How confident are you that Josh Allen will be our starter for the next 3 years+

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

50%
    I hope he can learn to hit those over the top passes. I’m not sure he ever will. 
    On the other hand, this Offense in general isn’t very good so I can’t tell. If he had an offense built around him that had lots of quick, straight line passes and a good running game he might be a world beater.

 

... He hit two this game and one last week.

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

Josh clearly has a long way to go in numerous areas of his game. I'll say this much. He has gotten far more forgiveness from Bills fans than any player in franchise history and it's not even close. It seems to make no difference whether he plays well or not. Everyone sings his praises regardless. Honestly, I've seen nothing like it since 1960.

 

You should check out the 2019 Buffalo Bills they are 10-5 and in the playoffs. 

 

Why would fans be happy ? ??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️

 

Put me down for 100% and bring us Bruce Arians 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Teddy KGB

[John Adams]

40 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That's on the OL. giving up a sack to a 3 man rush? Cody Ford is hella bad.

 

The final play looked like it was a screen it was so poorly blocked. 3 different guys were through faster than the ball hit his hands off the snap.

 

Ford was real bad yesterday but has not been bad the last few games. Hopefully Morse and Nsecke are back in 2 weeks. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by John Adams

[Putin]

8 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

The miss in the end zone on the final possession was a killer. I just don't know right now. Wildly inaccurate far too often, and I don't know the answer. 

 

He's gonna be around. He's actually not boom or bust because he's gonna do "enough." But I have some real doubts about whether he'll be able to take that next step at this moment.

This is a brand new offense that’s been put together this offseason  and you add rookie TE and RB to the mix , even OL is still work in progress , and we still need to add a true # 1 stud WR , WE WON 10 GAMES for the first time in 20 years and are going to playoff , 

we got draft , free agency ( 90 million)  to add more much needed pieces to both sides , 

Allen is not a finished product we all know that , but IMO next year will know the answer without the need to ask if Allen is or isn’t !!!

GO BILLS !!!!

[hemma]

He IS an NFL starter.

[Buffalo Boy]

49 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

... He hit two this game and one last week.

   The one to Brown, which caused me to freak out and hug the snot out of my kid, was thrown off platform while about to be killed.

    When he has no pressure( relatively speaking) and misses an open Knox twice in the back of the EZ or  the two he missed against Baltimore early( or bunch he missed all season) that is what I’m talking about.

    He has yet to demonstrate, on even a 50% basis, that he can drop passes over the top to open receivers moving away from him.

    If he hit half of them this year we would be AFC east champs already.

    I SO want him to be the “ one” but he has a ways to go.

    NE beat us yesterday with a fundamentally sound team playing good football. Our O looked anything but fundamentally sound.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Buffalo Boy

[Cripple Creek]

I have to admit that my confidence isn't 100.  His footwork is "sloppy" and he had taken some maddening sacks.  The poor footwork leads to inconsistency delivering the ball and the sacks sacrifice field position.  By far accuracy is number 1 on my concernometer.  I love the kid and everything that he represents, but he has to get better.  I'm not sure that will happen.  The accuracy issues are drive killers and you can't have those inconsistencies against the upper echelon teams.  We have shown that we can play with anyone in the NFL, the next step (accuracy) is critical and the window is 2 years.

[RaoulDuke79]

8 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

I bet your woman (if you have one) has the hots for Allen.  Can be the only explanation for why you come here to trash Allen, but nobody or nothing else about this team.  You literally contribute nothing to this forum other than biased useless drivel!

I think we know the answer to this.

[mannc]

9 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

until refs make real calls it doesn't matter

 

Disgusting.

[papazoid]

90 % on josh

 

beanne & mcdermott are near 100% staying for an extended contract.

 

can't see them moving on from josh.

 

the only scenario i see is through injury, where the next guy up really shines (not currently on team)

[oldmanfan]

I’m confident he’s the starter for the next 13 years.

[CorkScrewHill]

10 hours ago, rayray808 said:

We are now at the point where a few things have been established:

 

- Playoffs are a lock

- Josh Allen is streaky

- Josh Allen has good games, and some not so good games

- Josh Allen is a duel threat who leads the league in rushing TDʻs but also fumbles

 

In threads there seems to be a divide that puts people all in on either him being the franchise, or him never able to make the jump to being an NFL starter.

 

This thread is intended to be able to quantify exactly how confident you are that he is indeed the future of the franchise without being 0% or 100% about it.

