If Sammy has a breakout 2017 year - How will the office feel

[BringBackFergy]

If? If?

 

If we stayed put and drafted OBJ instead of Sammy, we wouldn't have lost our first round pick the following year.

[kota]

if he has a big season you franchise him.

[John from Riverside]

If? If?

 

If we stayed put and drafted OBJ instead of Sammy, we wouldn't have lost our first round pick the following year.

at the time we drafted Watkins OBJ reminded me of Roscoe Parrish

 

Sometimes....you just get it wrong

Edited May 8, 2017 by John from Hemet

[BringBackFergy]

at the time we drafted Watkins OBJ reminded me of Roscoe Parrish

 

Sometimes....you just get it wrong

Getting it wrong is ok...getting it wrong and giving up a coveted first round pick the next year is altogether clueless. Thanks for the memories Whales.

[PromoTheRobot]

How would they feel? Happy, I hope. What he cost you draft day is immaterial at this point.

[Bill_with_it]

If he has a breakout season and remains healthy and available for play, its not a question if we will retain him, its where will pegs back the brinks up to...

[scribo]

I don't typically worry about the possibility of a Bills player doing great.

[TPS]

Sammy is the guy who said they need more structure and discipline when Rex left

the structure bar was set pretty low under the Ryan clowns. Edited May 8, 2017 by TPS

[oldmanfan]

the structure bar was set pretty low under the Ryan clowns.

And Sammy wanted it higher

[cba fan]

No way could they excercise the 5 tth year option as it was guarenteed for injury. (why that would be the case I do not know)

 

Too big of a risk. If he fails physical Mar of 2018 Bills on hook for all of the 15 mill or so for 2018.

[Scott7975]

It should make them feel like they have to open up the checkbook to sign him to another contract. That should be something you hope for when you trade up like the Bills did.

[Augie]

If he does, he will be offered a big extension with us.

And we'll just never, ever know what would have happened if we had taken the 5th year. Maybe the bad injury trend just passed, maybe he was extra motivated by a contract year, we will never know. I just hope it happens! It's done, so I won't waste energy lamenting or complaining. (Though personally I would have taken the option.)

[Virgil]

How would they feel if a player does really well?

 

Um, pretty good I would think.

[YoloinOhio]

I don't typically worry about the possibility of a Bills player doing great.

this. The office will feel quite good, I predict.

[Doc Brown]

Management will regret not picking up his 5th year option, but we'll all be excited. Franchise tag him or sign him to long term deal.

[BillsFan17]

Management will regret not picking up his 5th year option, but we'll all be excited. Franchise tag him or sign him to long term deal.

Based on what exactly? Because, to date, Watkins is a bust. Edited May 9, 2017 by BillsFan17

[3rdand12]

Granted - that's if he remains healthy - but if he does have a great 2017 season, how will the front office feel and how should us the fanbase think afterwards ??

 

I personally thought it over and would not know how to feel cause the kid has pulled through for us when we most needed his efforts (hurt and all)

pay the kid is my first response.But not my final one.

I ascribe this to what I call the Flacco plan. I'd rather overpay more after they do something than overpay somewhat less out of fear that they might.

zen perspective. very balanced. and i agree.

 

I really Want to pay him the money he earned.

 

be careful though. he plays elite? he gets paid elite

You wouldn't know how you would feel if Watkins has a great season?

Lotta money might be invested into him on a long term contract. if i stew on it, i have mixed emoticons

I would imagine they'll back a Brink's truck up to his locker

and then how do we afford the Franchise QB we so dearly desire.

just kiddin. mostly...

 

I know the answer actually we draft him next year using Bills two firsts

I don't typically worry about the possibility of a Bills player doing great.

because it is so unusual, it IS a great topic. it might happen !

Edited May 9, 2017 by 3rdand12

[eball]

Dumb post (sorry). If Sammy has an awesome year there is no reason for any Bills fan to be anything other than thrilled.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Make us want you big time Sammy.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Great. Gamble paid off. Then they'll either franchise or pay the man. Simple.

[Big Blitz]

He's had numerous injuries.

 

I have no doubt that he'd accept an extension rather then get franchised and hope he makes it thru a 2018 season injury free and then cash in.

 

 

Sammy ain't going nowhere unless he plays himself out of a job.

 

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

 

[Domdab99]

Granted - that's if he remains healthy - but if he does have a great 2017 season, how will the front office feel and how should us the fanbase think afterwards ??

 

I personally thought it over and would not know how to feel cause the kid has pulled through for us when we most needed his efforts (hurt and all)

 

I don't understand these kind of posts. The FO did not "diss" Sammy. They made a smart move. If Sammy does great - and I hope he does - they will happily pay him the big bucks. Duh.

Edited May 9, 2017 by Domdab99

[ajmac]

Under the Pegulas, the Bills do not have a "cheap" mentality.

