is Brown REALLY much better then Jones?

[die hard bills fan]

yes.

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, Reader said:

I'm not an expert, but I'll try to give you a helpful response. My guess is that even if their production looks similar, Brown tends to be able to produce against better corners than Zay. My guess is that Zay is more likely to disappear against a teams #1 corner than Brown.

I think this true.  It's because of Brown's speed.  He gets mote of a cushion, which allows him to separate more consistently.  Hard to be a one without speed.  

[Foxx]

until you (we) have a QB who is a proven commodity, evaluations at WR are going to be suspect. Allen needs to progress to a minimum level before we really know what we have here and subsequently, what we need here. 

 

 

[MJS]

It sounds like you didn't look at their stats at all. Brown, for starters, has a 1,000 yard season. Zay Jones has never come close.

[wppete]

Yes he is much better. Without question. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, macaroni said:

 

 

I can see your points but according to  https://www.pro-football-reference.com  last year Brown caught 43.2% of his targets, Jones caught 54.9% of his targets, soooo if you throw each one 100 times Brown equals 100 X 15 X 43.2% which is roughly equal to 648 yards, to Jones equals 100 X 11.7 X 54.9% is roughly 642.33 yards. I'm sorry I just don't see that much of a difference.

 

I think you need to separate Flacco to Brown from Jackson to Brown.  

 

Target not = to catchable ball

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

% of targets caught is different from drops.  Being targeted by Bridgewater doesn't mean you can catch it.  

 

What does Bridgewater have to do with Brown?

[Alphadawg7]

Very simple yes/no questions can answer this:

1. Is there a video thats over 5 min of drops (in 12 games) for Flacco/Lamar last year where Brown shows up at least 8 times?  NO
2. Has Zay ever had a 100 yard game?  NO
3. Has Zay ever reached 1000 yards?  NO
4. Has Zay even ever reached 700 yards?  NO
5. Has Brown ever nude wrestled his brother and tried to jump out of a window?  NO
6. Has Zay ever averaged more than 12 ypc?  NO
7. Has a defensive coordinator stayed up late to game plan on how to stop Zay?  NO

I think the answer is clear.  Case closed.  Brown >>>>>>> Zay and its not close.

Edited August 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Forward Progress]

Preseason stats don’t tell us much of anything. The preseason games are little more televised practices with other teams.  If football was simply a mathematical optimization, all of the coaching and scouting staff would have degrees in actuarial science. 

 

The focus of game two was the quick passing game, which featured Josh and Beasley.  The focus of game three was the run game, which also does not feature Brown. 

 

The reports out of camp were that Josh and Brown were connecting well and that Brown was a better route runner than anticipated.  He can do more than just run fast downfield. 

 

[inkman]

2 hours ago, macaroni said:

 

 

I can see your points but according to  https://www.pro-football-reference.com  last year Brown caught 43.2% of his targets, Jones caught 54.9% of his targets, soooo if you throw each one 100 times Brown equals 100 X 15 X 43.2% which is roughly equal to 648 yards, to Jones equals 100 X 11.7 X 54.9% is roughly 642.33 yards. I'm sorry I just don't see that much of a difference.

Great post. I'll take the guy everyone in the league fears due to his speed vs a guy no one in the league even knows. 

[LSHMEAB]

Is John Brown better than Jordan Matthews? Because Zay is pretty much Jordan Matthews without the injury issues. The answer is yes.

[DJB]

This thread gonna be good and deserve a bump after week 1 id guess

[DrinkinBuddy]

While Brown or Zay may be our #1 WRs this year I don't believe either is a true #1WR. McDer-Beane have set in motion a long term plan to build this team from the ground up. They gutted the roster and their building through the draft. The 2020 draft is stacked with top end WRs, I think our future #1 comes from next year's class.

 

Some would argue you don't need a true #1 and a bunch of solid WRs can get it done in todays NFL. Maybe true. But I think having a true #1 will make the other WRs better because the attention that WR1 will take.

 

I think we've got a bunch of pretty good WRs and that could help lead to a playoff berth this season. I think our true #1 isn't on the roster yet.

[Reed83HOF]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

What does Bridgewater have to do with Brown?

 

Ummmm....I can't say it

 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, macaroni said:

 

 

I can see your points but according to  https://www.pro-football-reference.com  last year Brown caught 43.2% of his targets, Jones caught 54.9% of his targets, soooo if you throw each one 100 times Brown equals 100 X 15 X 43.2% which is roughly equal to 648 yards, to Jones equals 100 X 11.7 X 54.9% is roughly 642.33 yards. I'm sorry I just don't see that much of a difference.