 

GO BILLS 

1) 70 - 30 he will be our guy ... when they brought him in he was a boom or bust prospect. He has shown he can learn and improve. As much as people want to gripe that was one of the best performances by a QB against the Pats this year .. if you look at the stats. 
2) He does not lead the league in fumbles .. he has lost 4 all year which puts him tied for 8th with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan and just behind a long list of QBs with 3 each. 

[DefenseWins]

Allen is the Bills QB for many years to come. Is he a "finished product" just yet? Of course not. But he has already shown us that he is at least the 2nd best QB in his draft class. And lets remember that Wyoming is not exactly your ideal QB developmental school either. But he is progressing nicely. As I have said many times before, Kelly had 2 yrs in the USFL and then another 2-3 yrs in a Bills uniform before he became the QB that we all remember him as. I have no concerns about Allen's development. He wants to be the best he can be and he wants to be the Bills QB. He'll be fine. As far as "signature wins" are concerned, Allen has already had a few in my book. He's walked into Dallas and Pittsburgh just in the last few weeks alone and come out victorious. Those are not easy places to win consistently. We need to continue building this team around him.

 

[Hampton Josh fan]

How about creating an offense that puts Josh in a position to be successful.  A few talented receivers over 6 feet and a pass catching running back might be a good start. Then a coach that can teach Josh how to set up a good screen.

[wagon127]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

That's much too simple an analysis.  

 

He has huge accuracy problems against all opponents.

 

It doesn't matter how good or bad a DB is if he is beaten but Allen can't physically get the ball to the receiver.

 

Allen's main problem is that he can't string entire games or even entire quarters together with strong play.

 

Why? Because he is not good enough to do so.

 

My fear is that he will be perceived as "good enough" to get a long look and it will take a long time to finally move on from him.  During that time, the Bills will not be a serious contender for anything.

 

 

Its year two. You've already given up. Cool.

[Mango]

Next 3 years? Or our franchise QB? 

 

3 more years seems about right. Then I think we move on. Our current style of play isn’t really sustainable for winning football games year over year. 

 

I mean, based on the QB market price now of $35M per year, do you take a huge chunk away from the defense and still expect Josh to win 10-12 games per year? 

 

With the 15th ranked defense, this is probably a 6-8 win football team. You don’t give a QB that much money if paying him means you drop under .500.

[Mango]

This thread should be “do you think we should pay Josh Allen 35-40 mil per year?”

 

Or

 

“Can we win 10+ games per year if we allocate 20% of our cap space to a player like Josh Allen?”

 

The answer is probably it’s too soon to tell, but at his current level of play, no

[Luka]

He has had two games now where he has a chance to tie the game against the 1 and 2 seed in the playoffs. Franchise QBs make big plays in those moments so I'm not as confident as I was that he'll stick around. The positive is he was real sloppy and inconsistent last year, worked his ass off in the offseason and came back more polished and has played much better this year. If he can do that this offseason then we will be in good shape.

[JaCrispy]

I’m pretty confident he will be the starter...but that’s not the same as being successful.

21 minutes ago, Mango said:

Next 3 years? Or our franchise QB? 

 

3 more years seems about right. Then I think we move on. Our current style of play isn’t really sustainable for winning football games year over year. 

 

I mean, based on the QB market price now of $35M per year, do you take a huge chunk away from the defense and still expect Josh to win 10-12 games per year? 

 

With the 15th ranked defense, this is probably a 6-8 win football team. You don’t give a QB that much money if paying him means you drop under .500.

This is an excellent point, and one that I think brings real clarity and practicality to the situation...

24 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

Its year two. You've already given up. Cool.

This post contributes absolutely nothing to the one you responded to...congrats...?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I feel like the OP should have made public where everyone is on this question. I shouldn't have to tell you its 100% unless he has a career ending injury-Lets hope not because we have the real deal at QB. And, he is a fine young guy to boot.

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, Tim Tindale said:

I’m surprised it’s a debate, but I guess I shouldn’t be.  We’ve been wandering in the desert for 20 years, finally find an oasis, and some fans complain that the water isn’t Evian.  Then again, in the late-1980’s/early-1990’s, the same percentage of the fanbase wanted Kelly shipped out in favor of Reich (especially after the 1989 Bickering Bills disaster). 

