Bills reportedly unlikely to trade McCoy and plan to keep him through 2019

[aristocrat]

i think if we win this weekend and next weekend we keep shady but if we lose either he's gone.  

[DuckyBoys]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

whoa I wasnt even aware of that  Money aside I always got excited to watch with Watkins in the lineup.  He just doesn't come close to the production I though he would have

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm just curious about this philosophy - you are of course by far the only person expressing it, I'm just jumping in here.

 

A 4th round pick is where you draft a player who has something like a 20-25% chance of making it in the NFL.  Not of being a star, just being a capable NFL player - sometimes at the cost of being carried on the roster for a couple years before he emerges.

 

So this philosophy is saying, "let's swap a legit star in his downward years who is one of our roster's best players THIS season, for a 25% chance of getting a capable NFL player NEXT season"

 

Why does this make sense or seem like a good deal to you?

 

To me, to trade McCoy would only make sense if it's part of a bigger this-year plan.  Let's say we can trade for, say, a very good vet WR - but we need to clear cap.  So we trade McCoy for decent picks - say the best Philly 2nd - and trade the best Philly 2nd for a WR with at least an option year on his contract after this season after clearing the cap to receive him.  That kind of thing would hopefully keep or improve the team's competitiveness this year and position us well for next year (we're in a hole where FA WR aren't gonna want to sign here until we're racking up more passing yards, but we can't rack up more passing yards without better WR). 

 

That might make sense for all 3 teams - for Philly, by giving them the RB they need Right Now to contend; for a team that might have good young WR coming up, by giving them a good draft pick; for us, by upgrading a position that is woefully lacking at the cost of downgrading a position of strength.

 

But McCoy for a 4th?  I don't get it.

 

To me, I think it makes sense to cut McCoy in the offseason, so getting a 3rd round pick for him now would be very nice. A 4th round pick is just enough that I think it's worth moving on from him a little early. An extra 3rd or 4th round pick could potentially be a McCoy replacement, could be a bonus chip to move up for a prospect that the team especially likes, etc.

 

3rd and 4th round RBs between the past 3 drafts:

 

Kenyan Drake

CJ Prosise

Tyler Ervin

Kenneth Dixon

Devontae Booker

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

D'Onta Freeman

James Conner

Samaje Perine

Tarik Cohen

Joe Williams

Donnell Pumphrey

Jamaal Williams

Wayne Gallman

Marlon Mack

Royce Freeman

Nyheim Hines

Mark Walton

Ito Smith

Kalen Ballage

Chase Edmunds

 

Obviously it's still early, and in some cases, extremely early, but of the 22 guys listed here, 12 of them already have a fairly sized role on their NFL team. Of those 12, 10 of them are either starters, or play roughly starter's snaps and grade out very well. So we're talking almost a 50% chance that a RB you take there can be a potential McCoy replacement and they'd be paid roughly 9% of what we're paying McCoy.

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by DCOrange

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, Yav said:

I know he had more carries last week but the first few weeks seemed like he wasn't used at all. 

Don't get me wrong, I think McCoy is great and I'd rather have him running the ball than not, but I just get the impression they want a more physical runner.

 

The first few weeks our run blocking was caca.  Say instead "they needed a more physical runner who could make yards out of nothing on his own" and you've got it.

 

This past week, they simplified the blocking and it worked better for Shady.  Not hugely better, but better to the tune of 3-5 ypc vs -3 to -1 ypc

 

31 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

 

Ah-ha.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is the kind of move that makes no sense at all to me. A borderline starting OL and another 6th is not worth it. I don’t know if I’d do Wisnewski and a 3rd. While Shady may not be here after this year he still is an important piece to Allen’s development. The Bills already have 10 picks and a boatload of cap space. A swing interior OL and a 6th does nothing for me. 

Why would Shady not be here next year?!? His running style protects him from big shots most rb take. He'll still be a valuable piece to the O and Allen and worth every penny of his contract.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

C. Biscuit, this is a terrible trade for the Bills. He is still really good and stands a decent chance of going to the HOF. His contract is fine. Why wouldn't he be back next year?

