CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

How do?  Because the refs allowed Jawaan Taylor to hold Bosa the entire game?  Grats

The TD vs the Steelers playoff game was certainly explosives.  Kincaid is certainly explosive when he catches and turns it upfield in one fluid motion.  I think we have different opinions of what explosive is. 

Fortunately we don’t need opinions when we have actual data to address the explosiveness question. 
 

in terms of YAC per reception. 
 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-te.php

 

Kincaid is solidly average. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

While I am fine with the signing, for this kind of money they could’ve landed D Hop last offseason.  I would really like to get past the era where Beane is still learning hard lessons.  I mean at least he adapts, but damn.

 

 

Yeah not getting DHop was just idiotic.   Hopkins was extraordinary AGAIN in 2023 despite a totally unstable QB situation.

 

 I like Samuel and the nice thing is that he likely has that 600 yard kinda "floor" but might also have the upside to be a poor man's Diggs replacement in 2025 if they decide to cut bait from Stefon.    It just would have been so much simpler to have a full size outside WR like Hopkins.   I understand there was some risk with Hopkins but his skillset was pretty unique and man..............could that offense have been explosive.

[Aussie Joe]

Matt Harmons reaction when he heard the news.. he loves him..

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Shakir vs Samuel in 2023

 

Shakir 39/45, 611 yds, 2 TDs, 15.7 yds/r, Catch % 86.7, 17 catches of 20+, 282 yds YAC, 7.2 yds yac/r, 0 drops  (The 7.2 tds yac/r was 3rd in the NFL for receivers with 20 or more receptions.)

 

Samuel 62/91, 613 yds, 4 TDs, 9.9 yds/r, Catch % 68.1, 11 catches of 20+, 260 yds YAC, 4.2 yds yac/r, 2 drops

[ngbills]

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Then you are saying Diggs shouldn't be outside. Same size and faster than Diggs.

 

Sorry the narrative doesn't hold water. 

Well his career thus far supports it. He has thrived as a slot not an outside guy. 

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

There is absolutely no comparison between Samuel and Crowder.  Samuel is a faster, bigger, stronger player.  He is a big play threat because of his ability to run after the catch.  Crowder was never a big play threat.  Samuel played a lot in the slot in Washington because Dotson and McLaurin don't.  He also played with very bad QB's.

Have you looked up Samuel’s longest reception each year? His avg reception. Big play threat? Really? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Shakir vs Samuel in 2023

 

Shakir 39/45, 611 yds, 2 TDs, 15.7 yds/r, Catch % 86.7, 17 catches of 20+, 282 yds YAC, 7.2 yds yac/r, 0 drops  (The 7.2 tds yac/r was 3rd in the NFL for receivers with 20 or more receptions.)

 

Samuel 62/91, 613 yds, 4 TDs, 9.9 yds/r, Catch % 68.1, 11 catches of 20+, 260 yds YAC, 4.2 yds yac/r, 2 drops

Different talents. Shakir definitely has an ability to make plays though. He’s also a great fit for what Joe Brady wants to do.

[papazoid]

50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah not getting DHop was just idiotic.   Hopkins was extraordinary AGAIN in 2023 despite a totally unstable QB situation.

 

 I like Samuel and the nice thing is that he likely has that 600 yard kinda "floor" but might also have the upside to be a poor man's Diggs replacement in 2025 if they decide to cut bait from Stefon.    It just would have been so much simpler to have a full size outside WR like Hopkins.   I understand there was some risk with Hopkins but his skillset was pretty unique and man..............could that offense have been explosive.

 

 

i love me some Dhop......i helped get to hundreds of pages...

 

Dhop signed with TEN for 2 yr / $26 mil / AAV $13 / 2024 cap of $18.3 / runs 4.57 / elite hands / 31 yo

 

Samuel signed with BUF for 3 yr / $24-30 ? / AAV $8-10 / 2024 cap of $8.0 ? / runs 4.31 / swiss army knife like deebo / 27 yo

 

younger, cheaper, faster

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Is it fair to say that Samuel gives us another Emmanuel Sanders, only this one is younger and more versatile? 

