How confident are you that Josh Allen will be our starter for the next 3 years+

[rayray808]

We are now at the point where a few things have been established:

 

- Playoffs are a lock

- Josh Allen is streaky

- Josh Allen has good games, and some not so good games

- Josh Allen is a duel threat who leads the league in rushing TDʻs but also fumbles

 

In threads there seems to be a divide that puts people all in on either him being the franchise, or him never able to make the jump to being an NFL starter.

 

This thread is intended to be able to quantify exactly how confident you are that he is indeed the future of the franchise without being 0% or 100% about it.

 

GO BILLS 

[MDH]

I said 40%. He is a true boom or bust prospect. If he puts it all together and the game slows down for him and he learns to dissect defenses while continuing to work on his footwork he will be a stud.

 

If it doesn’t all come together I see a frustrating QB who wows us on occasion but drives us crazy with his inconsistencies more often than not. 
 

I do love that he is a willing student and truly seems able to take coaching and improve but I have my doubts that he’ll ever put it all together.

[eanyills]

The answer is 50%. Josh has shown enough that he’ll get the full look of his contract but in three years it will be readily apparent if he’s hit a limited ceiling or not. The team is built to win now so he won’t get past the first contract if he ends up not taking his passing game to another level.

 

Next year will be huge for him, need to see more growth in his ability to read defenses and a little more touch on his passes. 

[RyanC883]

how much longer is Daboll around.  He is awful.  A young QB needs rhythm and to be able to play his style.  Notice how the offense was much better at the end of the 1st and 2nd half?  Not surprising given that we had to pass, JA got into a rhythm, ran, and played HIS style.  

 

JA did also miss Knox twice on somewhat difficult passes, but ones that should be made by a franchise QB.  He also took too many sacks (should have thrown it way).  But I think this is typical 2nd year stuff.  Basically, JA can be great, but Daboll's playcalling is killing him.  

[Tesla03]

very hard to say at this point.

 

Trubisky led his team to 12 wins, division title, and a missed FG away from a playoff win, this year they are burning his jersey in chicago. Bortles had very similar career stats to Allen,  led his team to the AFC championship game and almost won it, now he is a career backup. 

 

Allen is a gunslinger that doesn't put up gunslinger numbers. he has yet to reach 300 yards passing, constantly has poor completion %, struggles to hit deep balls. One thing is for sure though and that is I want to see him under a different OC very soon. Allen doesn't fit Dabolls offense and he refuses to scheme around his QB. Bring in someone like Jay Gruden. he turned Dalton into a top 10 QB. 

[ALLEN1QB]

I said 10% because somebody had to

[Nuncha]

1 minute ago, Tesla03 said:

very hard to say at this point.

 

Trubisky led his team to 12 wins, division title, and a missed FG away from a playoff win, this year they are burning his jersey in chicago. Bortles had very similar career stats to Allen,  led his team to the AFC championship game and almost won it, now he is a career backup. 

 

Allen is a gunslinger that doesn't put up gunslinger numbers. he has yet to reach 300 yards passing, constantly has poor completion %, struggles to hit deep balls. One thing is for sure though and that is I want to see him under a different OC very soon. Allen doesn't fit Dabolls offense and he refuses to scheme around his QB. Bring in someone like Jay Gruden. he turned Dalton into a top 10 QB. 

I don't think there is a QB in the NFL that would fit Cueboll's offense.  

[RyanC883]

9 minutes ago, MDH said:

I said 40%. He is a true boom or bust prospect. If he puts it all together and the game slows down for him and he learns to dissect defenses while continuing to work on his footwork he will be a stud.

 

If it doesn’t all come together I see a frustrating QB who wows us on occasion but drives us crazy with his inconsistencies more often than not. 
 

I do love that he is a willing student and truly seems able to take coaching and improve but I have my doubts that he’ll ever put it all together.