Name the last 3 Bills fourth rounders who turned out to be better than average players (i.e., not JAGs). Andre Reed is the only player who comes to mind. Jamie Nails is the proverbial mean in the fourth round slot for the Bills.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

What a stupid trade idea. 

I swear, journalists and posters love draft picks way too much. Mid-round picks are so freaking overrated.

I agree McCoy is a stud.  But he is 30+, has a high price tag, and guilty or not, seems to have a lot of baggage with him.  I don’t think teams value him as high as we might as Bills fans.  I also feel that since the one position the Bills seem to do well as finding is rbs, we should get an asset for him while we can.

 

i know the Bills are stuck in the 50s with their way of thinking.  But a 4th could be used for a receiver or linemen.  That said, I hope they aim high but I think their leverage is limited.  And it’s not a knock on McCoy who is one of the best rbs in his generation. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

To me, I think it makes sense to cut McCoy in the offseason, so getting a 3rd round pick for him now would be very nice. A 4th round pick is just enough that I think it's worth moving on from him a little early. An extra 3rd or 4th round pick could potentially be a McCoy replacement, could be a bonus chip to move up for a prospect that the team especially likes, etc.

 

3rd and 4th round RBs between the past 3 drafts:

 

Kenyan Drake

CJ Prosise

Tyler Ervin

Kenneth Dixon

Devontae Booker

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

D'Onta Freeman

James Conner

Samaje Perine

Tarik Cohen

Joe Williams

Donnell Pumphrey

Jamaal Williams

Wayne Gallman

Marlon Mack

Royce Freeman

Nyheim Hines

Mark Walton

Ito Smith

Kalen Ballage

Chase Edmunds

 

Obviously it's still early, and in some cases, extremely early, but of the 22 guys listed here, 12 of them already have a fairly sized role on their NFL team. Of those 12, 10 of them are either starters, or play roughly starter's snaps and grade out very well. So we're talking almost a 50% chance that a RB you take there can be a potential McCoy replacement and they'd be paid roughly 9% of what we're paying McCoy.

 

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

49 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

When did this happen?  Was it after he cut his hair?

[Reed83HOF]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree McCoy is a stud.  But he is 30+, has a high price tag, and guilty or not, seems to have a lot of baggage with him.  I don’t think teams value him as high as we might as Bills fans.  I also feel that since the one position the Bills seem to do well as finding is rbs, we should get an asset for him while we can.

 

i know the Bills are stuck in the 50s with their way of thinking.  But a 4th could be used for a receiver or linemen.  That said, I hope they aim high but I think their leverage is limited.  And it’s not a knock on McCoy who is one of the best rbs in his generation. 

 

The pick could also be part of a package to jump back up into the first/second or even packaged to move up in the first. Just because he is traded for a 2,3,4,5 does not mean that pick will simply stay there - see Allen & Edmunds this past draft.

 

[Irv]

On ‎10‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 12:59 PM, prissythecat said:

 

 

What would Foles do for the Bills?  

 

He would be what McCarron wasn't. 

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

Not Royce Freeman or James Connor?

 

And you might want to proofread your list of names, or is that just Kareem Hunt’s nickname??

Edited October 11, 2018 by mannc

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

 

Drake

Dixon

Kamara

Hunt

Conner

Cohen

Jamaal

Mack

Freeman

Hines

 

As I said, all 10 have either been starters already or are more like Cohen where they’re playing a lot of snaps and playing well but aren’t technically the starter.

 

Are all of these guys as good as Prime McCoy? No. Are they as good as Current McCoy and Next Year McCoy? Not all of them, but for the money, I’d rather have a committee including guys like this than to spend $9 million on McCoy, who’s arguably a below average starter right now and in the very least, could realistically be below average next season. 

[dave mcbride]

53 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

But if the debate is about money, factor in that for the games he's suspended, the team doesn't have to pay him and the forfeited salary doesn't count against the cap.