[No_Matter_What]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Dude is a speed demon...4.31 40 time...fills the John Brown role for us we have sorely missed 

People keep saying this but I don't see it. John Brown has career YPC 14.9 and had similar number while in Buffalo. Samuel has 10.7 and it was even less last two years.

 

I am not an expert but it clearly seems that he won't play John Brown's role unless we use him differently than he was used before.

[Whkfc]

6 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I want sacks.

Couldn't agree more this is the NFL dude had 4 sacks all year 2 of them against UMass in a 63-0 win. That is a 5th rd pick not a 1st. A guy with traits or production not both. 1st round guys have both.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, DrMaxPower said:

 

I'd consider a guy with Samuel's speed a vertical threat. That said, I do think it pins us down to a size prospect and eliminates someone like Ladd from likelihood.

 

But that isn't really his skillset. Can you send him on some go routes - sure. But being a vertical receiver isn't just about speed. Gabe Davis ran a 4.54 in the 40 but was a vertical receiver. It is as much about getting off press, using leverage, understanding spacings... Samuel's a guy whose skillset is much better suited to catching a 7 yad pass and making it a 17 yard play than someone who is routinely gonna win v boundary corners.

8 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I don't watch Commanders like at all but judging from his stats (10 YPC), does he play strictly slot?

 

Not strictly. But he has been about 80% a slot receiver in Washington. In Carolina it was more like 65% slot, 35% outside. 

38 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

People keep saying this but I don't see it. John Brown has career YPC 14.9 and had similar number while in Buffalo. Samuel has 10.7 and it was even less last two years.

 

I am not an expert but it clearly seems that he won't play John Brown's role unless we use him differently than he was used before.

 

Yea he is not John Brown. 

[Doc Brown]

32 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

People keep saying this but I don't see it. John Brown has career YPC 14.9 and had similar number while in Buffalo. Samuel has 10.7 and it was even less last two years.

 

I am not an expert but it clearly seems that he won't play John Brown's role unless we use him differently than he was used before.

He has the athleticism and physical profile of John Brown and the first seven years of production similar to Cole Beasley's.  He's not like either of those players as far as I can tell.  A poor man's Deebo Samuel?  At least that's the way Brady used him in Carolina.  It'll be interesting to see how he fits into this offense because it has me scratching my head.

[BeastMaster]

People need to watch more of Samuel because he does get behind the defense for big plays on occasion. He's definitely more than a slot guy.

 

I think his ability to make things happen after the catch has led to him being targeted more quickly which in turn has kept his YPC low, but the ability to make plays downfield is there.

[TheWeatherMan]

4 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Fortunately we don’t need opinions when we have actual data to address the explosiveness question. 
 

in terms of YAC per reception. 
 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-te.php

 

Kincaid is solidly average. 

My question is, Is this an offensive system problem?  The Bills all around have had poor YAC for years.

[Bookie Man]

Love it. Keep adding weapons. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

My question is, Is this an offensive system problem?  The Bills all around have had poor YAC for years.

 

A little bit. We run a lot of comeback concepts on the outside which are no great YAC opportunities and particularly under Dorsey we seemed to want outside leverage for our boundary receivers all the time which meant less opportunity to use the middle of the field.  However, it also a bit a result of Josh not being the best thrower of those swing passes and screens that tend to boost YAC numbers. His precision has never been great on those - he is often high which means a delay in our guys turning up field and allows the defense to rally and tackle. 

 

EDIT : should say we have improved ojr YAC performance a little bit just recently. There were a few years there early in Josh's career where we were bottom 3 or 4.

Edited March 15 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

I expect there will be lots of receptions at the LOS for this guy. They had Diggs receiving those throws late in the season and that’s not his game at all. 