 

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-12-23-sp-9648-story.html
 

Kelly probably would have fared worse than Allen on this poll after that 1989 season, right before four SB appearances.  The quarterback gets criticism when the team doesn’t go 19-0 and laments that said quarterback isn’t Tom Brady or Joe Montana.  Circle of life... ride the wave, enjoy Allen while he’s here (what a gamer), stop lamenting that we don’t have a first ballot Hall of Farmer, and remember what the 2000’s (and 1970s and most of the 1980s) were like.

 

On to the playoffs!  

Was Jim Kelly a bottom third QB when fans when fans wanted Reich? Of course not...it’s apples to oranges and there is legitimate concern here that shouldn’t be marginalized.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

That's much too simple an analysis.  

 

He has huge accuracy problems against all opponents.

 

It doesn't matter how good or bad a DB is if he is beaten but Allen can't physically get the ball to the receiver.

 

Allen's main problem is that he can't string entire games or even entire quarters together with strong play.

 

Why? Because he is not good enough to do so.

 

My fear is that he will be perceived as "good enough" to get a long look and it will take a long time to finally move on from him.  During that time, the Bills will not be a serious contender for anything.

 

Depending upon what you mean by it, Allen *is* good enough to get a long look.

 

There are two mistakes teams can make after they draft a qb

1) moving on too soon

2) moving on too late

 

There are always exceptions, but most of the QB who come into the league show warts and limitations their first seasons. 

The question is what are they, and are they things that are fixable with more time and work.

You pretty much need the guy's first contract to figure it out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wagon127]

17 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

 

This post contributes absolutely nothing to the one you responded to...congrats...?

The post i responded to, was responding to something i said last night. I feel josh allens production is a direct reflection of the opponent he plays against. He actually had a pretty good game last night, for playing against one of the best defenses in the league.

[JaCrispy]

1 minute ago, wagon127 said:

The post i responded to, was responding to something i said last night. I feel josh allens production is a direct reflection of the opponent he plays against. He actually had a pretty good game last night, for playing against one of the best defenses in the league.

Fair enough

[MAJBobby]

10 hours ago, zonabb said:

100% because he's like so many other mediocre QBs who were first rounders. Teams draft these guys, they have serious flaws but don't entirely crash and burn. So teams, esp. GMs, don't and won't admit they should draft someone again after a 3rd straight year of stagnation. So they get to the 4th year, opt into the 5th and there you go, Allen for 5 yrs. And I'll bet anyone $10,000 that he'll never have a season over 65% completion.

And who cares about that if he is leading the team consistently to the Playoffs?

 

and doesn’t matter anyway you would never pay up. 

[BBills88]

The young man wants to be great. He will work hard in the off season to get better in alot of areas. As long as he keeps that work ethic and show improvement every year. He will be great. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Was Jim Kelly a bottom third QB when fans when fans wanted Reich? Of course not...it’s apples to oranges and there is legitimate concern here that shouldn’t be marginalized.

 

So what is that "legitimate concern" in your eyes?

 

[MAJBobby]

I see the Josh haters (so desperate to say see my pre draft thinking was right) are out in force right now. 

10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

I don't see a "huge" improvement. 

 

I see us squeaking out wins against terrible opponents.  I see a defense that carried us to the playoffs.  I see a qb who is completing 58% on the season and is averaging under 50% in our losses.  I see a schedule that will be much harder next year because of our success next year.  

 

If Allen doesn't take a huge step forward next year we could be in serious trouble by late October. 

 

I know it hurts a lot of people's feelings to say this because Allen is a great human being and a very likeable person, but Im not seeing a franchise Qb in the making.  

how many games did the Defense score points to win football games. I thought it was the Allen led offense that did. 
 

Which defensive player is tied for 2nd accounting for the most TDs in a season for the Franchise?  I swear it is Allen that has done that. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Azucho98 said:

I don't think there is a QB in the NFL that would fit Cueboll's offense.  

 

There is, we just played him.  And even he wouldn't look so good.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

12 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Was Jim Kelly a bottom third QB when fans when fans wanted Reich? Of course not...it’s apples to oranges and there is legitimate concern here that shouldn’t be marginalized.

The bottom third is your take, not a fact. Your performance in the GDT tells me you believe Allen to suck.  I'm curious about these legit concerns? 

[skibum]

He has shown a lot of improvement in many aspects of his game, but after two full seasons, he is still missing open receivers a lot, and routinely putting the wrong trajectory on throws over 20 yards.