[DuckyBoys]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Drake

Dixon

Kamara

Hunt

Conner

Cohen

Jamaal

Mack

Freeman

Hines

 

As I said, all 10 have either been starters already or are more like Cohen where they’re playing a lot of snaps and playing well but aren’t technically the starter.

 

Are all of these guys as good as Prime McCoy? No. Are they as good as Current McCoy and Next Year McCoy? Not all of them, but for the money, I’d rather have a committee including guys like this than to spend $9 million on McCoy, who’s arguably a below average starter right now and in the very least, could realistically be below average next season. 

McCoy is till a top back  There arent that many 3 down rbs to begin with.  His salary is not 9 mill its 4mill 2018 and 6mill in 2019

[LSHMEAB]

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

Not Royce Freeman or James Connor?

 

And you might want to proofread your list of names, or is that just Kareem Hunt’s nickname??

That's like the worst nickname in the history of nicknames.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

C. Biscuit, this is a terrible trade for the Bills. He is still really good and stands a decent chance of going to the HOF. His contract is fine. Why wouldn't he be back next year?

Name the last 3 Bills fourth rounders who turned out to be better than average players (i.e., not JAGs). Andre Reed is the only player who comes to mind. Jamie Nails is the proverbial mean in the fourth round slot for the Bills.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

What a stupid trade idea. 

I swear, journalists and posters love draft picks way too much. Mid-round picks are so freaking overrated.

 

We've had good luck with DB's in the 4th. Cockrell, Johnson is looking good (too early to tell though), McGee, Searcy. 

 

Lets not forget Ko "I am worth Millions" Simpson

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

McCoy is till a top back  There arent that many 3 down rbs to begin with.  His salary is not 9 mill its 4mill 2018 and 6mill in 2019

 

It’s a cap hit of just over $9 mil both this year and next according to Spotrac. 

[YoloinOhio]

19 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

When did this happen?  Was it after he cut his hair?

Lol - he cut his hair? Nooooo 

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

But if the debate is about money, factor in that for the games he's suspended, the team doesn't have to pay him and the forfeited salary doesn't count against the cap.

I’m not really debating anything. The chiefs don’t care clearly. Maybe he never gets popped again. 

[BillsSbSoon]

Knowing philly has two second rounders, i would hold firm trying to get one of them. We actually have the leverage here for once. If anyone wants to see this happen, and im not sure i do, root hard for the giants tonight

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

We've had good luck with DB's in the 4th. Cockrell, Johnson is looking good (too early to tell though), McGee, Searcy. 

 

Lets not forget Ko "I am worth Millions" Simpson

They're all OK players, but at the end of the day they're JAGs - guys with one or two decent seasons under their belt at most. Even McGee only had a couple of above average seasons. Searcy is the proverbial JAG - check out his AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SearDa00.htm

1 minute ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Knowing philly has two second rounders, i would hold firm trying to get one of them. We actually have the leverage here for once. If anyone wants to see this happen, and im not sure i do, root hard for the giants tonight

If the Giants win, I think it's more likely that Philly DOESN'T pull the trigger than if they win. 2-4 is a hard hole to crawl out of.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Demarco Murray, Orleans Darkwa or Terrence West IMO

Murray's stats from his last season in Dallas, vs his first in Philly prove that he's useless without a good OL.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Is this just talk now ?

 

 

[John from Riverside]

What I hope the bills dont do is settle for later then a 2nd round pick

 

Anything less then a second and I would just keep him.....

[BillsFan130]

11 minutes ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

Murray's stats from his last season in Dallas, vs his first in Philly prove that he's useless without a good OL.

Or that Chip Kelly was just a complete idiot and didn’t know how to use his players right lol.

 

Murray did very well in Tennessee after leaving Philly

[YoloinOhio]

13 minutes ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

Murray's stats from his last season in Dallas, vs his first in Philly prove that he's useless without a good OL.

I thought he retired anyway 

[1billsfan]

The Bills are 2-3

Pats, Dolphins and Jets have looked poor so far

Other than the Chiefs, the entire AFC conference is blah

 

The Bills would be insane to deal their best offensive weapon (unless it was a 1st rounder of course). This team can win their next three games which includes the Patriots/Bills game.

