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People should be worried about our Depth


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7 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

Would it help our depth situation at all?

Probably not ..

7 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

I can't believe no one is talking about our width.  Football is a two dimensional game.  Expand your minds!

Breadth is severely underserved as well

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12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

One thing that I consistently notice each off season is the fan predictions always leave out a very glaring issue - players get injured. 

By now, we should all know how quickly 1 key injury can derail the outcome of games, let alone several piling up over the course of the year. Sometimes a roster looks great on paper, but dig a little deeper and see who's sitting behind who, and how that will impact the team in the very likely case a player goes down.

Last year we had injuries to Jordan Matthews, Charles Clay, Tyrod Taylor, Zay Jones, Cordy Glenn, Shaq Lawson, Kelvin Benjamin, Nate Peterman,  Tre White, John Miller, Brandon Tate, Nick O'Leary, and many more. 

Years prior, we had key people hurt for extended periods of games (which include many who I already named) like Marcell Dareus, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin, Ronald Darby, Stephon Gilmore, Eric Wood, Cyrus Kouandjio, Percy Harvin (ha), Aaron Williams, Nigel Bradham, Manny Lawson, etc.

Every team has injuries, but many teams are setup far better than the Bills when it comes to replacing those guys & the production they bring.

Anyone who says they have "confidence" in our WR corp as it stands is either lying, or just crazy. Same goes for the O-line... Neither unit was good last year, but at least the line had some positive attributes. In 2018, we lost all 3 of our best players in Glenn, Incognito and Wood. We're left with (potential backups in parenthesis) -

LT - Dion Dawkins (Conor McDermott)
LG - Ryan Groy (Wyatt Teller) 

C - Russell Bodine  or Adam Redmond

RG - John Miller (Vlad Duccasse)

RT - Jordan Mills (Marshall Newhouse)

 

It's already unstable as it is, but with the depth we have, we're are so paper thin that a single injury would essentially be a death sentence to whoever is QB. And our run game? We significantly regressed in 2017, and likely will be inferior to that in 2018.

The WR group we have is again, even worse than last season. We've got -

WR1 - Kelvin Benjamin
WR2 - Jeremy Kerley?  I mean, he's got the highest average yards per season at 388.......... None of the guys on our roster have been #2 guys in the league

WR3 - Andre Holmes or Zay Jones? They've got the next highest average after Rod Streater, with 316 yards per season played, so....yay?

Other potential stars:

 

-Quan Bray, 3 years in the league with a total of 75 yards

-Kaelin Clay, an even better prospect, as he has 85 total yards in 2 seasons.

-Malachi Dupre, 1 year in the league, crowning achievement was being promoted to the active roster for week 17's game against the Dolphins. Didn't play a down.
-Robert Foster, rookie, 4 seasons at Alabama averaging 97 yards a year.

-Brandon Reilly, 1 year on the Bills practice squad, promoted to active roster for final 4 games, didn't play a down.

-Rod Streater, had 2 decent years in 2012 & 2013, has done less than nothing since. 
 

Then we've got the other rookies, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, and Austin Proehl...Obviously most of these guys won't even make the roster, but the ones that do offer limited skillsets, no experience, or a combination of both. If Benjamin goes down, we are beyond screwed. And it should be noted that Benjamin has never started all 16 games in his career...so that's almost a certainty.

And beyond the obvious, here's some other thin positions:

 

QB - AJ McCarron, Josh Allen & Nathan Peterman: don't need to get too deep here, this one's obvious. A combined 6 starts between them, 4 coming from McCarron. Peterman had the record INT game and the snow game for the other 2. Allen was always touted as the "potential" guy who's stock was based solely on looks, arm strength and physicality, and not on-field play. By everyone's account, the most raw QB in the 1st round whose promise is based on if he can be developed properly. Needless to say playing with this line & this WR corps would do him no favors, so expectation is for him to sit, learn & start in the future. 


RB - LeSean McCoy: although he's generally reliable for most of the season, he's only started all 16 games 3 times in 9 years, including 1 season with the Bills (last year). He's easily our best player, but production has declined and will be 30 heading into the 2018 season. Behind him we have the also 30 Chris Ivory, who's better than Tolbert, but that's not saying much. Also has a history with injuries.

CB - Tre White & Vontae Davis: even if just one goes down, that leaves us with next to no options. We have Breon Borders, Ryan Carter, Phillip Gaines, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Lafayette Pitts...a bunch of late round/undrafted rookies & practice squad fodder. Davis is also 30 & coming off an injury, so it'd be a miracle if our starting duo plays most of the season.