 

I can guarantee you they are pulling for Sammy Watkins to come back 100% healthy and to become a Pro-Bowl receiver going forward. Just like I can guarantee you they are pulling for Tyrod Taylor to take a big step in his development, and become a hands-down franchise quarterback. They are not hoping for these guys to fail, just so they can get away without giving them a big $$$ extension.

 

The Bills front office is just being cautious, and playing it safe before locking themselves into big/long-term contracts. Personally, I think it's a smart avenue to take.

You would think most people would realize that and stop reading too much into it. Risk management guys,...this was the right move to make. They also drafted a receiver good enough that if they are not really sure about Sammy, they could move on if necessary. I hope he has a good year and somehow we can figure out how to keep him, but I will understand if they let him go.

 

The real question is, what if Sammy stays healthy all year, but Zay looks much better than Sammy throughout the season. So you go into an odd season, Sammy totally healthy for the first time, but he almost looks like the number two compared to Zay. He is going to want number one money!! What then?

[ALF]

If Sammy is healthy and plays well , try to sign him long term before trade deadline. I don't like the tag so try to trade if he insists on becoming a FA. A 2nd or 3rd rd is better then nothing if he walks. Never count on comp picks when we need to fill holes.

[YoloinOhio]

@smolaDS

In Rick Dennison's last 4 seasons as OC, his top WR has seen the following target shares:

29.8%

28.6%

29.2%

25.3%

 

#Bills #SammyWatkins

[K-9]

@smolaDS

In Rick Dennison's last 4 seasons as OC, his top WR has seen the following target shares:

29.8%

28.6%

29.2%

25.3%

 

#Bills #SammyWatkins

We need Bandit to analyze these target rates and project Sammy's numbers based on that analysis.

[P51]

He will get extended for sure with a breakout season, I think he will put up 1400 yards and 10 TD's this year. Hope I am right. Julio Jones got past the same foot injury and put up similiar numbers his first 3 seasons, and that is with Matt Ryan consistantly throwing to him. I know Sammy is not Julio but just saying.

 

Sammy has the ability to be every bit as good IMO, #TMobileAintNoMattyICE.

 

I do find it interesting that their injury history has some similarities regarding the foot and hope Sammy comes out of the 2nd surgery with the same outcome physically as Julio.

 

@smolaDS

In Rick Dennison's last 4 seasons as OC, his top WR has seen the following target shares:

29.8%

28.6%

29.2%

25.3%

 

#Bills #SammyWatkins

 

#FeedSammy #Winning

[BuffaloHokie13]

We need Bandit to analyze these target rates and project Sammy's numbers based on that analysis.

I'm not Bandit, but I did this analysis in another Sammy Thread

 

Okay, so out of curiosity I did some research. Here are the stats for the top 2 receivers every year in the Kubiak/Dennison offense since 2010:

 

2010 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 86 Catches, 138 Targets, 1216 Yards, 8 TD

Kevin Walter - 51 Catches, 80 Targets, 621 Yards, 5 TD

 

2011 Houston Texans (An outlier, for certain):

Owen Daniels - 54 Catches, 84 Targets, 677 Yards, 3 TD

Arian Foster - 53 Catches, 71 Targets, 617 Yards, 2 TD

 

2012 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 112 Catches, 164 Targets, 1598 Yards, 4 TD

Owen Daniels - 62 Catches, 103 Targets, 716 Yards, 6 TD

 

2013 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 109 Catches, 181 Targets, 1407 Yards, 5 TD

Deandre Hopkins - 52 Catches, 93 Targets, 802 Yards, 2 TD

 

2014 Baltimore Ravens:

Steve Smith - 79 Catches, 133 Targets, 1065 Yards, 6 TD

Torrey Smith - 49 Catches, 93 Targets, 767 Yards, 11 TD

 

2015 Denver Broncos:

Demaryius Thomas - 105 Catches, 176 Targets, 1304 Yards, 6 TD

Emmanuel Sanders - 76 Catches, 137 Targets, 1135 Yards, 6 TD

 

2016 Denver Broncos:

Demaryius Thomas - 90 Catches, 145 Targets, 1083 Yards, 5 TD

Emmanuel Sanders - 79 Catches, 139 Targets, 1032 Yards, 5 TD

 

Based on that, I think it's reasonable to expect a healthy Sammy to see 140-160 Targets with #2 (Clay maybe?) seeing another 90-105 Targets. Also, considering only 1 receiver on that list eclipsed 10 TDs I probably wouldn't expect a 10 TD Season out of Sammy.

[P51]

I'm not Bandit, but I did this analysis in another Sammy Thread

 

 

Bandito you are not, quality work non the less, thank you for re-posting

[liverpoolkev]

Then we franchise tag him, which is only about $2 million more than his option would have been. The difference is that we don't have to decide on the franchise tag until after this season.

we will have to franchise him....Watkins see this dumpster fire not getting better for another 3-4 years ending with a new coach and GM. Watkins and Benjamin and Cam Wow this is what you get when you let a first yr coach try to play with personnel.