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Demarco Murray  - really the only name I recognize 

 

Orleans Darkwa - Jax worked him out and then signed Jamaal Charles instead 

 

Terrence West - Formerly Browns, Ravens, Titans and New Orleans Saints.  that list says enough no? 

 

Are they really a 1 for 1 replacement for Shady?   If they were why isn't Philly pursuing them? 

They aren’t going to replace his production but will be a fraction of the cost and you’d get a pick. That’s the reasoning. The Bills aren’t doing this because there are guys as good as Shady on the street. They are doing it for the asset(s) and cap space.

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Why would Shady not be here next year?!? His running style protects him from big shots most rb take. He'll still be a valuable piece to the O and Allen and worth every penny of his contract.

I would keep him. I’m just not sure that they will. Shady won’t be on this team when the Bills are contenders. They may decide on cap space and an asset (or assets). 

[blacklabel]

On 10/9/2018 at 1:15 PM, teef said:

I’m with ya here. Completely depends on the pick. 3rd or more...you almost have to. What’s up with Murphy?  Is he hurt or a healthy scratch?

 

I know Murphy has been dealing with a rib/chest injury... but before that I think he was a healthy scratch in a game or two because he's struggled with blitz pickup and pass protection, and he dropped more than a few passes, so.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

Drake

Dixon

Kamara

Hunt

Conner

Cohen

Jamaal

Mack

Freeman

Hines 

 

As I said, all 10 have either been starters already or are more like Cohen where they’re playing a lot of snaps and playing well but aren’t technically the starter.

 

Are all of these guys as good as Prime McCoy? No. Are they as good as Current McCoy and Next Year McCoy? Not all of them, but for the money, I’d rather have a committee including guys like this than to spend $9 million on McCoy, who’s arguably a below average starter right now and in the very least, could realistically be below average next season. 

 

Well, I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. 

 

From your 50% odds of getting a good player, as I see it maybe half those guys look like legit NFL starting RBs and for some it's too soon to tell.  I think the odds are more like 20-25%, and I think it's foolish to trade away one of the best players on the team in the middle of the season, for a lottery ticket with 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 odds. 

 

But neither of us has any control on what Beane's gonna do so...

[JM57]

55 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

What I hope the bills dont do is settle for later then a 2nd round pick

 

Anything less then a second and I would just keep him.....

ANY asset for a 30 year old RB is found treasure.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

I know Murphy has been dealing with a rib/chest injury... but before that I think he was a healthy scratch in a game or two because he's struggled with blitz pickup and pass protection, and he dropped more than a few passes, so.

 

Murphy played in the first 3 games.  He was questionable with a rib vs GB and is questionable with a rib this week, so while not listed on the injury report vs Texas I think it's likely he was not quite 100%, maybe suffered a setback in practice or something.  Or maybe, healthy enough to run but not healthy enough to block the way the backs were asked to vs Tenn.

 

He caught his one target vs Minn.   I don't know what to make of any receiving stats for the Ravens or LAC games - I'd have to see how many targets were actually catchable.

 

6 minutes ago, JM57 said:

ANY asset for a 30 year old RB is found treasure.

 

You'd be a great drinking buddy for Beane.  The goal of the NFL is to win football games, not to lose while stocking the most mediocre draft picks.

 

I'm not sure Beane knows this.

[blacklabel]

This is a tough one. I understand that they're in a full rebuild but right now, McCoy is their only offensive weapon. He's the only player that defenses have to concern themselves with. 

 

On top of that, (I think) this is the first season he's ever earned the C on his jersey, so clearly his teammates look up to him and have a great deal of respect for him. Shady also seems to be one Allen's biggest fans. It was fun watching Shady get psyched up over the plays Allen made in the Minnesota game. 