Absolutely. Samuel is an ideal "screen guy". With Brady liking to throw those Im glad they identified that they needed someone with his skillset to run those rather than force it to Diggs. I anticipate those screens being more successful this season with Samuel.

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Different talents. Shakir definitely has an ability to make plays though. He’s also a great fit for what Joe Brady wants to do.

If you look at Bradys offense ( not the trash he was stuck with last year) Samuel is a perfect fit. 

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

My question is, Is this an offensive system problem?  The Bills all around have had poor YAC for years.

Yes.  Go back and look at film, we need 4-7 yards for a 1st down and all the routes are much deeper with no crossing, mesh, nothing.  It sucked.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

No wonder I don't know anything about this guy. He's been Washington's THIRD WR?

 

Inadequate.

[BananaB]

Davis was a mainly a deep threat because he was slow and couldn’t get separation early in routes. Very one dimensional player with poor hands. Samuel might be a bit of a Jack knife but he’s versatile, he can get open and he got reliable hands. You now have 3 guys like that so can put stress in defences… Teams were catching on to what Gabe does, it has lead to negative plays. 

[CSBill]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Just hope he stays healthy. He has been snake bit. 

 

I read he has not missed a game in two years.

[nucci]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Just hope he stays healthy. He has been snake bit. 

When was he bitten by a snake? 2021 only season his missed significant time.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

People need to watch more of Samuel because he does get behind the defense for big plays on occasion. He's definitely more than a slot guy.

 

I think his ability to make things happen after the catch has led to him being targeted more quickly which in turn has kept his YPC low, but the ability to make plays downfield is there.

He seems like a rich man's Shakir who is a little bit more experienced playing boundary WR, and has some juice being used out of the backfield.

 

After sleeping on it, I am fine with that. If there was one thing I held up as why I liked Brady better than Dorsey it's that Brady put an emphasis on scheming against the opponent each week. Against the Cowboys (who had no run defense) and the second Chiefs game (depleted defense, needed as much TOP as possible) he made excellent use of heavy sets. He attacked bad secondaries when he saw them. 

Last offseason I gushed about the possibilities of using a 2 TE set (Knox was the disappointment, not Kincaid) but now I'm seeing the advantage with 3 and 4 WR sets. Trot out Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid and Cook. 

Standard 3WR: already solid and versatile route options

4 "WR" using Kincaid

Bunch formation

 

Put Samuel in the backfield with Cook: There is that "incredibly annoying when used against us" pop handoff McDaniel used against us Week 18 that could go to either, leaving it up to Josh to read. Either can run normally. Play action to one to pass to the other. Motion Kincaid to the slot or split him out to the boundary.

 

Get a true burner X in this draft and the Bills can set up against nearly any defense in the league

[Dunkirk Donski]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

Get a true burner X in this draft and the Bills can set up against nearly any defense in the league

Fixed

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 minutes ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

Fixed

Haha fair. The overall point I am going for is that if the Bills are smart (and so far what I've seen from Beane and Brady has reasonably been so) is that the Bills aren't going to be a "stop X and you stop the offense"

 

We were that at stretches last year. If teams could shut down Diggs (and a lot made sure they did) it could be an absolute grind. Now, Shakir and Kincaid came along down the stretch and Cook became a revelation. With Samuel, and then a 2nd-3rd round burner then I really think Beane will have the luxury of BPA

[Dunkirk Donski]

2 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Haha fair. The overall point I am going for is that if the Bills are smart (and so far what I've seen from Beane and Brady has reasonably been so) is that the Bills aren't going to be a "stop X and you stop the offense"

 

We were that at stretches last year. If teams could shut down Diggs (and a lot made sure they did) it could be an absolute grind. Now, Shakir and Kincaid came along down the stretch and Cook became a revelation. With Samuel, and then a 2nd-3rd round burner then I really think Beane will have the luxury of BPA

My only concern is James "Ronnie Harmon" Cook

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

My only concern is James "Ronnie Harmon" Cook

Now you do not need James "Ronnie Harmon" Cook running that wheel route, Samuel can do it, has done it, and there is a clip of him running that exact route in the thread.