 

And yes, there are other soft spots as well, but those spots are either covered better up front, or have more experience backing them. Every team has "needs" or positions they're weak in, but for a team many on this board are confident can make the playoffs, I can't see another playoff contending roster with nearly as many holes.

People need to temper their expectations and remember to factor in injuries and depth. It's always a battle of attrition, but there are certainly teams that have positioned themselves worse than others in that regard. I'm hopeful Allen will become what the Bills want him to become, but when factoring in injuries & our limited depth, this year will likely only do him a disservice if he's the starter.



 

Depth? You’re worried about depth? Depth? Hell, I’m worried about the starters and you want to talk about depth? Depth?

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22 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I try not to worry about things I have no control over.

 

only worry about things I have no control over. The rest I know I'll get sorted out.

And yes, I do judge a book by its cover. There is no point to judging a book after I buy it and read it. That time and money is gone forever.

Of course I count my chickens before they are hatched. Then I count them again after they are hatched. Is inventory tracking so wrong?

I would totally buy the cow even if I can get its milk for free because, when I get tired of milk: steaks!

I confess, I do watch the pot until it boils. Watching pots does not effect boiling time and chef's like me need to know when its time to add the cheese powder.

I will not pay a penny for your thoughts...ever. But I am open to negotiations on what it will cost me for you not to share your thoughts.

I have never barked at any tree let alone the wrong tree. If you have, tree selection is not your only problem.

I do try never to cross a bridge until I come to it because, crossing it before you get to it is not possible under the current laws of physics.

I don't put my eggs in any basket because: egg cartons, duh. 

It does not take two to tango. I tango by myself all the time and, don't deny it, you do too.

It is my policy to always let the cat out of the bag because keeping cats in bags is just wrong.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mickey
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Yeah depth issues kind of happen when 

 

1.  Poor Drafting over the years 

2.  Trade-up in drafts occur

3.  You are in Cap Hell due to a couple reasons, ie bad contracts and you cleaning up those bad contracts 

4. You move on from alot of the past regimes draft picks. 

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I think we should talk to the Jets about Bridgewater as I don’t buy that Peterman will work out and he would be an upgrade for depth, but I seriously doubt the Jets would shop him to a division rival.

 

He could if they did go for it would be an upgrade and compete with McCarren for the starting role.  If he gets hurt again we can always move Peterman back up from the practice squad.  He still new enough would qualify for the practice squad.

 

lets face it Allen needs to sit for a year.

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16 hours ago, Robert James said:

Given the amount of concern people express about the likely starting line-up, I think you can be confident there is no shortage of people being concerned about the bench.

 

Good post!

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Yup just like last year.  We will probably be tanking again.

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I think we should talk to the Jets about Bridgewater as I don’t buy that Peterman will work out and he would be an upgrade for depth, but I seriously doubt the Jets would shop him to a division rival.

 

He could if they did go for it would be an upgrade and compete with McCarren for the starting role.  If he gets hurt again we can always move Peterman back up from the practice squad.  He still new enough would qualify for the practice squad.

 

lets face it Allen needs to sit for a year.

Peterman would get snatch up in a hurry if they tried to PS him.

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I think most people are ignoring the "depth issues" on the Bills, because they are more concerned with the holes in the starting lineup.

 

Considering the Bills made the playoffs last year (when many thought they would be tanking), I'm certain my opinion will get a lot of backlash.

 

But truthfully, I think the Bills were very lucky (mostly due to weak Wild-Card competition in the AFC).  This really wasn't a playoff-caliber roster last season.  Now with the unexpected losses of Eric Wood and Ritchie Incognito, the trading of Cordy Glenn, and the high probability we start a rookie QB - it would be totally reasonable to expect us to take a step backwards in the win column in 2018.

 

I think the Beane/McDermott plan is clear.  Become a true AFC playoff contender in 2019.

Last year was about purging the roster for draft picks, but we got lucky and squeaked into the playoffs.  This year is about adding the franchise QB, some key pieces on defense and fully transitioning the mentality of the locker room to McDermott's vision.  Next year, the Bills have all their draft picks, tons of cap room and should have Josh Allen ready to lead the team.

 

 

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8 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I think we should talk to the Jets about Bridgewater as I don’t buy that Peterman will work out and he would be an upgrade for depth, but I seriously doubt the Jets would shop him to a division rival.