Anybody with Jackson throwing a long ball to them will be lucky to catch 50%. 

[Charles Romes]

Zay Jones just cannot make a play.  It’s frustrating to watch.   He will nearly make a play several times a game but is just not pull it off for some reason, usually a different reason, each time.  

[Rocket94]

5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Is John Brown better than Jordan Matthews? Because Zay is pretty much Jordan Matthews without the injury issues. The answer is yes.

I forgot about Matthews, and look how that worked out...pretty accurate comparison. I don't "hate" Jones at all...there is just something missing. Too inconsistent. I understand occasional mistakes, but there is no continuity or flow going on.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Rocket94

[ColdFront_USAF]

I don't think our coaching staff thinks in terms of #1, #2 ect.  Modern day offenses are all about taking what the defense gives you, which is why teams can succeed without a true number one wr. We're not going to force feed Brown just because he's considered our most talented receiver. If teams scheme to take him away, that will open up other areas of the field that we will take advantage of. If they try to take away the short game/Beasley and the running game, we can look deep to speed guys like Brown and Foster. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Yes.

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, macaroni said:

I'm a typical Kool-Aid drinking Pollyanna Bills fan. When we got Brown & Beasley I figured 2/3rds of our receiving corps problems had been solved. I have gone through the preseason figuring Brown our #1, Beasley our slot, and we only have to figure out who that "complementary" WR is going to be, and the room seemed full of guys none of whom would be a bad choice to fill that bill. Today, for the first time, I took a look at Browns stats and nothing really jumped out at me shouting #1 receiver. I figured I'd look at Zay Jones stats to see how much of an upgrade Brown would be. Much to my surprise (if you take away Zay's rookie year where he played with shoulder problems) they pretty much look like the same guy.

 

I'm not as down on Zay as most of you. While I don't think he's much of a #1 receiver, I think he could play the role as that "complementary guy" just fine, problem is Brown seems to have had HIS problems with missed catches too … have I deluded myself into thinking that Brown is a clear cut #1, I'm NOT talking Jerry Rice, Megatron, OBJ #1, just a sure handed, reliable, you can count on him MOST of the time receiver?

 

I get it that Brown is faster than Zay, but I don't want faster … I want catches the ball better.

 

Talk me off the cliff people … convince me we don't have a Zay, and a fast Zay on our hands here.

Brown is our #1, but he isn't really what you want in a #1 receiver. On a good team, you'd like him to be your 3rd option, with a legitimate #1 do it all superstar, and number 2 possession receiver who can block and brown as your #3 burner type. If you have a great pass catching TE, he can be your #2.

Edited August 29, 2019 by BullBuchanan

[TigerJ]

Brown is an outstanding route runner with speed to burn.  That means he gets open reliably, and once he's open, he tends to stay open unless the DB has help.  Add to that the fact that he has good hands and plays bigger than his listed size, and it's beyond debate that Brown is better.  Jones is a good route runner, but his speed is only OK and he's had a case of the dropsies at various times in his career.  I think he's still developing, and the final product could be pretty good, but he's not there yet.

[Johnnycage46]

19 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

When healthy, Brown has proven to be a legitimate deep threat. They don't call him "Smoke" for nothing. He was on pace for a 1k season with Flacco

 

 

I totally agree with your point, but just for clarity, his nickname of "Smoke" was given to him at birth by his Grampa.  Although he IS fast lol

18 hours ago, loedward22 said:

 

Brown said the nickname was given to him when he was a baby and had nothing to do with him being fast. 

 

Sorry, you beat me to it...didn't see this until now.

[Rocket94]

1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

I totally agree with your point, but just for clarity, his nickname of "Smoke" was given to him at birth by his Grampa.  Although he IS fast lol

 

Sorry, you beat me to it...didn't see this until now.

I know the Smoke story. I just affixed it to the present time. It fits...thats about It.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

18 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Different receivers.  Brown is a homerun hitter that stretches the defense. He only competes with Foster for targets.

Zay is the guy that should catch 80 balls a year with 60+ for first downs with a mix of short, intermediate, and deep routes. He is limited in all three of those phases lacking elite speed, route running, size, and catch percentage. Therefore you need to find his niche. Beasely should be the guy now that get 100 targets this year on short and intermediate routes. That leaves Zay battling it out for a spot in three WR sets. He is s willing blocker but not great run after catch guy. Therefore he can lineup in bunch formations with someone like McKenzie but probably will not be the target.

