The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

[Dillenger4]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I could be convinced to send them Pick 60 for Aiyuk.  Definitely not 33, let alone both. 

 

He's going to command 30M per year.  No way I'm trading away heavy pick premium for the right to pay a dude all that. 

Word is SF wants draft capital and will eat some $y.

[Brandon]

9 minutes ago, Process said:

This makes a lot of sense. Hard to see them going WR at 33 but hope I'm wrong. 

 

Trade down also seems very likely.

 

Could be,  but DeJean is kind of a rare traits type.   I'm not sure they would have risked losing him in a trade down if he was definitely their guy.  

[Livinginthepast]

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Anyone think one of these two wrestling centers- Powers-Johnson and Frazier- might be in play?

 

I think it's interior OL, DeJean, or another trade back.

 

Don't forget about Newton too...he could be an option here as well.  But I do agree, I think if I had to guess who is BPA right now at this pick on Beane's board it is probably not a WR given the players who are still on the board.  Maybe Mitchell, McConkey, or Franklin could be, or at least close...just the value on a couple of these other guys seems pretty high right now.  

 

[No_Matter_What]

13 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

why would Mitchell be off the board?

Just my feeling. Medical concerns and red flag regarding his effort.

 

Also, if he was on our board, I believe he'd be our pick at 28. Franklin/Coleman/McConkey could be had later thus the trade down.

[ngbills]

10 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Very puzzling to give up the 5th year of player control for what?

Beane knows this trend in WR pay is going to reverse by then because he is a wizard.  

[SWATeam]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Don't forget about Newton too...he could be an option here as well.  But I do agree, I think if I had to guess who is BPA right now at this pick on Beane's board it is probably not a WR given the players who are still on the board.  Maybe Mitchell, McConkey, or Franklin could be, or at least close...just the value on a couple of these other guys seems pretty high right now.  

 

Newton is intriguing.  I like Fiske and Jenkins too, maybe one (obviously not Newton) might last to 60

 

[Lagoon Blues]

18 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

why would Mitchell be off the board?

Because people believe 2 "unnamed scouts" who trashed him.

[BananaB]

57 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Are people hating on Cooper DeJean because they don’t want a defensive player? Even if he is clearly the best available in a pretty thin safety class?

Don’t we have two safeties with starting experience on the roster? Its  not a difficult position to find capable players. Jmo. Bills need is at WR and if they keep moving back at some point they will regret it. Can’t keep neglecting this position

[Yobogoya!]

23 minutes ago, Process said:

This makes a lot of sense. Hard to see them going WR at 33 but hope I'm wrong. 

 

Trade down also seems very likely.

I feel like people have gone a little crazy all off-season honing in on WR. Yes that’s an obvious needs, but we need a lot of help at several positions, including DB. 
 

Just take the best player. We need top shelf players more than anything else. If Dejean can perform at an elite level in the McD system, I’d take that over the 7th or 8th best WR prospect. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

25 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

He played one snap at safety last year, all the rest at CB. Not saying he can't play safety, but Iowa just didn't use him as one

I think he played 1 snap at deep safety, 23 in the box safety (91 the year prior) and the majority of the rest at outside CB.

 

Edited April 26 by TheyCallMeAndy

[hondo in seattle]

30 minutes ago, Yantha said:

I'm serious when I say I hope we go with FS Cooper DeJean.  Read on before the barf emoji....  lol

 

Looking at the board, he's clearly the BPA at a position of need.  What a slip.  He is Eric Weddle 2.0, and we lost both our star safeties without properly replacing them....  FS is a very high need.

 

Hoping to TRADE UP from 60 to grab one of the following WRs:

Adonai Mitchell

Ja'Lynn Polk

 

Failing that, there are plenty of options to fill the role we need:

Jalen McMillan

Jermaine Burton

Brenden Rice (son of Rice... I mean c'mon...)