 

I don't think he puts it together if Daboll is here next year.  The crazy playcalling is killing him.   Any player needs to be in a rythym.  Hand off, hand off, 50 yard pass, punt.  then 10 yard pass, hand off, hand off, punt, etc.  no rythym! 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

how much longer is Daboll around.  He is awful.  A young QB needs rhythm and to be able to play his style.  Notice how the offense was much better at the end of the 1st and 2nd half?  Not surprising given that we had to pass, JA got into a rhythm, ran, and played HIS style.  

 

JA did also miss Knox twice on somewhat difficult passes, but ones that should be made by a franchise QB.  He also took too many sacks (should have thrown it way).  But I think this is typical 2nd year stuff.  Basically, JA can be great, but Daboll's playcalling is killing him.  

The miss in the end zone on the final possession was a killer. I just don't know right now. Wildly inaccurate far too often, and I don't know the answer. 

 

He's gonna be around. He's actually not boom or bust because he's gonna do "enough." But I have some real doubts about whether he'll be able to take that next step at this moment.

[rayray808]

historically teams will bet on their rookie QB contract that shows promise over an OC

[CincyBillsFan]

Allen hasn't even finished his 2nd season yet and the positives far outweigh the negatives.  This season he has 29 TD's & only 13 TO's.  His team is 10 - 5 and has already locked up a playoff spot.

 

He was declared to be a major project with a real possibility of being a bust.  That is the FACT of how he was viewed by the vast majority of folks on May 1, 2018.  Anyone claiming different is guilty of rewriting history.  By this standard Allen has exceeded expectations by quite a bit.

 

Short of injury, I'm 100% positive that Allen will be our QB over the next 5 years. 

 

If he isn't we're FRACKED.

 

 

[JDubya76]

100%

[Big Gun]

This is just kind of dumb. He is going to be the starter in Buffalo long past 3 years. It's not even debatable. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by pop gun

[Albany,n.y.]

200 million percent.  The $200 million is his next contract.  

 

[fansince88]

17 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

We are now at the point where a few things have been established:

 

- Playoffs are a lock

- Josh Allen is streaky

- Josh Allen has good games, and some not so good games

- Josh Allen is a duel threat who leads the league in rushing TDʻs but also fumbles

 

In threads there seems to be a divide that puts people all in on either him being the franchise, or him never able to make the jump to being an NFL starter.

 

This thread is intended to be able to quantify exactly how confident you are that he is indeed the future of the franchise without being 0% or 100% about it.

 

GO 

We? You have a mouse in your pocket?

[CincyBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Tesla03 said:

very hard to say at this point.

 

Trubisky led his team to 12 wins, division title, and a missed FG away from a playoff win, this year they are burning his jersey in chicago. Bortles had very similar career stats to Allen,  led his team to the AFC championship game and almost won it, now he is a career backup. 

 

Allen is a gunslinger that doesn't put up gunslinger numbers. he has yet to reach 300 yards passing, constantly has poor completion %, struggles to hit deep balls. One thing is for sure though and that is I want to see him under a different OC very soon. Allen doesn't fit Dabolls offense and he refuses to scheme around his QB. Bring in someone like Jay Gruden. he turned Dalton into a top 10 QB. 

 

The announcers kept calling Winston a "gunslinger" - 31 passing TD's; all sorts of 300 & 400 yard passing games; 28 interceptions and a 7 - 8 record with no playoffs.  We don't want a gunslinger. 

 

As for Turbisky?  Who knows but if the Bears walk away from him I suspect that they will be sorry. 

 

 

[Phil The Thrill]

Like someone else pointed out, this team is going to have a window where they can compete but it might only be 2-3 years.  If the team feels Josh isn’t making enough progress toward the end of his deal, I can see them being in another QB like a Tennessee did with Tannehill.  Then all bets are off.

 

But at some point, Josh is going to need to step up

[Madmax09]

He has it. He’s a baller. Stop worrying about stats. This coach, this Gm, and this qb will win championships. 

[zow2]

I think he will last.  Stuff like the end of the game was concerning though.  4 plays to score and go backwards.  Can’t do that. Need more awareness.  As McDermott said..the final series inside the 10 was not professional. 