 

I think he might pull it together, but if he continues to throw the way he throws, it could force a tough decision down the road. They can't count on the D being this good every year. 

[Bangarang]

I’m not convinced yet but we’ll see. He still misses a lot of throws. If he can fix the deep ball and get better with his touch and ball placement then there would be little doubt.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Bangarang

[billsfan1959]

I'll take "Another overreaction to a loss" for $500 please....

 

100%

[MAJBobby]

 And Allen’s problems are easily fixable. 
 

he has the arm talent that maybe 1 or 2 QBs have in this league. The Dime to Brown For the TD  has shown that a lot of throws shown that. 
 

people will counter with he is inaccurate. The good thing is most of inaccurate throws come from improper footwork (this IS fixable). 

thing about footwork is it takes work ethic to fix. Which Allen has also shown he has 

 

 

 

[davefan66]

He’s played less than 2 seasons of NFL football.  The young man has played some heavy hitters the last month and never backed down.  Almost won both patsies games, almost beat the Ravens.  Destroyed the cowboys on national TV.

 

He (mostly) learns from his mistakes and will come back next year even better.  

[NoSaint]

11 hours ago, MDH said:

I said 40%. He is a true boom or bust prospect. If he puts it all together and the game slows down for him and he learns to dissect defenses while continuing to work on his footwork he will be a stud.

 

If it doesn’t all come together I see a frustrating QB who wows us on occasion but drives us crazy with his inconsistencies more often than not. 
 

I do love that he is a willing student and truly seems able to take coaching and improve but I have my doubts that he’ll ever put it all together.

unless he really bottoms out, those guys tend to hang around even if they don’t put it together. Hard to move on from a “he can do it all with just a little more polish” guy early 

[JaCrispy]

18 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

The bottom third is your take, not a fact. Your performance in the GDT tells me you believe Allen to suck.  I'm curious about these legit concerns? 

Clearly you only cherry pick and choose what to remember of my posts...I’ve always been and continue to be equal opportunity when it comes to Allen- neither a homer nor a hater...when he plays poorly I criticize, when he plays great I praise him for it...

 

Allen being bottom third is not me making it up, it’s his QB rating, QBR, and completion %, among other things that say so...

[DuckyBoys]

6 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Clearly you only cherry pick and choose what to remember of my posts...I’ve always been and continue to be equal opportunity when it comes to Allen- neither a homer nor a hater...when he plays poorly I criticize, when he plays great I praise him for it...

 

Allen being bottom third is not me making it up, it’s his QB rating, QBR, and completion %, among other things that say so...

be fair and objective  Allen isnt operating the 2000 Rams offense  Bills still have below average playmakers and O line  He had a ton of pressure in his face thanks to facing endless third and longs Not many qbs are going to look good with Cody Ford blocking on the edge with no help and zero running game.  When he has time he's pretty spot on with exception of the deep shots. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Clearly you only cherry pick and choose what to remember of my posts...I’ve always been and continue to be equal opportunity when it comes to Allen- neither a homer nor a hater...when he plays poorly I criticize, when he plays great I praise him for it...

 

Allen being bottom third is not me making it up, it’s his QB rating, QBR, and completion %, among other things that say so...

Yeah you are equal opportunity all right. You're perfectly objective in your mind. Your a hater and you know it.

 

[JaCrispy]

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So what is that "legitimate concern" in your eyes?

 

Well, stating the obvious, his completion is around last in the NFL...the fact that he requires near perfect mechanics to throw when you have guys like Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Wilson (all guys the bills had chances to draft) that can complete all kinds of passes throwing off platform is very discouraging....he is two years in and still doesn’t have a season of 60% completion.

 

Now, passing for 300 yards isn’t a stat that tells a whole lot...but when you have rookie QBs doing it with ease and Allen can’t come close to sniffing 300 after 25 games, it makes you question why it’s like “pulling teeth” for him.

 

His situational awareness has been suspect...however I was pleased to finally see him score for the first time at the end of regulation last night...

 

He’s completed 3 deep balls the passed two games which is good...but he still had a handful of overthrows last night that should have been completed and likely would have won the game...and they were just overthrows- they weren’t even close...

 

I think these are all legitimate concerns for people...Josh Allen is requiring a lot of patience, and we aren’t sure if he can get any better than he already is...We are seeing young QBs pass him by and it can certainly be frustrating at times.