

Don't think it's a bad take.

 

Isn't the list of super bowl winning qbs the last 20 years basically Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Wilson and Mahomes? I know there's a random Foles mixed in every now and then, but the vast majority of super bowls the last 20 years have been won by very few QBs, and they're the elite of elite.

 

I think the point is the goal is to get one of those elite qbs (which I am hoping Allen is), if you don't think you did, don't compound the mistake and give out an elite level contract.

 

Edit: I left off Brees. Other than that the only three other winning qbs since 2000 have been Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles.

Edited October 29, 2020 by HardyBoy

[formerlyofCtown]

16 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

Create

 

That's the NBA model.

The big markets will dominate, leaving smaller cities (like Buffalo) in limbo forever.

 

No.  I said installed in the Cap.  In other words, everything else remains the same and the player maximum is added to it.  In other words next year your QB can only make 25 mil and you still can't pay out more than the 175 mil cap.

You can't have 6 players making 25 mil because you would only have 25 mil to spend on the ton of other players you need for a football team.  This is Football where you probably can't play a single game without at least 23 guys probably 24.

[Like A Mofo]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

I think there is a new cycle for the best way to handle a team that hits on a QB in the NFL Draft.

 

Step 1: Before selecting, gut roster and amass draft capital. Draft QB first year and develop. Year 2: Build OL as fast as possible and get some weapons for the QB. Year 3-5: This is where the GM gets aggressive and moves draft picks to win now as QB is hitting stride and takes it to the next step

 

Years 6 and beyond. This is where the $ gets big and this is where the franchise needs to properly select which players to be the core, and gain some draft capital along the way and locate productive players who can be here on the cheap to help compensate for franchise QB and their big contract.

 

[costrovs]

1 minute ago, unbillievable said:

 

I can see a problem with determining "performance" and who compiles the grades... PFF?

 

 

 

The NFL and/or their team, their employer. Would you want someone outside of your company that you work for telling you how much you should make? lol That sounds like a recipe for disaster. Keep it simple.

Team based performance - did you win or lose?

Offensive/Defensive performance - how well did they play?

Positional/individual performance - How well did you do?

 

I'm just thinking of a simpler better solution, I don't have all the answers. But it's fun to theorize.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

In a more perfect world, soldiers, sailors, teachers, first responders, etc. would get paid more than football players because they contribute more to America.  But in a capitalistic sports economy, as it exists right now, QBs are paid exactly what they should get paid.  Because QB value is whatever the market will bear.

 

I think things would be different if GMs signed 20 year contracts.  In that scenario, GMs would be more deliberate and patient.  But in actuality a GM is typically given about three years to produce a winner.  So he can't wait long to find a QB in the draft.  And if he has no quick luck there, he's going to spend every penny he has on a FA QB because the clock ticks fast in the Win Now League.  And without a viable QB, a GM is screwed.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

 

Another good example is Flacco after his Super Bowl.

[Kwai San]

3 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

From an objective standpoint, I agree with you.  From a Bills fan view point....it took us 22 years to find a decent replacement to Jimbo!!!!!!  Give me a break1  It is not that easy to find a new franchise quarterback.

 

Agree with this - these QB's don't grow on trees @C.Biscuit97 as much as I wish they did......The Bills have a 20 year history of bad picks and missed picks they would like to show you as an example.....

[HardyBoy]

3 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Agree with this - these QB's don't grow on trees @C.Biscuit97 as much as I wish they did......The Bills have a 20 year history of bad picks and missed picks they would like to show you as an example.....

 

Allen is the only qb taken in the top 10 by the bills since kelly...they never seriously invested in trying to get an elite qb, and the goal always seemed like it was to overpay for Fitzpatrick, which is exactly the point op is making.

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

The perfect example of your theory is Carson Wentz.  He is garbage.  But for whatever reason he was super hyped coming out of N Dakota State.  So the Eagles have mortgaged their future around a brittle ginger who is erratic at best.  And downright lousy most of the time.

 

So much happier having Josh Allen.  He is a unique talent.  May not ever be a Brady Brees or Rodgers.  But he has game.  An amazing arm.  And tremendous competitive desire to do whatever it takes to win every week.

[Rad Likes The Bills]

20 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

I think there is a new cycle for the best way to handle a team that hits on a QB in the NFL Draft.

 

Step 1: Before selecting, gut roster and amass draft capital. Draft QB first year and develop. Year 2: Build OL as fast as possible and get some weapons for the QB. Year 3-5: This is where the GM gets aggressive and moves draft picks to win now as QB is hitting stride and takes it to the next step

 

Years 6 and beyond. This is where the $ gets big and this is where the franchise needs to properly select which players to be the core, and gain some draft capital along the way and locate productive players who can be here on the cheap to help compensate for franchise QB and their big contract.

 

The Brandon Beane model 

[Aussie Joe]

Joe Burrow is on target to pass for 4600 yards and the Bungles might finish 3-12-1...

 

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Aussie Joe

[RoyBatty is alive]

15 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Allen is the only qb taken in the top 10 by the bills since kelly...they never seriously invested in trying to get an elite qb, and the goal always seemed like it was to overpay for Fitzpatrick, which is exactly the point op is making.

 

I am not saying they were correct but the Bills absolutely tried to get a "real" quarterback in here.  Why they moved up for JP Losman and why they landed Drew Bledsoe.