[zonabb]

100% because he's like so many other mediocre QBs who were first rounders. Teams draft these guys, they have serious flaws but don't entirely crash and burn. So teams, esp. GMs, don't and won't admit they should draft someone again after a 3rd straight year of stagnation. So they get to the 4th year, opt into the 5th and there you go, Allen for 5 yrs. And I'll bet anyone $10,000 that he'll never have a season over 65% completion.

[DuckyBoys]

He's gotten better They improved the cast around him but its nowhere near championship caliber.   Not sure its going to happen under Daboll

[Real McClappy]

until refs make real calls it doesn't matter

 

[RiotAct]

only reason he wouldn’t is some kind of serious injury.

[Albany,n.y.]

14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

He was declared to be a major project with a real possibility of being a bust.  That is the FACT of how he was viewed by the vast majority of folks on May 1, 2018.  Anyone claiming different is guilty of rewriting history.  By this standard Allen has exceeded expectations by quite a bit.

 

 

 

 

I certainly didn't view him as a real possibility of busting and many other fans were optimistic as well.  Here's my proof from the archives:  

How much longer will we have shady?

in The Stadium Wall Archives

Posted May 17, 2018 · Report reply

---

On 5/17/2018 at 2:22 PM, uticaclub said:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lesean-mccoy-5916/

 

We can release him with $2.6M of deadcap in 2019, with a cap saving of $6.4M. UFA in 2020.

 

Depends where we are with an extension, Shady will probably want a crack at a Super Bowl. We are most likely a few years away from competing for a championship

If Allen plays like a top 10 pick should play, I see no reason the Bills can't be competing for a championship in 2019 or 2020 at the latest. We're going to have a ton of cap space in 2019 & can fill a lot of holes before the 2019 season.  I expect Allen to be playing by November or December at the latest (I'm hoping a lot sooner) this year & show up ready to start from day 1 in 2019. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Albany,n.y.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, zonabb said:

100% because he's like so many other mediocre QBs who were first rounders. Teams draft these guys, they have serious flaws but don't entirely crash and burn. So teams, esp. GMs, don't and won't admit they should draft someone again after a 3rd straight year of stagnation. So they get to the 4th year, opt into the 5th and there you go, Allen for 5 yrs. And I'll bet anyone $10,000 that he'll never have a season over 65% completion.

 

I bet that last year you would have offered "60%" in the same bet.  What will it be next year when Allen is at 63%?  70%?

 

And if Allen can meet certain total TD numbers while minimizing TO's I can live with a 60% completion percentage.

 

 

[wagon127]

He plays as well as the opposing passing defense is built. If its a great defense, he plays mediocre or bad, if its a poor defense he plays great. I actually think he is very consistent, and getting better. I said 80%.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I certainly didn't view him as a real possibility of busting and many other fans were optimistic as well.  Here's my proof from the archives:  

How much longer will we have shady?

in The Stadium Wall Archives

Posted May 17, 2018 · Report reply

---

If Allen plays like a top 10 pick should play, I see no reason the Bills can't be competing for a championship in 2019 or 2020 at the latest. We're going to have a ton of cap space in 2019 & can fill a lot of holes before the 2019 season.  I expect Allen to be playing by November or December at the latest (I'm hoping a lot sooner) this year & show up ready to start from day 1 in 2019. 

 

To be clear I was referring more to the so called national "experts" commenting on the draft.  On 2BD there was a decent # of posters who were optimistic and intrigued by Allen's potential.  But even here there were a sizable # of posters who thought the Bills had made a HUGE mistake taking Allen.

 

And you were right - we are competing for a championship in 2019.

 

 

[DRA3196]

Josh's record as a pro is something like 16-10. 2nd year in the league this kid helps the Bills lock up a playoff birth in week 15 on the road on sunday night during a primetime game. he has led several come from behind wins And he has helped the team go 6-2 on the road this season. All the while playing with a LG,C,RG and a Rookie RT that are new to the team this season. While he has been handing it off too a Rookie RB and throwing it to an entirely new receiving corp and a Rookie TE. I would be shocked IF there weren't some ups and downs, some communication problems.