Javon Baker

Luke McCaffrey (field stretcher)

 

DO 

NOT 

PANIC

 

I once listened to an interview with a successful GM - I think it was Ron Wolf.  He said that he considered a draft decent if he got one Pro Bowler out of it and it didn't matter if the guy came from the 4th round and the 1st rounder was a bust.  A really good draft netted him two Pro Bowlers.  That's how he rated his drafts.  

 

He explained that most players fill roles (i.e., they're JAGS).   To win a SB, you needed players who were difference-makers.  

 

He said that it's better to get a difference-maker at a position you may not need than a role-player at a position where you do have a need.  

 

I rarely watch college football and am no talent scout.  But if DeJean is truly a difference-maker when the WRs left are mediocre role-players, then I'm all for the pick. 

  

[ndirish1978]

7 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

Because people believe 2 "unnamed scouts" who trashed him.

 

Taking plays off isn't the unnamed scouts though, it's right there on tape.

[BuffaloBill]

10 hours ago, Old Coot said:

Why would the Panthers trade to jump ahead of the Bills? Presumably they were afraid the Bills would take their guy Legette.

 

 

But the Bills likely found out who Carolina would take with the pick before the trade.  To me it seems the Bills did not want Legette and certainly not that high.

[Roundybout]

 

[UKBillFan]

19 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I could be convinced to send them Pick 60 for Aiyuk.  Definitely not 33, let alone both. 

 

He's going to command 30M per year.  No way I'm trading away heavy pick premium for the right to pay a dude all that. 

 

The Bills could send them 33 or 60 plus a second from 2025 - it'd still leave them with a pick in round two next year. If the 49ers are happy to eat some of his contract as well...

 

The more time goes on the more I think Diggs' trade was down to desperation to get him out of the building rather than a carefully planned transition. But I imagine, to others, that was obvious from the start.

[Ralonzo]

42 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

I'd be worried That Franklin doesnt last to 47 and Baker doesn't last to 95

 

Worried sure, but there'd have to be a plan B/C/D in place. But at some point, not every team can draft every receiver every round. If you have multiple paths to complement your roster with the right receiver types - would Franklin & Baker be so much preferable to say, Coleman and McCaffrey, or hell even Tez Walker and Bub Means. Maybe yes, maybe the value isn't there, maybe the value needs to be spent elsewhere and make do with what you can get.

 

A lot of this exercise centers around who's projected to be available in that mock. So far, Brugler has been decent in projecting value - with the main outliers being Nix and the 3 receivers selected at the end of R1, all of whom had round 2 or round 3 grades. If Beane's grades track to that, he absolutely made the right call to let other teams reach and give you their surplus value. The amount that the Bills are getting killed by the media doesn't surprise me though.

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

I feel like people have gone a little crazy all off-season honing in on WR. Yes that’s an obvious needs, but we need a lot of help at several positions, including DB. 
 

Just take the best player. We need top shelf players more than anything else. If Dejean can perform at an elite level in the McD system, I’d take that over the 7th or 8th best WR prospect. 

 

People have not gone crazy.  It's obvious.

 

We have Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins.  That's really it. 

 

Even with all the defensive injuries last year, we beat KC in the playoffs if we weren't down to a checked-out Diggs and Trent Sherfield as our two weapons spazzing out all game while Shakir was the only one doing anything.  

 

WR matters so, sooo much more than a starting Safety or some rotational DL.  

 

Nobody has gone crazy.  We've seen this team neglect WR year in/year out, and we've now seen it bite us when it matters most two years in a row. 

[Bruffalo]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

 

The Bills could send them 33 or 60 plus a second from 2025 - it'd still leave them with a pick in round two next year. If the 49ers are happy to eat some of his contract as well...

 

The more time goes on the more I think Diggs' trade was down to desperation to get him out of the building rather than a carefully planned transition. But I imagine, to others, that was obvious from the start.

That's way too much to give up. I'm fine with giving up 60 this year and I could be talked into a 2-3rd next year, but they shouldn't give up pick 33. 

[That's No Moon]

12 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

Because people believe 2 "unnamed scouts" who trashed him.

And also because he was relatively unproductive over 3 years at two different, very successful, college programs.  He had one good year. He's far from a slam dunk choice.