[Mr. WEO]

 

13 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

But can he drop balls like Gabe, that’s what I want to know   Just adds to the in-game excitement!  
 

 

 

 

Knox will still provide that entertainment.

[Gregg]

12 hours ago, bobobonators said:

I think a lot of ppl seem to overlook this fact. I fully expect Kincaid to get a lions share of the targets next season. 
 

Kincaid

Diggs

Samuel

 

sprinkle in Shakir and Knox. 
 

id take a flyer on a rookie WR with insane physical skills but some red flags in the 3rd or 4th rd. 

 

Don't forget to add Cook into the mix as well. Then there is Allen's threat of running. Although I hope he does less of it as he gets older.

[bmur66]

Still need someone to push Diggs for the no.1 reciever spot.

[BillsFan2313]

51 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

No wonder I don't know anything about this guy. He's been Washington's THIRD WR?

 

Inadequate.

 

Or you just don't know as much about football as you thought you did

[boyst]

10 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Then you are saying Diggs shouldn't be outside. Same size and faster than Diggs.

 

Sorry the narrative doesn't hold water. 

diggs runs an elite route tree.

[nucci]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

 

Don't forget to add Cook into the mix as well. Then there is Allen's threat of running. Although I hope he does less of it as he gets older.

The offense improved when Allen started to run again. Needs to continue. Only times he's been injured was hits when throwing, not running

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

People keep saying this but I don't see it. John Brown has career YPC 14.9 and had similar number while in Buffalo. Samuel has 10.7 and it was even less last two years.

 

I am not an expert but it clearly seems that he won't play John Brown's role unless we use him differently than he was used before.

 

Just because a player was used a certain way prior doesn't mean that's all he can do.

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

diggs runs an elite route tree.

So does Ladd.  And you don't know what the exent of Samuel's route tree is.

[HOUSE]

I want some credit, I named 25 different  WRs and Samual was one of them 

[SoonerBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

He seems like a rich man's Shakir who is a little bit more experienced playing boundary WR, and has some juice being used out of the backfield.

 

After sleeping on it, I am fine with that. If there was one thing I held up as why I liked Brady better than Dorsey it's that Brady put an emphasis on scheming against the opponent each week. Against the Cowboys (who had no run defense) and the second Chiefs game (depleted defense, needed as much TOP as possible) he made excellent use of heavy sets. He attacked bad secondaries when he saw them. 

Last offseason I gushed about the possibilities of using a 2 TE set (Knox was the disappointment, not Kincaid) but now I'm seeing the advantage with 3 and 4 WR sets. Trot out Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid and Cook. 

Standard 3WR: already solid and versatile route options

4 "WR" using Kincaid

Bunch formation

 

Put Samuel in the backfield with Cook: There is that "incredibly annoying when used against us" pop handoff McDaniel used against us Week 18 that could go to either, leaving it up to Josh to read. Either can run normally. Play action to one to pass to the other. Motion Kincaid to the slot or split him out to the boundary.

 

Get a true burner X in this draft and the Bills can set up against nearly any defense in the league

A true burner? Faster then the 4.31 Samuel runs?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

A true burner? Faster then the 4.31 Samuel runs?

OK fair enough: More dedicated X receiver. If the team thinks that he can do that full time great, but considering the Kyle Shanahan inspired wrinkles that he ran, the comparison is closer to Deebo Samuel than a traditional #2 boundary WR.

 

That said, he looks about 50/50 and has the speed to take off the top of the defense so that's not an impossibility.

[Gregg]

17 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

Still need someone to push Diggs for the no.1 reciever spot.

 

That is where the draft and #28 comes into play. At least I hope it does.