[Albany,n.y.]

9 minutes ago, zonabb said:

100% because he's like so many other mediocre QBs who were first rounders. Teams draft these guys, they have serious flaws but don't entirely crash and burn. So teams, esp. GMs, don't and won't admit they should draft someone again after a 3rd straight year of stagnation. So they get to the 4th year, opt into the 5th and there you go, Allen for 5 yrs. And I'll bet anyone $10,000 that he'll never have a season over 65% completion.

Who cares if he ever reaches 65%.  Eli Manning is in his 16th season and didn't hit over 65% until year 15 while on the downside of his career.  If Josh wins 2 Super Bowls & gets Super Bowl MVP and never reaches 65% nobody will give a rat's behind on such a meaningless stat as 65% completion %.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I don't understand the point of this thread

 

Josh was a 1st round pick for whom we traded up

Players in whom we have that investment get time and effort to prove themselves.

He gets a partial pass for last season as the plan wasn't to have him start.

 

We are now 10-5 on the season.  Josh has 27 total TDs and 13 total turnovers, 3594 total yards. 

That's not "bust" territory.  He will be our starter for 3 years.  Neither is it "magical franchise man" territory.

 

The question for next year and his 4th year is to ensure we put enough offense around him to enable the FO to make a good decision about whether to pay him or move on.

[dbmu1977]

Did anyone watch the Tampa Texans game, winsted throws a pick six first play of the game. Josh no turnovers and 10-5 record in his 2nd year. Tampa might be bringing him back. Competent QB play is hard to come by

[row_33]

If healthy he is the QB for the Bills

 

not even arguable outside the funny farm

 

 

[DRA3196]

I just read this article and thought I would put it here.

 

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2019/12/why-buffalo-bills-loss-to-patriots-was-still-a-win-for-josh-allen.html

[Motorin']

I think you should do a poll every week for the next five years.

[Nextmanup]

31 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

He plays as well as the opposing passing defense is built. If its a great defense, he plays mediocre or bad, if its a poor defense he plays great. I actually think he is very consistent, and getting better. I said 80%.

That's much too simple an analysis.  

 

He has huge accuracy problems against all opponents.

 

It doesn't matter how good or bad a DB is if he is beaten but Allen can't physically get the ball to the receiver.

 

Allen's main problem is that he can't string entire games or even entire quarters together with strong play.

 

Why? Because he is not good enough to do so.

 

My fear is that he will be perceived as "good enough" to get a long look and it will take a long time to finally move on from him.  During that time, the Bills will not be a serious contender for anything.

 

 

[Scott7975]

100%

[TwistofFate]

Being ranked at the bottom of the league at the Qb position despite the upgrades and consistency around him for the second year in a row, I voted 20%.

 

Consistency as a qb is the difference between a back up/journeyman and a franchise Qb. 

 

Lack of consistency and accuracy will seal his fate.  I really believe if it doesn't drastically improve next year a Qb change can come as soon as midway next season. (by way of benching) 

[Perk71]

100%

[LB48]

54 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The miss in the end zone on the final possession was a killer. I just don't know right now. Wildly inaccurate far too often, and I don't know the answer. 

 

He's gonna be around. He's actually not boom or bust because he's gonna do "enough." But I have some real doubts about whether he'll be able to take that next step at this moment.

I have to reluctantly agree.  Sometimes he just doesn't seem to 'get it'.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

Being ranked at the bottom of the league at the Qb position despite the upgrades and consistency around him for the second year in a row, I voted 20%.

 

Consistency as a qb is the difference between a back up/journeyman and a franchise Qb. 

 

Lack of consistency and accuracy will seal his fate.  I really believe if it doesn't drastically improve next year a Qb change can come as soon as midway next season. (by way of benching) 

I doubt a guy who’s putting up like 27 tds gets benched. His second season has been a huge improvement. That second td thrown today is the  kind of play that I love and can come at any time. His effort is undeniable. His work ethic will take him far. 
 

Some say we are wasting our defense.our d got manhandled today even if we held them to field goals at time.