 

He could if they did go for it would be an upgrade and compete with McCarren for the starting role.  If he gets hurt again we can always move Peterman back up from the practice squad.  He still new enough would qualify for the practice squad.

 

lets face it Allen needs to sit for a year.

Did you call in to One Bills Live today?  17 straight days of rain?

Edited by COBillsBacker
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5 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Peterman would get snatch up in a hurry if they tried to PS him.

 

Yes every team needs someone to throw balls to DBs. 

He would be "snatch up" in a hurry.  Sounds like a prostitute when you word it that way.

4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I think most people are ignoring the "depth issues" on the Bills, because they are more concerned with the holes in the starting lineup.

 

Considering the Bills made the playoffs last year (when many thought they would be tanking), I'm certain my opinion will get a lot of backlash.


Well based on results I think many thoughts should be discounted.

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10 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

only worry about things I have no control over. The rest I know I'll get sorted out.

And yes, I do judge a book by its cover. There is no point to judging a book after I buy it and read it. That time and money is gone forever.

Of course I count my chickens before they are hatched. Then I count them again after they are hatched. Is inventory tracking so wrong?

I would totally buy the cow even if I can get its milk for free because, when I get tired of milk: steaks!

I confess, I do watch the pot until it boils. Watching pots does not effect boiling time and chef's like me need to know when its time to add the cheese powder.

I will not pay a penny for your thoughts...ever. But I am open to negotiations on what it will cost me for you not to share your thoughts.

I have never barked at any tree let alone the wrong tree. If you have, tree selection is not your only problem.

I do try never to cross a bridge until I come to it because, crossing it before you get to it is not possible under the current laws of physics.

I don't put my eggs in any basket because: egg cartons, duh. 

I does not take two to tango. I tango by myself all the time and, don't deny it, you do too.

It is my policy to always let the cat out of the bag because keeping cats in bags is just wrong.

 

 

 

 

This here is one of the best posts i have ever read. And i have read a few.
 

Thank you for making my Day  Mickey.
 each point is is On Point. and flippin hilariously presented.
Fairly awesome work !

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23 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I would imagine if you went on other teams' sites their fans are worried about depth too.

With the salary cap and parody in the NFL almost all teams are slim on the bench.  Drafting is important!  When teams get a deep roster the draft is replenishing the starters and is the depth.  It’s rare and a handful of teams are able to be built this way!

 

Hopefully in two years we will be one of the handful of teams!

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2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Ive can add global warming, Zika, AI taking over the human race, asteroids hurtling through space toward earth and your kids college tuition. 

 

Youre welcome

 

ps- Russia

 

Well, if AI takes over, they may take over the NFL.  Then we could get Cyberball!

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19 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

I more concerned about our height.  This a 3D league now. 

Just imagine if it was a 4D league...we wouldn't even know how much time we should spend worrying about the other three dimensions. 

11 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

only worry about things I have no control over. The rest I know I'll get sorted out.

And yes, I do judge a book by its cover. There is no point to judging a book after I buy it and read it. That time and money is gone forever.

Of course I count my chickens before they are hatched. Then I count them again after they are hatched. Is inventory tracking so wrong?

I would totally buy the cow even if I can get its milk for free because, when I get tired of milk: steaks!

I confess, I do watch the pot until it boils. Watching pots does not effect boiling time and chef's like me need to know when its time to add the cheese powder.

I will not pay a penny for your thoughts...ever. But I am open to negotiations on what it will cost me for you not to share your thoughts.

I have never barked at any tree let alone the wrong tree. If you have, tree selection is not your only problem.

I do try never to cross a bridge until I come to it because, crossing it before you get to it is not possible under the current laws of physics.

I don't put my eggs in any basket because: egg cartons, duh. 

It does not take two to tango. I tango by myself all the time and, don't deny it, you do too.

It is my policy to always let the cat out of the bag because keeping cats in bags is just wrong.

 

 

 

 

And if internet pornography has taught us anything at all, a bird in the hand is never, ever equal to two in the bush. 

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On ‎5‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 8:31 AM, MAJBobby said:

Yeah depth issues kind of happen when 

 

3.  You are in Cap Hell due to a couple reasons, ie bad contracts and you cleaning up those bad contracts  

 

$35M in Dead Money is gonna impact the quality of your depth.  Opens some opportunities for the younger less expensive players.  Here's hoping some of them take advantage and make a name for themselves.

 

CORRECTION - $46M with the release of EW.