Can he get 75 targets in a three WR set as the flanker or Z receiver??? Maybe. I could see him as a WR in run heavy formations that they then pass out of. Deep hitch and/or combo routes with a TE after play action. 

That said, Duke Williams can probably do all that out of the Z spot and is bigger, stronger, faster, and catches the ball.

You believe that more than 75% of Zay's catches should be for first downs? There's a ton of "elite" WRs that don't hit that mark, some aren't even close. Antonio Brown - 104/63, Devonte Adams - 111/64, OBJ - 77/51, Tyreek Hill - 87/60, Juju - 111/68, Keenan Allen - 97/62, Amari Cooper - 75/53, Michael Thomas - 125/75, Adam Thielen - 113/74, Tyler Boyd - 76/54, T.Y. Hilton 76/55, Brandin Cooks - 80/56, Julio Jones - 113/80, DeAndre Hopkins - 115/81. That's 14 WRs out of the top 20 in first downs in 2018(And that's removing 3 TEs so it's really only the top 17 WRs) that couldn't achieve 75%(Or as in your response, what should be over 75%) first downs with their receptions. If Zay ended up with 60/60+ first downs he would've placed well within this sample, 60 would've tied for 12th last year.

[Johnnycage46]

49 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

I know the Smoke story. I just affixed it to the present time. It fits...thats about It.

I got it thanks

[ctk232]

20 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I think you're overthinking it.

 

Brown was brought in for the deep zone

Zay intermediate zone

Beasley short zone

 

So, Brown's not replacing Zay, but he does limit/change Zay's role in the offense.

I wouldn't necessarily restrict it to zones on the field, but each was brought in/will be retained for specific roles, which is where I very much agree with you here.

 

Brown and Zay still fill two different roles in the offense at present, however. And from our preliminary looks at our developing offensive strategy and WR roster this year, Brown would seem to take the edge of importance of roles played within our offense over Zay, in terms of what it takes for a defense to scheme for him. Brown may also draw much CB1 and safety attention, opening opportunities for Zay, Foster, Beasley, etc.

 

People (not writing to you directly here goatski) need to stop thinking of WRs in terms of 1, 2, 3, etc. - as though they are defined roles that we need to fit a prescribed player too. As a general question to these folks - what exactly is a "WR1" though? Are they only meant to be one thing and one thing only? Brown might not scream "WR1" for whatever definition people feel it means because he was brought in to fulfill a specific WR role in this offense. As far as our roster choices in the past year are concerned, we seem to be favoring speed and separation over physicality and contested catches in how we are assigning our roles, and certainly within the context of routes, having two-three speed WRs on the field at one time presents mismatches and other opportunities you don't get with your traditional WR1 stereotypes. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Sorry but based on both speed, route running and the ability to consistently catch the ball John Brown wins this contest. 

[Bevis]

Brown can actually catch.

[sunshynman]

20 hours ago, macaroni said:

 

 

and that's a fine opinion, as a matter of fact that was MY opinion before I ran the numbers … I'm just wondering if it's still a valid opinion and why 

 

Browns numbers last year took a dive when Flaco was replaced with a running QB.

[C.Biscuit97]

16 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Anybody with Jackson throwing a long ball to them will be lucky to catch 50%. 

This is where I put out that Jackson has a higher completion % than Allen in both college and the nfl. 

1 minute ago, sunshynman said:

 

Browns numbers last year took a dive when Flaco was replaced with a running QB.

We also have a running qb.  And Brown should always be a compliment type receiver. 

Edited August 29, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[PlayoffsPlease]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

% of targets caught is different from drops.  Being targeted by Bridgewater doesn't mean you can catch it.  

Ok, so who did Jones have targeting him that was famous for accuracy.   The other posters analysis is a legit point of comparison.   In terms of actual production. Brown and Jones are much more similar than people want to believe.  

[Big Gun]

21 hours ago, macaroni said:

I'm a typical Kool-Aid drinking Pollyanna Bills fan. When we got Brown & Beasley I figured 2/3rds of our receiving corps problems had been solved. I have gone through the preseason figuring Brown our #1, Beasley our slot, and we only have to figure out who that "complementary" WR is going to be, and the room seemed full of guys none of whom would be a bad choice to fill that bill. Today, for the first time, I took a look at Browns stats and nothing really jumped out at me shouting #1 receiver. I figured I'd look at Zay Jones stats to see how much of an upgrade Brown would be. Much to my surprise (if you take away Zay's rookie year where he played with shoulder problems) they pretty much look like the same guy.