[Low Positive]

Just now, UKBillFan said:

 

The Bills could send them 33 or 60 plus a second from 2025 - it'd still leave them with a pick in round two next year. If the 49ers are happy to eat some of his contract as well...

 

The more time goes on the more I think Diggs' trade was down to desperation to get him out of the building rather than a carefully planned transition. But I imagine, to others, that was obvious from the start.

I actually think that the Panthers did this because they needed to foster some goodwill with their downtrodden fan base and wanted to give them something to talk about on night one of the draft. Because it is obvious that they could have had Leggett at 33. I also think that the Chiefs could have stayed at 32 and taken Worthy. In  both cases Beane got something for nothing. But I still hate what he did in the context of the Diggs trade. If we still had Stef, it would be OK to trade down and take a DB with 33 and get a complementary WR later in round two. But we have a gaping hole at one of the 2-3 positions that actually win football games (QB, pass catchers, pass rush) but it seems like Beane is acting like a grandpa and shaking his cane and yelling "defense wins championships!!!!!!"

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, Bruffalo said:

That's way too much to give up. I'm fine with giving up 60 this year and I could be talked into a 2-3rd next year, but they shouldn't give up pick 33. 

 

Fair enough. Was just emphasising the Bills could send two seconds to the 49ers without losing both from this year.

 

33 for DeJean, then 60 and a 2025 2nd for Aiyuk, with the 49ers eating part of the contract?

[Norcalbillsfan]

10 hours ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

COOOOP!!!

I'd take this all day. Not sure why people will grab pitch forks if you can get a guy that might have a higher ceiling than poyer/Hyde in thier primes in the 2nd. I'll admit I wanted Leggett but if beane uses the ammo to trade back up and still get a guy like ladd or baker and Cooper I'd be excited.

[njbuff]

Who knows, there could be a team that is desperate enough to offer next years 1st rounder for that 33rd overall pick. 
 

It’s doubtful, but it has happened before.

 

The Bills have at least given themselves that option.

 

Nicely played by Beane.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

BPA: 

 

NFL.com

WR McConkley 

CB McKinsty 

RB Brooks

 

ESPN

DB DeJean

DT Newton

CB McKinstry

 

CBS 

WR McConkley

DB DeJean

DT Newton

PFF

DB DeJean

DT Newton

WR Mitchell

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, Norcalbillsfan said:

I'd take this all day. Not sure why people will grab pitch forks if you can get a guy that might have a higher ceiling than poyer/Hyde in thier primes in the 2nd. I'll admit I wanted Leggett but if beane uses the ammo to trade back up and still get a guy like ladd or baker and Cooper I'd be excited.

Can’t wait to watch that elite defense perform against elite offense like in 2020 or 2021 when we kept winning vs the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Fair enough. Was just emphasising the Bills could send two seconds to the 49ers without losing both from this year.

 

33 for DeJean, then 60 and a 2025 2nd for Aiyuk, with the 49ers eating part of the contract?

Aiyuk is asking for a trade because he wants a massive extension. How can the Niners eat part of a contract he doesn't have yet? 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Norcalbillsfan said:

I'd take this all day. Not sure why people will grab pitch forks if you can get a guy that might have a higher ceiling than poyer/Hyde in thier primes in the 2nd. I'll admit I wanted Leggett but if beane uses the ammo to trade back up and still get a guy like ladd or baker and Cooper I'd be excited.

 

Isn't he a corner though?  

[UKBillFan]

Just now, Low Positive said:

I actually think that the Panthers did this because they needed to foster some goodwill with their downtrodden fan base and wanted to give them something to talk about on night one of the draft. Because it is obvious that they could have had Leggett at 33. I also think that the Chiefs could have stayed at 32 and taken Worthy. In  both cases Beane got something for nothing. But I still hate what he did in the context of the Diggs trade. If we still had Stef, it would be OK to trade down and take a DB with 33 and get a complementary WR later in round two. But we have a gaping hole at one of the 2-3 positions that actually win football games (QB, pass catchers, pass rush) but it seems like Beane is acting like a grandpa and shaking his cane and yelling "defense wins championships!!!!!!"