 

You take away Shady and you're taking away more than just his production on the field. You're taking away a leader in the locker room and a guy that appears to have developed a pretty good relationship with Allen. He earned the C from his teammates so obviously the way he prepares, practices and plays has a big impact on his teammates. Especially the young guys. Shady is a great player and I'm sure there are plenty of young players looking at him to see how he does things so they can play as long as he has and find success like he has.

 

Plus, as many others have mentioned, you trade Shady and you make Josh Allen's job much more difficult than it already is, and he doesn't need that. They need to come out of this season with Allen having developed more positive traits than negative ones. Remove Shady and Allen's gonna be running for his life even more and some of those things may become habit, which is exactly what you don't want with a young QB.

 

I have thought for quite a while that 2018 is Shady's final season in Buffalo. Just because of the rebuild and the fact that he'll be 31 by the time the 2019 season starts, plus they'll save a little bit of money. I realize that if they trade him after the season, they probably wouldn't get as much as they may be able to get now, but I think right now, I would hang onto him. I'd even hang onto him past the trade deadline.

 

Shady definitely appears to be a big part of the culture right now and seeing how important culture is to this coaching staff, I think they'd really throw the rest of the team for a loop if they traded a guy who exemplifies what McBeane are looking for in their players.

 

Hang onto him, just for the sake of helping Allen and keeping whatever culture they've built from deteriorating. 

 

But if they call and say, "Alshon Jefferey and a 1st" I will happily pack Shady's bags, haha.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

They're all OK players, but at the end of the day they're JAGs - guys with one or two decent seasons under their belt at most. Even McGee only had a couple of above average seasons. Searcy is the proverbial JAG - check out his AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SearDa00.htm

If the Giants win, I think it's more likely that Philly DOESN'T pull the trigger than if they win. 2-4 is a hard hole to crawl out of.

 

I am giving you a hard time here man. 

 

I actually agree with you. Not a great move/value. 

[blacklabel]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Murphy played in the first 3 games.  He was questionable with a rib vs GB and is questionable with a rib this week, so while not listed on the injury report vs Texas I think it's likely he was not quite 100%, maybe suffered a setback in practice or something.  Or maybe, healthy enough to run but not healthy enough to block the way the backs were asked to vs Tenn.

 

He caught his one target vs Minn.   I don't know what to make of any receiving stats for the Ravens or LAC games - I'd have to see how many targets were actually catchable.

 

I think Murphy can be an asset in the screen game and can carry the ball a few times a game. But I would definitely keep him off the field in situations where he'd have to block because he gets ran over rather easily.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

 

 

 

And you might want to proofread your list of names, or is that just Kareem Hunt’s nickname??

 

I heard it's "Mike"...

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Chuck Wagon]

21 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

Two different RB desperate teams nearly emptied their FAAB budgets for Smallwood / Clement this week.  I'm waiting for Shady or Leveon to be an Eagle by Sunday...

[zow2]

I think Shady gets moved.  And not sure how the team will react to that? Hard to think anyone would take it as a positive move. Other than Allen who is unproven, the Bills would literally have anonymous offensive personnel. Its almost unheard of for an NFL team.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I would keep him. I’m just not sure that they will. Shady won’t be on this team when the Bills are contenders. They may decide on cap space and an asset (or assets). 

 

 

I am for keeping Shady too.

 

The unnecessary extension they gave him was part of a series of sloppy new owner honeymoon mistakes(like not putting standard conduct clauses in Dareus' contract)............but how do you root for them to trade him now?    

 

They have no other playmakers on offense and they have tons of self-inflicted cap room in 2019 and there will be nobody to wisely spend it all on.

 

I don't care that he's diminished(be it ability or durability) the young QB needs all the talent he can get around him. 

 

That's worth A LOT,  IMO.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I think Shady gets moved.  And not sure how the team will react to that? Hard to think anyone would take it as a positive move. Other than Allen who is unproven, the Bills would literally have anonymous offensive personnel. Its almost unheard of for an NFL team.

How the team and mccoy handled the press conferences yesterday seemed as if a trade was looming.

 

It also sounded like we are gonna deliver this trade news at 4pm on a friday