 

I'm not as down on Zay as most of you. While I don't think he's much of a #1 receiver, I think he could play the role as that "complementary guy" just fine, problem is Brown seems to have had HIS problems with missed catches too … have I deluded myself into thinking that Brown is a clear cut #1, I'm NOT talking Jerry Rice, Megatron, OBJ #1, just a sure handed, reliable, you can count on him MOST of the time receiver?

 

I get it that Brown is faster than Zay, but I don't want faster … I want catches the ball better.

 

Talk me off the cliff people … convince me we don't have a Zay, and a fast Zay on our hands here.

yes

[Big Gun]

21 hours ago, macaroni said:

 

 

I can see your points but according to  https://www.pro-football-reference.com  last year Brown caught 43.2% of his targets, Jones caught 54.9% of his targets, soooo if you throw each one 100 times Brown equals 100 X 15 X 43.2% which is roughly equal to 648 yards, to Jones equals 100 X 11.7 X 54.9% is roughly 642.33 yards. I'm sorry I just don't see that much of a difference.

Maybe you should look a little deeper into last years 2018 stats.

 

John Brown with Flacco as QB

 

9 games 67 targets 34 receptions 591 yards 4 TDs

 

John Brown with Jackson as QB

 

7 games 30 targets 8 receptions 114 yards 1 TD

 

Huge difference in QB play which dramatically affected Browns numbers. He's way better than Zay is.

[macaroni]

26 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Maybe you should look a little deeper into last years 2018 stats.

 

John Brown with Flacco as QB

 

9 games 67 targets 34 receptions 591 yards 4 TDs

 

John Brown with Jackson as QB

 

7 games 30 targets 8 receptions 114 yards 1 TD

 

Huge difference in QB play which dramatically affected Browns numbers. He's way better than Zay is.

 

And looking at last years numbers, do you feel Josh Allen was closer to Flacco, or Jackson.

Edited August 29, 2019 by macaroni

[Nervous Guy]

1 hour ago, macaroni said:

 

And looking at last years numbers, do you feel Josh Allen was closer to Flacco, or Jackson.

OMG.....PLEASE LET THE SEASON START ALREADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, macaroni said:

 

And looking at last years numbers, do you feel Josh Allen was closer to Flacco, or Jackson.

 

Flacco …..  http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=true&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=0&qualified=false&Submit=Go

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

3 hours ago, sunshynman said:

 

Browns numbers last year took a dive when Flaco was replaced with a running QB.

You mean like Zay having to play with Peterman, Anderson, Barkley & the teams leading rusher Josh Allen? Yup I would've rather had Brown's situation than Zay's.

Also I just posted this in another thread... 

 

What has he done in the last 3 years that's is head and shoulders above Zay? Last year 42/715/5 vs 56/652/7, 2017 - 21/299/3 vs 27/316/2. In 2016 obviously Zay wasn't in the league, John Brown  - 39/517/2, Zay's averaged pretty much those exact numbers except with more TDs over his 2 years career. So as I said he really hasn't done much more, if any, than Zay over the last 3 years. In fact he's been very much Zay like.

[DCofNC]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is where I put out that Jackson has a higher completion % than Allen in both college and the nfl. 

We also have a running qb.  And Brown should always be a compliment type receiver. 

This is where I put out the percentage of throws made by Allen exceeding 15 yards in the air and the utter lack of them for Jackson.

[Rocket94]

10 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Sorry but based on both speed, route running and the ability to consistently catch the ball John Brown wins this contest. 

The Bills have been pleasantly surprised to find out that Brown is a better route runner than they thought, and he plays much bigger than his size. It is amazing what different coaching staffs see in a player. 

[Kelly the Dog]

Only if you count hands, routes, speed, awareness, YAC, knowing where first down and sidelines are, tracking the ball, release, fight, demanding safeties, and hand strength.

[Dkollidas]

I think Brown is that much better. I think if healthy he has the ability to be a Watkins level player.

Just look at Brown vs. Watkins past three seasons:

 

John Brown last 3yrs:

102rec 1531yds 15.00ypc 10TD’s 

 

Sammy Watkins last 3yrs:

107rec 1542 14.4ypc 13TD’s

 

They’re both very similar players except to me Brown creates his own space with speed, while Watkins needs to be put into space and can create opportunities in that space. I’ll take Brown over Watkins as well. Also, both only have one 1,000yd season.