 

Not to derail the thread but I think Diggs was traded because they had hoped to smooth over his relationship with Josh in the close season but hadn't managed to do so. There was too much animosity either one or both ways to get over and the Bills decided to cut him loose rather than try to manage it for another year. It wasn't planned, it wasn't what they wanted to do, and it's left them in a quandary as, as much as people may moan about the likes of Worthy and Legette, neither are championship standard #1 WRs (yet).

 

My hope is the pooling of picks is part of a plan to throw some at a veteran wide receiver (Aiyuk/Samuel or Sutton seem most likely) to take over that role. Then draft Franklin or McConkey as #4. I think it's the best the Bills can do considering the current situation. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That’s not my point.  I am arguing that if they really liked any the WR they would have taken one at 28 or 32.  The flip side would be that they liked so many equally that they felt they could trade down. 
 

Im just guessing, but based on Beane’s comment that they will get call for pick 33, I think he is looking to trade down again- likely because they aren’t crazy about any of the remaining receivers.

We’re going to see. But I’m thinking that (a) Beane isn’t picking a WR so why not get an extra draft pick for free or (b) Beane had a good hunch who Carolina and KC wanted so why not get multiple extra draft picks and then still get the WR he wanted all along at 33. 

Edited April 26 by SoCal Deek

[Yobogoya!]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

People have not gone crazy.  It's obvious.

 

We have Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins.  That's really it. 

 

Even with all the defensive injuries last year, we beat KC in the playoffs if we weren't down to a checked-out Diggs and Trent Sherfield as our two weapons spazzing out all game while Shakir was the only one doing anything.  

 

WR matters so, sooo much more than a starting Safety or some rotational DL.  

 

Nobody has gone crazy.  We've seen this team neglect WR year in/year out, and we've now seen it bite us when it matters most two years in a row. 

It’s crazy if you would rather the team reach for a suboptimal prospect instead of taking one with much higher potential to make a difference. 
 

Beane’s miscalculations at WR up to now is not a good reason to want to see him make another potential error. 
 

I mean if you’ve got a strong and high opinion on the remaining WR prospects, I get it. And that’s fine.

 

But if I’m looking at it pragmatically, I’m not picking WR at 33 just to do it. We’re obviously going to add bodies to this position in this draft, but I’ve got no problem if they wait until 60 or move up from 60 to do it. It’s same difference to me. 

[UKBillFan]

2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Aiyuk is asking for a trade because he wants a massive extension. How can the Niners eat part of a contract he doesn't have yet? 

 

Eat part of the current contract, get him off the roster and the Bills then look to re-work after June 1st when there's more cap space available?

 

Admittedly, I'm just spitballing. It may not be possible and the easier option would be someone like Sutton.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Not to derail the thread but I think Diggs was traded because they had hoped to smooth over his relationship with Josh in the close season but hadn't managed to do so. There was too much animosity either one or both ways to get over and the Bills decided to cut him loose rather than try to manage it for another year. It wasn't planned, it wasn't what they wanted to do, and it's left them in a quandary as, as much as people may moan about the likes of Worthy and Legette, neither are championship standard #1 WRs (yet).

 

My hope is the pooling of picks is part of a plan to throw some at a veteran wide receiver (Aiyuk/Samuel or Sutton seem most likely) to take over that role. Then draft Franklin or McConkey as #4. I think it's the best the Bills can do considering the current situation. 

Every time I read posts by you I have to remember that "close season" is British for "off-season."  But yeah, I agree with your post. They didn;t play this. But the inaction by Beane on this front displays a lack of urgency. I know that you can't draft for need, but at this point Josh is practically throwing the ball to himself, and this is after Beane talked about needed "explosive plays."

[Warcodered]

16 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

Troy Franklin feels like the guy they might like, with the attention he's gotten from them and the attention his QB got from them. As to the idea that they're not interested in WR because of the trade backs with two teams that took WR, feel like they probably had pretty good read on who those teams were taking, KC took the maybe Tyreek Hill can happen twice guy, and the Panthers practically took out a Billboard to announce Leggette.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

It’s crazy if you would rather the team reach for a suboptimal prospect instead of taking one with much higher potential to make a difference. 
 