 

Edited by napmaster
Release of EW changed Dead Money Number
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I'm not worried about depth.  Depth is about coaching, not players, and McDermott's system is a good system for developing depth.   Here's why:

 

Talented players, guys talented enough to play in the NFL or be among the last cut, are all out on the far right end of the bell curve.   There are a couple of things that are true about players at the end of the bell curve:

 

1.  The farther out the curve you go, the fewer players there are.

 

2.  The farther out the curve you go, the talent differences get larger.

 

Now, that's not true in every case, but on average, in most cases, it's true.   

 

What does that mean?   It means when MIchael Jordan is the best basketball player, he's farthest out on the bell curve, there aren't many guys in his vicinity, and the differences between Jordan and the guys near him are relatively big. 

 

What's important about that is not who's out there with Jordan.  What's important is the 300th best player in the NBA.   He's not way out there with Jordan, not close.   There are a lot of guys at the same place on the curve with him, and there's very little difference between them.   That is, the 300th player isn't that much better than the 310th player or that much worse than the 290th player.   They're all about the same - 20 guys, all about the same.   Are there differences?  Sure, but they aren't very big differences.  

 

When you're talking about depth, your talking about relatively small differences among players.   Take offensive tackles.   There are 64 starting offensive tackles in the league, and those 64 guys are probably in the top 75 or 80 of all offensive tackles in the league.   A few teams have a backup tackle who is better than some starters around the league, but not very many.   Most of the best tackles are playing somewhere.    

 

That means the backups generally fall between, say, the top 60 and the top 100 tackles in pro football, and the guys who got cut and are waiting to get a phone call are in the top 100 to 120.   Because the bell curve works the same way wherever you are on it, the differences between a guy who's the 75th best tackle and the guy who is the 100th best tackle aren't that great - about the same, probably as the difference between the best tackle and the 5th best tackle.   If you have the 5th best tackle, you don't care too much that you don't have the best.   If you have the 100th best tackle, you don't care too much that you don't have the 75th.   It's sounds odd, but it's statistically true.

 

So fretting about the talent the Bills have on the bench doesn't make that much sense to me.   The best you can expect to have is a guy who has started in the league but isn't starting now, like Ivory.   Most of your backups are going to be guys who haven't started, which means they're in among the 60th to 100th best player at the position, and any guy the Bills can get to replace him isn't going to be much different.  

 

What matters is coaching.   McDermott's "process" is designed to do what Belichick does - teach players with decent talent (backups) how to execute the position.   And that's why there's so much emphasis on character.   The difference between 75th best player and the 100th best player that matters the most is how hard the guy is going to work, how committed he is to getting every little detail right all the time, because it's THOSE characteristics that are going to make an average backup get the job done when the time comes.  

 

Austin Proehl is an example.   The guy presumably doesn't have stellar talent.   What he has is work ethic.   He's the kind of guy who will get the job done because he will practice everything until he can do it as well as he possibly can do it.   Belichick wanted Hogan for the same reason.   

 

I don't worry about backups.   If McDermott is doing his job, the backups will be okay.   I worry about the weakest starters, and I worry about the coaches who run the offense and the defense.   Those are the guys who matter. 

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4 hours ago, Manther said:

With the salary cap and parody in the NFL almost all teams are slim on the bench. 

 

The NFL does not have parody. It is not tolerated which is why it has become known as the No Fun League. Otherwise, celebrating a touchdown by pretending to film from behind the goalpost while using the ball as a prop would not draw any fines.

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25 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

 

The NFL does not have parody. It is not tolerated which is why it has become known as the No Fun League. Otherwise, celebrating a touchdown by pretending to film from behind the goalpost while using the ball as a prop would not draw any fines.

The NFL will have parody when Weird Al is the halftime act at the Super Bowl.

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17 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Yes every team needs someone to throw balls to DBs. 

He would be "snatch up" in a hurry.  Sounds like a prostitute when you word it that way. 


Well based on results I think many thoughts should be discounted.

He still has potential and that is what teams look at.

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16 hours ago, Manther said:

With the salary cap and parody in the NFL almost all teams are slim on the bench.  Drafting is important!  When teams get a deep roster the draft is replenishing the starters and is the depth.  It’s rare and a handful of teams are able to be built this way!

 

Hopefully in two years we will be one of the handful of teams!

Ii agree that all teams are looking for depth.  I disagree that it's about player selection.  

 

Bench players are by definition marginal NFL players. Only occasionally does a team have a starter caliber guy on the bench.  

 

Teams that have good depth have good coaches who know how to get good play out of marginal players. 

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