[Big Turk]

Based on what exactly? Because, to date, Watkins is a bust.

Far from a bust...go check the comparison between Watkins and Julio Jones over their first 3 years, dealing with the same injury and then get back to us...numbers are nearly identical

Edited May 10, 2017 by matter2003

[Sisyphean Bills]

Guess: Like they found their franchise QB.

[8-8 Forever?]

Then we franchise tag him, which is only about $2 million more than his option would have been. The difference is that we don't have to decide on the franchise tag until after this season.

Correct. They made the right move. Hope he turns it around . He's a great talent on paper. He'll attract extra coverage since no #2 has emerged, so that could be a problem..

[sjjr]

He'll be motivated and will most likely be very productive. The nagging injuries and other things shouldn't be an issue this season.

 

From there he'll want a big contract extension or maybe a move to another team for more money. The Bills should look at franchising him or signing an extension very incentive based. He'll have great trade value if Z.Jones is ready to produce or they can stay with him.

 

The Bills need to be very careful what kind of players they sign to long term deals going forward. The last few long term extensions have not produced the way they thought.

[PlayoffsPlease]

I don't think any of us know if McDermott or Beane think using $13+ MM per year on one WR is a good use of the salary cap or not. There are two facts that we do know:

1. In 2016, the Panthers spent a total of $8,550,593 on its entire wide receiver corp.
2. In 2017 McDermott declined to pick up Watson's option.

Personally, I subscribe to the theory that the Bills just decided they would rather make an extension/franchise decision after the season than an option decision prior to the season. But it is very possible that McBeane has no interest in 8 figure WR contracts.

[BarleyNY]

Really, that's all?

 

Now I understand why they did it.

 

Bills knew they would have to make a decision on Sammy, one way or the other, sooner or later. They decided they could risk the $2 million to be free to cut ties early if they want to.

 

 

It'll probably be closer to a $3M difference. His option would've been for $13.3M. The 2017 franchise tag numbers haven't been calculated yet, but it was $15.7M got 2016.

 

I think we'll be happy to franchise him and work on an extension if he has the top5 year he is capable of

Lots needs to happen for that. He's got to stay healthy and he's got to get fed the ball. Neither is a given by any stretch. The the Bills need to be comfortable tagging him or giving him a big extension. That will depend on his productio and their comfort level with his long term health. And let's not forget that any long term deal needs Sammy's blessing. The Bills probably can't tag him more than once (that's where the option would've been handy).

 

Reality is that 2017 is almost certainly it for Sammy in Buffalo. But maybe they can tag and trade him if he stays healthy.

[bisonbrigade]

Breakout year as in Broken foot? LOL

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Granted - that's if he remains healthy - but if he does have a great 2017 season, how will the front office feel and how should us the fanbase think afterwards ??

 

I personally thought it over and would not know how to feel cause the kid has pulled through for us when we most needed his efforts (hurt and all)

 

I don't think there is any doubt how the fanbase should feel - thrilled if that happens!

 

That's because if Sammy has a great 2017 season, 3 things have happened:

1) Sammy stayed healthy and stayed in the playbook full-effort all season - yea!

2) Bills got improved QB pass play out of someone - the Tyrod we saw in the 2nd to last game of 2016 would do

3) Bills OL pass protection improved in quality and consistency

4) Bills got quality WR play out of at least 2 other players (or a WR and TE) to prevent teams from just blanketing Sammy

 

What would be not to like about that?

 

If it happens, I expect the Bills to offer Sammy what they see as a fair market value contract, and if he doesn't take it, to franchise him.

That's essentially the trade-off the Bills were making when they didn't pick up his 5th year option: "we're willing to risk paying $3M more to tag you, rather than risk having to pay your salary in full your fifth year if you're injured again."

 

[blacklabel]

I hope they would feel like, "Awesome, there's the kid everyone's been waiting for, now let's hammer out an extension."

[Best Player Available]

Great. Gamble paid off. Then they'll either franchise or pay the man. Simple.

It's only simple if the player. Wants to remain here. He does not have too sign. Sure there would be a holdout. I would think he felt somewhat pissed at this. Make it up and extend him late this season. Somewhere maybe on this board.somebody said around 5% of players not extended the 5th year option don't resign with the team that drafted them. Pretty sure sammy will not shed a tear if he plays elsehwere.

 

Just a wild guess I bet 31 other NFL teams would take him if healthy. And the crazy money would be more than the new staff values him. They have zero attachment to the 23'year old stud receiver. The fact that some think the 5th year option comes out of their own pockets is perplexing. Don't let #14 out of the door. The team is devoid of playmakers on offense. Past #14 and a 29 year old high mileage back. To think the receiver corps is set for 17 is simply mot true. No Sammy in 18 would not be good at all. Of course the QB has nothing too do with recievers putting up elite numbers either.

Edited May 11, 2017 by Best Player Available