Beane’s miscalculations at WR up to now is not a good reason to want to see him make another potential error. 
 

I mean if you’ve got a strong and high opinion on the remaining WR prospects, I get it. And that’s fine.

 

But if I’m looking at it pragmatically, I’m not picking WR at 33 just to do it. We’re obviously going to add bodies to this position in this draft, but I’ve got no problem if they wait until 60 or move up from 60 to do it. It’s same difference to me. 

WR’s make more difference than safeties. The 10th best WR in football makes more of a difference than the 2nd best safety.

[Bruffalo]

11 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Fair enough. Was just emphasising the Bills could send two seconds to the 49ers without losing both from this year.

 

33 for DeJean, then 60 and a 2025 2nd for Aiyuk, with the 49ers eating part of the contract?

Then trade back into the 2nd and pick up Troy Franklin or McConkey, instantly one of the best WR rooms in the NFL

[skibum]

Possible scenarios:

- Trade pick 33 today for a vet WR, probably to whichever team wants Cooper DeJean the most.

- Draft BPA = Cooper DeJean, and roll the dice on WR at 60. You know Beane loves it when a blue-chip prospect is available later than expected, ie Dalton Kincaid.

- Trade down a few more spots to likely still end up with one of the top 3 WR still available, and amass more mid-round ammo. 

 

Let's face it - None of these scenarios replaces the production of prime Diggs. All of them have big trade-offs. It's just not going to be a great draft for the Bills this year, sorry to say. 

 

And no way in hell Beane is drafting a guy named Kool Aid.

Edited April 26 by skibum

[UKBillFan]

Just now, Low Positive said:

Every time I read posts by you I have to remember that "close season" is British for "off-season."  But yeah, I agree with your post. They didn;t play this. But the inaction by Beane on this front displays a lack of urgency. I know that you can't draft for need, but at this point Josh is practically throwing the ball to himself, and this is after Beane talked about needed "explosive plays."

 

I'll try and remember to say off season moving forward!

 

I think the issue is there hasn't been much movement in the WR market since the end of the season and this draft pool has a lot of reasonable but very few great receivers. Plus the Diggs trade was quite late as well, relatively close to the draft itself. It was a worse scenario to find themselves in and, considering what the Vikings had to give up to move up the board yesterday, I think I'm glad Beane didn't follow suit - especially as the Bills would have had to trade more, having a lower pick to start with.

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

It’s crazy if you would rather the team reach for a suboptimal prospect instead of taking one with much higher potential to make a difference. 
 

Beane’s miscalculations at WR up to now is not a good reason to want to see him make another potential error. 
 

I mean if you’ve got a strong and high opinion on the remaining WR prospects, I get it. And that’s fine.

 

But if I’m looking at it pragmatically, I’m not picking WR at 33 just to do it. We’re obviously going to add bodies to this position in this draft, but I’ve got no problem if they wait until 60 or move up from 60 to do it. It’s same difference to me. 

 

Your initial point is that fans have gone over the top about WR.  

 

They absolutely have not.

 

That's a different conversation than what do we do now that we're in this situation. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

 But I still hate what he did in the context of the Diggs trade. If we still had Stef, it would be OK to trade down and take a DB with 33 and get a complementary WR later in round two. But we have a gaping hole at one of the 2-3 positions that actually win football games (QB, pass catchers, pass rush) but it seems like Beane is acting like a grandpa and shaking his cane and yelling "defense wins championships!!!!!!"

 

Not sure how you can come to this conclusion already when we haven't made a pick yet and there are still like 4-5 WR's that we could have picked anywhere from #28 to #40 and we wouldn't have been surprised. Franklin, McConkey, Coleman, AD Mitchell etc. I'm guessing Beane has about 4-5 WR's all with the same grade and that is why he moved down. Even if 2 of them are now gone, that still leaves 2 or 3 on his board at least.